UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Yu Frey vs. Reed
Elise Reed, DEC
Hurts to even pick this last one I watched Reed kept getting confused where she was and what she was supposed to do.

Santos vs. Munoz Jr.
Daniel Santos, TKO, R3
LMAO with the nicknames..

Miller vs. Klein
Jim Miller, SUB, R2
Can't count out Jim Miller, hopefully he can be on UFC 300

Yu Frey vs. Reed
Jinh Yu Frey, DEC
Will be betting the over 2.5 rounds when it's available.

Off Topic, but I really feel bad for Tim Elliott, as human beings we can have those who do not think clearly or who let ourselves be carried away by passions, but a man who sleeps with the girlfriend/wife of a good friend is a man without no notion of honor or having morals. The worst part is that Tim invested a lot of time and effort in training/coaching his ex-wife and she repaid him by doing that show on their wedding day and I don't mean cheating, I mean the show of reading their votes in front of Tim's Daughter when everything was a farce on her part.
But at the end of the day, the other 2 had humiliating TKO's in their last fights in the UFC and were left without contracts, while Tim Elliott managed to win a TUF season, be a former title challenger against DJ and can continue fighting and making money in the MMA most famous promotion.

The problem with Guram is that he pretty much only fights once a year, but I really like that the UFC is always matchmaking him against fighters in the Top 15 or near the rankings. Hopefully Kutateladze can stay injury-free and in case he wins a fight against another good fighter before the end of 2023, he has excellent striking and good takedown offense and defense, a shame that in almost 3 years in the UFC he has only fought 2 times.

Kara-France vs. Albazi
Amir Albazi, DEC
I think Amir Albazi continues his winning streak,

Arlovski vs. Mayes
Andrei Arlovski, DEC
I think Arlovski's experience gets him the win.

I also like Mendonca as a dog. 

Willy Cat 🔒

Andre Arlovski Decision 🔒

Guram has had a lot of injury’s as of late, he has had to pull out of his last couple fights, that’s probably why he had fought only twice. I expect him to make a statement 

They should put Guram vs Mullarky as the co main,  that the fight I care for on this card

bro, Gordon got flash KO'd by Green a few weeks ago. What???

This looks like the retirement card, lol

Kara-France vs. Albazi
Amir Albazi, DEC
In light of my picks being dog**** recently, I've decided to actually go back and watch a fight of each of these guys. I'm favoring Albazi oh so slightly, and I think the odds and the Tap pick-split reflect the nature of this fight very accurately. One thing that Kai has struggled with throughout his career is potshotting straight punches, which Albazi happens to be very good at doing. Kai bites on feints pretty heavily sometimes and Amir uses the jab as a nice decoy weapon to land a cracking straight right and shift to the left to get an angle on the takedown. Also, Amir's inside low kick from the orthodox stance is a really good mask for his takedown attempts, and he's blazingly fast on the entry. Provided that he doesn't try to have a pure kickboxing match with KKF and actually mixes all of his weapons, I think Albazi will be able to largely stifle him across five rounds.

Miller vs. Gordon
Jim Miller, TKO, R1
Gordon got knocked out less than a month ago. If Miller lands anything looping at all, he's going to torch Jared.

Kutateladze vs. Mullarkey
Guram Kutateladze, TKO, R2
Banger. Love Mullarkey. Unfortunately though, Guram is a sniper and Mullarkey has a tendency of walking through the fire. Won't end well, I think. Could go to a decision.

Miller vs. Gordon
Jim Miller, TKO, R1
Miller needs one good shot to land. Surprised Gordon is fighting this fast. I'd put a few dollars on Miller ML and also Miller by KO

Elliott vs. Altamirano
Tim Elliott, DEC
Definitely not betting for this one to go under 2.5 got flyweights that love the judges

Arlovski vs. Mayes
Andrei Arlovski, DEC
Death taxes and Arlovski by decision

This card is so easy to predict

🇧🇷 parlay 
Lins 
Lacerda 
Mendonca 
Santos 
Zaleski 
Silva. 20$ pays 1000$  lets roll 

I'd be surprised if you get even 1 leg of your goofy parlay correct 

You just lost 20 bucks. Congratulations 

* Edited at 05.21.2023, 10:53 AM ET *

Zaleski vs Nurmagomedov 
Zaleski DEC 
Pretty interesting one here. Abubakar gets a lot of **** for it being as good as his brother, but he is a solid fighter; nothing more, nothing less. He’s much more of a striker, he loves to utilize his jab. He’s also a point fighter, doesn’t hit very hard and uses his jab and leg kicks to outpoint people. His offensive wrestling is shockingly bad but he is a very good grappler. When it does get to the mat, his control is solid but he will find a way to reverse any position you have on him. Zaleski on the other hand, is a guy who’s always been fringe top 15 and is a ferocious striker. He is called capoeira for good reason; he throws insane spinning **** like it’s nothing. He loves the capoeira kick or spinning heel kicks the most, but he can fight very technically if needs be. His boxing is also pretty clean; great counter puncher, insane power in his hands. My two worried about zaleski here is his grappling, and how he does without ostarine. On paper zaleski has a 66% tdd, which isn’t amazing but respectable nonetheless. However, when you look into it, it’s 66% on less than 10 attempts. Nobody really tries to grapple him and when he has faced someone who does, they usually get him down. Now, Abubakar isn’t really a great wrestler, but since zaleski’s grappling is most untested, I do worry. The second worry is the ostarine; zaleski has been sidelined for a while for a positive PED test. He’s getting up there in age & if he’s off the juice I worry we could see a totally different, washed zaleski. He seems to be in good shape tho so I think he will be fine. Also, good chance Abubakar pulls out; he’s a professional duck

Castaneda vs Mendonca 
Castaneda KO RD 2
Sleeper FOTN right here. Gotta be serious deja vu for Castaneda; he lost to a chute boxe guy then right again faces another one. Also, Mendonca has a shut manager cuz this is a pretty nightmarish two ufc fights. Everyone is super high on Mendonca for some reason & I honestly don’t get it. Maybe it’s that he got Javid in his debut, maybe it’s that cool ko he got on dwcs, but I don’t think hype is justified on this kid. He’s fights like your average chute boxe fighter, but has a more well rounded skillset; he can do a little bit of everything & mixes it well together. However, he can also be exploited in just about every area. He can be taken down, he can be controlled, and the worst of them all, he is a punching bag. Now, he obviously throws heat back, but man his striking defense is trash. No head movement and marches forward taking many to give a few. And no, I’m not just saying this because of the Javid fight, you watch any of his regional fights and it’s the same thing. Now Castaneda on the other hand is a death by thousand cuts type of fighter. He’s pretty solid everywhere & pushes and insane pace and tries to break you. Normally, he has insane cardio but what people may not know is that he gassed last fight due to bronchitis. Obviously, it’s not an excuse for losing, but it would explain why his normally fantastic cardio didn’t hold up like it normally would. If he wasn’t sick, I think he was very well on his way to a finish in what was a dominant performance. Now that he’s fully healthy & knowing how well he was doing before gassing, I think he’s got this in the bag. I’m sorry tapology, but I’m not sold on Mendonca at all, he gets hyped far too much on here

Arlovski vs mayes 
Mayes KO RD 3
Hate this fight so much; glad ufc has seen the light & finally realized to bury these ****** hw fights in the prelims. Especially this one because, my god this is going to be a snoozer. All arlovski fights are anyways, since he has adapted to his point fighting style, but Mayes iq is low enough that he’s gonna give andrei the exact fight that he wants. As I said previously, Andre has translated his vet experience into his game & now fights a very boring point fight style. He’s able to win a lot of fights purely on taking advantage of how **** the majority of hws are. If you clinch them or fight passively, they have no idea what to do. Now mayes is frustrating because he looks the part & has a lot of very good physical qualities, but this is all paired with the worst fight iq on the planet. Mayes doesn’t come in with game plans and fights whatever fight you want him to. I mean, this guy just willingly engaged in the clinch with Sakai & got *****ed the whole fight. I’ll never forget his Hamdy fight, where he was clearly winning, then trips over his own two feet & reminded Hamdy that he was an Olympian. He then proceeds to get wrestle****** the rest of the fight. I honestly don’t even know why I’m licking mayes, but I have a weird feeling about this one. Arlovski is 44 & has insane milage on his body, at some point he’s not gonna be able to win his little game. I just worry given the size, atheltiscm, and youth advantage that mayes will find the chin. I mean, that’s a tough ask since he may very well be one of the stupidest fighters on the roster, but I have some faith he can get it done. I’ll probably end up settling on arlovski, but I really don’t want to trust someone that old & who is barely scraping wins together against the worst of the worst


Santos vs Munoz 
Santos KO RD 1
I was coming around to the santos side despite originally picking munoz. I am a little concerned about this getting rebooked so quick, since santos had to pull out (don’t know what for). After rewatching his fights, Ik definitely more impressed with santos, but I still have a decent amount of questions about him. I’ll talk about the Castaneda fight more later, but if John didn’t gas then we’re looking at santos being 0-2 in the ufc & having a totally different perception of him. Now, he did win that fight but for that majority of it, he was taking an ass whooping. Santos doesn’t really care if he gets hit and brings that classic chute boxe thai style that we all love. He’s got insane cardio and pressure & has the ability to fight at an intense pace for three rounds. I was actually very impressed with his bjj against John; he was rocked bad but was still able to use his bjj to keep John off of him. I think he wins this fight utilizing that same pressure. We saw against ludovit that munoz is really uncomfortable on the back foot. He was winning the training exchanges, but it’s pretty easy to win on the back foot when your opponent won’t throw anything. Despite that, he was just very uncomfortable with the pressure and had to shoot takedowns to keep ludovit off of him. Muniz is a decent striker in his own right, but nothing special. Just decent boxing technique. He’s gonna be very uncomfortable with santos pressure. I’m curious to see the grappling as well because if Santos’s bjj is as good as it looked in the Castaneda fight, then munoz is in a lot of trouble


Frey vs Reed 
Frey Sub RD 2
When frey opened the favorite, I was shocked since I thought I was crazy for thinking she wins. I mean, it’s hard to be confident in either really; both are such disappointments. Maybe I just iverrated her, but I always thought frey was decent. Solid point fighter, really good distance management, and a killer right hand. However, she has been in bad form recently. She had that horrible robbery loss against vanessa, then got absolutely smoked by viana. If this was a men’s fight, I’d be very worried about frey’s chin, since that’s the type of ko that changes you, but she’s fighting freaking Elise reed so I don’t think we have to worry too much. Now Elise reed on the other hand, is a massive disappointment. Every win, she looks better & looks like she turned a new leaf, then someone will take her to the ground & expose that she has almost 0 grappling ability. I mean, we’ve seen bad grapplers but holy **** reed is bad. I’ve never seen someone get finished with such ease anytime the fight hits the mat. It was embarrassing watching loma get her down and sub her with ease. Now, on the feet I honestly think reed is the better striker. Way better movement, speed advantage, and honestly just a striking advantage; she’s got a karate base with super clean kicks and decent power for wmma. However, there’s two reasons I’m going frey. 1 is the obvious grappling upside. Frey is an idiot and don’t grapple as much as she should, but I know she’s a black belt and can grapple decently well, she also may want to grapple after getting slept so badly last time out. 2, is that she trains with Sam hughes, who not only beat reed, but pretty much destroyed her with grappling. You gotta think frey is gonna utilize that same gameplan; it’s such an easy and obvious path to victory. However, hard to be confident in either side because frey has dissapointed me time and time again



Lacerda vs Blackshear 
Lacerda DEC
Man blackshear has the worst manager ever. I think he’s really talented, but also super green & got to the ufc too early. The worst part is, ufc won’t give him any easy fights to build him up. After the Zalal fight it’s just been killer after killer. Now, blackshear actually has a lot of talent. Firstly, he has a massive frame for the division and uses it well. His striking isn’t amazing, but because he’s so lengthy, he can cover a lot of distance with his strikes. He uses a lot of oblique and leg kicks but also will use a jab or Superman punch to keep the distance. However I think he’s primarily a grappler. His bjj is really nice. Super active guard and loves to create scrambles. The one thing I don’t like about his grappling is he often finds himself in an unfavorable position or fighting off a sub attempt. Now, this is likely because he knows how to defend & is a great grappler, but at the ufc level I don’t like to see that. Especially against a nova uniao black belt. Lacerda is quite the opposite and is very much ufc ready. I was shocked that he managed to beat stamann on the feet (I know he lost but that was a robbery) despite being a primary grappler. In fact, he showed an insane amount of improvements; just his last fight before the ufc, he was struggling on the feet. But against stamann he looked great. Threw lots of body kicks and leg kicks, while also showing off really solid boxing technique; lots of body work too. Great defense in the pocket too; he was trading with stamann and avoiding damage for the most part. He didn’t even have to showcase his bjj, which is sick. He’s a much more traditional bjj guy, using things like heel hooks to sweep on top, or omoplata reversals. I think he is a better grappler than Damon and better striker. Funny enough, Damon is the ufc vet in this situation, but I still think he’s too inexperienced to beat Lacerda



Grishin vs Lins 
Grishin KO RD 2
Bit of a weird one to rebook; this isn’t exactly what you would call an impactful fight nor is it necessarily gonna be interesting. Starting with grishin, he’s just an ultra vet. He spent the majority of his career outside the ufc & brings that experience to the octagon. He’s a point fighter with solid hands, good counter striking, and solid tdd. He can be taken down, but his defense iverall is pretty good. Then on the other hand, we have lins who is such a weird fighter to me. He came into the ufc & was a massive dissapointment. He quickly went 0-2, then was sidelined for 3 years due to various issues. When he finally came back, he looked like a totally different person. Not exactly skill wise, but physique wise. Lins is a limited but effective striker. His main weapon is a blitz that’s surprisingly effective. Maybe it’s effective because he throws lots of fast and accurate punches right down the middle. He has a decent crack to his punches as well. However, that’s where the good qualities end. His chin has never been great & his striking defense isn’t much better. He also gassed hard against prachnio. Part of that was due to the pace he set but still, he fights like that everytime so gotta assume he doesn’t have the best cardio. I think lins is gonna start fast, maybe give grishin some early issues but then tire late and lose to the better striker

KKF vs Albazi 
KKF DEC 
I love this fight but man is this a difficult one to pick. The main reason is albazi; he’s clearly talented & deserves this main event, but every top 15 he’s been booked against has pulled out, so it’s hard to gauge his skills. He is predominantly a grappler, but he can do it all. He’s improved his striking a lot. He is pretty technical & will also give consistently different looks. His grappling is phenomenal; sick back takes & just dominant control in the ground. Now kkf on the other hand is always distracted. His record isn’t great and he has some bad losses, but this dude is a beast. One of the hardest hitters of the weight class & also the best anti wrestler. He has very slick kickboxing. When he lets his hands go he gets bad reactions from his opponents with almost every shot landed. I also think his sub defense is underrated. Yeah he has 3 losses by sub, but his defense is actually really good. What does concern me is how easily bontorin and askarov took his back, if albazi does that, I don’t think kkf is getting out. Really close fight but I lean kkf



Caceres vs Pineda 
Caceres KO RD 2
This is a banger fight but also makes no sense from a rankings standpoint. Caceres is top 15 and Pineda is a guy who hovers around the top 25, but definitely doesn’t deserve a ranked shot. What’s so unique about Pineda is his finishing ability. He doesn’t have to be the best guy anywhere, but he just knows how to find openings and capitalize. His striking is weird, he fights with a weird swaggy boxing style. His hands are super low and he’s very leg kick heavy. His actual hands aren’t clean but he has a bomb in that right hand. His bjj is nasty too. He’s just so adept on the ground and if you make one mistake, he will capitalize and sub you. Caceres on the other hand is an ultra vet. He doesn’t have a good record, but has turned all of his experience into skill. His striking is so unorthodox; you just never know what he’s gonna throw (see the erosa fight for example) and he has a super high output. Despite looming really good in his last fight, on second rewatch i was honestly not as impressed. He did well because lutz is a nothing burger with poor power, but he was still getting touched up a lot in that fight. I just can’t shake his previous two fights against fili and cub; when he started to get hit, his gameplan just went out the window. Given the awkwardness of Caceres & the huge size advantage he has, I feel a ko incoming. Idk why but I just do


Miller vs Gordon 
Gordon DEC 
I actually like this fight a lot more than the original. Both these guys are super crafty vets. My main concern is Gordon’s chin; it’s never ever been good but man he’s returning quick after that brutal ko loss to Bobby. Now, miller isn’t a power puncher, but he can crack. Jim has a lot of milage on him but he uses his vet experience to win him fights. However, Gordon is just as vet as him & is a deceptively good striker. He’s also a really solid grappler in his own right, along with being a cardio machine. Again, I really really worry about that chin, but Gordon has miller covered everywhere else

Eliott vs Altamirano 
Eliott SUB RD 2
Yesterday we had divorced dern, now we have new mythical fighter; divorced Elliott. The silver lining in all this bs is it seems to have lit a new fire under Tim’s ass. All he is talking about is wanting to get in there & perform. He even said regardless of outcome he will fight mokaev in Boston after this. This is a weird matchup because Victor isn’t a good fighter at all reslly, but he has fantastic cardio and doesn’t **** off, so if he can deal with the takedown, tim could have some issues. However, just skill for skill, Tim clears by quite a lot. Funky is the best way to describe him; there’s no real rhyme or reason for what he does. He is an awkward but effective striker. So is Victor so I think these striking exhnacges will be interesting. Tim is the better striker but both these guys are gonna throw down on the feet. The wrestling is where Tom should dominate. Victor has always struggled with his tdd. He’s improved it in the ufc, but he’s still getting takendown multiple times every fight. Tim is honestly one of the best wrestlers at 125. One thing I worry about, is he’s gonna come out guns blazing trying to finish victor, and then he has a cardio dump a la royval vs Elliott. Besides that, I think he’s far superior to victor


Silva vs Souza 
Souza DEC
Really interesting one here. So silva is getting an identical style matchup as last time, but her opponent is way better than zombie girl so I’m very confused as to why only 8% are picking her? On paper souza looks really bad; not really any good wins and all loses are really bad (at least they were to ufc level comp, but still getting finished is a bad look). However, she has improved a ton since those fights. The biggest improvement is the striking defense. Part of the reason she has those losses is she played 0 defense in the past. I’m pretty sure she’s got a boxing background because she fights like it. Really sharp jab, good body work, tight guard, good counter punching. She likes to keep the pressure on and piece you up on the feet. She’s recently integrated a lot more leg kicks and her footwork is a lot better as well. I’m actually really impressed with her tdd. She’s short and stocky, so that low center of gravity helps out a lot, but she also has a really impressive sprawl. When she has been grounded, she does lie on her back, but she actively tries to get up. Karine on the other hand, idk what to think. She is a finisher which is rare for wmma, but she’s not a good fighter at all. She hits very hard, but is an awful striker. She’s super stiff, doesn’t move her head, doesn’t throw, and hates pressure. When she does land, it always garners a big reaction & usually results in a knockdown. Her bjj is very creative & she has a super strong squeeze, however, the issue is getting it down to the mat. Her wrestling is not good & most of her subs come from her back as it is. Souza is not a wrestler so silva is gonna have to be the one engaging. If she can’t get the td, the Souza will piece her up. Not crazy confident, but I don’t trust silva

Kutateladze vs Mullarkey 
Kutateladze DEC 
It’s hilarious to me that mullarkey is a guy who always hovers around the top 30, and yet he’s going to be gurams easiest ufc fight yet. Shows you the level of competition he’s fought. Guram is talented enough to be ranked within the top 10, but the issue is he never fights. Sometimes it’s an injury and other times he just doesn’t want to fight, but when he does, man it’s impressive. He does such a good blend of mixed martial arts that you don’t see often. He’s predominantly a striker; he hits really hard, he’s good leg kicks, good boxing, and loves to make it a technical striking match. His wrestling is pretty good but his bjj is awesome. He utilizes a rubber guard on bottom and will create scrambles off of submission attempts. Jamie is a really solid fighter but has a clear ceiling due to his style. He’s a brawler and can’t help himself. He loves to make fights dirty. Jamie throws with reckless abandon, and when he smells blood he goes off trying to kill you. Jamie has a great chin, but he is far too reliant on it. He can take a hit but eventually damage starts to add up. He also has decent wrestling but nothing special. I have a very hard time seeing how guram loses this. I think this is his easiest ufc fight yet by a significant margin

Grishin vs. Lins
Philipe Lins, DEC
super close fight. deciding factor is grishins weight cut, jetlag, and age. but winner should get top 15