UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Jim Miller is now fighting Jesse Butler? Hm.. 

* Edited at 06.01.2023, 9:04 PM ET *

Whoever cleared Gordon to even be scheduled for this date should be investigated lol

No competent Dr is going to let you rack up more brain damage after being KO'd stiffed just a few weeks back.

* Edited at 06.01.2023, 9:21 PM ET *

Dammit! I didn't look at the predictions beforehand and I still picked the favorite for 12 out of the 13 fights (Blackshear)...

Miller vs. Butler
Jim Miller, SUB, R1
37 y/o Luis Lena caught Butler's kick early and got a decently tight Guillotine Choke. Miller is gonna maul this Featherweight.

* Edited at 06.01.2023, 11:46 PM ET *

At first I thought Gafurov vs Castaneda was a strict 50/50 fight but now I slightly lean Gafurov, though I wish I could've found more tape for either of them. About 65% of Gafurov's striking seems to be overhands and spinning back kicks which is concerning to say the least, but it's offset by the fact that he's fast as ****. He has good power, the chin to go the distance with Lineker, and enough grappling to bring Castaneda down (who doesn't have the greatest TDD) should he need to. Cardio is probably an issue given the nature of his style and the short notice, but I think he can do enough. I hope I'm not suffering from "ov" bias lol

* Edited at 06.02.2023, 12:05 AM ET *

Who the **** is jesse Butler?.... Miller Inside distance???

Miller vs. Butler
Jim Miller, DEC
Butler is a decent fighter but miller has all the advantages. Butler throws with some power & has started to trust his hands a lot more, but he’s low output & doesn’t have the greatest defense. Miller is a great counter striker & has all that experience so I give him the advantage standing. On the ground it’s not close. Butler is a decent grappler but has godawful takedown defense and willingly plays off of his back. Jim can beat him wherever the fight goes but I think he’s just gonna get easy takedowns and ride out the rounds. Maybe he gets a sub but butler has decent bjj so not sure

If anyone still want to join, we start second season fresh tomorrow, by the way:

https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/74005  

Kai Kara France, Dec
Albazi's only path to victory is takedown and control.  He's a BJJ black belt with 56% finished by SUB.  Kara-France's strength of schedule is far superior to Albazi's and Albazi has never been in a 5 round fight.  Kara-France has an 87% takedown defense rate, so if Albazi cant secure the TD, he's going to get pieced up rounds 3, 4 and 5.  This is a trap fight for Albazi.

Pineda, Sub
Im conflicted with this one.  Caceres is clearly the better striker, but he has serious holes in his ground game - Pineda is a BJJ black belt and Careces has been subbed 7 times - there's a clear path to victory for Pineda.  Against Lutz, I was sure Pineda's layoff and coming off PEDs would affect him negatively.  He obviously used that time to sharpen his skills.  Careres needs to keep his striking tight, and he tends to get wild.  He does have the height and reach advantage, but I just feel Pineda is gonna wrap up a RNC, and pretty easily too if it happens.  Pineda's takedown accuracy is amongst the worst on the card at 24%, but persistence makes up for it.  Careres isn't a finisher, while Pineda has a 100% finish rate...There's no threat of a KO of SUB from Caceres, so Pineda can be aggressive.

Butler, Dec
Jesse Butler is a tough dude.  But 2 days' notice.  At least a 20-pound weight cut.  If he can beat those demons and looks good on the scale (its a lightweight fight - he fights at featherweight), then he can not only compete against Miller, but maybe steal a couple rounds.  Butler has pretty good striking and a Brown belt in BJJ.  Miller is 39 and will be looking to get inside to secure a takedown, exposing his chin.  A few unsuccessful attempts and Butler counters...But the weight cut first.

Altamirano, Dec
I dont really understand this line at +150.  Altamirano is younger, has a 4" reach advantage, has a strike differential of 1.5 - highest on the card - significantly better strike accuracy and has a BJJ Brown belt compared to Elliott's Blue belt. 

Silva, SUB
Souza has a nice record of beating nobodies. Last 5 fighters had a combined record of 26-20.  Her last 3 fights went the distance.  It's tough to get the easy KOs against opponents who are more skilled and durable.  Silva is absolutely devastating on the mat, but horrible on her feet.  She's obviously going to attempt to take the fight to the mat, and Souza will be trying to survive 3 rounds.

Mullarkey, KO
Naimov steps in on short notice and has a 4" reach disadvantage.  He has zero takedown attempts, a -2.4 strike differential, a BJJ Blue belt whose last fight was on Tuff N Uff...He's stepping in against a UFC vet and BJJ Black belt - Mullarkey is going to do whatever he feels like doing to Naimov.  The DFS price is outstanding too.

Zaleski dos Santos, Dec
Abubakar isn't the best Nurmagomedov, but he has good strike defense and excellent takedown defense.  That being said, Zaleski dos Santos is the superior striker and a BJJ black belt, with a spinning wheel kick KO against Sean Strickland. 

The rest...

Gafurov, TKO
Arlovski, Dec
Santos, KO
Reed, Dec
Lacerda, Dec
Grishin, Dec

Albazis only path to victory is the takedown... 🤣😂🤣😆😂🤣

everyone is saying Albazi never been in a 5 round fight, like KKF has. KKF never been in a 4th round either

Kara-France vs. Albazi
Amir Albazi, DEC
I think Kara-France is a great anti-wrestler, but Albazi is as legit as it gets. I think this'll end up being a super close fight, and Albazi's takedowns will give him the edge on the scorecards.

Caceres vs. Pineda
Daniel Pineda, SUB, R3
I think Caceres genuinely dominates this fight early, scoring a knockdown and an almost finish. I think Pineda takes it though, and finds a guillotine on a gassed Caceres late.

Miller vs. Butler
Jim Miller, SUB, R2
Butler is not UFC ready, and he's fighting a legend of the sport. I think Miller figures him out in the first, and finds a finish in the second.

Elliott vs. Altamirano
Tim Elliott, DEC
I think Elliott should dominate this fight everywhere, but it'll still be a fun scrap.

Silva vs. Souza
Karine Silva, SUB, R2
I think Silva's Jiu-Jitsu is pretty legit, I think she finds a sub here.

Mullarkey vs. Naimov
Jamie Mullarkey, TKO, R2
Mullarkey should crumble Naimov early in the second, Naimov is not ready for the UFC yet.

Zaleski vs. Nurmagomedov
Elizeu Zaleski, DEC
I think Zaleski should stuff the takedowns and win the striking exchanges to win a decision.

Castañeda vs. Gafurov
Muin Gafurov, TKO, R2
I think Castaneda will look good to start, but start to crumble under Gafurov's volume and pressure.

Arlovski vs. Mayes
Andrei Arlovski, DEC
Arlovski should run this fight at his pace and cruise to an easy decision.

Santos vs. Munoz Jr.
Daniel Santos, TKO, R2
Santos is going to walk Munoz down and TKO him with pressure and volume.

Yu Frey vs. Reed
Elise Reed, DEC
I think Reed should dominate this fight on the feet, however if this fight plays out on the ground, Frey should win handily.

Lacerda vs. Blackshear
Luan Lacerda, SUB, R1
Lacerda is a top 20 guy in my eyes, I think he subs Blackshear quickly.

Grishin vs. Lins
Maxim Grishin, DEC
I think Grishin is an underrated fighter, and he should win a fairly dominant decision over Lins.

This dude really faded Carceres than 1 of his reasons was he's been subbed 7 times...

Like Pineda hasn't been submitted 6 times 😂😂 

* Edited at 06.02.2023, 3:05 AM ET *

Miller vs. Butler
Jim Miller, SUB, R2
Young angry Butler might be a tougher fight than Jared Concussed Gordon... I still got Ageless Miller tho.

@evan23  what makes lacerda a top 20?? he couldn't beat stamann who isn't a top 20... definetly a closer fight than you think, also dont think hell get a sub, blacksheer never been finished and farid is much better than lacerda

Sirs, who you got in Lin vs Grishin 

@idcp that stamann fight was a ribbery. Lacerda clearly beat him

Miller vs. Butler
Jesse Butler, DEC
Considering these factors, I believe Jesse Butler's combination of grappling skills, control, and ability to push the pace will give him the edge in this fight.

@sir yaomungus 

I was leaning Grishin originally but i'm going with Lins. Grishin looked old and slow against William Knight, who was 12 lbs overweight. Lins has looked better recently, with wins over Prachnio and OSP. Yeah OSP is old but dudes tough and Lins just layed into him. I just don't see Grishin keeping up a pace with Lins, and won't land nearly as many combos as Lins will. I don't thin Lins will finish though. I'm thinking 29-28,29-28,30-27 Lins Unanimous Dec