UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Who are you taking as the lock of the week for this card? Taking Nascimento personally

My quick picks and favorite bets for those interested: https://oddsmokermma.com/2023/05/19/ufc-vegas-73-dern-vs-hill-quick-picks-predictions-favorite-bets/

Rah what would you do to me if you were mod 

Promotion 👏 👏 👏 

Dern vs. Hill
Dern, SUB
Leaning Dern here since, according to her, she's finally realized you have to at least try and win rounds in MMA instead of having tunnel vision on submitting your opponent. I think she gets Hill out of there in the 3rd or 4th round if she is true to those words and remains patient. Skill for skill her jiu jitsu is superior to Hills striking, which actually is quite good. I think  Hill would need absolutely everything to go right to win a 5 round decision here. Neither fighter has had success in a main event and it's easy to lean Hill here if you think this fight goes the distance, but I could even see Dern doing enough to win 3 rounds if she's true to her word. I just don't think it gets that far if she genuinely leans into her skills and waits for the right opportunities to go for submissions. Hill has a lot of experience but she doesn't have many notable wins and isn't a finisher. While she doesn't fight like she's 38, it's just very hard to trust an older .500 fighter who seems to consistently lose close fights (1/5 in split decisions). Derns lack of progression in other areas is frustrating because her jiu jitsu is so good, but it's easy to forget she only just turned 30 because she's already accumulated so much good experience. 

Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez
Hernandez, DEC
Very, very tough fight for me to pick because I'm such a big Fluffy fan but it's genuinely hard to pick against him here when he's so good at many things that Edmen is terrible at. I think if Fluffy survives the first ~3 minutes of this fight he probably cruises. I think it's pretty obvious at this point Shahbazyan was extremely over-rated after finishing Brad Tavares but he's still a very good striker. Fluffy will have to watch the kicks to the body but I just think he has way more paths to victory.

Ducote vs. Godinez
Ducote, DEC
Full disclosure that this is just a guess. I can't pick a Loopy fight correctly to save my life (1/6) but I also probably cloud my own judgement to an extent because I think she's over-rated.

Fialho vs. Buckley
Buckley, KO/TKO
After initially being super confident in this pick, I'm a little worried we finally get a more patient Fialho against a super game opponent. Fialho throws hammers and actually has good striking. His Achilles heel is that he just death gasses when he doesn't immediately finish someone. Buckley didn't cut to get to MW and is a good athlete so I lean towards the idea he has at least 2 good rounds in him at WW. While it's tempting to be contrarian here, its simply too hard for me to forget how good Buckley looked against a really talented MW contender like Imavov. Fialho hasn't really beaten anyone notable.

Johnson vs. Ferreira
Ferreira, SUB
If Ferreira has enough left in the tank I honestly don't think this will be close.

Maheshate vs. Borshchev
Borshchev, DEC
Close fight where I think Slava just lands a little more volume. Could see him getting a later TKO stoppage but I think this fight is probably even enough that neither guy gets finished. Slava's striking is really, really good and probably carries him here. 

Kowalkiewicz vs. Demopoulos
Demopoulos, DEC
Just leaning into the younger fighter that's trending upward here. A little concerned about the weight miss but I still think Demopoulos wins a close decision here. Karolina has had 4 split decisions go her way on top of being Jessica Penne's only finish in the UFC. She's an impossible fighter to trust.

Cosce vs. Urbina
Urbina, KO/TKO
Extremely low confidence here cause I've seen nothing to suggest either guys belong in the UFC but Cosce looked about as bad as a fighter can look on the scales. Neither guy is very active so not a lot to go on here. I'll say Cosce starts off well with the wrestling and then death gasses. I could also see him just kind of man-handling Urbina to the ground and finishing him with the one burst of energy he probably has for this entire fight. 

Latifi vs. Nascimento
Latifi, DEC
The Sledgehammer sure seems past it but is very hard to finish. Nascimento is pretty average and I just don't see him doing enough to convincingly win 2 rounds. Latifi probably has enough left in the tank to clinch his way to one more win. Going to assume this fight was left off the main card (the UFC loves making low level heavyweight fights the co-main on weaker cards) because it projects to be a snooze fest. Two guys that barely beat heavyweight Tanner Boser fighting each other. Woof. 

Hooper vs. Fiore
Hooper, SUB
Levels. Fiore has a lot of skill but he might have been signed to early.

Leonardo vs. Silva
Silva, KO/TKO
Odds are slightly comical but this shouldn't be close.

Sato vs. Gorimbo
Gorimbo, DEC
Neither guy is very good but Sato seems pretty much KO or bust and I don't think he lands that shot he needs due to Gorimbo's length. Low confidence pick here because Gorimbo seems like he's pretty much on the borderline of being a UFC caliber fighter, but that honestly might be enough to beat someone as one dimensional as Sato. 

I won't be surprised if Shahbazyan/Hernandez finishes ITD but I also don't want to discredit the fact that Edmen can continue to improve in other facets of MMA. I definitely don't want to ignore the fact that he finally got the monkey off his back and got not just a win but a finish in his last fight. Having that confidence again could be huge for him. I don't think it's impossible this fight goes the distance if Edmen can keep a decent portion of this fight on the feet. 

It's just soooo hard for me to not pick Fluffy. That guy is a ******* gangster.

* Edited at 05.20.2023, 12:07 PM ET *

any good picks besides silva?

Dern vs. Hill
Angela Hill, DEC
Dern is hot, but I already chose a hot fighter in loopy so Hill decision.

Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez, SUB, R3
Fluffy is gonna put the pace on him and sub him late into round 3.

Ducote vs. Godinez
Lupita Godinez, DEC
Loopy SZN.

Fialho vs. Buckley
Andre Fialho, TKO, R2
I think they're gonna stare at eachother all of round 1 and the winner is decided in a heated exchange in round 2.

Johnson vs. Ferreira
Michael Johnson, TKO, R1
The menace puts his lights out in 1.

Maheshate vs. Borshchev
Viacheslav Borshchev, TKO, R2
Maheshate hasn't lost by KO, but Slava on the feet is a murderer so R2 KO.

Kowalkiewicz vs. Demopoulos
Karolina Kowalkiewicz, DEC
Kowalkiewicz has the longer reach, so logically she should have this decision in the bag.

Cosce vs. Urbina
Orion Cosce, DEC
Cosce might be smaller but he got the dog in him.

Latifi vs. Nascimento
Ilir Latifi, DEC
Latifi retiring on a decision win.

Hooper vs. Fiore
Nick Fiore, TKO, R1
Chase, I think the christmas tree color record ends here.

Leonardo vs. Silva
Natália Silva, DEC
Natalia will get it done by decision.

Sato vs. Gorimbo
Takashi Sato, TKO, R1
I don't forsee grappling, so the Sato underdog is alive.

Dern vs. Hill
Angela Hill, DEC
49-46, 48-47, 47-48 Split dec but clear for Hill.

Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez
Edmen Shahbazyan, TKO, R2
Apart of me thinks this is a solid matchup for Edmen. He isn't quite as dangerous but isn’t nearly as vulnerable. TKO in the 2nd body shot to ground and pound.

Ducote vs. Godinez
Lupita Godinez, SUB, R2
Rear Naked Choke after a scramble exchange.

Fialho vs. Buckley
Joaquin Buckley, TKO, R1
Someone is getting KOd. Knee in prep for a takedown.

Johnson vs. Ferreira
Michael Johnson, DEC
Im heavily leaning Diego here. But i want Michael to win and so I’m going with a FOTN performance from both men. 29-28x3 Uni

Maheshate vs. Borshchev
Maheshate, TKO, R2
TKO elbow rocks Viacheslav. GnP finish but ugly.

Kowalkiewicz vs. Demopoulos
Vanessa Demopoulos, DEC
29-28, 30-27x2 Uni.

Cosce vs. Urbina
Gilbert Urbina, DEC
30-27, 29-28, 28-29 split

Latifi vs. Nascimento
Rodrigo Nascimento, TKO, R2
Huge jabs affect Ilir and then he cant see a huge cross coming his way. Tko in the second punches to ground and pound

Hooper vs. Fiore
Chase Hooper, SUB, R3
Rear naked choke after a back and forth but ugly fight.

Leonardo vs. Silva
Natália Silva, TKO, R2
Full mount tko

Sato vs. Gorimbo
Themba Gorimbo, DEC
29-28x2 28-29 split

Dern vs. Hill
Mackenzie Dern, DEC
i'm not sure angela will be able to keep enough distance to avoid the clinch nor am i sure that she'll move forward enough to take rounds.

Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez, SUB, R2
not sure i trust edmen's tdd here, fluffy has been putting everyone down the mat and shouldn't be too outclassed standing.

Ducote vs. Godinez
Emily Ducote, DEC
i'll say ducote can sprawl and brawl and stay mobile.

Fialho vs. Buckley
Andre Fialho, TKO, R2
could be a fun r1 if it doesn't turn into a staring contest. i'm gonna take a chance here and say fialho stays calmer in the fire.

Johnson vs. Ferreira
Michael Johnson, DEC
not sure diego finds the td's he'll need and i think he's probably outgunned on the feet.

Maheshate vs. Borshchev
Viacheslav Borshchev, DEC
seems like both guys wanna push the striking, not sure if either will change it up and try to drag it down to end up on top. might be a lot of staring until some explosive moments and i guess slava can avoid the big shots, move, and counter?

Kowalkiewicz vs. Demopoulos
Karolina Kowalkiewicz, DEC
vanessa may very well initiate some early scrambles and jump on the back, but otherwise i think karolina can work a ranged attack gameplan and sprawl.

Cosce vs. Urbina
Gilbert Urbina, DEC
haven't been impressed by cosce's tank so even though i think he'll be able to get gilbert down early i'm not sure he'll be able to keep the pace.

Latifi vs. Nascimento
Rodrigo Nascimento, DEC
i think rodrigo is gonna have a hard time taking latifi down, fightmetric says he's yet to be taken down in his ufc career, but i gotta wonder if ilir will be able to get rodrigo on his back and/or maybe rodrigo will be content to play off his back and give away rounds. if it stays standing, i don't think ilir throws enough volume.

Hooper vs. Fiore
Chase Hooper, SUB, R2
chase doesn't have the td game of rebecki, but fiore's competition has been extremely questionable and i'm not sure he'll stick to a striking gameplan and disengage from clinches. if chase loses though, they should line him up with kron at whatever weightclass they agree to.

Leonardo vs. Silva
Natália Silva, DEC
thinking silva wins this on volume if she can stay off her back.

Sato vs. Gorimbo
Themba Gorimbo, DEC
no confidence in either, but i'd rather bet on the potential themba has than expect sato to come out evolved. takashi has been taken down by all of his ufc opponents that have a chin and it seems themba will try and push that kinda fight.

ty Rah

Hooper vs. Fiore
Chase Hooper, SUB, R1
I don't trust anyone with 2 wins over Jay Ellis

gorimbo dec

do you have an 5'10 asian v a 6'1 black man, it's kinda obvious. more obvious than that if sato was canadian 

NO WAY IT IS 5'10 vs 6'1

Dern vs. Hill
Mackenzie Dern, SUB, R3
6-3

Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez, SUB, R2
8-1

Ducote vs. Godinez
Lupita Godinez, DEC
6-3

Fialho vs. Buckley
Joaquin Buckley, TKO, R2
9-0

Johnson vs. Ferreira
Diego Ferreira, DEC
8-1

Maheshate vs. Borshchev
Viacheslav Borshchev, DEC
6-3

Kowalkiewicz vs. Demopoulos
Karolina Kowalkiewicz, DEC
7-2

Cosce vs. Urbina
Gilbert Urbina, DEC
7-2

Latifi vs. Nascimento
Rodrigo Nascimento, DEC
8-1

Hooper vs. Fiore
Nick Fiore, TKO, R3
7-2

Leonardo vs. Silva
Natália Silva, TKO, R2
9-0

Sato vs. Gorimbo
Themba Gorimbo, TKO, R2
9-0

Picture is taken at an angle and Sato appears a little more in the foreground. Hard to tell but I wouldn't be surprised if Gorimbo is 3 inches taller.

Let's go Karolina ❤️ 🍀 

Themba is listed 6 foot flat on Sherdog no way is there more than 1.5 to 2 inches between them.