UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Swag Smith is gonna run a 4.4 40 right through the lard. Ez 90 second knockout and it will be a hilarious one

I watch the press confrence highlight and my opinion is that they're some annoying fighter on the card, Espacally Sterling a and Belal, I think Cejudo is also annoying but in a likable way, He weird with that as he the only fighter like that IMO

Muhammad vs. Burns
Belal Muhammad
higher ranked fighter - on win streak - younger larger fighter - opp has finishing capability - durable/cardio advantage [2 unit]

Evloev vs. Lopes
Movsar Evloev
opp is russian - ufc debut - younger/larger fighter - [pass]

Sterling vs. Cejudo
Henry Cejudo, TKO, R3
after weeks of changing my pick each day i have watched almost every single fight for these 2 twice and what i have is Sterling gets hit to much his been clipped by almost everyone henry was on a 3 fight win KO streak when he left and dismembered a juiced up TJ the bloke has done some crazy stuff in the sport and gave DJ some of his best work to date i think if we get 3/4 of the Cejudo who left the UFC he wins this .aljo hates getting hit we have seen it and i think even Henry would have some questions about how his cardio will hold up after 3 years out of the game so if he hurts aljo i see him jumping on the first . one again such a hard fight to pick but i love to gamble some may call it degenarite but after watching that much tape the past two week a bet needed to be placed and that bet is $100 Cejudo KO 1,2,3 Returning $625

Muhammad vs. Burns
Gilbert Burns, TKO, R5
enough coin flip fight i think Belal is good but can he go 5 rounds with burns without being put to sleep when seen Khazat wobbled by burns and Usman i think this fight might play out on the feet as the khazat fight did and dont see Belal surving it . maybe he can but im confident in burns here i just dont know how he gets it done the pick here will be round 5 KO the bet will be $50 Burns KO Returning $250 but do also like Burn Decison Play so ill see

Andrade vs. Yan
Jéssica Andrade, TKO, R2
Yan is good but Jessica at strawweight ill take that alday hits like a truck and can grapple and find a finish from the top i expect her to be the stronger fighter her and Yan will need to land early to keep Andrade pressuring for KO.

Evloev vs. Lopes
Movsar Evloev, DEC
Evloev on one weeks notice im not picking against the dude lopes could be fast tracked into the ufc top 10-5 and would be one of the biggest upsets in ufc Lopes was impresive on DWCS but its just to much to soon and Evloev was training for a similar fighter in Mitchel. no bets here Evloev could be put in a Parlay but the money is short

Gracie vs. Jourdain
Charles Jourdain, TKO, R1
years since we have seen kron i dont think his hands will be up to UFC standard again when we saw him fight ufc vet in Cub . Jourdain has lighing hands comes in to finish you in the early rounds we have seen him have gas tank issues and i worry that if Kron can survive he might find a finish on Jourdain . i still think Jourdain gets the job done and have a small bet on him rd 1 finish and 1 and 2 but i wouldnt argue a bet on a Kron Sub RD2 or 3 $100 bet returnes $675 at the moment . and we have this fight to not go the distance in a Parlay/Multi.

Dober vs. Frevola
Drew Dober, DEC
tough fight maybe fight of the year conteder if frevolas chin holds up the pick is dober he gets hit way to much but he can put your lights out i think dober probably knocks him out but i just have a feeling we will get a 3rd war and ill take dober in that 29/28

Clark vs. Nzechukwu
Devin Clark, DEC
i dont have to much on this fight Nzechukwu is powerful but starts slow and Clark is athletic and lost to the best of them i have a multi bet on this fight to start rd 2 but thats it the picks will be the dog

Williams vs. Bedoya
Khaos Williams, TKO, R1
this is my lock of the card i just dont see how Bedoya is going to earn the respect of Chaos and i see him walking down Bedoya and findind that right hand down the midle and putting the ufc newcomer out . Bet $100 Choas BY KO rd 1 or 2 Returning $225 & he is in 2 other Multi/Parlay bets of ours

Rodriguez vs. Jandiroba
Marina Rodriguez, DEC
straight up Virna Jandiroba is blind on the feet and i just think Rodriguez should find it easy to stay away from the takedown as long as she doesnt get to aggressive on the feet and give Jandiroba her hips for the take down if she can stay at range and land her one twos check hooks and teep kicks she should cruz to a points decison her imo . Bet Rodrigues Dec $60 returns $150

Porter vs. Smith
Braxton Smith, TKO, R1
two big humans braxton has been flatlining everyone in the regionals but this is a big test both men have tree trunks for legs but what i have seen in tape is Smith has alot shorter sharper and faster shots .this fight gives me Porter V Tafa feels and i think smith will find a shot as porter is throwing a right hand . bet is smith rd 1,2 KO $50 returning $172

Aliskerov vs. Hawes
Ikram Aliskerov, TKO, R2
the chin of phil hawes ... enough said i cant pick the bloke here against Aliskerov is a beast everywhere i dont care phil hawes wrestled D1 i think Aliskerov will test the strangth and if it gets stuck on the feet hawes throws big single shots that shouldnt worry Aliskerov . i think Aliskerov gets the finish here by either KO or Kimura

Zhumagulov vs. Estevam
Rafael Estevam, DEC
if this was before the charles johnson fight i think Zhumagulov is the fav but he made it close with charles johnson and he hasnt looked the greatest as of late very tough ufc vet to face in you debut but i like Zhalgas to be able to servive but once again the judges will give estevam the nod after he lands the better shots and Khalgas is shooting at legs but Zhalgas can win this fight

Holmes vs. Ribeiro
Claudio Ribeiro, DEC
tough fight both men are very avg imo holms has a good reach advantage and i hear alot of people saying he doesntuse his range well . i really dont think that is case to me he just looks slow doesnt have much pop in shots and isnt in and out enough but he use the full length of his shots. Ribeiro on the other hand he was doing alright in his last fight against Alhassan until he got caught. He is a power puncher with not much technique he really telegraphs his punch's and swings wild looping shots i think he gets out landed but landes the better more effect shots in this . i dont like this fight from a betting point of view but i do see value in Riberio Dec $10=$100 return. Holmes has Gone the distance 1 in 3 of his ufc were he lost to jamie pickett if holms and stay away and survive the first 2 rounds could be a nice value find.

Muhammad vs. Burns
Gilbert Burns, DEC
Currently, both Burns and Belal are coming into this bout not fully prepared. Belal coming out of Ramadam probably has not been training as hard during that period and Burns fought twice this year so far with him last fighting 2 weeks ago! For me burns taking this fight is insane. Yes maybe the weight cut probably isn't too bad as his body doesn't need too much time to adjust but taking on a top 5 on short notice while also being 36 I just have the image of Tony trying to cut weight twice and coming in to get battered in my head. If Burns fought someone who was not in the top five on short notice these factors wouldn't be an issue but with the top 5 and being this close to a title shot you cannot be anything but 100% when fighting. Skillset wise this fight might turn into a scenario where both fighters grappling cancels out the other and it turns into a stand-up. However, Burns BJJ when mentioned by other BJJ grapplers is on another level. This fight is very 50/50 and if this wasn't short notice I would have Burns easily however people forever underestimate Belal's skillset therefore I wouldn't be surprised with a Belal win.

This is a great bantamweight title fight. Underrated in my opinion. A lot of storylines coming out of this. Henry’s trash talk has been great. He’s already calling out O’Malley afterwards. Speaking with confidence of a forthcoming victory. 

Cejudo and Sterling both have very low SApM. Theyre both historically not easy to hit.

As a benchmark, anybody who's absorbing less than 3 strikes per minute is pretty hard to hit. This is one of the reasons why Jon Jones is the GOAT. He simply doesn't get hit. 

Aljos SApM is almost UNDER 2. Hes very difficult to strike with and hes fought plenty of above average strikers. 

Sterling vs. Cejudo
Henry Cejudo, DEC
Tripple Cringe, takes the DEC win here. Aljo will not push pace and rather try to piece him apart from the distance and whenever he can "hugg" he'll do it, like in teh second Yan fight. Cejudo will have it though dealing with Aljo's length. safest bet here is R3 is starting, another decent bet is Figh to go to distance. I just don't see neither finishing another. BUT I'm biased asf cause I hate Aljo the clown.

Muhammad vs. Burns
Gilbert Burns, DEC
Burns here is really a no brainer to me. Sure, he's far too early back, but at the end of the day its' Belal...yes he looked great in the Brady fight and actually finished somoen after like what ? 8 years ? but he had a full camp with coach Khabib, which he hasn't had now + rumour is he had a tough weightcutt. Burns really has the advantage here and Burns wobbled Usman and Khamzat... Belal will not wobble given the oppertunity he'll die... BUT I see both fighters keeping it safe and striking mostly, so don't be suprised if Burns wins by DEC and doesn't finish the fight, bro just had a fight like 2 weeks ago...

Evloev vs. Lopes
Movsar Evloev, SUB, R1
Evloev might get a finish here in R1 or R2 aggainst Lopes who makes a debut on shortnotice. Lopes has evrything to prove and I expect him to push the pace and then making an error.

Dober vs. Frevola
Drew Dober, TKO, R2
Both had decent opponents in their last 5, don't bet but Drew KO ? late R2?

Porter vs. Smith
Braxton Smith, TKO, R1
Brax, R1, KO. bro is like 300kg built like a fridge but moves so light, explosive, and heavy. He stays very light on his toe's and will definitly catch Parker in the exchanges Parker does on flat feet. Brax manages to slip and exnchange while because he stays on his toes, Parker just hits and in his axhanges overstreches, stays on flat feet and is so slow. Low level fight, but highly entertaning and PERFECT dogg value on Brax.

Aliskerov vs. Hawes
Ikram Aliskerov, DEC
My fav fight on this card. Ikram's wrestling is veryyyyy good. look at his only loss and fight with Khamzat. Bro litterly negated evry attempt of Khamzat's wrestling and eventually got caught on an exhange on feet. NOW, yes, Hawes has a KO power, One punch and its lights out. YES Hawes is very live as dog. BUT people... you really expect Ikram to lose liek that? that he made 0 improvements on his mistakes? these are Daggi's man...they learn from their mistakes and adapt. also Ikram did a 18 kg weightcutt in the Khamzat fight and he said himself, he won't fight at welterweight aggain. he's in a good weightclass now and will definitly win from Hawes who's very inconsistent.

I'm back on Tap, never left Discord and hungry to win make bread aggain.

I dropped big money on Ikram and Evloev, that got voided cause it was aggainst Bryce...
Will play a single unit on Braxton
And sprinkle something small with Brax, Burns, and Cejudo vs Aljo R3 to start yes probably

just waiting on the weigh-ins.

Good luck!

ps: My english is very good, I type fast and am super lazy on Tapp to correct myself.

A few changes from my early picks. I have a very good feeling about this card.

1. Henry Cejudo
I think it's important to step back a bit. Why are so many people thinking Henry can't win this. Mainly because of the fact he has not fought in 2 years. But that does not mean he was away from the game, he was training the best of the best. His fight IQ could be the best in the game at the moment and I think we should also not forget Aljo's record. None of his recent wins have been very clear cut. To my mind Henry is better almost everywhere. The advantages that Aljo has depend on his size and his being able to lock down a submission. He is not submitting Henry. I just do not see that. And I think Henry knows how to escape his back being taken and a body triangle. My prediction is 4 rounds to 1 or 3 - 2 in Henry's favour with him taking the last rounds with better cardio. Legacy is super important to Henry and I do not think he would have come back if he did not really think he could win this fight. Also maybe I am biased but I put my faith in Santino De Franco and Fight Ready.

2. Gilbert Burns
This one is a close one for me. I think Burns is clearly the better grappler but not the better wrestler. I do not think he is submitting Belal. On the feet I think it is almost equal though watching Belal get pieced up by Leon makes me think that Burns probably has an edge here. Cardio is probably equal as well. I do not like the fact that this is 5 rounds and Burns is coming of a very recent fight into this on short notice. But I do not think Belal, training through Ramadan and obviously having issues with his weight is going to have a huge advantage here either. The Brady fight was impressive but I think Brady gassed just like he did in the Chiesa fight and just quit. I am not that impressed with Brady unlike a lot of people seem to be. This is a close fight but I am edging Burns. Just.

3. Jessica Andrade
I think a lot of people are picking Yan after Andrade's last fight which was very very dissapointing. But Andrade just did not look herself. It was just a few weeks after another fight with a second weight cut in a short time and apparently Andrade had an injured hand, which explains why she just went hell for leather and I think just had a huge adrenaline dump, not even fighting the hands with the choke. I think she will put on a much better showing here. And Yan has poor take down defence. Even if she is improving I can see Andrade getting it to the ground at least twice in 2 rounds and if she does I think Yan is in trouble.

4. Mosvar Evloev
Decision win for Evloev. Chain wrestling and cardio will be too much

5. Kron Gracie
Switched my pick on this one. Looking at this I think someone knows something. Why after so many years is Gracie straight back into a main card? There has to be a reason. Not just his family name. And looking at tape on Jourdain I think it becomes obvious why. He has been taken down in almost every fight, and if that happens even once I think he could be in real trouble. Gracie is not bad on the feet either and he is tough as hell. So I think he gets it down, and at some point submits Jourdain.

1. Matt Frevola
Changed pick here as well. After watching tape I think it's obvious this is a very close fight. The striking is actually close and I think Frevola is likely to take the wrestling route. After watching his fight against Jalin Turner and Dober's fight against Dariush I can really see Frevola getting a lot of wrestling time and top time. I think it's a close fight but the wrestling edge tips me Frevola's way.

2. Kennedy Nzechukwu
I just have never been impressed with Devin Clarke. I was very surprised to see him win against Da Un Jung but Jung is just a very unpredictable fighter, I mean he lost to Sam Alvey. As for Kennedy I have been more and more impressed every time I see him. Apart from his obvious physical advantages and good cardio it is clear he is improving fight to fight. The win against Cutelaba just showed that his wrestling and get up game is also improving and I cannot see Devin holding him down even when he gets him down. And on the feet I think Kennedy pieces him up.

3. Khaos Williams
This should be a round 1 KO. Bedoya is too hittable and Khaos is just a beast.

4. Virna Jandiroba
I really like Virna here. I think she will not get KOd by Marina, she is too tough. And her cardio should hold out as long as she gets ground control. And I think she will get ground control. Marina has huge holes in her wrestling and grappling and unlike Dern Jandiroba has the ability to get it down. Also unlike Dern she will settle for position first rather than lose it trying to lock up submissions too quickly. I think Virna's BJJ is really quite comparable to Derns in a very different way of course but if it hits the ground I can see her locking up the round, and very likely locking up a submission. She is no joke.

5. Braxton Smith
Braxton has some of the most crazy knockouts I have seen. Head kick, Superman punch and one of the loudest smacks to the jaw I have ever heard. Very explosive, fast and unpredictable I think the the slow and plodding Porter is going to get caught. I doubt that he is the A side here and they seem to be feeding him to prospects now.

6. Aliskerov
I can see the upside for Hawes, excellent defensive wrestling which should be a problem for Ikram, good boxing and speed and athletisism. But I think Ikram will just chain takedowns relentlessly until Hawes gets tired, then he will begin to give them up. His chin is fragile but I don't think this will be much of a striking match. And I just can't back Hawes after coming back from what looked to be a horrific leg injury and bad KO, knowing he is going to be going into a wrestling heavy match here. Give me Ikram

7. Zhumagulov
I just have to go Zhumagulov here. His luck has to turn at some point. And the UFC obviously want to give him another chance after the horrible decisions he has had. I feel technically he is still very good and he just needs that little bit of luck to go his way. My main concern is his cardio defending takedowns. If this holds up I can see him winning this.

8. Ribiero
I do not rate Holmes at all. His only advantage in my eyes is his BJJ and his wrestling is not good. I think Ribiero is stronger, faster and has good enough takedown defence to keep it standing. Holmes is just too slow and does not use his reach well enough. I think this is a Ribiero KO. 

I’m picking Yan more because of Yans last 2 fights, she shown improvement in her grappling vs Dern to escape when she did get down (maybe could have been a draw) and Vs Marina she should have won imo. It’s a close fight but I’ll take the underdog. Plus I want zhang Vs Yan in China 🇨🇳 

Sterling vs Cejudo
Aljo W 

In my book the last time Cejudo won a fair and square fight was the Moraes fight, He did not beat DJ, that was an absolute robbery he lost all 5 rounds to DJ no ifs buts or maybes thats not debatable, Cruz he took him on 5 week notice and it was an early stoppage Cruz was getting up with 5 seconds left for the round to finish, Dillashaw drained at 125, So the last time he won was 5 years ago, Aljo is the pick, just by size Aljo should be able to use his front kick and jab and out strenght Cejudo in the scrambles or the clinch, if it goes to the ground Aljo has a good chance of taking the back, Cejudo is not gonna submitt Aljo, and i dont think he can control himon the ground neither, plus the long lay off. My concern is Aljo dipping his head going for a takedown with no set up or Cejudo baiting him into dipping much like he caught Cruz, my main real concern is the UFC fixing this fights , whos to say they dont pull another Cejudo DJ 2 outcome or another Pimblett score like card. Aljo can not leave it to the judges, I Like Aljo 2 units but the cheating scares me who knows what the UFC really want to do!!! so i reduce to 1 unit Aljo 

* Edited at 05.05.2023, 8:32 AM ET *

You are a 🤡 

Bedoya has a ******* chin. Im not saying Khaos can't or won't eventually put him down but after watching some tape on Bedoya, I do pause a little bit at the idea Khaos is the 2nd biggest favorite on the card (and was the biggest favorite until Bryce Mitchell got hurt). 

Chute box guy walking right into a power puncher. Very fun stuff but I'm not sure the result is going to be what everyone expects. If Khaos can't put him down and Bedoya is able to secure 2-3 takedowns over the course of this fight, he could steal a decision here as crazy as that might be to read.

Khaos can get gunshy trying to land that big shot where as Bedoya throws the entire kitchen sink at you non stop. I only hesitate picking him because Khaos has to know him being timid at times is why he lost 2 of his UFC fights so far. 

Joseph the bum Holmes has missed weight 

Time to switch my pick I guess

Paddy pimblett made weight