UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

projecting again, quite literally put your house on magomedov and melsik 2 weeks in a row LOOOLL

* Edited at 02.12.2023, 7:52 PM ET *

Your whole crew @baremaras says dumb **** just like Bracket all the time and don't learn or take accountability when they're wrong. Lets be real for a second

i actually told people NOT to bte on zubaira after he missed weight and my main parlay had jenkins and islam moneylines

i actually feel bad for you now because i keep presenting evidence of you being homeless and you keep denying it LOOOL set up a gofundme and I can pay your rent for a whole month until you get a job if you want

is this elementary school? you're attacking ME because of something SOMEONE ELSE said or did? 

I expected better from you especially since it's pretty obvious I'm joking half of the time and the other half I'm actually giving real insight. who else posts the type of analysis I posted on Kleydson vs Ross? even going out on a limb and telling people to look into betting Kleydson inside the distance (2.20 odds at the time I posted it)?

90% of the picks I talk about here I present a logical explanation as to why I picked them and whenever I have free time I literally take time out of my day to type an essay comprised by thousands of words as to why I'm picking who I'm picking or whether they should avoid betting on the fight etc etc.

just because I flaunt the money I'm making half jokingly it shouldn't take away from my credibility and the actual analysis I post on here. I'm not just ****posting random 1.28 odds locks without ANY explanation behind them like bracket does (and still get half of them wrong), everything I say is backed by years of watching and training MMA disciplines therefore it's my duty to defend myself whenever I'm doubted or lied upon (literally told people to stay away from zubaira and never even mentioned jenkins inside the distance)

* Edited at 02.12.2023, 8:12 PM ET *

@bracket I didn't say to stay away from Jack, I said it's not "a lock" I was relatively confident Jack would win and picked him to win by KO. That said Randy is long, flighty on the feet and decent at disrupting rhythm while showing he could handle the power of Khaos in his prior bout. I was just offering insight, I try not to tell people how to literally bet it's a bit undermining and silly unless they ask for that specifically. 


@baremaras I don't know I thought it was elementary school, you guys really fooled me. So we're adults here huh?

whats the lock of this card?

After watching tape I think I’m going back to elder. Nazim looked great on dwcs but not very impressive on the regional scene

PPE

 Who are these bums in co-main event? 

* Edited at 02.12.2023, 10:05 PM ET *

Question guys. How doess live betting on ufc or mma fights work, does it mean during the fights or after every round??? And would you be able to select props,ML and Over/Under? I use mybookie

Honestly at least half the card are bums, these card might be worst then the last apex show and that saying something , all apex show have range from mid to boring for the last few month, kinda happy then not in the apex after the Krylov vs Spann fight 

I’m not gonna complain to much about free fights, but ufc don’t try on Apex shows anymore, this must be the worst stretch of free ufc card ever

* Edited at 02.12.2023, 11:11 PM ET *

Depends on the bookie. Some will only let you bet between rounds, most of my bookies have odds up during rounds as well as long as the fight is standing, when a fight goes to the ground most of them suspend bets until the fight is standing again or the round ends. Which markets are available can differ, most of my markets strictly offer ML bets but I know that some bookies offer quite a few props so it depends entirely on what you have to work with.

As far as what is smart betting it mostly depends on your stream delay and your appetite for risk. Assuming you're on 1 minute or less delay you have at least a few seconds of perfect information whenever a round ends (ie not even people watching the event live at the venue knows more than you do). Betting during a round means betting on less information than at least a portion of the market that is moving that live line, the longer your delay the greater your risk.

If you have books that are sharper than other books you can also follow shifts in the sharper market to see where the less sharp market is likely to move and you can buy at a profit there if you're leaning a certain direction and the lines are moving to your benefit.

For example the odds are at a pickem at the less sharp (slower to move lines) market and you strongly favor one of the fighters. You look at the sharper market and see the odds on your fighter is being bet down. That's a signal in support of your buy inclination. Of course the opposite would be true if the lines are moving in the opposite direction on the sharp market.
To figure out which market is sharper than the other takes time and experience of course. I have a player's exchange market in Betfair which takes a comission for matching player's bets against one another. As such they have no incentive to ever ban anyone so sharp bettors that got limited or banned elsewhere will be present in this market, just as an example.

I hope that helps some, good luck.