Russian invasion of Ukraine thread.

I'll post what's happening as it comes through for purposes of posterity. Doubt the veracity of what is posted here. Having lived through the Iraq war, I am sure that the vast majority of what gets reported will turn out to be either misinformation or outright ********. Posting because a lot of non-Australia members will be asleep, now. I'll report as much as I can.

So far the g****vine is:

Russia has indeed embarked on a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Air attacks, and ground forces. There has been at least one missile strike, there have been front-line Ukranian casualities ( have seen video, cannot post it here, too graphic).

Footage of an airstrike hitting Lutsk:

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1496721271907889155?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1496721271907889155%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpatriots.win%2Fnew


Belarus has thrown in with Russia/is issuing support.
Reports of Ukrainian air defence having shot down multiple Russian planes, either drones or fighters. 


Some other info:

* Edited at 02.24.2022, 1:29 AM ET *

Just realised that link wasn't even to what I wanted to share **** nevermind

Yeah it's just the first thing I saw on Google but yeah I've heard the sun is bad ?? Is it

Was wondering why **** about the queens health and it being bikini weather showed up 

😂😂😂 don't know how tf to do it 

The sun is pretty infamous especially up north for their coverage of hillsborough. Spinned it as the fans fault with a bunch of lies claiming they did all this terrible ****. Plus they're the typical tabloid, but turned up to 11 when it comes to misinformation. Paddy wasn't wrong when he called it a rag of a newspaper 

That's ****** how they just publish lies to millions

Damn what a bounce.... So is it all in vain?

Pretty much, yeah. Ultimately, it will just hurt people in Europe and the US, as well as regular Russian people. Sanctions almost never hurt their intended targets, it's the average Joe that gets bent over the barrel. Oligarchs have so much equity and fluidity that they're kind of slip out of the noose. Pegging the ruble to gold was a smart play. I imagine the Ruskies have known that some kind of macro-scale embargo was in the pipeline and would happen eventually, which is why they've been stacking gold hard for about twenty years now. But mostly it's about gas and oil.

Here's something not a lot of people know: Crude oil has no shelf life. By that, I mean it has no expiry date. It can be stored practically indefinitely.


Short of everybody basically just deciding to stop buying Russian oil, I expect the strength of the Ruble to grow, not contract. As long as India and China keep buying it, western embargoes at their current levels won't result in much more than belt-tightening.  It's very likely that Russia basically just picks up a bunch of new clients wanting to take advantage of the black stuff going cheap, especially because they can hold it in reserve for a rainy day. It's an extremely seductive market opportunity that definitely won't go begging, and I expect that once the war wraps up, you'll see countries like Germany and Japan playing ball and buying crude in Rubles. Or failing that Russia will allow them to pay in their domestic currencies, just not the greenback.

When the dust settles I expect the Ruble to have superated its pre-war value, Russia to have expanded its oil markets in ways the US and EU probably won't like, and to have secured Donbass/Crimea totally. I don't see an extended occupation of Ukraine, and I'm pretty sure that's not the objective at this point. It may have been initially but with NATO support it's just straight up too much of a morass. Pretty sure the Ruskies will settle for the territory close to their borders, it's where the good stuff is anyway. They will probably establish a new port.

Those are my personal long-term forecasts.

Believe it or not, the current US administration is responsible for the big hikes at the bowser over the last year. Gas prices were already heavily inflated long before Russia invaded Ukraine. What's happening now is just the turd on top.

 

* Edited at 04.16.2022, 1:16 AM ET *

This is a list of kit sent to Ukraine thus far. I wonder what the bill for all this is.

This doesn't include direct cash payments which now total about 4B.

Meanwhile, veterans in the US die on the streets and the economy crumbles. What kind of change could all that 'aid' have effected if it was sunk into healthcare, or education?

Sad when the state is composed of people who care about their own personal interests more than their own people.

I calculated the cost of the stingers alone to be around 53.2M


Over 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems; Over 5,500 Javelin anti-armor systems; Over 14,000 other anti-armor systems; Over 700 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems; 18 155mm Howitzers and 40,000 155mm artillery rounds; 16 Mi-17 helicopters; Hundreds of Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles; 200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers; Over 7,000 small arms; Over 50,000,000 rounds of ammunition; 75,000 sets of body armor and helmets; Laser-guided rocket systems; Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems; Unmanned Coastal Defense Vessels; 14 counter-artillery radars; Four counter-mortar radars; Two air surveillance radars; M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel munitions; C-4 explosives and demolition equipment for obstacle clearing; Tactical secure communications systems; Night vision devices, thermal imagery systems, optics, and laser rangefinders; Commercial satellite imagery services; Explosive ordnance disposal protective gear; Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment; Medical supplies to include first aid kits.

* Edited at 04.16.2022, 3:33 AM ET *

Here we have a fine example of propaganda. It wasn't humanitarian aid. It was munitions. 

14th Russian General killed today. 

Learn what "Paper Tiger" means. Finland would overrun the Russian at this point.

* Edited at 04.16.2022, 4:53 PM ET *

Waiting for the typical response.

He's wasn't that important

It's not that big of a deal

He's not significant

Oh look Russia has a new trade deal with North Sentinel islands so the war is over and the West is doomed 😆

Here's a funny one. Czech Republic is giving Ukraine old Soviet (Russian) weapons to kill Russians.

Russia tells Czech Republic to stop send their old weapons to kill them with. Czech Republic laughs histerically while sending old Russian weapons to kill Russians.

I'm starting to think this thread is pointless right now.  At the very beginning it was ok, but now it turned to a battle of two sides. Chris posting russian losts, baldric trying to prove ukrainian's propaganda and evil, it can look embarassing for someone who enters this thread for actual info and neutral facts

If I were Gregory I'd consider closing this one

@Adrndc11, Yeah honestly i decided yesterday will Baldrics baseless twitter sources and Russian ****posting, i would start doing exactly what he was doing with Ukraine and see how he likes it.


Post 20 random Pro Ukraine posts per day and declare the war is over, the same thing he is doing with Russia

But i do whole hardheartedly agree. @Greg please shut down this thread so it doesn't get the attention that it wants so bad

Ah yes, the 'Dead Russian generals' thing. So far I've heard that it's up to 14. I've seen evidence of one.

You have to get over this idea that DPR forces are basically just Sgt Schultz. They're not. We're not talking about desert Hajis here. These guys are well trained, well armed, and they are fighting in their backyard. Chechens are some of the best urban combatants in existence. Consider if you will that the reason Assad is still in power in Syria and ISIS isn't is purely down to Russian forces.

It's pure propaganda--and not a particularly new original one, that the DPR  are bumbling idiots. That's  literally the line of taken by every opposing force in every war in history. Not just modern history either. 

You've got to stop getting your information from one side of the fence. There's going to be disinformation on both sides. The truth is likely to be somewhere in the middle.

Here's what I know so far: Russia continues to hold and secure Mariupol, including the port. Ukrainian forces made an effort to get it back over the course of the last 48 hours and failed to do so. There are no Ukrainian forces left in Mariupol. The last of the marines--that is the elite guard--have surrendered. Over 8K Ukrainian soldiers are reported as dead due to that conflict.

Here is a picture of a T-7B3 at the Port. I can post more images confirming the port has been secured if you like, but they involve lots of pictures of dead people, and Greg probably doesn't want that on the boards.

https://t.me/intelslava/25441


Odessa seems to be the next target. But the Russians are currently shelling Kyiv, probably to tie up Ukrainian forces stationed there which are quite strong in number I believe something like 50K troops.

I still believe that a total annexation of Ukraine is neither the objective and nor is it realistically possible so long as NATO keeps sending weaponry, which it seemingly intends to do so, at insane cost and for extremely little gain.

And that's where your taxation if going Chris. Do you really care that much?

Still pimping out Mariupol i see.

Would you like a Toe Tag with Birth and Death certificate for the Russian Generals death? Oh wait, it was reported by Russia!


You can use your Ria.ru Russian state owned News source to confirm to the death. You used that source before so you know its fair and accurate. I mean the Russians confirmed hes dead.

I care as much as you do :)

Leaked photo shows that while Russia was distracted with taking Mariupol, Oleksandr Usyk captured the Kremlin, forcing Putin to surrender. It's over now folks, Ukraine has won!