Russian invasion of Ukraine thread.

I'll post what's happening as it comes through for purposes of posterity. Doubt the veracity of what is posted here. Having lived through the Iraq war, I am sure that the vast majority of what gets reported will turn out to be either misinformation or outright ********. Posting because a lot of non-Australia members will be asleep, now. I'll report as much as I can.

So far the g****vine is:

Russia has indeed embarked on a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Air attacks, and ground forces. There has been at least one missile strike, there have been front-line Ukranian casualities ( have seen video, cannot post it here, too graphic).

Footage of an airstrike hitting Lutsk:

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1496721271907889155?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1496721271907889155%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpatriots.win%2Fnew


Belarus has thrown in with Russia/is issuing support.
Reports of Ukrainian air defence having shot down multiple Russian planes, either drones or fighters. 


Some other info:

* Edited at 02.24.2022, 1:29 AM ET *

if we can speak of any economy at all at the moment

adrndc11 really? The economy is falling apart piece-by-piece?

Then how exactly do you explain the Ruble being more highly valued than it was before the war? Money talks and ******** walks Kiddo. India is gobbling up Russian oil. China is still honouring its Russian oil contracts, and yes, will continue to buy Russian energy regardless of their official line--you're talking about a country willing to play ball with the Taliban. Germany is still buying Russian Energy. They say they'll phase it out by the end of the year, but that's lip-service. They won't. They won't because they can't. They know that by the end of the year it will be over, and there will be no point cutting off their nose to spite their face.

Here's the thing: The West is not close to getting off oil.If you take a look around your room right now, you will probably find almost nothing that either isn't made of oil, or arrived to you on the back of oil. Independence from oil is Decades away. Perhaps a century away. Russia is the world's second-largest oil producer.

Discounted oil being sold to India and China due to an embargoed Russia means two things for the West:

A) The price of doing business, especially in manufacturing, just got a whole lot better for China and India.These countries represent the largest manufacturing sectors in the world, and account for the vast majority of goods entering western markets. This is because they will still have access to cheap oil--in fact, significantly discounted oil.

B) The price of doing businesses is going to get dramatically worse for the West, which will now no longer be able to benefit from cheap Russian oil and will have to compete at a serious disadvantage as they will be paying the worst market prices possible for oil. This is why the price of gas in the US is high. The price of imports will get worse for the west particularly.

C) Russian oil isn't going anywhere. It's here forever. You will die and Russian oil will still be sold. Demand for Russian oil will increase, especially because Russia is a reliable and convenient trading partner for Europe--far more than the Saudis. Because the Ruble is now backed by oil, and because Russia had demanded payment in Rubles for their oil, the Ruble will increase in value as a result of supply and demand. Think of it this way; let's say there'a a concert. You need a ticket to go to the concert. Everybody wants to go to the concert, but there are only a finite amount of tickets to the concert issued. The price of those tickets increases. People start buying those tickets not even intending to go to the concert, but rather to sell them at an inflated price for resale--that is, they begin scalping them. That is what is going to happen.

But it goes far, far beyond the price of gas. Inflation is tethered to oil prices. If the price of oil is high, the price of everything increases just as a matter of base arithmetic, because the price of energy--which we need to produce and move everything, increases.

Sanctions against Russia don't hurt oligarchs or Daddy Vlad. They could give a ****. They hurt the average person in the west and in Russia who have nor want anything to do with any of it. That's basically how it works.

If you want to know who to balme over the coming months for skyrocketing CPI and inflation, thank the world leaders of the West for embargoing Russian oil. Not Putin. Because Putin was willing to continue selling cheap oil in perpetuity.

What you, and everybodty else in this thread needs to ask themselves is this:

Do you really give a **** about what happens in Ukraine--a country that has been in civil war for years, is the most corrupt region of Europe and top 3 in the world--being a slush fund for oligarchs and EU and US politicians, that has nothing to do with your day-to-day life, and isn't in your back yard ( well it isn't if you're American and if you're Polish you needn't worry because you're in NATO) to such an extent that you will literally live hand to mouth, fail to save for your kids' education, and live with massively increased financial pressure the possibility of losing everything for years? Because that is what you're facing. Prices and inflation are going to get worse, not better, the longer this continues. Real inflation in the US is already between 13-15%. There is no ******* way it's at 8%.

Because if the answer to that question is no--and honestly, it probably is that--then you shouldn't support Russian oil embargoes. Because the only people they hurt are people like you. Not the brass.

* Edited at 04.12.2022, 6:25 PM ET *

Russia looses 99 percent of the other territory it controlled earlier in north and north east. While also loosing ground in the south. And about to run out of every supply imaginable
 
That would mean they are still loosing badly. I hope math in territory gain and lose is universal enough to understand in Australia 😂



You have absolutely no evidence of this whatsoever. You're literally just pulling stats out of your ass at this point.


Like I say, show me the evidence. Not a map with a backing track on youtube. Real evidence.


My guess? You don't have any. Nada. If you did you'd have already posted it.

Just because you want it to be true doesn't mean it is chris. Absolutely nothing I have seen suggests anything other than Russia slowly rolling them over. Admittedly it's not happening as fast as I believed it would, but that's down to foreign intervention, not Ukraine. The taking of Mariupol is a huge deal and the most significant development in the war thus far. That's a 10-8.

* Edited at 04.12.2022, 6:35 PM ET *

Because there's literally thousands of Russian Troops marching down Kiev right now taking over the government 😂

Get a grip. Even the Russian government admitted they withdrew to "resupply"

So there you have it. Your hero, and lord and savior Putin is the source. Since you only believe Russian Propaganda. For some sad sad reason. Even the  Russians admitted withdrawal.

So now both Ukraine and Russia agree there's no troops in the north or north east but you want a map?

10-7  Chris

For the fact I used your own sources, the Russian government to confirm there's no Russian troops

Russia admits pulling out Troops in North and North East Ukraine

Baldric Response

"You have absolutely no evidence of this whatsoever. You're literally just pulling stats out of your ass at this point."

Do you ever sit back at your computer chair and listen to yourself talk? Or you just go so fast you hope everyone misses the crazy stuff you say?

You keep pimping out Kyiv like it means something, and it doesn't. Not really. Now that isn't to say that Russia wouldn't have preferred to topple it. They would have. But that's a pretty minor defeat, really. Yes, Russia withdrew from Kiev. But they've taken Mariupol and are consolidating their efforts in Donbass. Here's why both are connected and why that matters:

Now that Russia has captured Mariupol, they have successfully eviscerated Ukrainian forces from the black sea cost. Ukrainian forces are now totally isolated. They cannot trade, they cannot resupply. The port of Mariupol is the largest and most significant in Ukraine, and it is now under Russian control. They are quite truly kind of ******.

You think that the battle of Kyiv was some kind of Stalingrad when in fact it was objectively a bait-and-switch.It would have been great for Russia if they could have held it along for the bargain, but it doesn't really matter that they didn't. The Capture of Mariupol is far, far and away better strategically than the capture of Kiev ever would have been. That's why they've totally glassed it, something which they were no doubt loathe to do, but it literally was that strategically important.

Russia now also has a total landbridge between Donbass and the homeland, and has freed up thousands of troops which can now be directed towards other operations. If I had to guess, the next move will be to secure Odessa completely, which will be the last remaining sea port access available in Ukraine. If they do that it's GG.


Basically Russia wants all the Goodies in Crimea. Huge untapped reserves of Neon and Oil. Kyiv is just a capital. It would be a big scalp politically, but not in terms of resource acquisition. 


You are operating under the delusion that Ukraine is a ****genous country with a legitimate government that is being invaded by a foreign power, and this is not the case. The people of Donbass/Crimea are separatists, and want to be part of Russia. The US backed a coup in Ukraine in 2014 and now the chickens have come home to roost. The Ukrainian regime has been bombing them for nearly a decade, and has been resource starving them.They even dammed off their water. Basically half of Ukraine sees Russia as Liberators, not conquerors. 


And yes, I'll say it again, the US did back a coup in Ukraine, and there exists audio of then secretary of state Nuland literally talking about it, and who should be installed.

Right here

* Edited at 04.12.2022, 7:46 PM ET *

You have been pimping out Mariupol for the last few pages

I mean you must be delusional to think Ukraine cannot resupply through other routes,

And holding Mariupol is gonna be a nightmare

At least you finally admitted defeat in Kiev, Only because the Russian Government told you it was okay to admit. We have to crawl before we can walk.


And finally, Duh, If you think Russia was trying to free Ukraine from Nazi's or Russians in Donbass your ********. They are literally there for resources. Those were convenient excuses


And hate to break it to you. The Russian military is pathetic. The entire Western world is going to arm Ukraine and resupply them with food, fuel and weapons to the teeth until Russia Breaks. Rather it be weeks, months or years


Russia will do what Russia always does, Throw bodies after bodies until victory. The thing is that WW2 strategy does not work and is ineffective in modern military warfare in 2022. Any 3rd grader who studied anything about military history and tactics can relay this message. Russia will sacrifice thousands upon thousands of troops and not give a single ****.


Advance weaponry and a constant flow of money supplies will determine the outcome over a extended period of time. Russia wont win the long game, they physically cant. And when they run out of supplies and that endless supply from the West keeps comings. The chickens will come home to roost for Mother Russia

I'm pimping out Mariupol because it matters. Mariupol will stay under Russian control. I don't know why you believe this will be difficult, especially given that Russia now controls the port. It makes the war effort easier by multitudes in reality.

This is one of those times I feel like I need to remind you of something: Your government doesn't have any money. It has your money.

Your money is funding a proxy war that is hurting you, and your family, every day. And it's going to get worse. I can't even imagine how ******** you'd need to be with that as the status quo. Why do you even care?

The modernist period is over Chris. War's a different game now. It's not a case of sending people overseas with rifles and killing anybody with an accent.

I expect the US and EU to cut its losses eventually. Won't be any different from Afghanistan. Difference being the Russians are actually well armed with good kit.

But go on believing what you like. Good luck at the gas pump and the grocery store.
Give my regards to Baz.

The same ship that attacked snake island. Having a crew upto 500 has reportably sank in stormy weather making rescue attempts impossible.

Ukraine distracted the ship with a Turkish drone then hit it will a missile. Sending out Morse code signals for "sinking"

Turkey had blocked Black Sea access and with this at the bottom of the ocean, Russia is in a ****** place

rUsSiA iS wINnINg 🤤🤤🤤🤤

The equivalent of loosing this cruiser would be the united states loosing an entire strike force carrier group.

Basically impossible to replace and catastrophe to the Russian navy. They Only have 1 aircraft carrier, which let's pretend js not a complete joke. And 3 other ships this size..none of which can get into the black Sea at this time.

Here's a good write up..not mine

The Moskva was a flagship guided missile cruiser that was a linchpin in Russian dominance of the Black Sea. As the heart of a task force of Kalibr carriers, it protected them from air and sea attack while they lobbed cruise missiles at Ukrainian positions and civilians all along the coast. Now that it's at the bottom of the sea and with Turkey blocking passage, Russia has nothing to replace it with. This is a huge relief to Ukrainian war effort, and the start of a new chapter. All the smaller Russian ships are now far easier to hit not just with Neptuns but also with aircraft.

It's also notable that the Ukrainians apparently distracted the Moskva with a Bayraktar, then guided the Neptuns in. Bayraktar is proving invaluable as a spotter that guides in artillery or cruise missiles. If Ukrainians could get the Moskva, all the Kalibr-carriers will either bug out or risk being sunk in the same manner if they dare stay in Kalibr range. With Russia almost out of Kalibrs anyway, this means a huge immediate relief to Ukrainian forces and civilians.

The sinking as described sounds catastrophic, and it's very likely that there were few to no survivors. The ship took two cruise missile hits, rolled over, and detonated. All this took place in stormy choppy seas with 6ft / 2m swells. At night. For laymen, even evacuating an upright ship in calm seas during the day is a harrowing operation that takes hours.

If there are any survivors, they don't have much to look forward to, along many other Black Sea sailors including former Kalibr lobbers. Putin has been sending "useless" Black Sea sailors into combat as infantry replacements, WWII style. Russian replacement and recruitment situation is increasingly dire, and desperate measures are common. We are seeing infantry pulled out of Syria and immediately thrown into combat in Ukraine. We can expect any survivors to be cannon fodder at Azovstal within the week.

Last but not least the PR hit will be enormous. Rumblings on Russian social media are already starting, many panicky. The ship was the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. This is a HUGE deal. When Ukrainians scuttled their own flagship early in the war, Russian media celebrated with front-page articles for days. The Ukrainian flagship is only partially submerged in a city still controlled by Ukraine, while the Russian flagship is at the bottom of the sea.

The morale hit to the Russian armed forces will be enormous.

7 billion a month.

US has spooks involved, as usual.

Chechens got this guy. 

Some high-ranking azov was taken out by them too, in Mariupol.

Word is the big battle starts soon, in Donbass over the next 48 hours.

Interview with captured British mercenary.

https://t.me/intelslava/25254

@Chris the warship is good blow for Ukraine, but it doesn't mean as much as that pundit thinks it does. It's not exactly 'new' kit, it';s been in service since the 70's, and to describe it as the jewel of the fleet is very rich because it wasn't. That would be the Kirov(s). Russia has held the air since the jump and still does, despite the destruction of the Moskva. They still hold the port of Mariupol, which means the Ukrainians cannot resupply or trade--which is probably why actor Zelensky is pleading for alms to the tune of an absurd 7 billion per month, and Russia now has a total landbridge between Ukraine and Russia. Money matters more than munitions in war. That's what the goal of sanctions is about. So Far Ukraine has lost at least 19 warships that we know about. It's the sort of thing that's going to make Vlad salty but it doesn't change what's happening in the theatre in a meaningful way. Russia so far has only committed about 15% of its entire force in this war. There are rumours that Putin has sent in a couple of Nuclear subs armed with ICBM's which we all need to hope isn't true.

I do think it's coming to its ultimate conclusion. What happens in Donbass over the next few days will probably determine how quickly it ends. Regardless I don't see Ukraine recovering from this anytime soon even if by some miracle they do pull out a win, which is extremely unlikely at this point. Mariupol in particular is absolutely decimated.

* Edited at 04.14.2022, 6:34 PM ET *

Kids. All of them will soon either be dead or physically and/or psychologically mutilated for life. And for what? It seems worse than murder to me.


https://twitter.com/realGonzaloLira/status/1514735878375104521?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1514735878375104521%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpatriots.win%2Fnew

* Edited at 04.14.2022, 7:19 PM ET *

No.  No money from US.  If we‘re feeling charitable, (1) there are people here who need it, and (2) if we want to engage in direct aid, I‘d rather prevent starvation.  Ukraine should have just joined NATO/Eurovision.

Charity begins at home.

Not a penny is owed to Ukraine. They both fought for and collaborated with the NAZIS in WW2 BTW.