UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Rodriguez vs. Ortega II
Yair Rodriguez, TKO, R2
Fun rematch for the fans here in the co-main. From a betting perspective, Ortega is interesting as an underdog. He can really threaten Yair with submissions if this fight heads to the mat for any length of time. He has shown significant improvement in his boxing. Yair for me is the more reliable pick though. He's the more active fighter. I look for Yair to expose any ring rust that Ortega might have with high volume striking and land a big shot to end this fight in the 2nd round.

Moreno vs. Royval II
Brandon Moreno, DEC
40-1

Rodriguez vs. Ortega II
Yair Rodriguez, TKO, R3
38-3,24, maybe later rounds

Zellhuber vs. Prado
Daniel Zellhuber, DEC
37-2

Rosas Jr. vs. Turcios
Raul Rosas Jr., SUB, R2
38-4,23

Jauregui vs. Hughes
Yazmin Jauregui, DEC
40-0

Torres vs. Duncan
Manuel Torres, TKO, R2
37-3, rd 1-2

Quiñonez vs. Barcelos
Raoni Barcelos, DEC
29-11

Aguilar vs. Mendonça
Jesus Aguilar, TKO, R2
21-16,14

Cháirez vs. Lacerda
Edgar Cháirez, SUB, R1
39-1,1-2

Puelles vs. Ziam
Fares Ziam, DEC
32-8

Rodríguez vs. Bondar
Luis Rodríguez, DEC
29-11

Altamirano vs. dos Santos
Felipe dos Santos, DEC
39-2

Naimov vs. Silva
Muhammad Naimov, TKO, R2
39-0

Jauregui vs. Hughes
Yazmin Jauregui, TKO, R3
U2. 5

Torres vs. Duncan
Manuel Torres, TKO, R2
Live bet due to cardio

Aguilar vs. Mendonça
Jesus Aguilar, DEC
Jesus live

Cháirez vs. Lacerda
Daniel Lacerda, DEC
Dog or pass **** show

Puelles vs. Ziam
Fares Ziam, DEC
Claudio sub hedge

Altamirano vs. dos Santos
Victor Altamirano, DEC
Live bet opportunity

I also think this card is going to have at least 3-4 subs.

* Edited at 02.24.2024, 1:26 PM ET *

Don't see Ziam vs Puelles ending in anyway other than Puelles getting embarrassed tbh. He won't wrestle Ziam down bc his wrestling sucks and he won't oustrike Ziam. All he has here is an imanari roll and kneebar, maybe he can try to climb  Ziam like a koala if they clinch. For his sake, he better have learned some new tricks in his 1 year absence

* Edited at 02.24.2024, 2:30 PM ET *

@_Vis_ 

I'm not confident to pick either. Both of them make questionable choices in their fights and have just one thing they can really do well. Puelles being a grappler and Ziam being a striker. What worries me for Ziam is that every fight he has had in the UFC he was either being taken down or took someone down to the ground himself. Both fighters also like to clinch a lot. So I'm expecting this fight to go to the ground at least once or twice. If that happens, Puelles can sub him from every position, since Ziam's ground game is really not that great. Hooker fought rangy against Puelles and he was being taken down regardless. Ziam doesn't fight at range that much. Though it remains to be seen if he made adjustments for this fight. With that said, Puelles has insanely sloppy takedown attempts without setting anything up. Ziam may not be a heavy hitter, but I can definitely see a scenario where Ziam knees Puelles flush when he tries to shoot for a takedown. 

Regardless, I'm really not confident in choosing either in this fight. I totally understand why most of you are more confident than I am, but for me this is probably the hardest fight to predict on this card.

Didn’t Puelles get real deep into his knee bar against Hooker also, I think Hooker is an under rated grappler

* Edited at 02.24.2024, 3:29 PM ET *

People we only needs to check Puelles match ups in his professional record to reach conclusions: 
- Silva was beating him until Puelles pulled a hail mary kneebar in the third round.
- Mariano was a 6-5 record fighter with 0 Ground Game or Takedown defense.
- Puelles beats Leavitt based on being more athletic and having better fundamentals in striking and wrestling. 
- Gritz was making a close fight (and go ahead in the 3rd round before being caught) 
- Guida is a heavy wrestling strategy fighter who often makes mistakes in submission defense. 

Against Dan Hooker, Pulles was humiliated. 

Pulles is 5-2, but it shows the magic that matchmakers can do with favorable match ups (Grietzmacher, Guida and Mariano are Tailor made opponents for Puelles). Ziam maybe not a good grappler, but he has good movement and the ability to work from a distance with his Kickboxing. 

Tonight, Puelles will be humiliated again!

Puelles belongs in the PFL.

Rosas Jr. vs. Turcios
Raul Rosas Jr., TKO, R2
6th

Jauregui vs. Hughes
Sam Hughes, SUB, R2
Let's go Sam 👊💪🦵🦶

@Amettxpc 

You can also say the same about Ziam's opposition. Ziam has mostly fought strikers in the UFC. McKinney was the only fighter Ziam has fought that could pose a threat to him on the ground. McKinney subbed him pretty easily as well. Puelles may not have the wrestling and isn't very creative in finding ways to get the fight to the ground, but he always gets his opponent there somehow with trips, pulling guard and of course his imanari roll. Just like he did in his fight against Hooker. And don't forget that he got Hooker in a very precarious position. Even though that was also the turning point in that fight.

The other thing that worries me for Ziam is that he tends to back up and move laterally close to the octagon fence. Which is a big no-no in this fight against Puelles. He has done this against every opponent he has fought in the UFC, except the McKinney fight where they got to the ground right after the fight started and got submitted just seconds after.

I do agree that Ziam "should" dominate in this fight, but the factors I mentioned make this fight dangerous for him. Yes, Hooker humiliated Puelles but Ziam isn't Hooker just like Puelles isn't McKinney. I don't rate Ziam's striking, fight IQ and cage control as high as Hooker. I'm just very curious how both these guys have improved since their last fight. Especially Puelles.

I still don't know which fighter to pick here. All Puelles needs is just one opportunity to get his sub, just like his fight against Silva. Other than that, I agree that Ziam should win this fight.

Last call for Tapology Survivor Game 100!

https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/79133?page=3#post-1326603

Cháirez vs. Lacerda
Daniel Lacerda, DEC
Lacerda gang,after this he goes on a tear to become one of the.

* Edited at 02.24.2024, 5:56 PM ET *

Quinonez is + money against Raoni.. 3-4 years ago, I'd see why.. but I can't see how Raoni wins? Wrestle? Anyone wanna break it down for me? 

I

* Edited at 02.24.2024, 5:58 PM ET *

Guys ..Chairez , Dos Santos , Jauregui and Zellhuber are the parlays buster this card..someone of these losses guaranted 

@RichOsama 

Quiñonez got finished early in his last fight by a mid fighter. Barcelos has been on a skid, but his last 2 losses were to Umar and Kyler Phillips. No shame in that. He didn't look terrible in that fight against Kyler either. He holds the grappling advantage and can at least be competitive on the feet as well. Just my two cents. I won't be surprised if either guy wins

* Edited at 02.24.2024, 6:05 PM ET *