UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Battle vs. Fletcher
AJ Fletcher, SUB, R2
this will be a good ass fight too. battle surprised me against gabe green. maybe it's a hot take but i think battle will be the one pressuring, and fletcher does great into that. green got caught coming forward taking the fight to battle

Jourdain vs. Ramos
Charles Jourdain, DEC
this has potential fotn written all over it. what a banger. i just like jourdain more, either guy could take this

Johns vs. Argueta
Miles Johns, DEC
im a little surprised at argueta being the favorite here. maybe im missing something

Means vs. Fialho
Tim Means, TKO, R2
fialho fights too often. means is too good and recently kind of seems like he's having some resurgency to me. im kind of thinking fialho always has the shot to KO him, but means will drown his ass if he doesnt, and skill wise probably lands more flush shots. fialho's chin is at the point where the dirty bird can and i think likely will make it an early night

Malkoun vs. Brundage
Cody Brundage, DEC
hate this one because brundage is skilled and technical but makes very poor fight iq decisions. i wouldnt be surprised if he comes out gets a huge advantage to start. huge doubts if he can close the show, but its viable and i like rooting for guys like that who have everything they need to put it together

Rodriguez vs. Waterson-Gomez II
Marina Rodriguez, DEC
i dont see how michelle waterson wins. she's just a buzz name that the ufc doesn't want to cut

Fiziev vs. Gamrot
Rafael Fiziev, DEC
hard one to pick for me

Mitchell vs. Ige
Bryce Mitchell, SUB, R1
mitchell took down topuria round 1 while sick and getting hit hard. it was very late take down and he couldn't do anything with it, but im thinking that this fight is hitting the ground and then ige is gonna get his ass beat up with gnp from half guard and subbed out or take a vicious ass mauling all fight long

Building parlays w/ these picks

Jacob Malkoun over 1.5 rds -200,
Cody Brundage is an underwhelming UFC fighter who struggles against grapplers. He's stepping in against Malkoun who has seen plenty of success in fighting the most boring fights ever. His strategy is the same old push against the cage, work the takedown, and when he fails to get it he'll just wrestle against the cage and slowly land a few more shots in dominate positions.

Marian Rodriguez TKO/DEC -275
We've seen this fight already and Watterson is only getting older and slower. Marina's last few outings haven't looking great, but the last fight was a blowout if I remember correctly w/ Watterson finally landing some eye-swelling damage late in the fight. Unless Watterson plans on using a crafty TD strategy, she's gonna eat a lot of bunches to the noggin.

Bryan Battle Inside the Distance +150
I think Bryan Battle is just the better and more dangerous fighter. Cleaner, stronger, striker with some slick grappling at times. AJ Fletcher is very capable of landing more shots or push the pace on this fight, but I think that's what's going to be his undoing. Battle has a weird rhythm that can throw a lot of fighters off, so if he can stuff 2-4 TDs this fight he could ppull off the Sub or KO.

Dan Ige ML +168
I just don't see what people see in Mitchell. I think he's a great grappler with a strong pace, but he's not a good striker. Even Mitchell's wins in the UFC aside from Barboza don't really do anything for me. He has 1 submission win in the UFC to a guy that no longer fights in the UFC, and has WAAAAAAAYYYYY too much personal drama going on and even reading scripture on why he thinks he'll win. If Ige stops the TDs he is literally going to jab and calf kick Mitchell until the cross can land whenever thrown. I want to go Ige KO/Dec, but I could see him choking an exhausted Mitchell. ML money is good enough as is.

Rafael Fiziev Over 1.5 Rds -115
Fiziev is a killer in the striking department. His balance is unreal and will be next to impossible to takedown (90% UFC TDD). I could literally see him stuff 4/5 maybe even more and the one TD that does land he'll pop right back up. Gamrot needs to be on top of someone to land significant strikes in any volume. My fear is that this fight could end up like Gamrot vs  Arman Tsarukyan though with a very close strike count, but Gamrot literally attempting over 20 TDs. One thing to note too is that Gamrot has been knocked down by 4 different UFC opponents so far, so he does tend to get caught. I'm taking Fisiev w/ takedown defense and the power and volume in striking to get this done after 1.5 rds. 

All together +2462 odds, but with the **** judging lately people might want to stick to 2-3 leg parlays to be safe. 

 

Damn, Mizuki Inoue is cute

* Edited at 09.23.2023, 1:16 AM ET *

@Rah123 

Please bestow us with your picks.
I remember your very words for last week’s card, that I shouldforget all the picks I madeand listen. And so, here I am, waiting to hear your picks. 

Fiziev vs. Gamrot
Mateusz Gamrot, DEC
49-46x2 48-47 Gamrot. I think his gameplan excels in the smaller cage while Fiziev fails to keep up

Mitchell vs. Ige
Bryce Mitchell, SUB, R1
Rear naked choke. Ige gets immediately taken down and tries to jump up after some brutal shots get landed, Bryce sinks in a brutal RNC. 4 star.

Rodriguez vs. Waterson-Gomez II
Michelle Waterson-Gomez, DEC
30-27, 29-28x2 Uni for Karate Hottie. I think Marina has slowed down a bit where as the game she struggles with KHottie excels at. I think Michelle is much better than she was 2.5y ago, and I don’t feel the same for Marina.

Battle vs. Fletcher
Bryan Battle, SUB, R2
Late 2nd round it just sinks in as time winds down.

Jourdain vs. Ramos
Charles Jourdain, DEC
30-27, 29-28x2 Uni but 29-28correct close fight.

Johns vs. Argueta
Miles Johns, DEC
Split Dec. 29-28x2 28-29

Means vs. Fialho
Tim Means, SUB, R2
Arm Triangle when bloodied up.

Malkoun vs. Brundage
Jacob Malkoun, DEC
30-27x3 uni. Not the best or that exciting. 4 star.

Collier vs. Usman
Mohammed Usman, TKO, R2
I think Usman gets this down constantly and punishes Collier every time he does. 4 star.

Inoue vs. Goldy
Mizuki Inoue, DEC
30-26x3 Uni. 4 star

Rendon vs. Vidal
Tamires Vidal, TKO, R2
Ground and pound tko from side control. 4star.

Gamrot sub r4
Marina dec
Ramos tko 
Dan dec
Andre tko
Mizuki dec
Rendon dec

.

* Edited at 09.23.2023, 3:33 AM ET *

Collier vs. Usman
Mohammed Usman, TKO, R1
I think usman gets the KO round one, maybe round 2 but definitely a tko

Inoue vs. Goldy
Mizuki Inoue, DEC
Decision win

Rendon vs. Vidal
Tamires Vidal, DEC
Decision win

Mitchell vs. Ige
Bryce Mitchell, DEC
Mitchell by control and takedowns.

Rodriguez vs. Waterson-Gomez II
Marina Rodriguez, DEC
Why

Battle vs. Fletcher
Bryan Battle, DEC
Battle too big for T Rex

Jourdain vs. Ramos
Charles Jourdain, DEC
Only concern is

Johns vs. Argueta
Dan Argueta, DEC
Cardio and takedowns vs no cardio and no takedowns

Means vs. Fialho
Tim Means, DEC
Dirty win

Malkoun vs. Brundage
Jacob Malkoun, DEC
Brundage go home

Collier vs. Usman
Jake Collier, DEC
Fatty wins

Inoue vs. Goldy
Mizuki Inoue, DEC
Only in it for the Only Fans

Rendon vs. Vidal
Tamires Vidal, DEC
Both are horrible so who cares. Flip a coin

Fiziev vs. Gamrot
Mateusz Gamrot, SUB, R5
Here it is. The ultimate betting guide from yours truly. You are welcome. Gamrot wins the cardio battle.

Dude, nobody cares about your picks, everybody here thinks you are an idiot. Stop prentending like you are a gift to this forum.

Malkoun vs. Brundage
Jacob Malkoun, DEC
Malkouin's pressure and grappling will win the fight

Johns vs. Argueta
Miles Johns, DEC
My least confident pick but Argueta looked trash on TUF

What is everyone's favorite bet for tonight? Really liking Fiziev in R4/5/Dec at +180

Full UFC Vegas 79 Picks, Predictions & Betting Card for those interested: https://oddsmokermma.com/2023/09/23/ufc-vegas-79-fiziev-vs-gamrot-picks-predictions-betting-card/

After some of the poorer cards have been so good this year I'm looking at this one an expecting ******* fireworks! 

I invested a decent bit in Usman earlier in the week as a parlay piece and after seeing Collier looking in decent shape I’m quite worried to be honest

I kept telling everyone, dont bet on Usman.

Even if you don't bet on Collier, Usman is NOT a good fighter.

In fact I think Collier is the better grappler, let alone striker