UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

It's one where I'm not confident in either guy, but I think Turkalj has skills and just hasn't gotten to use them much. He fought an absolute animal in Almeida, and got outmuscled by Petrino who is a bruiser himself. He showed skills especially on the ground but his opponents were more athletic there. It's not crazy to think he could capitalize against Pedro.

I'm not saying I know how this will go but I'm leaning towards The Pleasure Man and I don't think either pick is crazy.

I don't know at all TBH (meant to pick Manel) 

* Edited at 09.07.2023, 5:54 PM ET *

Pedro's resume is irrelevant, all I'm saying is that there's not that big of a gap in their grappling 

In the first half of the fight Tyson will try to finish Anton ,will he make it-probably not,in second half Anton will have the opportunity to finish it but he will not even try too hard so he doesn't get the finish too,that means round 1 for Tyson round 3 for Anton and close round 2 ,Tyson has the home advantage and maybe gonna do a little more damage in 2nd round  so Dec win for Tyson,how much you would put on those fighters from your bankroll-0$

@MateuszBialka 

I'm pretty much backing those 

FINAL PREDICTIONS RELEASED AT MIDNIGHT! @WoBBLDmma Big bounce back week for the squadron! 

Why are we trying to predict Turkalj vs Pedro? Two Completely unreliable fighters fighting at LHW. Just flip a coin on that one.

https://wobbld.wordpress.com/2023/09/07/final-predictions-ufc-293/

1.Kevin Jousset -155 v. Kiefer Crosbie +130: Kevin Jousset is overvalued with an implied probablity of 60 percent. We believe that Crosbie is more likely to win thus we suggest leaving Jousset out of your parley this week.

2.Shane Young -162 v. Gabriel Miranda+136: Shane Young is overvalued here. Bookies have him at 61 percent. He needs a win but he should be such a favorite. Avoid Shane Young. Thanks for reading MMA’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
3. Nasrat Haqparasat -485 v. Landon Quinones +370: while my pick is haqparasat he definitely should not be an 82 percent favorite. In fact if anything quinones could be a good play as they have him at 21 percent implied probability. Overall i would pass on this because i think Nasrat Haqparasat will edge it out.

4. Jamie Mullarkey -265 vs John Makdessi +215: Implied prob for mullarkey is 72 percent. That is way way to high. I even think its possible for makdessi to win here. I would avoid Mullarkey because i think hes about 20 percent over valued. Also in tape study Mullarkey kept getting taken down and looked terrible. While he could win here he definitley should not be a 72 percent favorite. Pass on mullarkey, buyers beware.

5. Jack Jenkins -205 v. Joe Mariscal +170: I am confident on Mariscal. Implied prob on jenkins is 67 percent. That is overvalued. I would avoid Jenkins. These are the fighters I would be most concerned about parlaying, and betting on. Jousset, Young, Haqparasat, Mullarkey, Jenkins.

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My issue with Tyson Pedro decision bet is he gassed out so quick, while doing so little, dudes a professional athlete and have such dog **** cardio, if this goes pass round 1, Tyson Pedro done, 

Adesanya vs. Strickland
Sean Strickland, DEC
49-46, 48-47, 47-48 Split Dec. Going out on a limb, Izzy is getting restless with this division, Strickland is in his head, and I think Izzy will want to make a point here - a statement. Strickland just fights his very awkward style but really does well avoiding all the big strikes and feigns. He works in his grappling! And it's successful. I think Izzy stays very stubborn believing he can KO Strickland at any moment, and he probably will think he is up by Champ rounds. Strickland continues grinding and ends up quite hyperbolically stealing the championship belt. Crazier **** has happened.

Tuivasa vs. Volkov
Alexander Volkov, TKO, R2
Backmount tko, Voklov's gameplan will be fantastic here.

Kape vs. dos Santos
Manel Kape, TKO, R2
Ground n pound tko after Kape gets used to his opponent, this will be domination.

Tafa vs. Lane
Austen Lane, DEC
Ugly ugly fight, but 29-28x2 30-27 Uni for Lane.

Pedro vs. Turkalj
Anton Turkalj, TKO, R1
I think Anton hurts Pedro with a body shot and keeps it on him.

Ulberg vs. Jung
Carlos Ulberg, TKO, R2
I think Ulberg gets rocked in this one, but continues on in a slugfest, He clips Jung in the early 2nd.

Jenkins vs. Mariscal
Jack Jenkins, DEC
Dec 29-28x3 uni. close fight.

Mullarkey vs. Makdessi
Jamie Mullarkey, DEC
Split 30-27, 29-28, 28-29 clear for Mullarkey though.

Haqparast vs. Quiñones
Nasrat Haqparast, DEC
30-27x3 Uni. Nasrat stifles and succeeds here.

Mathetha vs. Radtke
Charlie Radtke, SUB, R1
RNC, I just don't see it another way.

Young vs. Miranda
Gabriel Miranda, SUB, R2
Miranda pulls guard on a guillotine when pushed up against the cage.

Jousset vs. Crosbie
Kiefer Crosbie, DEC
29-28x3 Uni.

Adesanya vs. Strickland
Israel Adesanya, TKO, R4
Since Strickland doesn't know how to check leg kicks Izzy will destroy his leg in the 1st round and then pick him apart til landing a head kick

Tuivasa vs. Volkov
Tai Tuivasa, TKO, R2
Can see the Tuivasa/Hardy or Lewis/Volkov happening here with Tai getting rocked and then Volkov gets caught

@Rah123 

Thank you. I've been trying to speak sense to people here for so long. The odds being this close is a joke (a welcome one though). One guy, the UFC calls to get thrashed by their prospects, the other is a (former?) prospect with wins over Paul Craig and Khalil Rountree who is clearly technically superior to the other in every area. Also, don't tell me some kaka about Pedro gassing, he gassed in one fight to a better fighter than Turkalj. If you feel like putting money on The Pleasureman just give it to a nonprofit instead. 

* Edited at 09.08.2023, 1:38 AM ET *

@danromanick 

No disrespect, but have you ever seen Pedro fight besides his last outing?

"Dont tell me some Kaka"

😂🤣😅😅🤣😂

Bro you literally made me laugh out loud 😂 

What is with the: "X and Y fighters are good. Fighter Z only lost to those two good fighters so he must be good too" logic?? That's not even logic actually, that's an absence of logic. There's an entire spectrum between crushing cans and losing to good fighters, so losing to the only two good guys you've ever fought doesn't tell us a damn thing. If I were to step in the cage today and get brutalized by Oliviera and Makhachev, would I be a good fighter too???

* Edited at 09.08.2023, 1:39 AM ET *

A pro athlete shouldn’t gas like that, gassing after like 3 minutes of low output is very pathetic cardio for an UFC fighter, don’t think you can get worst than that. They’re no excuse for it

And for facts, Tyson Pedro also hasn’t won a fight after round 1. And lost every round past that too, I need to see him do well past round 1 to change my mind on him

@DamienHandel420 

Valid points, but the gulf in skill is so wide you'd have to rely on Pedro not finishing Turkalj,but Pedro has a very chance of subbing/KOing him. The guys that are taking Pedro to decisions are legit. Turkalj is not. If anyone is really getting cold feet about Pedro they simply shouldn't bet this fight