UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

He is not beating Sean but he will probably get a rank like Hentai Suckudo did from losing.
Dana White Privilege is real it is not a race thing anybody who sucks him off is equal..till they suck in the cage.

Alhassan out. Bruno Ferreira is taking on nursulton ruziboev (34-8). Also Weston Wilson(16-7, all losses by finish) stepping in to fight brito. 

* Edited at 06.21.2023, 7:40 PM ET *

Ruziboev vs. Ferreira
Brunno Ferreira, DEC
Fight got even better

So excited for Blacks debut , been watching em for about 2 years now. Don't think Bruno finishes em . Bruno decision or Black by sub. 

Brito vs Wilson is such a mismatch on paper lmao

Going to put a bet on Dawson, Damir retired for a little bit after the Arman fight  but is coming back for one fight because that what on his contract and he wants to honour his contract , massive red flag for Damir and Dawson be a dog most likely also

* Edited at 06.23.2023, 1:07 AM ET *

Brito vs. Wilson
Joanderson Brito, TKO, R2
How is Wilson in the UFC he lost to washed Ishihara

Just watched tape for Brito/Wilson. Yikes. Multiple unit bet on Brito inside the distance if it isn't too juiced. 

Yeah I expect a 1st rd finish for brito 

* Edited at 06.23.2023, 8:45 PM ET *

Bonfim + guacamole = max bet

Strickland vs. Magomedov
Sean Strickland, DEC
Going with Strickland because of his 5 round experience in the small apex cage. Also magomedovs chin worries me. He got stiffened by barely a left hook from Louis Taylor

Ismagulov vs. Dawson
Damir Ismagulov, TKO, R3
Ismagulov being able to anti grapple and being the better striker

Lipski vs. Gatto
Melissa Gatto, TKO, R3
Lipski looked improved in her last fight but Montana de la Rosa and Antonina shevchenko were able to push a good pace & end up winning by g&p so I see gotta doing the same

Griffin vs. Morales
Michael Morales, TKO, R2
Griffin might give Morales problems because he's a vet & Morales is still green but Morales is dangerous everywhere & the better grappler with a good gas tank

Saint-Denis vs. Bonfim
Ismael Bonfim, DEC
Bonfim is a top 5 talent. BSD is a dawg but has holes in his game that Bonfim should expose

Ruziboev vs. Ferreira
Nursulton Ruziboev, SUB, R3
Brunno has **** you power but what happens if he doesn't get a ko? I don't think he'll be able to ko Nursulton

Lee vs. Fakhretdinov
Rinat Fakhretdinov, DEC
It'll be awesome if Kevin Lee wins but he made it close with Diego Sanchez last year. Can't pick him until I see him fight through adversity against a talented fighter

Romanov vs. Ivanov
Alexandr Romanov, DEC
This fight is gonna be terrible

Kutateladze vs. Brener
Guram Kutateladze, TKO, R1
I'll cry if Guram looks like **** and loses a split decision

Brito vs. Wilson
Joanderson Brito, SUB, R1
Over or under a minute for brito?

Strickland vs. Magomedov
Sean Strickland, DEC
I expect this to look similar to Strickland v Imavov. Abus is a flashy striker and he's very "snappy". With that said, Strickland is an elite point-fighter and I expect him to be able to score where Abus isn't expecting him to, and more or less dominate this fight.

Saint-Denis vs. Bonfim
Ismael Bonfim, TKO, R2
I don't agree with the people calling Bonfim a potential top 5er or even future champ just YET, but it's pretty evident that the potential is there. He should be able to put BSD away.

Romanov vs. Ivanov
Blagoy Ivanov, DEC
Romanov has about one full round before he breaks. Once Ivanov weathers the storm, it'll be smooth sailing for him. Romanov's best shot is an early finish here, and good luck finishing Ivanov.

Kutateladze vs. Brener
Guram Kutateladze, DEC
Praying Guram makes it to fight night.

Ruziboev vs. Ferreira
Brunno Ferreira, TKO, R1
The Hulk by Hulk Smash in quick fashion

Santos vs. Rosa
Yana Santos, DEC
Not confident but hoping for Yana to get her mojo back

Strickland vs. Magomedov
Sean Strickland, TKO, R5
maybe Sean can jab him to death and find a finish late. dude always spars, his conditining his on point

Lee vs. Fakhretdinov
Rinat Fakhretdinov, SUB, R3
I don't like how Lee looks at WW. Maybe all this time off had given him a chance to change that, but I'm with the majority here...I think he's going to lose

Lee vs Fakhredinov  Fakhredinov DEC 

Really interesting one here; Big step up for rinat and lee is finally back in the ufc. What a trainwreck of an mma career kevin lee has had. He started out as a top prospect, and always flirted with success, but struggled at the top. The story of every kevin lee fight is as follows; he starts off looking amazing, then realizes his body cant maintain the pace hes set, then he gasses out and either loses a decision or gets finished. After the tony fight, lee bounced around 170 and 155 trying to make things work. Eventually he made a permanent move to 170 & took on d rod. He started off hot but then gassed out even earlier than normal (was dead after round 1) and just got embarrassed by d rod in the later rounds. Ater being cut, he had a terrible fight against the very washed diego sanchez. Now, on second rewatch, lee actually dominated this fight from start to finish BUT the fight was horribly boring & so the only moment people remember is diego tearing Lee’s acl with the first kick he threw. Definitely a very bad look there but at the same time he didnt struggle at all outside of that moment. Despite winning, that was not a performance that made me think lee has any future in the ufc really. Im not sure what has really changed since he left the ufc. I will say tho, im not totally sold on rinat. Sure he has a nice record and win streak but hes never been that impressive to me. His striking is really sloppy. Sure he has good power & is aggressive but he gets hit a lot (when hes not wrestling his opponent) and is pretty sloppy; he just spams the same 1-2 combo over and over. His wrestling is pretty good, but at the same time he does minimal damage and also hasn't really fought anyone who can wrestle. Even going back and watching the michailidis fight, rinat was actually struggling to hold him down and michalidis was defending perfectly before gassing like he always does. The reason this is interesting to me is because kevin lee is actually a really good grappler. His wrestling has always been great & he has outgrappled very good fighters before like RDA and do bronx. The issue is always the cardio with lee. But while hes fresh i think he could present some issues for rinat. I also think lee is the better striker, but his defense has alwasy been pretty bad so hes liable to be clipped. Im going with rinat because its impossible to trust lee, but i woukldnt be totally shocked by an upset; im just not sold on rinat yet. 
Santos vs Rosa  Rosa DEC 
Dont care at all. **** fight that somehow got worse with the fight change. Rosa is one of the most boring fighters on the roster & santos hardly wants to fight anymore (also very boring in her own right); shes been so washed post pregnancy. Picking rosa because she can wrestle & is also younger and not washed. Going to 145 also likely hurts santos more than it hurts rosa 
Petrovic vs Carolina  Petrovic SUB RD 3 
Interesting signing here; petrovic is one of the rare wmma signings the ufc makes who is actually good. Now, she does have a lot of growth to do, but for where shes at shes been super impressive. My two qualms with her are her striking, and her chin. Now, she has made a llot of improvements in her striking but the problem is, shes not a striker by trade so shes still awkward. She has done a really good job of throwing more volume & in her last two fights has looked great; super aggressive and throwing tons of volume. We’ve seen time and time again that this strategy helps you win so many fights at the ufc level even when it shouldnt. Despite the offensive improvements, her defense is still lacking. She doesnt move her head all that well & also has a really **** chin; ive seen her badly dropped twice now. She has a good recovery but man she has been badly dropped by some pretty weak shots. I mean wozniak flash koed her with an elbow in their last fight. Now i seriously doubt carolina is the one to chin her but it is wmma so who knows. What makes petrovic so good tho is her grappling. She is a solid wrestler but has really really good grappling. When she gets on top she is super dominant & doesnt let you get back up; she has drowned her last two opponents with her grappling. Carolina is just a bad fighter. She does have some good qualities like her size and kickboxing, but she is just simply not good. She is super slow and has awful defense. She just relies on being tall for defense. She also HATES pressure, and ivana has been looking nothing but aggressive in her last few fights. Carolina also has no ground game at all. Her tdd has held up, but thats mostly from the loopy fight & also she is very lanky which does help. I also dont think ivana has amazing wrestling, but she will chain wrestle & is also adding nuances to her wrestling each time out (for example shes started to integrate trips into her game recently) so i think she should be fine. Im still a little worried about that chin but petrovic has all the tools to beat carolina here. 
Brito vs Wilson  Brito KO RD 1 
What a terrible ******* replacement this is. I mean its actually insane how far removed wilson is from even being close to ufc level. Like theres bad fighters the ufc brings in on short notice, and then theres this guy. Wilson is 34, has 7 losses already, hasnt beaten anyone notable, and has numerous bad & embarrassing losses. For starters, just last year he got koed by the ghost of iishihara, who was never even good to begin with. Wilson trains with wonderboy & fights the same way. He has that bouncy karate style… but thats about it. Sure, hes got some flashy kicks and whatnot but he lacks any of the technical skills that make wonderboy great. He also loves to throw hands & well, his boxing is terrible. He throws his punches wmma style & has no head movement whatsoever. In fact, he is just a terrible nail in general; if you pressure him, he wilts. Now shockingly, hes actually more of a grappler. He has no wrestling & his bjj is just terrible. I will say tho, he does have a really tight squeeze; he has put a lot of people to sleep really quickly with his chokes. Now brito is not someone i really rate that highly, but he is just leagues above this guy. He hits hard as **** and is super aggressive. Hes gonna come out guns blazing & wilson will have no idea how to deal with the pressure. Brito can also take him down and sub him pretty easily as well too. The only good thing to come out of this fight is the fact that brito will probably meme ko wilson
Romanov vs Ivanov  Ivanov DEC 
Really shocked to see two ranked heavyweights buried in the prelims. Im not complaining at all because this is going to be a painfully bad fight, but usually ufc is ready to smack fights like these as co-main events so good on them for doing the right thing for once. HW fights are almost always nightmares to pick, but man this one is a real head scratcher. You have a fraud with a bad gas tank in romanov but on the other hand we have a nothing burger who wins by doing the bare minimum. Realistically, i think ivanov is better everywhere, but he is soooo lethargic and has no killer instinct, so he could lose by simply not doing anything. Romanov is a very very weird heavyweight. He has a nightmare style for most guys; very aggressive wrestling but its unique in that he doesnt do traditional wrestling; his takedowns are all involving picking the dude up & violently slamming them to the ground. When romanov gets on top, he has a diverse submission game and devastating gnp. However, he has been fraud checked very badly. He looks so scary in round 1, but if you survive/offer some resistance to his game, he starts to fade & fade very hard at that. In fact, he has about 1 round of cardio before death gassing & quitting. I thought he could rebound from the tybura loss, especially since he dominated round 1 & looked in phenomenal shape, but then the volkov fight happened; that may be one of the worst performances i have ever seen. He didnt look like he trained, came into the fight in the worst shape of his career, and quit after one failed takedown attempt. Idk if he was injured or what but he was an absolute shell of himself and it was such a bad performance that it leads me to believe he either didnt train or came into the fight severely injured. Either way, really cruel matchmaking to fight the guy who beat tybura, after losing his 0 to tybura. Judging off this last performance, it seems like balgoy should win, but hes an enigma himself. Blagoy is just a strange fighter; hes a sambo guy who never uses it & instead wins fights by just doing slightly more than his opponent does. He doesnt have crazy power & relies on his ********ly good durability to just tank shots & march forward. I dont think blagoy has ever clearly won a fight in his life; every fight hes had in the ufc is super close & again he wins by just doing ever so slightly more than his opponent. However, i feel like his lack of urgency & how slow he is could cost him. I know he has the sambo background, but i think romanov can take him down and probably hold him there. The issue of course is does romanov have the cardio should the fight get extended (my guess is no). Im picking blagoy because he has crazy cardio for a hw & his durability is off the charts. However, weigh ins are really going to determine this pick; if romanov shows up in shape, I think he can totally win this fight, if not, hes gonna gas and lose
Kutateladze vs Brenner  Kutateladze KO RD 2 
Poor brenner went from a winnable fight to an almost guaranteed loss. Now, this will make up for the robbery win he got in his debut, but still must suck for him. I was actually kind of impressed with him against tukhugov. Again, he totally lost that fight but he did a good job of staying composed & didnt panic at all against a much better and much more experienced fighter. He did a really good job of being aggressive & landed some really good shots. His striking didnt look amazing but he stood toe to toe with a very good striker so thats something. We didnt get to see much of his ground game but from the limited tape ive seen, it seems solid. However, theres no point in breaking down his skills because guram is 100x better than him anywhere the fight goes. What i really like about guram is he has experience in multiple martial arts (kickboxing, muay thai, bjj, judo, wrestling, etc.) and he blends all of his skills perfectly. This is probably going to decision but i really think guram should absolutely maul this kid. His striking is so crisp. He could also outgrapple him but i think this one stays exclusively on the feet. Also, brenner should go back to his natural weight class of 145, hes already at a big size disadvantage as it is, but guram is a huge lightweight, so its gonna be even worse than normal. 

Magomedov vs Strickland  Strickland DEC 
When this first got announced i was so confused but after watching some tape on abus i think he is definitely good enough to earn this fight. Of course, its weird to see a relatively unknown prospect get a main event in his second fight, but he also got lucky & found himself in the right position. Its hard to get a read on his skill level since all his fights get canceled, but i do think he wouldve beaten everyone hes been booked against, so hes a top 10 level guy in my eyes. Abus is a european kickboxer for the most part. Super lanky and fast for the division. I really like his striking; he throws a lot of body kicks to the gut and mixes in head kicks as well. His boxing is really clean and he does a good job of moving his head while throwing strikes to confuse the opponent on where hes gonna land. As the last name suggests, he does have some dagi wrestling in his back pocket. Of course, its nothing special but it is there should he need to use it. I think the length, power, and speed of abus could definitely cause issues for sean, but sean has all the experience here and a really weird style to prep for. He fights like hes sparring & his style looks terrible, but almost no one can effectively deal with it. He always has his hands down from his face yet has the best defense stat in mw history (lol). He also has really good tdd as well so if abus cant get his way on the feet i doubt he will have wrestling success. I wouldnt be shocked by an abus win but i think the experience of sean will prevail

Ismagulov vs Dawson  Ismagulov DEC 
Really like this fight a lot. Damir is one of my favorite fighters and dawson is super underrated imo. Dawson has a very simple, ytet effective gameplan. He wants to take you down, take the back, and either grind you out for the round or sub you. He has improved a ton since leaving glory; his striking has improved a lot and also his bjj. Dawson is actually a pretty good striker imo.His kickboxing is really basic, but he does the basics really well. I also really like his eyes; he stays laser focused on his opponent & sees everything from a defensive standpoint. However, hes just not a striker by trade so he can get hit at times & will lose to better guys on the feet. I like his wrestling a lot too; much like hgis striking, its basic but effective. He will just chain wrestle his ass off until he finally gets you down; i mean he is just like glue, so unrelenting to get the takedown. When he does get the takedown, as i said earlier he will take the back and try to finish the fight. However, as good as i think dawson is, i think hes just outclassed here (seems to be the theme of the card lol). Damir may have gotten whooped in his last fight, but people seem to forget how skilled he is. Damir is such a good striker. Laser beam of a jab, very defensively sound, amazing head movement, and just so good at picking people apart. I think dawson is very solid on the feet, but that jab is going to give him a lot of issues on top of the fact that damir is just a better striker. I also doubt he can take down damir. Sure, arman ragdolled him, but thats one of the best wrestlers in teh division. And even then, damir defended 14 of his 21 attempts along with doing some ridiculous scrambles that only an elite wrestler would be able to take advantage of. For example, on the first td attempt, damir reversed arman into full mount, but arman was able to buck him off and reverse the position again. Thats just simply something only an elite wrestler can do. We saw dawson gas in the ricky glenn fight, despite having normally really good cardio, beacsye glenn was scrambling his ass off every time dawson took him down. Now, im not sure dawson can even get down damir in the first place, but even if he does, weve seen damir have super high level scrambles so i think he will be fine. If dawson starts to miss on that, he will gas badly. Im not gonna tota;lly count out dawson because he has a lot of skill, but i think damir is just simply better.

Griffin vs Morales  Morales DEC 
Im leaning morales currently but man i really feel like griffin has a shot here. When I went back and watches morales’s tape, he looked wayyyyy worse than I remember; like really freaking bad. He has a lot of natural talent, but also a lot of holes that need to be fixed/could get exposed here. For starters, the striking defense. Morales keeps his hands at his waist at all times & has no head movement whatsoever. As a result, he gets rocked in every fight he has. This is a code red against someone like griffin who has insane power for the weight class. To make up for this, morales has really good power and a long frame for the division. His boxing is pretty clean; really sharp jab, fast hands, and his punches are really hard to see coming at times. His output is also lacking at times, and he tends to fall behind at moments because of his striking defense. However, much like griffin does, hes able to steal rounds by landing hard shots. I think he is definitely a better striker than griffin, but griffin has never had a fight that wasnt close, win or lose. Griffin is a perfect example of tons of physical gifts, but no idea how to fight. He has insane power for the division & fast hands, but very poor technical skills. His fights are always super close because he will drop his opponent badly in the first round, and then let them back into the fight. The majority of his wins go like this & then hes able tobarely win fights by stealing rounds with power shots. Not a great style to employ but against someone so green like morales it could pose some problems. Of course, morales isnt just a striker, he has wrestling too. I actually quite like his wrestling, he uses a lot of suplexes & his entries are really fast. Griffin has some decent wrestling but not as good as morales’s. Morales will also have a cardio advantage here; griffin has two solid rounds of cardio and then fades hard round three. Hes super durable but i could see morales finishing him. However, I wouldnt rely on it because he is very tough. Overall, I think hes gonna get tested really hard here. He should win but i wouldnt be shocked if he loses; griffin is super durable and hits really hard. I think we could see morales get chinned here too as well. Id avoid going crazy heavy on this fight because theres much better spots.
Lipski vs Gatto  Gatto SUB RD 2 
No idea why this is on the main card over some of the bangers in the prelims, but disney diversity quota is gonna do its thing i guess. I guess this fight is kind of interesting? Lipski is a strange fighter; she either is the worst female on the roster or looks like a contender and theres no inebtween. Lipski comes from a muay thai background and her striking is super clean. She uses a ton of kicks and hits really hard. The problem however is lipski cannot grapple for ****. If you get her down once, the fight is pretty much over. I mean this is a girl who got finished by antonina shevchenko for christs sake. Her tdd looked awesome last fight & she scored a big upset, but I think we all (myself included) overrated jj’s wrestling just because she took down blanchfield. I will say, lipski did look improved, but at the same time jj cant wrestle & was taking just awful shots in general. Gatto doesnt have good wrestling either tho, which does scare me a little. Her tda is really bad and often times it takes her a while to get you down. However, she loves inside trips and I have a feeling lipski doesnt know how to defend those, so theres a path for gatto. If she cant get her down, im not sure she can win. I just dont know how to feel about gatto’s striking. Shes roided to the gills and has a really long frame, so that helps. She has a really sharp jab and some decent kickboxing, but nothing that really wows me. Lipski is a way better striker. However, what makes gatto good is her bjj. Her bjj is actually phenomenal. She doesnt grapple in a traditional way, actually preferring to do most of her work off of her back. Now this likely wont work against lipski because if she ends up on top, best believe shes gonna stand back up. However, gatto is just so good on the mat. Her kimura from guard is her best weapon, but she also has triangle chokes & will try to sweep you if you attempt to get up. She will also take your back and rude out rounds there. Ive even seen her attempt armbars while in back control, which is super impressive to me. The point im trying to make is if she gets the fight down, her bjj is too good for lipski to handle and thats what im banking on.
Saint Denis vs Bonfim  Bonfim KO RD 3
Really gotta feel bad for BSD. Ufc was giving him a freebie so he could then turn around for ufc paris, but now hes going home with a loss & may not even be able to fight in paris. I actually quite like BSD but this is just an absurd replacement fight. On rewatch of his tape, I was not as impressed with his striking as I remember. Sure, he hits kinda hard and is super aggressive, but he is wayyy too reliant on his chin & also when he goes full ape mode his striking gets really predictable. Now, BSD might be one if the most durable humans on earth, but you cannot rely on your chin at the ufc level. He has been able to tank everything so far, but BSD takes some massive shots every fight & eventually its gonna cost him. I also really like BSD’s grappling. He has really good entry on his shots & when he gets you down, he triangles the legs khabib style before trying to pass or rain down gnp. He has a good bjj game as well to compliment his wrestling. However, anything he does, bonfim is better at (outside of pure grappling). We’ve seen bonfim face an aggressive guy 3 times now (abbasov, mcchinny, and now bsd) and each time hes just destroyed them. Bonfim is just so technical its insane; even when his opponent blitzes in his face hes able to stay composed and counter. Bonfim’s boxing is just insane; he hits so hard and mixes his shots up everywhere. Very very good counter striker too; he sees everything his opponent throws and counters with full power shots. Like I sad, BSD has terrible defense and gets really predictable at times so i think bonfim will destroy him on the feet. The grappling is interesting, but man bonfim seems to really have improved in that area. I was not expecting him to not only defend mckinney’s takedowns (think what you will of him, mckinney is still an incredible wrestler) but actually outwrestling him was mind blowing to me. He seems to have really strong hips and has really good cage wrestling as well ( which is where BSD’s grappling is strongest). I really like BSD so my only hope is that bonfim doesnt beat him too badly. But given his all action style, I worry he could be headed for another zaleski style beating; maybe not as bad but still, i think hes gonna take a lot of damage here.
Ruziboev vs Ferriera  Ruziboev SUB RD 2
Another super interesting fight. Ruziboev was a very unexpected signing but a welcomed one nonetheless. His style is one of the most unique ive seen but im not totally sure how effective it is at the ufc level. Ruziboev is primarily a grappler, but unlike what you’d expect from a guy with that last name, he doesnt have great wrestling at all really. Its a very weird style, ruziboev allows himself to get taken down pretty much at will (joel alvarez style) but then hes just able to win. His main method of attack is letting you mount him, and then he hits a sweep and get top control. Now this sounds like a really bad strategy(and i think it is) but his sweeps are amazing; he has hit it on every single person ive seen him fight. However, his last loss (4 years ago) came because his opponent was able to not get swept and just mauled him with wrestling, so it definitely shows a bug hole in his game. His bjj is also sick; his favorite move is the kimura from bottom. He has super strength and just cranks that sub really hard. If he isnt subbing you, when he gets tpop control he has really good gnp. On the feet, ruziboev is sold, but nothing special. He uses his length well and has solid power but his striking isnt anything mind blowing. Then on the other hand we have ferriera. Ferriera is a spark plug & ultra explosive. His striking isnt exactly technical, but he hits insanely hard. His striking attack is mostly punches but he has some really good leg kicks as well. One wrinkle to his game that he hasnt shown yet is his wrestling. Bruno is actually a pretty good wrestler; he doesnt do traditional wrestling tho, all his moves are high amplitude and explosive. He will get ahold of your legs & then pick you up and slam you. I have no doubt he will be able to get down ruziboev (if he even decides to wrestle) but i actually think ruziboev will be able to reverse him. I saw bruno fight a guy similar to ruziboev in that hes a very tall mw with bad wrestling & he was able to sweep bruno pretty easily. I also am just not sure on bruno’s gas tank. He has never gone deeper than 6 minutes into a fight, and given his insanely explosive style, I doubt he has great cardio if the fight gets extended. If he wrestles, ruziboev will have to be careful on the ground because bruno’s gnp is devastating. Another interesting thing to factor is ruziboev has been training at renzo gracie philly for the past year; a very good grappling gym known for their bjj and cage wrestling. Ruziboev already has really high level bjj, but the wrestling is missing. Spending a year at RGP with all those good grapplers & their cage wrestling circuit, he could come into this fight looking very improved. If ruziboev learns wrestling defense or at least some offensive wrestling, this dude could be seriously good. Either way, im still not totally sold on brunno so ill go ruziboev.

Problem? 

* Edited at 06.25.2023, 10:53 AM ET *