UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Rosa vs. Dumont
Norma Dumont, DEC
Dumont at +125 seems free

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* Edited at 04.16.2023, 12:21 PM ET *

Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Sergei Pavlovich, TKO, R1
Blaydes should win this 9/10 times. That being said Sergei R1 KO in the small apex cage.

Song vs. Simón
Ricky Simón, DEC
Simone is on a vengeance streak to hurt Merab, Yadong is only in his way.

Song vs. Simón
Yadong Song, TKO, R1
Love this fight. It’s so close too. You got two of the best guys at 135, I think that this fight 100% depends on Songs takedown defense and Ricky’s chin. If Simon can land takedowns in the 1st round immediately then there will be problems. However if Ricky gets overzealous on the feet Song will put him out, that’s what I’m banking on

Lucindo vs. Walker
Iasmin Lucindo, TKO, R2
Total mismatch. I picked Lucindo as a dog against Yazmin and that didn’t pay off, but she showed how good she is. Not only that she’s only 21 and is better than Brogan everywhere. She’s gonna do what she pleases, on the ground and on the feet

Wells vs. Semelsberger
Matt Semelsberger, TKO, R2
Close fight, I might switch but for right now I’ll edge Semelsburger to KO a gassed Wells even though there’s a great chance Jeremiah can spark him

Yahya vs. Jackson
Montel Jackson, DEC
Hard to say here whether or not Jackson gets a finish. But he should definitely win, he’s got advantages in everything except pure Jiu Jitsu. Which of course for Yahya is outstanding, however I think Montel will nullify that with ease

Rosa vs. Dumont
Norma Dumont, DEC
This is the “who cares” fight of the card

Usman vs. Tafa
Junior Tafa, TKO, R1
Tafa is an interesting case. Very green in mma but he’s very talented. Hopefully he comes through with a big KO over the bummy Usman

Marshall vs. Gomis
William Gomis, DEC
Initially I was on Marshall but I think experience will play a factor here. That could end up biting me in the ass though

Cachoeira vs. Silva
Karine Silva, SUB, R1
Zombie Girl is an overachiever, however I think she’ll be brought back to reality here. Silva is an excellent submission artist with good striking. As long as she avoids the brawl this is easy money

Danaa vs. Hiestand
Batgerel Danaa, TKO, R1
I don’t trust Hiestands chin with the power of Danaa. It’s just a bad combination

Blaydes gonna win here via ground and pound. If it is by decision no way he lose

Soooo not sold on this girl.

Her record is meh. She beat a string of girls with records like 0-0, 0-0, 0-3, 0-0-1, 0-0, 0-1. Then you see a 7-2 and click the profile to see the girl who is now 8-6, retired, and does not look like any sort of athlete. 

Then you see her finally fight some okay competition and she loses both fights. You watch the tape and the first girl basically pulled guard and then hit a knee bar. Then she lost a decision to a girl where most of the fight was on the ground. She basically spent too much time playing jiu-jitsu in a MMA fight and lost. She has good creative jiu-jitsu, but she hasn't dominated with it whenever she has faced decent competition. 

Then she goes back to fighting a couple cans. She tore apart a girl's knee with a heel hook, but that girl was a 36 year old former boxer who looked lost trying to defend leg attacks. And she followed that up by fighting a 42 year old with a 12-7-2 record in her retirement fight.

Somehow that got her on Contender Series. 

She again showed creative jiu-jitsu off her back, but spent 4 minutes being controlled in the 1st round. She sold out for the takedown in the 2nd, didn't get it, and looked like she was about to gas if she didn't secure that guillotine. There was still 3 minutes left in round 2 and if she can't handle that pressure her opponent was putting on her then she can't handle the pressure Zombie Girl will bring. I will say, her opponent was jacked, but has one of those crazy inflated records you see with a lot of recent Asian fighters. Also important to note Silva was 0-2 on the takedown attempts.

The Bothelo fight was her best performance. It was impressive how quick she locked up that choke. She didn't look great on the feet though - lots of phantom strikes that didn't really have much impact. 

I honestly think this girl is sub or bust. Zombie Girl loves to let people put her in submissions, but Zombie Girl has also gotten out of a lot of submissions. This fight is going to be exactly like that Amorim/Hughes fight. Silva is gonna look for that takedown. She probably gets one, but she might have to work for it. If she doesn't sub Zombie Girl with that first or second attempt look out. 

I hate Zombie Girl and she loves to give her neck up, but I watched about 5 of Silva's fights and she didn't get hit with any heat like Zombie Girl is gonna throw. I really don't know how she reacts if she gets cracked on the mouth to start the fight.

I think someone gets finished in this fight, but I am not sold it's Zombie Girl - I have faded Zombie Girl in literally every other fight she has had. I wish I watched tape earlier and could have gotten that +210 on Zombie Girl because I probably won't play her now that it's under +150. 

If Silva locks up the quick sub in this one then I am 100% fading her next fight. She always opens at some crazy high odds, but her tape isn't great and it is against bad competition. It is fun to see people do things like rubber guard and attempt gogoplatas, but there is a reason why people don't attempt that at the UFC level. She is going to try and get cute with her BJJ in one of these fights and just get smashed by someone who remembers this is an MMA fight and not a BJJ match.

It's Silva by Sub or Zombie Girl by TKO and I am torn on which one it is.

@mrlzdik I really hate how stiff karine looks on the feet but she has no issue shooting for takedowns. For as bad as silva is I think once this hits the ground caochoiera is gonna be a fish out of water. She is so clueless on the mat 

@Ayy I don't necessarily disagree. That takedown she hit on Bothelo was nice, but overall her takedown game looked pretty meh. Lots of upper body takedowns, which Priscila can defend a little bit better than double and single legs. 

Priscilia was one second away from surviving and making it to the 2nd round against Gillian. I think Gillian's MMA BJJ is much better than this girl's. I don't feel confident in Priscilia surviving the 1st round in this fight, but if she does I think Silva is going to look so much worse in the 2nd and 3rd. She had the cardio to go to a decision once, but it was light paced grappling match. 

And let's not forget the two girls two sub Zombie Girl were Gillian and Valentina - not some scrubs. Luana Carolina and Meatball Molly tried to put every sub they could think of on Priscilia and couldn't finish. I think Silva's got slicker BJJ than Molly or Carolina, but she is overall much closer to their level than Gillian or Valentina. 

Zombie Girl looking bad on the mat is why I thought Lipski would beat her, but if she lands those same shots on Silva then Silva is gonna fold. 

Hmmm those are some really goods points. Gonna have to look into this more 

I went into tape expecting it would be a cake walk and then I just disliked Silva so much I started to think maybe, just maybe, Zombie Girl gets this done.

I will probably switch my mind multiple times on this fight as the week goes on. It's a tough one.

Sometimes I just try and fade a fighter I dislike on the wrong matchup, which is my fear on this one. Priscilia does love to put herself in subs so I see why everyone is on that. Amorim just put the fear of god in me about what happens when these girls who are first round sub or bust don't get that first round sub.

But this is also WMMA so I am probably already overthinking this one.

* Edited at 04.16.2023, 4:04 PM ET *

🤣🤣yeah overthinking happens a lot with low level wmma. I’m not sold on silva either, but in my head I really feel like a grappler should man handle cachoeira. I just really want cachoiera to lose because I’m tired of picking her fights wrong🤣🤣

I think overthinking is more of a problem if you betting women favorites tho, I don't think it bad betting the women underdogs if you understand that they're a good chance your bet loses because of the volitilty of women MMA

I'm more of a underthinker of WMMA, Just take the dogs sometime even if I have no idea of what going on

What's your guys obsession with burner accounts? I can promise you every burner account I've made has a 10 year suspension.

Just admit your an idiot.

I think everyone is forgetting that Serghei has a wrestling background