UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

And as there seem to be some fairly strong feelings about me posting my picks (not sure why, I am doing pretty much what everyone else on this thread does) I think I will not post in public anymore. Not looking for any gain from this myself, and I am not looking to argue with anyone or annoy anyone. I just genuinely enjoy looking at fights and posting my thoughts. Did not think that would piss anyone off but it looks like it does,

If anyone wants you can always look up my picks on my profile.

Won't be posting my bets either to avoid further annoyance. As for why I haven't picked anything yet, I am still watching tape after all I have a full time job and a busy life so I do have other things to do as well.

* Edited at 04.18.2023, 11:24 AM ET *

Montel is a lock, there’s no way he loses to Yahya he’s rightfully a massive favourite. 

Just one word to address what you are saying, accusing me of plagarising Santinos picks? Really? I think I will address this because I respect Santino and Brandan a lot and consider them to be really nice people so I want to respond to this.

I don't know if anyone remembers this because it was a while ago. When Santino and Brandan had just started their podcast and they were pretty much unknown on here and in the MMA capping circles I was probably the first person on here to know about them and the person who actually promoted them on here. I got Santino's permission and posted links to their podcast on the Tapology threads.  I did this because I thought their analysis was excellent and with Santinos experience as a coach (he was not that well known at the time in MMA analysis) it was obvious he had a lot of insight that was really valuable to us. 

I wanted you guys to be able to benefit from that and know about it so I linked their podcasts on here and promoted them as much as I could. Why on earth would I do that if I was trying to plagarise them? I would just have kept quiet and not told anyone about them, instead I wanted you guys to have access to them as well.

They are now pretty famous and popular and I could not be more happy for them. They deserve all the credit and popularity they get and I am happy to have been involved in a small way in helping them grow their audience.

And Baremaras, really dude you need to grow up, you seem very insecure. Do you feel threatened by me for some reason? Can't think of any other reason you would be so annoyed by this. For what it's worth I think your picks are excellent and probably better than mine. I have had a pretty bad run recently with my picks, which is why I stopped posting my breakdowns for a while, so I have no doubt you have better picks and reads than I have. I have only just started posting again recently so again I have no idea why this annoys you so much.

I don't consider this a competition, I'd like us all to do well with picks and bets. And the more people we have on here posting their views and analysis the better in my opinion. I just like talking fights and sharing my views and I have always liked to share any information I have with you guys (I do know quite a few people connected with the UFC, especially in the Australian MMA scene).

Anyway that's all I am going to say about that. I don't want to be arguing with people on here.

* Edited at 04.18.2023, 12:23 PM ET *

Mate, just ignore these guys and keep posting your bets here. I'm sure most of the guys really like your readings on the fights. I don't know why Baremaras started going after you... I like his mma knowledge, but he seems to love some altercations sometimes lol

Montel is a potential top 15 guy while Yahya is a washed up veteran that is only still in the UFC because he beat bums in his last few fights 

I wouldn’t say washed up, he’s still relatively skilled. Just so happens that he’s older & his durability isn’t what it used to be. If he gets the fight to the ground, his bjj is really good 

I remember when Mendes fought Yanya some 12 years ago.  It's amazing that he is still around.

This is unbelievable. Rusty, you shouldn't care what one person on the forum thinks. You planned a new series of surest bets, and after just one period you stop publishing. Damn it's just betting on fights, nothing else. :)

My bets this weekend:
Bobby Green ML  (high output, more signif. strikes, jabs, cardio, speed)
Curtis Blaydes ML (Pavlovich is a fraund, He's Greco-Roman wrestler, it's not that useful as freestyle wrestling)
Curtis Blaydes +0,5 takedown

I don't think Pavlovich gets taken down a single time and I don't think this fight hits the 2nd round. 

Blaydes is going to struggle with the reach disadvantage and will be taking a nap. 

An interesting fight to compare is Blaydes-Rozenstruik. Blaydes was tentative of the power, and didn't wrestle enough, and kind of stayed content to land 1-2s, and still his eye got busted up and he seemed in danger anytime he was going backwards.

I think the brute strength wrestler Blaydes could definitely get a takedown and start landing elbows for a stoppage, but I think its more likely he tries to stay outside, eats some big shots whenever they come together, and winds up getting blitzed whenever he tries to go backwards. 

* Edited at 04.18.2023, 3:12 PM ET *

Also love Dumont at near plus money. And Bruno Silva. I'm just so skeptical of Brad Tavares. He's a name that comes with some kind of weird prestige, but it's almost always just using his name to pump up the guy that beat him. Romero, Whittaker, Izzy, Shabazyan, Dricus all took a big leap after beating him. But I've always been waiting to find out why Tavares is expected to win some of these fights. He's decent and rounded, but doesn't excel at anything.

And there's a chance Silva just had a weird ass fight last time out. He didn't look right. Looked exhausted after a minute. Remember, this is the same Bruno Silva who was on a 7 fight win streak and then fought Poatan to a near standstill in basically a kickboxing fight.

Silva-Dumont parlay is +340. Add Danaa and it's +650...

* Edited at 04.18.2023, 3:50 PM ET *

The only dude scarier than Pavlovich is Ngannou. The only reason why he's a little less scary is because he doesn't knock dudes unconscious for 5 minutes after 1 punch, and it takes 4-5 punches to get there, but his boxing is really good. Also, once he lands one clean, the other dude usually gets hurt enough to start swinging like a madman because they know if they get hit one or two more times, the fight is over. His punches are more straight than DC claimed them to be against Lewis because it seems like he's always landing clean

Most of all, in the fights of Pavlovich so sorry that you do not understand the russian language 
and cannot appreciate how masterpiece the translation was
I don't know if this funny translator got fired, but I swear he gave out masterpieces.

I thought the bald dude that speaks like every language from that region is the dude that translates. He's no where as cool as Fabiano tho. He's the GOAT of UFC translators

I like where your heads at fren. Silva and Dumont being plus money immediately jumped out at me too. 

Fabiano is the Chad. He is in Sankos pants 100%

Hey I agree with Silva. He is better than Tavares.

But Dumont does nothing.