UFC 282: Błachowicz vs. Ankalaev

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I'm so torn over this fight. Every fiber of my being is telling me Mitchell has the easier path to a win but Topuria might be one of the most impressive fighters I've ever watched. His last fight against Herbert was something you just don't see all the time. Topuria was on his way to getting finished in that fight, realized it, and then turned on another gear and just absolutely smoked Herbert.

Bryce meanwhile hasn't really been in any real danger yet in any of his fights and is coming off a quality win himself. In my mind, Topuria can wrestle with Mitchell but probably not for 15 straight minutes. Mitchell can also strike with Topuria, but not for long stretches.

The two key stats that jump out in my mind are average fight time and the takedowns attempted/defended. Mitchell's fights are almost twice as long as Topurias (13+min vs 7+min avg) which is probably why Topurias current take down defense sits at 100%.

That stat will change in this fight. Mitchell will eventually get him down. But for how long? Will he be able to take him down multiple times? Can Topuria negate some of this grappling by throwing up submission attempts to get back to his feet?

I really don't want to change my pick the day of the event as it almost never works but I'm leaning towards doing so. Topuria has all the tools to be a champion. 

I think Topuria is overlooking Mitchell and only has his mind set on Paddy which could be a huge mistake. Handle business first!

Dalcha looks juiced af at the ceremonial weigh-in, im worried about Edmen. Got him in one of my parlays.

Hellz yeah!

edmen is a lock bro, absolute monstruous left head kick ko incoming

Xtreme couture parlay is a lock. Edmen, ank, and Curtis all winning 

Błachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Magomed Ankalaev, SUB, R2
Magomed is better everywhere, why people don’t talk more about Jan quitting once he got taken down by glover is crazy. Magomed takes him down and submits.

Till vs. Du Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis, DEC
DDP is just the more active guy who isn’t out of place in this weight class. Darren won’t get finished cause he’s in decent shape but don’t see him winning in any department.

Perrin vs. Rosas Jr.
Raul Rosas Jr., SUB, R1
The wrestling pedigree of this kid is top tier, early submission incoming.

Shahbazyan vs. Lungiambula
Edmen Shahbazyan, DEC
Dalcha is the most live dog on the card, he’s suffered some brutal losses recently though and he fades quick

Curtis vs. Buckley
Chris Curtis, TKO, R2
Bounce back matchup for Curtis

Saaiman vs. Koslow
Cameron Saaiman, DEC
Kids top tier at such a young age

>calls dalcha the most live dog on the card but doesnt pick it

>proceeds to confidently pick curtis who's a pretty decent betting underdog himself


tapology users never fail to amaze me in their analysis

This is easily Topuria 

Bro why Mitchell? 

Your opinion on something. 

I haven't had time to tape Shabazyan. I remember him as a R1 fighter with no ground game who quits when it gets tough.

Dalcha seems to get finished in most his losses and is slow but is good in the clinch and has good judo. 

Why are you so confident in Edmun. He is a quitter

I wish OSP could of fought tonight. Three dudes pulled out on him. Philipe lins has pulled out of 7 fights already and he's only fought 3xs wouldn't be surprised if he gets cut soon

Topuria can absolutely win but I fail to see how Damon Jackson, Ryan Hall, or any other opponent he's faced even compare to Bryce's wrestling. Plus Mitchell showed in the Fili fight that he's fine being reversed and scrambling. As long as Ilia doesn't find Mitchell's "off" button, I think Bryce's non-stop grappling will wear him down for a late finish. 

Picked Magomed and Edmen but rooting for Jan and Dalcha.

+230 parlay
Moreno ponzi 1.5over,ankalaev to win,shahbazyan to win,saaiman to win and james metcalf to win

well right off the bat edmen is the younger, taller fighter with the better cardio (as weird as it sounds he does have better cardio) who has made the massive move to xtreme couture which is a camp known for taking raw young talent and shaping them up into complete fighters (look what they did to ngannou)

his losses IMO aren't even that bad because he was winning the first one and a half rounds against brunson and his loss to imavov who in his own right is an incredibly talented dude was him displaying terrible fight iq (jumped the guillotine for no reason and kept trying to grapple with him, ended up getting caught in a couple of submissions that destroyed his gas tank)

dalcha is old, weirdly has dropped a **** ton of muscle mass, gasses out incredibly quick, bad striking (as long as edmen stays away from the very obvious and predictable explosions with ****** movement that dalcha does, he should be fine) and his grappling advantage in this matchup is how good his judo background is but as we all know **** like judo, greco roman etc simply do not translate as good as freestyle and folkstyle wrestling in mma. dalcha will entirely rely on trips for takedowns and his top control isn't anything great either plus he lacks submissions in his game

on a more technical note, edmen posseses the absolutely perfect striking tools someone needs to beat dalcha. he's got incredible calf kicks that are going to slow down dalcha's movement, he's got whipping kicks to the body that are going to take the air out of dalcha and imo his most immediate way to victory is his super accurate left head kick he has. dalcha from what i noticed watching tape has a memey guard with memey striking defense and specifically leaves himself very blatantly open for the left high kick. edmen already has a left head kick ko victory on his record over a way better opponent in tavares so I basically expect a repeat of that, edmen getting dalcha thinking with left kicks to the calf and body and then as soon as it's imprinted into dalcha's brain, he's going to fake the body kick and go upstairs.

obviously I can't be 1000000000% confident because of what happened to reyes recently but to me dalcha is way worse than spann and edmen hasn't suffered the brutal ko losses reyes did + i think edmen has a higher ceiling than reyes so im still really confident in this matchup

* Edited at 12.10.2022, 11:47 AM ET *

people have critizied edmens heart