Russian invasion of Ukraine thread.

I'll post what's happening as it comes through for purposes of posterity. Doubt the veracity of what is posted here. Having lived through the Iraq war, I am sure that the vast majority of what gets reported will turn out to be either misinformation or outright ********. Posting because a lot of non-Australia members will be asleep, now. I'll report as much as I can.

So far the g****vine is:

Russia has indeed embarked on a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Air attacks, and ground forces. There has been at least one missile strike, there have been front-line Ukranian casualities ( have seen video, cannot post it here, too graphic).

Footage of an airstrike hitting Lutsk:

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1496721271907889155?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1496721271907889155%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpatriots.win%2Fnew


Belarus has thrown in with Russia/is issuing support.
Reports of Ukrainian air defence having shot down multiple Russian planes, either drones or fighters. 


Some other info:

* Edited at 02.24.2022, 1:29 AM ET *

Like I say, money talks and ******** walks, in the end.

It's being widely reported today that Israel is going to mercifully start exporting fuel to Europe to help ease the pressure caused by embargoing Russian oil.

Here's the the thing: Israel gets its oil from Russia. So basically, the Israelis are going to sell Europe Russian oil. At an inflated price. So basically Russia gets paid, the Israelis make a tidy profit, and everybody in Europe gets ******. Brilliant.

"

Executive Summary

Until recently, Israel was a net importer of fossil fuels, importing almost all of its oil and gas needs. Oil exploration has continued in Israel since the discovery of the first well in 1947, but today imported oil meets over 99% of the domestic oil demand. However, recent discoveries of offshore natural gas reserves have transformed Israel from being a net importer to a self-sufficient and an exporter of natural gas. While these offshore discoveries offer many advantages to Israel, they also present new challenges. Israel must find markets to export the surplus gas to, while cheap gas is already flooding the market from the U.S., Australia, and Russia. The U.S. and its large energy corporations serve as key partners in operations, significant shareholders, and an arbiter in export negotiations with Arab neighbors. 

Coal-generated power is gradually diminishing and accounted for only 30% of Israel’s power in 2019 compared with 60% in 2015."

https://www.trade.gov/energy-resource-guide-israel-oil-and-gas

* Edited at 05.26.2022, 4:47 PM ET *

"Israel's relationship with natural gas has significantly evolved over the past 15 years: until 2012, Israel imported its gas from Egypt, but gradual discoveries of larger natural gas reserves in Israel waters have led the country to its current position as a self-sustaining gas producer and exporter."Feb 27, 2022,

* Edited at 05.26.2022, 4:46 PM ET *

former soviet nations is not russia, egypt is not russia and israel is not russia

* Edited at 05.26.2022, 4:46 PM ET *

"At present, Israel’s gas supply mainly comes from two primary natural gas fields off the western shore of the country: Tamar, which contains approximately 10.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and Leviathan, which contains 22 trillion cubic feet – enough to last the country for decades at its current level of gas expenditure."

* Edited at 05.26.2022, 4:46 PM ET *

the fact that georgia and azerbeijan are probably importing it from russia is not that important if you consider israel producing its own oil now

@Freman as I understand it Israel will be exporting Oil, which isn't the same as natural gas. Oil is about more than just petrol, it's mostly about petrochemicals and plastics. They're different substances and can't be used interchangeably. For example to make asphalt, you need crude oil. Propane is made from crude, and so is diesel. Waxes, oils, lubricants etc also. None of these things can be produced from natural gas as far as I'm aware. Petrol can be made from natural gas.

Australia has huge natural gas reserves but we're still dependant on oil imports. We do produce some domestically, about 20%, but we import from Malaysia and elsewhere mostly.I imagine Israel is kind of in the same boat.  This is why 'going green is just a pipedream. Basically the entire artifice of human civilisation is made of and runs on oil.

* Edited at 05.26.2022, 4:59 PM ET *

whatever they are going to export, it will hurt Russia to some scale, which is fine 

* Edited at 05.26.2022, 5:02 PM ET *

though Israel has been a mf'er as well

Not really. It will kind of be in equilibrium, because Israel is still importing oil from Russia and the value of crude is really high. Basically what will happen is that the price increase will flow on to consumers which really isn't good for anybody.

Neon is the real prize for Russia in Ukraine now. The largest Neon production plant in Ukraine is in Mariupol which was the first major city the Russians annexed. It also features the largest sea port. It made sense for them to throw a lot of resources at it to capture it, which they have done.

Neon is actually very rare as an element--at least on Earth. Most of the world's neon comes from Ukraine. It's critically important, especially because you can't make microchips without Neon.

This is why I think Odessa has to be the next target after Mariupol. If Russia captures Odessa they basically capture the majority of the world's neon supply chain, and the last port available to Ukrainian forces. They will push hard for it after Donbas is secured.

In fact if there's any hope to be had in this whole fiasco, it's that I'm 99.9% sure that the war will end in Odessa. Once Russia secures that, they will have no Reason to push forward. There's really nothing in the capital Russia needs nor wants. All the goodies are in Donbas, crimea, mariupol and odessa.

* Edited at 05.26.2022, 5:14 PM ET *

Hmmm....

seems like 3 months was enough to make west 1. to get used to that and 2. to start thinking money more

* Edited at 05.29.2022, 5:33 PM ET *

@Fremen apparently Russia has blocked the supply route of grain--which is stored in Odessa-- from Ukraine to the broader EU and Europe is expecting a food crisis imminently as a result. Ukraine is kind of the breadbasket of Europe. It accounts for 15% of all the world's grain and nearly 60% of things like corn, barely etc in the European market.

Another reason why I believe Russia has to go for Odessa. But I do believe the war will end there.

As predicted, wheat prices have been exploding the last few weeks.

Here's my next prediction: Oil price pain is nowhere near from over, and is going to get worse. I'm going to say that it hits 150$ per barrel over the course of the next two months, and it would not shock me if it went higher than that.

* Edited at 06.07.2022, 10:40 AM ET *

@Baldric Eggling After the war ends, maybe after Odessa then, do you think sanctions will end and Russian athletes will be allowed back into many sports?

There are murmurs that the US, The EU are negotiating a ceasefire with Russia and that Zelensky is not part of those discussions, which would be ideal if true. Intel Slava Z has not posted any new information for two days, which is very odd, and seems to bolster the possibility of this.

I get you don't like the fella and with good reason but just maybe the leader of the country being invaded should maybe get a say. Sounds just like Europeans back in the day deciding the fate of countries behind their back