UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

i put zero thought or effort into this, it's a boring ass card except for the main event

lots of round 1s lol

For anyone wondering, Gadzhi does NOT have a 67 inch reach; he has a 71 inch reach, tap has it as a mistake 

Yeah i was thinking that was short lol

Laramie is a flyweight/bantamweight who got by at 145 because the Canadian regional scene sucks/maybe using peds. I don't see him having much success at 145 on a ufc level, especially not against basically the bigger, better, more experienced version of himself. 

Side note he's been busy over the last few years building a concrete company (from James Lynch interview about 6 weeks ago) so take what you will from that. Starting businesses is no walk in the park and takes a lot of your time that isn't being used training

Sabatini


He's been looking great in the wrestling game and trains at a gym stacked with talent. Philly,Philly!

Laramie is too reliant on his wrestling to win. You don’t want to bring the fight to the ground against sabatini. He’s shown questionable submission awareness against swain and Minner and sabatini is a more complete, better bjj practitioner than the two. I think he’s gonna catch Laramie at some point 

Luque TKO R3 over Muhammad

You could hedge this Luque ITD @ +135 and Muhammad by DEC for +275 and make a small profit guaranteed.  I think this is closer and Muhammad in a 3 round fight would worry me more.  He is still live to make a boring fight but I don’t think he could do it over 25 minutes with Luque.  I also like Luque by SUB for +900, as a very small play.

 Omargadzhiev DEC over Borralho

Not a ton of confidence here, as I like both fighters and their potential.  I won’t be betting this at all, although I do think it goes the distance (if I had to bet this).  I don’t blame anyone taking a shot on Borralho but I will go with the Dagestani who has crushed all of the last names ending in -ev and -ov.

 Fialho TKO R2 over Baeza

Again, I don’t have a ton of confidence here but I don’t hate Fialho by TKO for +335.  I think Baeza is a good striker with some power but he struggles against guys that can strike back.  He has been rocked his last few times, even before he got Matt Brown out he took a nice shot.  I like Fialho has moved over to Sanford MMA now and his cardio looked much better against Michel Pereira.  I don’t count out Baeza but I question his confidence and durability.  So, the pick is Fialho.

Bueno Silva DEC over Wu

Line is jacked up but Wu isn’t very good.  Bueno Silva has 0 TDAs in the UFC and is a grappler by trade.  That worries me because this could be closer than it should be.  But in the end, I am going with Bueno Silva to get a decision.

Sabatini SUB R2 over Laramie

Laramie isn’t a bad prospect but he is still so young and Sabatini is just getting better.  Laramie is too small for this division.  Unless this stays on the feet, I think Sabatini gets it by finish or decision convincingly.  If it stays on the feet, it could be a problem but… I don’t see that happening.

Lazzez DEC over Loosa

I don’t like how Lazzez looked his last time out and I don’t like that Loosa is on short notice.  Too many variables overall.  I don’t usually bet short notice fights unless it is like Islam vs Bobby Green or something where we know what the situation is.  I think Loosa would be my pick on a full camp.  I just will keep it simple to how I think this plays out most likely in my head.  Not confident at all.

Clark DEC over Knight

Knight gets a knockout in R1 or Clark gets a takedown, ground control, rinse/repeat boring decision.  I don’t like backing fighters that can’t commit to their professionalism on the scales (even though this is a HW fight apparently) and I think Knight is just a body builder who is a freak athlete more than someone I can trust.  So, Knight could land one for the ages early or Clark could grind it out.  I will take what I feel is most likely to happen and probably not bet it heavy, if at all.

Kianzad DEC over Lansburg

This is the second fight.  First one was Lina’s pro debut and Pannie’s second fight.  This one ends in Pannie again getting the victory.  I am pretty confident at -200 it is Kianzad by decision.  Lina is too old and Pannie shouldn’t have any problems here.

Klose DEC over Jenkins

The line is ****** but I like Klose at -115 to win by decision.  This is a mismatch.  The only worry would be Klose’s inactivity and how bad he got starched his last time vs Dariush (who he actually wobbled first in that fight).  Aside from a wild shot, I think this is an Arce vs Santos fight redone from last week.  Klose has fought way better competition and is the better fighter.

Ronson by SUB R3 over Garcia

I love Ronson in this spot! I think he is tilted from every interview I watched about the narrative that he is a cheater.  I don’t think Garcia is all that good and I love Ronson at +100.  I think Garcia is a tough latino fighter but Ronson will be bigger, stronger, and connect to get him down and he will find the neck.  I also like the +1400 number by SUB for Ronson!

Buday TKO R1 over Barnett

Barnett is a circus show.  Buday is too big and will wear him down and get the ground and bound TKO or find the submission.

Ogden DEC over Leavitt

Not a ton of confidence, but Ogden and Leavitt are both savvy with the ground game.  So, I will take Ogden the better striker to edge out Leavitt here.  Leavitt is live for a sub at any time, but I will take Ogden.

Nunes DEC over Hughes

Hughes has fought better competition but has looked so terrible that I can’t back her.  Nunes just needs to survive her cardio to win 2 rounds.  I see this by decision but nothing I want to wager on.

Alateng DEC over Croom

Croom coming down a weight class at his age is something I don’t like.  Alateng just needs better fight IQ than he has shown his last couple of times out.  Don’t grab the cage and go for take downs.  That is the path to victory.

 

Good luck everyone!

* Edited at 04.13.2022, 1:43 PM ET *

@sabbath further more, sabatini is a renzo gracie black belt, pan am champ, and a combat sambo silver medalist lol 

And also Laramie tried to take down a guy with 20 first round guillotines. That’s the kind of submission awareness I was talking about. Swain is also a can and Laramie kept walking into his sub attempts. With sabatini being so complete on the ground, if he gets Laramie in any sub, he’s probably tapping him out

* Edited at 04.13.2022, 1:15 PM ET *

@sabbath haha yeah I saw that and was shocked. Never fade sambo guys 

Sabbath I didn't say there isn't good Canadian fighters, I said the Canadian regional scene isn't that good. That's the other 99.5% of Canadian fighters that never go anywhere past that level. I didn't even think this woulda been controversial to say I thought it was kinda widely accepted the Canadian regional scene is low quality. 

And also no it's doesn't surprise me he beat jourdian. Joursain has problem with wrestling up until today. So someone whose wrestling is their bread and butter beating jourdain early in his career isn't shocking. 

Started doing this free info pack for the upcoming fight cards. Includes stats, facts, betting lines along with fight week media and some great podcasts.

Hope you find it useful, let me know what you'd like to see added in the future!


https://www.craft.do/s/4VOf3tuMQVOj7H

I really don’t get why they get to fighters fresh off the contender series to fight each other. They earn their right to fight experienced ufc fighters.

@lilhudy yeah it’s super strange matchmaking but both guys show promise and both are very well rounded so it should be a good fight. Or Gadzhi gets a dagestani takedown and just mauls Caio like he’s done in his last couple of fights