UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Alexander vs. Saragih
Lucas Alexander
Saragih got beat up by Jubli, he is an autofade. Lucas alexander is vulnerbale to good grapplers but usually is competitive with everyone else.

Parkin vs. Machado
Caio Machado, DEC
If Parkin tries pressuring Caio like szaflarski didn’t I see it going horrible for him machado fought cans on regional scene but thrived off pressure I see a sub or even a shocking ko Parkin has never fought someone his height neither he’s not outsizing machado

Matthews vs. Morales
Michael Morales, DEC
Interesting to see how they're bringing this guy along

Pearce vs. Brito
Jonathan Pearce, DEC
This might be the fight to watch on this card

Allen vs. Craig
Paul Craig, SUB, R5
Craig does it again

Matthews vs. Morales
Michael Morales, DEC
Morales outclasses him

Leavitt vs. Hooper
Jordan Leavitt, DEC
Choop got a future but Leavtt just too good at the moment

Almeida vs. Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan, SUB, R1
How is bro Brazilian but still got no Jitz, CLD's Ground game is criminally slept on because of how good he is on the feet

Parkin vs. Machado
Mick Parkin, DEC
Another W for English MMA

Johnson vs. Estevam
Rafael Estevam, DEC
Johnson cannot catch a break sheesh

Medic vs. Parsons
Uros Medic, TKO, R2
Acredito que o Medic se encontrou nesta categoria de peso. Acredito que conseguirá um nocaute em face do duríssimo Parsons.

Pearce vs. Brito
Joanderson Brito, TKO, R2
Caracas! Lutaça! Dois atletas duríssimos quem estão em uma ótima fase. Vou contra a maré… acredito em uma vitória do Tubarão.

Pearce vs Brito 🤯

Allen vs. Craig
Brendan Allen, SUB, R3
I dont see Allen having any trouble with Craig's grappling. I think Allen steamrolls Craig

Matthews vs. Morales
Michael Morales, DEC
I can see this fight going similar to the fight Matthews had with semelsberger where he's winning the round but gets hurt or dropped & ends up losing because of it. Morales is green but he has good durability, cardio, power and I don't see him getting out grappled by Matthews

Leavitt vs. Hooper
Jordan Leavitt, DEC
Even though both guys are soy it'll actually probably be an entertaining fight.

Talbott vs. Aguirre
Payton Talbott, DEC
I think talbott could be something special. He's giant for bantamweight I have no idea how he makes it. Not just tall but solid framed. He fights at a good pace & doesn't slow down. Although he is hittable he just walks through shots & doesn't show any bruises or cuts which is crazy. I think he dominates here

Ribas vs. Pinheiro
Luana Pinheiro, DEC
I think pinheiro is a bit of a fraud but I'll have ribas terrible striking defense

Medic vs. Parsons
Uros Medic, DEC
Difficult fight to predict because Parsons is a dawg & a great striker but I think medic will have a lot of success at welterweight

Almeida vs. Duncan
César Almeida, DEC
Ducan is a little too flashy. I think Almeida is a better striker in a mostly standup fight

Motta vs. Ogden
Trey Ogden, DEC
Can't trust mottas trash striking defense

Parkin vs. Machado
Mick Parkin, SUB, R2
I think parkin is the better prospect

Pearce vs. Brito
Jonathan Pearce, DEC
Either brito gets an early finish or Pearce weathers the storm and wrestle ****s brito

Anheliger vs. Johnson
Chad Anheliger, DEC
Difficult fight to predict I think anheliger does more damage in a close split decision type fight

Johnson vs. Estevam
Rafael Estevam, DEC
Estevam is a strong grappler and while Johnson has has good grappling defense & gets up quickly after getting taken down, it looks like he almost gives up in fights whenever someone keeps trying to grapple him

Alexander vs. Saragih
Lucas Alexander, DEC
Both trash but jeka got out worked by Jubli which is pathetic

Leavitt vs. Hooper
Jordan Leavitt, DEC
This could turn into an entertaining grappling match.

Ribas vs. Pinheiro
Amanda Ribas, DEC
I think Amanda Ribas gets back in the win column here.

Tepid thinks that a fight between Hooper and Leavitt could turn into a grappling match. Thanks for your input 👍 

WBC Hooper mauls Leavitt imho.

Not finding myself a fan of many lines here for parlaying, at least not atm. Might stick to Bellator on friday and then just hit some props for UFC.

Anybody else think the Ogden line is wrong? I know Trey can be pretty low volume, but he's still a durable guy who is decent everywhere facing a glass cannon.

@Thesnake101 

More research is required, do your own obviously but here is a quick parlay.

Lucas Alexander, Trey Ogden, Amanda Ribas, Micheal Morales

Maybe don't do all 4 but, that's the line up so far.

Allen vs. Craig
Brendan Allen, TKO, R2
Allen via KO. Allen is better everywhere. Younger and hungrier. Craig doesn't take shots well at all.

Matthews vs. Morales
Michael Morales, TKO, R2
Morales via KO. Morales improves each fight. very clean striking when he is on.

Leavitt vs. Hooper
Jordan Leavitt, DEC
Leavitt via DEC. Hooper’s striking is awful.

Medic vs. Parsons
Uros Medic, TKO, R1
Medic via KO. Parsons is tough but gets hit took much.

Pudilová vs. Perez
Ailin Perez, DEC
Perez via Dec. Boring fight, she’ll shake her _ss at the end of the fight. Her Onlyfans subscriptions will rise. Paperbag needed though boys.

 telling people to put Trey Ogden in a parlay should have you criminally investigated

* Edited at 11.12.2023, 12:26 PM ET *

Literally so many better parlay peices than Trey Ogden; he might not even win

Honestly, I don't like many lines here for parlaying. Think I'll just stick to Bellator and then see if I can hit some props on this card later.

@AyyLmaonnaise 

what could possibly go wrong??? LOL

Motta isn't bad at all imo he should win this

Anybody got any insight on Estevam? Only tape I could find was his Contender Series fight. He looked solid in top control, but was curious if anyone's seen him in some striking exchanges

Almeida vs CLD 
CLD KO RD 1
I always like when kickboxers transition to mma but cesinha does not do it for me. I picked against him on dwcs not really knowing what to expect as there is no footage of his previous mma fights. He did show many new wrinkles to his game but something still feels off. For starters, while he did face his first real opponent, his opponent (despite being a striker) came into the fight already scared of cesinha’s accomplishments & tried to grapple literally within the first 20 seconds. Fernando is not a grappler by trade & as a result was making a ton of stupid mistakes. Fernando won round 1 but his grappling heavy gameplan lead to a clash of heads (3:30 at round 2 if you don’t believe me) which hurt fernando & caused him to pull guard, where he proceeded to lose the rest of the fight. Almeida won the fight but that headbutt clearly affected Fernando and caused him to get 10-8’d in round 2. I was surprised by how well rounded of a game Almeida showed in the fight but I don’t know how high to rate his grappling skills because Fernando showed really bad wrestling and grappling, getting reversed with ease on multiple occasions. On the other hand, definitely impressive to see that Almeida is not a fish out of water on the ground; I see him in the closed training sessions with Strickland and all the other mw/lhw at XC all the time so he is definitely putting in the work. Despite coming from a high level kickboxing background, I wasn’t blown away by his striking. His boxing looked very clean; you can see he has natural power and his combinations were very clean. However, he looked pretty slow on on the feet & his kicks looked very slow and low impact when he threw them; definitely a boxing heavy style of kickboxer. It also doesn’t look like he has fully adapted to fighting in a cage yet. Out in the open, he looked very poor; there was almost no head movement from him & there was virtually no lateral movement from him. He would just move forward and backwards. Against a super dynamic, lengthy striker with unorthodox movements (CLD) I think he is going to struggle a lot. I know people are really low on CLD after his last performance but Petrosyan is a very good mma kickboxer & that was also the first time CLD had ever been tested. Petrosyan’s kicks were giving CLD a lot of trouble but hes not going to have to deal with it as much against cesar. CLD’s dynamic movement is going to allow him to avoid being up against the cage and keep the fight in the open. While Cesar has no head movement, CLD’s isn’t much better but he at least makes up for it with his creative footwork, almeida is slow and very stationary. I also forgot how hard CLD hits when I was rewatching his tape. He throws full force with everything hes got and uses all sorts of wild kicks and knees. I think its also important to note the difference in experience. Sure almeida kickboxed at a high level & has shown understanding of the mma basics but hes only 4-0 while CLD will have twice that experience after this fight plus a 23 fight amateur career at the highest level. It may not seem like it because of almeida’s striking acumen but that experience is going to play a big difference. Also cesar is 35, it’s not like hes some young prospect transitioning to mma. He is physically out of his prime and has been kickboxing for a long time.




Parkin vs Machado 
Parkin KO RD 2
Im not personally sold on parkin like everyone else is but machado is god awful. Despite the majority of his wins being by submission, machado tries to be a striker. Hes allegedly a “black belt” in muay thai but he might as well have just paid for it because his striking is atrocious. His boxing is very poor & caio gets clipped all the time on the feet. He will throw some leg kicks but theyre low damage & very telegraphed. He has some grappling but its very low level bjj & hes only subbed senior citizens on the regional scene. His fight on dwcs was one of the worst of the season (saying something because this season of dwcs sucked ass) and also one of the worst fights in the shows history. He had a sparring match against an opponent whio didn’t know how to do anything. Instead of hunting for a finish, he just sparred with the guy for 15 minutes. What really pissed me off was how he seemed genuinely proud of himself that he took that guy to a decision. As I said earlier, I am not impressed with parkin. I know he looked good last fight but i think its important to look at the context. Pogues showed up like 30 pounds heavier & allowed parkin to dictate the pace, while also not pushing any action on the feet. The result was parkin outvoluming him for three rounds. Parkin’s striking seems okay but he does get hit a good amount. However, he can keep a pretty high output for three rounds so thats nice. He throws a lot of low kicks and has decent boxing. He does have grappling but im not super impressed with it. He trains with some very high level hw grapplers but they can’t fight for him; on his regional tape I’ve seen parkin taken down wby a gust of wind & reversed very easily by awful competition, so i am not the highest on his grappling. Despite this, I think this is a fight he should take fairly easy. Parkin’s skills are better everywhere & on top of this hes going to have the size advantage. Machado did bulk up but he should really be at 205 & he was getting outmuscled by some cans on the regionals. 



Alexander vs Sarah
Alexander KO RD 2


Im not really that high on alexander but i think he is going to very clearly win this fight. To keep it simple, he's fighting an indonesian; enough said. Anyone who has watched a road to ufc event knows that these guys don’t have what it takes to compete in the ufc. Jeka has pretty good power but that’s really where the good qualities end. Hes not technical at all, swinging big looping bombs & leaving himself open to be countered in the process. Another thing about these indonesian fighters is their grappling is nonexistent. We saw jubli of all people (a loss thats aging like milk btw) run through him on the ground. He got taken down with little resistance & once jubli got him down he just outclassed him on the mat. Alexander’s weakness is grapplers & people who pressure him, Jeka does neither. He will swing hard and march forward, but he doesn’t know how to be technical & will march forward. A technical striker like alexander who knows how to keep his range is going to give jeka a lot of issues. I honestly really like Alexander's striking; he is super dynamic & knows how to use his physical tools. Alexander has a bunch of flashy kicks & likes to pick you apart everywhere. His leg kicks and body kicks are especially brutal. While he doesn’t have many finishes, Alexander hits deceptively hard. In his fight before the ufc he broke kilburn’s arm when Kilburn tried to block a body kick. I think jeka is going to try and trade with him, which is going to result in another alexander masterclass. I really don’t think this will be competitive in the slightest



Pudilova vs Perez 
Pudilova DEC 

Im kinda shocked to see perez as the favorite. She looked really good last time out but it's very important to remember that she fought an absolute bum who showed up to collect a paycheck. Going back and watching her debut reminded me what happens when perez has to fight someone who can grapple. In all fairness, egger is a much better grappler than pudilova is but, perez showed a lot of really bad qualities in that fight. She showed that she is pretty clueless off of her back & she showed very low iq not waiting 5 seconds for the buzzer instead of tapping. Her striking is very poor but she has a meanness to her which does help. As for pudilova, I still don’t get why the ufc resigned her. Her first tenure was pretty fun but she had some horrible losses. I wouldn’t say shes improved that much but she has definitely added new things to her skillset, specifically her wrestling. Now shes no phenom but Lucie’s main game plan nowadays is to grapple. She has decent takedown attempts & will do head and arm throws (something we saw perez struggle a lot with against egger). She doesn’t do a ton on top but did have some absolutely vicious gnp in her last fight. On the feet i favor pudilova since she is a striker by trade but she has lost that dog she had in her first ufc tenure. She was more than happy to throw down originally but has resorted to just point fighting on the feet. I do think she is better technically tho, hopefully perez’s aggressiveness can bring the dog out of lucie again; if she does then this could actually end up being kind of fun. While perez is pretty strong, she just muscles her way into takedowns & her technique is poor. I will never trust in argentinian grappling so while she may be able to get takedowns, I do think lucie will be able to reverse. I am not very confident in lucie but her level of competition is far superior to perez’s. 




Motta vs Ogden 
Motta DEC
I find it so funny that motta’s chin is so bad that its gotten to the point where the ufc has to match him against guys with no kos. Ive never been very high on motta but he has looked very bad in the ufc. He has a ton of natural power & throws really fast hooks on the feet but theres two problems with his striking, he is very limited and his chin is just not there. Motta is mostly all boxing, he throws the occasional leg kick & headkick but primarily he just throws his jab and hooks; he’s also a headhunter. We saw Jim miller completely shut down motta’s game with leg kicks so that speaks to his striking level. Motta’s chin is also shot at the age of 30. Im not just saying this because of his ufc run, i’ve seem him ko’ed stiff as a board on the regional scene as well. That’s another thing too, he’s not getting tko’ed, hes getting koed lights out & going stiff so his chin is only getting worse. Luckily for him, the ufc is giving him someone with 0 career knockouts. Ogden is a very weird case, his tape on the regional scene is pretty solid; I was especially impressed with the wrestling clinic he put on jj okanovich to get to the ufc. Ogden has a pretty solid & well rounded skillset but he does not seem to be able to compete at the ufc level. His only “win” was really due to Zellhuber not showing up more than Ogden actually doing enough to win. His other two losses consist of a striking clinic from Bahamondes & a very close fight against leavitt where he ultimately lost due to being gassed. Despite having zero ko’s his striking is pretty serviceable. He throws good leg kicks and has a solid jab, the issue is that he doesn’t have a ton of power so nothing he throws is really impactful. I actually really like ogden’s grappling but he doesnt use it as much as he should & sometimes doesn’t use it at all. His bjj is pretty clean but hes only really used it when his opponents engage in the grappling first. If this fight stays standing, I think the powerful shots of motta are going to make the difference in this fight. However, Motta is very low level so I would not be shocked if he pulls a stunt and gets submitted here.



Johnson vs Estevam 
Estevam DEC 

InnerG really causes me pain. When he had his incredible war with mota, I was expecting johnson to immediately make a splash in the ufc. However, he could not have disappointed me more. I have tried to give him the benefit of the doubt but it's getting to a point where I can’t keep backing him anymore. Looking back at it, his level of comp has been really tough on paper. His performances were very bad but having to fight guys like mokaev or durden on short notice is not an easy task. What’s really shocked me about innerG is the output. In LFA, he was a volume machine but he has been frozen since joining the ufc. Idk if he just simplay can’t hang with people at the ufc level or if the takedown threat is making him more heistant but its very weird; he seems to have lost his ability to pull the trigger & is frozen for long periods of time in the fight. Johnson has always had a very low guard & likes to roll with punches but his defense has looked horrible in the ufc. He doesn’t check leg kicks like he used to, he leaves himself open for counters all the time, and his boxing has not looked the same. Johnson was never an amazing wrestler but he always had a good ability to get back up. In the ufc, he has had no issue getting back up but, he has shown no urgency to separate. Now, maybe he can’t since hes fighting guys like mokaev and durden but still. I remember when he signed to the ufc Johnson was talking about struggles adjusting to 3 round fights but on what is now your 6th ufc fight, you can’t use that excuse anymore. I also don’t like his activity; don’t get me wrong, I love active fighters but innerG is suffering from the same thing Fialho suffered with. Staying active is great for experience but damage adds up after every fight & it gets to the point where you aren’t learning anything new nor are you improving on your mistakes. InnerG just keeps taking fights & isn’t taking time to fix his core issues and thats why he is losing nearly every fight. Hes taken a very long (and needed) 7 months off so maybe he will show up reinvigorated but I won’t be putting my faith in that. Either way, ufc is not doing him a favor with this matchmaking, getting pitted up against yet another grappler. I’m not incredibly high on estevam but on paper innerG has yet another tough fight ahead of him. Estevam is just mean. His whole gameplan is to take you down & beat you up. What I really like about estevam is his activity with grappling; he is always throwing gnp. On dwcs, he was bullying his opponent for submission hunting & his bread and butter on the regional scene was to take the back & pepper with shots from the body triangle. His grappling is definitely quite good but his striking is unknown. It seems like your average brazilian thai style; aggressive, lots of leg kicks, always trying to close the distance. He doesn’t appear to have very good boxing tho, he winds up a lot & throws slow and looping overhands a lot. Also seems very hittable. He makes up for this with very good grappling; hes going to push you up against the fence & grind you out with wrestling. On the feet I favor johnson but estevam’s pressure will likely make it close since johnson seems to have no urgency. We’ve already seen time & time again that johnson can’t beat good grapplers. I could see innerG getting an upset for sure, he’s got the skills but i’m not gonna take that risk anymore

Ribas vs Pinheiro 
Ribas DEC 

Im confident in ribas here but the line opening -300 is pretty crazy imo. I do think Ribas is better everywhere on top of this being a very favorable matchup but her chin is such a liability that the line worries me. Especially now that she going back to 115 where her chin isn’t nearly as good, and shes facing a hard hitter to boot. Ribas striking is a lot better than I remember. Her chin is dog**** but she is not a bad offensive striker for womens mma. Her technique is awful if you break it down but its effective for wmma. She spams 1-2’s with a lot of front kicks and leg kicks. Her punches are low impact but she is very aggressive and throws at a high clip. Her defense is shockingly good & Ribas has a great vision on the feet. However, all her good work on the feet can get erased in a second due to how chinny she is. The best part of Ribas’s game is her judo. Her head and arm throw is absolute money & she is very hard to takedown as a result. What really surprised me about ribas is how she was still taking girls down with this at 125; really speaks to her strength and size at 115. One thing that does worry me is Ribas’s headspace; not that she has done anything concerning recently but I did find it strange she wanted to move to 125 & is now coming back. I do think that 115 is her natural class but I don’t like that she can’t decide. Pinheiro has almost regressed in my eyes. I was very impressed with her on dwcs and regional tape but she has looked worse and worse each successive ufc fight. Quitting in her debut to milk a dq was a red flag but her skills have really looked worse each time. Pinheiro came to the ufc as a judoka, she would spam head and arm throws like ti was nothing & was running girls over with her pace. But each ufc fight she has used it less and less, not even attempting a throw against waterson. Pinheiro has a ton of power but she is a bad striker. She winds up hard on her hooks and doesn’t really set her punches up. She will flail wildly up close amd leaves a lot of openings on the feet. When she rushes forward flailing, she runs in with her chin up high. As a result of her crazy style, Pinheiro’s cardio falls off in round 3. The most concerning thing to me on the pinheiro side was her last fight. She got drawn into a technical striking match with waterson…. And lost. She won the fight but that was a bad decision, and to lose to modern day waterson is a VERY bad look. Waterson did her usual strategy of stay as far away as possible and picked her apart with her karate kicks. I honestly think ribas is better everywhere, just her only issue is the chin. As long as ribas avoids the power shots of pinheiro, she should win with her volume on the feet. I do not see pinheiro having judo success as Ribas is a much better judoka with a size advantage. 




Medic vs Parsons 
Medic KO RD 2

This is very good matchmaking right here between two great strikers. I was very harsh on uros going into the semi fight. I have always been skeptical of Alaska fc fighters & uros’s previous performances left me with a lot of questions. He looked great against Semi and while he did answer a lot of questions like adapting to weight class, cardio, etc., I was still left with some criticisms. The first was his defense; now, I have been critical of Uros’s defense for a while and it didn’t look much better here. Getting knocked down by semi is whatever since he hits like a truck but Uros was still showing a lot of bad defensive things that I had see before. It’s odd because his footwork and movement looks slick but he gets hit so much. The second critisicm was his grappling, semi took him down way too easy & we saw how he gave up the second turner hurt him but Parsons is a striker so this will continue to be a question of mine. Despite the flaws, Uros is a really sick striker. He has a very long frame, even for 170 and uses it well. His kickboxing is just different, he throws with a natural power and his combos are a delight to watch. He is surgical with his combos and picks his shots well. Its also funny that these two are fighting, since Uros is a former 155er who moved up, and Parsons is an undersized 170 who should really diet to 155. So, Medic is essentially fighting a lightweight without the tough weight cut. This means that Medic is going to enjoy the size and speed advantage that he used to. The best way to describe parsons is decent. He is a classically trained nak muay, teaching striking at Syndicate mma. Parsons is very good at the basics & sticks to them. His boxing is alright, he doesn’t throw his hands much but has very powerful hooks and decent boxing skills. He is very heavy on the leg kicks & more importantly knows how to check them. His striking is far from flashy but its very effective. Parsons best quality is his toughness and conditioning; he looks unassuming because hes short and out of shape but parsons never gets tired. He can strike at a high clip for 5 rounds no problem. He also knows how to take a punch, sure, he may get dropped at times but the dude is insanely durable. This is how he beat renfro on dwcs; he wasn’t really a better fighter but renfro punched himself out chasing a finish and parsons stuck to the basics. Same with roberts, parsons was behind until roberts self sabotaged like he always does. In a pure striking match, I have to favor Medic. He has a big speed and size advantage, along with being a much more flashy striker. Parsons wears damage well but I think the power of Uros is going to be too much. 



JSP vs Brito 
JSP KO RD 3

This is a really great fight; two prospects on big win streaks who will likely get a big push with a win. I still struggle to see if Brito is good or not; he was very hyped on dwcs, looked meh on dwcs & bad in his debut, and has then rebounded with a 3 fight finishing streak. He obliterated andre fili which was super impressive, but his last two wins have been against absolute bums. I think he has a lot of skills but I am really not all that impressed with brito. He is a skilled fighter & very violent but he is an ape to me; just all aggression all the time with little to no gameplan. His striking is effective but imo from a technical standpoint it is very poor. Brito never stops marching forward & swings big wild hooks. These hooks are very powerful & the constant aggression makes brito hard to deal with however, Brito is far from technical. He will plod forward throwing and leaving himself open all the time. Brito can be very aggressive for the first 8-9 minutes but then he starts to slow down, as would be expected when he is throwing everything into every shot. When he starts to slow down he becomes so hittable. Brito is still going to march forward but his already predictable striking becomes even more lethargic & he just starts eating punches. Brito likes to grapple as well. His wrestling isn’t amazing but his takedowns consist of picking you up and slamming you to the ground. His grappling is just as aggressive as his striking, using high energy moves on the ground and always looking for a submission. I know a lot of people are really high on him but his level of comp doesn’t do it for me. He did beat diego lopes on dwcs which is aging well but that was a pretty boring fight where he laid on top of diego before eye poking him. The other eye opening win was against Fili. I was very impressed at the time but now whenever I watch that fight, im appalled at how stupidly fili approached that fight. He kept walking right into that right hand of Brito & wasn’t picking up on it at all; great win but I can’t believe such a veteran fought so stupid. His other two wins don’t do it for me, running through short notice guys who are much lower level than him. Now i’m not overly blown away by JSP either, but I do believe he has the advantages in this matchup. Much like Brito, Pearce is also very chaotic. However, theres a method to his madness where brito is just balls to the wall. Pearce loves a good brawl but he is much more measured; he throws and gets hit a good amount but his striking is not as wild, he is boxing heavy but doesn’t overextend on any of his punches. Pearce is also a pretty heavy leg kicker. He’s also not an idiot on the feet; he loves to stand and bang but if you start to land he is going to start wrestling. JSP’s grappling is by far the best part of his game. His wrestling isn’t anything crazy but he never stops shooting, if you defend the first shot hes just gonna keep going until he eventually gets you down. JSP can be reversed or taken down, but he never accepts being anywhere but on top. JSP loves to scramble & try and get your back. He is going to move wherever you want to go & he is going to be raining down gnp the whole time. Its mostly little rabbit punches but JSP has some nasty elbows as well. Regardless, the damage starts to add up very quickly. On the feet I favor brito, he is always going to be the one walking jsp down and has the power advantage. JSP is much bigger and will be able to land, but his defense isn’t that great. However, he wins this fight through grappling. Regardless of who initiates first, JSP is going to create grappling scrambles & keep the activity high which is going to tire out Brito. JSP has much better cardio and can match brito’s pace no problem. I think brito is going to go balls to the wall like he always does & tire himself out due to pearce not going away. I think brito’s best chance is an early submission but his chances get worse and worse after round 1.

Anheliger vs Johnson 
Johnson KO RD 1

I’m pretty shocked to see the odds so close on this one. I get people are low on johnson for that awful debut + the fact hes just not ufc level but, I think this is a very good matchup for him. Idk if recency bias is clouding the pick rate or if people just simply forgot who anhelieger is but he is BAD bad. In fact, hes very lucky to be here in the first place; he fought a compromised muin (who isn’t even good in the first place) and still almost lost that fight. He didn’t win by being better, but won by simply having better cardio. His two ufc performances have been lackluster, managing to lose a round to the awful jesse strader and then looked very bad against alatengheili. Chad’s age showed a lot in this fight, not only did he lose 30-27 to a very mediocre fighter, but every punch heili landed looked like it was about to ko chad. Besides the fact that chad is trash, I think this is a terrible matchup for him. Not because johnson is a good fighter btu because chad has no way of exploiting johnsons holes. The key to beat johnson is taking him down; the guy has the worst wrestling ive ever seen and i'm convinced i could take him down if i wanted to. Now, he does have a pretty decent get up game & is always making weird scrambles but any competent grappler just runs through him (as we have seen). However, not only does chad have horrible tdd, he doesn’t even wrestle. I mean, he hasn’t even thought of attempting a takedown through 3 ufc/dwcs fights. That alone already puts him at a disadvantage because now we have two strikers, except one is younger with a massive speed, size and power advantage. It’s kinda funny, watching chad move around the octagon & fight in the center of the cage, he doesn’t look horrible. He’s very light on his feet and is always moving around giving different looks. His head movement looks swaggy but once he starts engaging in the pocket he leaves so many openings; heili saw this coming from a mile away & was merking chad with every punch. Offensively Chad doesn’t really bring a whole lot to the table either; he rarely throws straight shots & when he does its a weak jab. The majority of his strikes consist of hooks and leg kicks. Another thing i really dislike about his stirking is his volume; chad never throws combos & is soooo low volume in there. I will say, he has natural power for a 135er and the timing on his hooks is impressive, but he is a trash striker. Now, im not over here calling johnson a good fighter, because hes not but, he has a lot of decent qualities for a bw. For starters, the reason everyone tries to take him down is due to his size; johnson is a very physically imposing bw, standing at 6”0 with a 71.5 inch reach. Not only is he lengthy but he hits really hard for the weight class. Now that hes facing another striker, I think he is going to look very good here. He can bully chad with his range until he finds a killshot. I know johnson is bad but i am very confident in him here