UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Can't wait to watch Fiviez expose this Polish Aljo Sterling

Another great pick 👏 

Funnily enough I never update my Tapology to update my picks to match my bets. I should be at about 80% accuracy with my previous Sean Strickland by DEC, Tracy Cortez by DEC, and Kyle Nelson by DEC bets. I won't be airing out my reasons unless I feel like it because typing sucks. Anyways... onto the predictions:

Fiziev vs. Gamrot
I'll take Fiziev here by KO/TKO in the 3rd round. 

Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige
Dan Ige by DEC here, he has this vibe to him that he will be a top contender very soon into the future and has more tools. Bryce has too many personal issues as well. The value is definitely on Dan Ige with these odds but I will hedge this bet with a Bryce Mitchell parlay.

Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez
I will just take Marina Rodriguez ML. don't care much/have much time to watch this fight and guess who

Bryan Battle vs. AJ Fletcher
Bryan Battle by finish in either the first or the third round. Survived 3 whole tiring grappling rounds with Rinat and never stopped trying to get off his back. Looks mentally and physically evolved every fight. AJ went a close decision and gave up in the third round vs. Ange "Low IQ Blockhead Future Fade" Loosa

Charles Jourdain vs. Ricardo Ramos
Charles Jourdain by KO/TKO here, he's due for a finish. Overall just genetically I feel Air Jourdain is the better fighter with much more potential and improvement. Also is a dawg who turns it up in the third round no matter what

Dan Argueta vs Miles Johns
Miles Johns takedown offense is garbage and he gases. Argueta probably grinds on him all night (pause) and out cardios him. Give me Argueta by DEC.

Tim Means vs. Andre Fialho
Give me Tim Means via KO/TKO in the 2nd/3rd round. Fialho lost too many braincells, he's clearly the type to respond terribly to TBI, has no head movement and clearly has affected his ability to LEARN how to implement more head movement into his game. I fear his fine motor mechanics are just washed now. Shouldn't have fought 3 times in 3 months.

Jacob Malkoun vs. Cody Brundage
Give me Jacob Malkoun by whatever. Cody Brundage is a low iq fighter, and I never bet on low iq fighters.

Mohammed Usman vs. Jake Collier
Mohammed Usman via needle injection, grade A pharmacy, better surrounding environment, and Kamaru Usman chin genetics. He just wins this for sure.

Mizuki Inoue vs. Hannah Goldy
Give me Mizuki Inoue by Finish, KO/TKO maybe? Hannah Goldy is worse than Marnic Mann which is just CRAZY how you can be worse than Marnic Mann and be in the UFC.

Tamires Vidal vs Montserrat Rendon
Just wanna spice it up and pick Montserrat Rendon by KO/TKO. Maybe she will throw a 1-2 down the middle and then a looping right hand around the guard to knock out Tamires.

Malkoun vs. Brundage
Jacob Malkoun, DEC
Jacob gonna be the new 185 decisionator!

Usman + Argueta + Battle parlay

You really putting one of the worst heavy weights on the roster in a parlay?

Fiziev vs. Gamrot
Rafael Fiziev, SUB, R4
Gamrot's last three performances, all against ranked competition, have been close decisions regardless of if he won or not. Fiziev meanwhile would have been on an absolutely monstrous title tear with 3 finishes in his last four fights- up until he fought a new and improved Justin Gaethje. I still don't believe either of these two are on the level of a title fight, but Gamrot showed that when fighting Turner he only won due to getting grappling off, and I doubt he'll be able to do that to Fiziev. Unless another crazy ass outcome occurs, I have Fiziev winning, likely by a knockout in the later rounds. Still should be a good fight.

Mitchell vs. Ige
Bryce Mitchell, DEC
IDK man, I feel as if Ige is a little too inconsistent. Mitchell's current ceiling seems to be higher as well considering his only loss is to Ilia Topuria. This is a lot of MMA math, but if Ige lost to Emmett, and Emmett got smoked by Topuria, then Mitchell was only beaten by somebody that was the elite of the elite in the division. Otherwise, Thug Nasty is perfect in the octagon.

Battle vs. Fletcher
Bryan Battle, TKO
Bryan's higher activity and experience fighting in the big show makes me feel better about this decision. I was there in Charlotte when he knocked Gabe Green's ass out.

Jourdain vs. Ramos
Charles Jourdain, DEC
The activity of Jourdain looks a bit better.

Johns vs. Argueta
Dan Argueta, DEC
I just saw Jackson Wink MMA at Argueta's profile.

Means vs. Fialho
Andre Fialho, TKO, R2
Fialho I guess I don't care.

Malkoun vs. Brundage
Jacob Malkoun, DEC
Losing 3 of your last 5 and 2 of those 3 losses by finish doesn't look great. Malkoun probably.

Collier vs. Usman
Mohammed Usman, TKO, R1
Jake is getting sacrificed bro.

Inoue vs. Goldy
Mizuki Inoue, DEC
I literally don't care if I'm wrong about this one.

Rendon vs. Vidal
Tamires Vidal, DEC
Vidal actually has a fight in the UFC so she's been in this place before.

A few guaranteed fireworks match ups. Jourdain v Ramos, Means v Fialho, Battle v Fletcher! Can’t wait  

Rodriguez vs. Waterson-Gomez II
Marina Rodriguez, DEC
Why did they make this lol

@Rah123 

you’re down so much money hahah 

Fiziev vs. Gamrot
Rafael Fiziev, DEC
50/50 either Rafael catching him enough to win at least 3 rounds and shut downs the takedowns or gamzrot wins a robbery decision via dry humping

Mitchell vs. Ige
Bryce Mitchell, DEC
Ige has always had the grappling hole hard to tell if he will improve drastically enough to **** down Mitchell

Rodriguez vs. Waterson-Gomez II
Marina Rodriguez, DEC
30-27

Jourdain vs. Ramos
Charles Jourdain, TKO, R2
If Ramos can’t catch him early Jordan will finish him late 2nd or 3rd

Means vs. Fialho
Tim Means, DEC
29-28 means after being dropped in the first

Malkoun vs. Brundage
Jacob Malkoun, DEC
30-27

I think Fizeav with better cardio will be a nightmare to deal with, and would be an interesting fight for Islam, elite striker with great takedown defence who usually pretty durable, he ticks all the boxes beside cardio

Even then his cardio isn’t that bad, just isn’t that good either, 

@DamienHandel420 

Agreed think Fiviez has 1 of the harder styles for Makhachev.

But first I gotta see Fiviez fight off the hectic game of Gamrot before I even trust him to stand a chance against Islam.

* Edited at 09.19.2023, 3:49 AM ET *

Fiziev vs. Gamrot
Rafael Fiziev, DEC
I pick Fiziev, but I imagine a close fight expecially in 4-5 rounds

Mitchell vs. Ige
Bryce Mitchell, DEC
That's one is easy to pick

Rodriguez vs. Waterson-Gomez II
Marina Rodriguez, DEC
Lock

Battle vs. Fletcher
Bryan Battle, DEC
30-26 or doctor stoppage

Jourdain vs. Ramos
Charles Jourdain, DEC
29-28

Johns vs. Argueta
Miles Johns, DEC
29-28

Means vs. Fialho
Tim Means, DEC
29-28

Malkoun vs. Brundage
Jacob Malkoun, DEC
30-27

Collier vs. Usman
Mohammed Usman, DEC
30-27

Inoue vs. Goldy
Mizuki Inoue, DEC
29-28

Rendon vs. Vidal
Tamires Vidal, DEC
29-28

damn my all picks are by decisions

@Glovetown 

Honestly. I think the love Bryce is getting when his wrestling is mid and he has pillow hands is insane. Ige has real heat in his hands. 

Just check the judges scorecard for Gaeche vs Fizeav, not mad that Gaeche got the decision, but 2 of the scorecard for the fight don’t make any sense and if it made sense Fizeav would win the split decision , one judges gave Gaeche round 1 which was a clear Fizeav round and another judge gave Fizeav round 1-2, but Gaeche a 10-8 in round 3 which wasn’t a 10-8 because Fizeav had his moment 

I don’t get how you can be a judges and be so ****, not corruption because giving Gaecthe round 2-3 is majority people scorecard, so they’re valid way to give it to Justin without being ********,these idiots have people careers in they’re hands and they’re score clear round wrong 

* Edited at 09.19.2023, 6:49 AM ET *

1. Monsterrat Rendon +195 v.Tamires Vidal -238: Vidal has great kicks, low kicks, and flying knees. She is also 9 years younger and has more experience than Monsterrat Rendon(who has yet to be tested at the UFC level). Furthermore, Vidal is a brown belt where Rendon is a blue belt. Furthermore, Vidal has demonstrated an ability to take her opponents down. To conclude Monsterrats striking is far from remarkable and vidal has a more diverse arsenal. Considering all of the above the pick is Tamires Vidal. Vidals implied odds at -238 are 70.41 percent. Once again this is high from a odds perspective and not great value but i am confident Vidal gets it done. I will have Vidal on a small parlay.
2. Mizuki Inoue -298v. Hanna Goldy +240: Goldy lost to mcann who is not ufc level. Furthermore, her take down defense in that fight wqas horrid. Mizuki is a karate black belt and a blue in bjj. The only concern is that Mizuki h ad an ACL surgery in 2020. Despite that surgery Mizuki is my pick. Her fast striking should be way to much for Goldy. I also don’t think Goldy is UFC level. Pick is Mizuki. At -298 i.e a implied probability of 74.87 percent there is not great value here. However, i believe that Mizuki will get it done and will have her parlayed with some other favorites on the card.
3. Mohammad Usman -162vs. Jake Collier +136: Usman trains with Forits MMA. He was able to get on top and defeat Junior Tafa who is a good striker. On the other hand Collier is on a 3 Loss streak and has looked far from impressive. Pick is Usman. At -162 implied probability is 61.83 percent. I believe this is better value than Rendon and Inoue and I will be taking a position on Usman. * Note the line is moving and Usman is becoming more of a favorite.
4. Jacob Malkoun -485vs. Cody Brundage +370: Malkoun has great striking and aggression. Brundage looked terrible on his back against Sedriques Dumas where he lost by decision. However, whats concerning here to me is the odds. Malkoun at -485 has a implied probability of 82.91 percent. Even though i think Malkoun will get it done that is extremely high and i would avoid Malkoun from a value perspective.
5. Tim Means +142v. Andre Fialho -170: Means at 39 years old is ten years older than Fialho. That is a serious concern here. However, both fighters are on a 3l streak. Means has alot more experience with a 14-12 UFC record. At +142 the implied probability for Means is 41.32 percent. I believe he has about a 15 percent higher chance than that. Thus, from a betting perspective there is good value on Tim Means. I predict that Means will upset the younger Fialho and will pull off the victory.
6. Dan Argueta -185 v.Miles Johns +154:This will be another controversial prediction. I had Dan Argueta in his last fight where due to a referree early stoppage he was robbed from a victory. I like Argueta. Despite that I think this match up is not good for him. Johns boasts a 92 percent take down defense, and has good striking. I think he should be a favorite against argueta. Thus at +154 with a implied probability of 40 percent there is good value on Miles Johns.

Thanks for your support if you want to see more picks link to my substack under my profile. Thanks and much love I love tapology!

Fiziev vs. Gamrot
Rafael Fiziev, TKO, R3
I think Fiziev punches holes in the gas tank and knockdown gamrot a few times. He gets him outta there in the 3rd before he gasses.

Mitchell vs. Ige
Bryce Mitchell, DEC
Mitchell earns takedowns holds ige against the fence. 30-27.

Rodriguez vs. Waterson-Gomez II
Marina Rodriguez, DEC
Rodriguez is just better and more well rounded. 30-27.

Battle vs. Fletcher
Bryan Battle, TKO, R3
I think battle wins by tko round 3. He just has better kicks and more power and skill. Fletcher isn't very impressive.

Jourdain vs. Ramos
Charles Jourdain, DEC
I think jourdain has good fight IQ but this fight will be close. 29-28.

As I've capped a few more fights on this card a rare no bets card is looking more and more likely for me. I'm waiting on the scales to make a final decision on a few or the more unreliable fighters.

* Edited at 09.19.2023, 1:35 PM ET *