Predictions: 7 of 9 Winners, 3 Perfect, 480 Points
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Tied for 3407th
My new favorite type of bet is taking a fighter's point spread. If they win inside the distance you win, and if it goes to decision you need them to win by the combined point differentials of the three judges scores added up. It's a nice way to get some of these overwhelming favorites at decent odds without having to pick a specific prop. Either a stoppage or a wide decision. When you know it's gonna be an ass whooping, but you don't want to have to pick exactly which kind.
Adesanya -5.5 will probably bring -700 down to like -350 or lower. Gonna parlay that with Kape, Ulberg, and maybe Jack Jenkins?
People are Mad about Pedro Killing Their UFC 284 Parlays
Predictions: 9 of 12 Winners, 1 Perfect, 490 Points
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Tied for 3149th
@TapleafI know the burn of a failed parlay as well as anyone but picking Turkalj is not the move here. If you recall Turkalj's last fight the only reason it was close is because Vitor Petrino gassed himself by roid-swinging bombs with 200% power and reckless abandon at Turkalj's brick head. He proceeded to grapple in that gassed state and put himself in some vulnerable positions. There was nothing impressive coming from Turkalj prior. Nothing. He had a few body kicks that didn't look terrible and nothing else. Losing to Bukauskas isn't great admittedly, but if you look past the number of losses in the UFC and at his ability alone, it's clear that Bukauskas doesn't have a bad skillset partly because his striking, particularly his movement, can cause problems for other fighters. Pedro has a great kicks, an excellent sub game and not terrible hands. Yes he gassed last fight, but that was an anomaly. I can't think of a single area in which The Pleasure Man shines, while Pedro was once heralded as a legit prospect; the UFC knew what they were doing with this one (the card is in Australia after all). Save your money folks, bet Pedro or just don't bet.
This has got to be one of the worse on paper UFC PPV cards.
Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 490 Points
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Tied for 3175th
The main event is a clear indication that this was not organized correctly at all why would the UFC make a middleweight title eliminator so close to this event? We know why Izzy wanted to fight as it's in his home country.
Main event aside the issue with this card as a whole is that nothing remotely changes with regard to any of the rankings. Either heavyweights win they are not getting a title shot, Kape is facing a UFC debut, Tafa has another challenge that we expect to stop and Pedro is facing a man that lost all of his UFC fights so far. So the whole main card is built of just pleasing the hometown fans which is fair by the UFC but a PPV?
Bright side there are so many mismatches Hopefully we get a UFC card with lots of finishes if not it will be a long night.
"Confident to go in and not necessarily prove people wrong but to prove my support correct"
Predictions: 9 of 12 Winners, 3 Perfect, 620 Points
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Tied for 821st
Kape vs. dos Santos Manel Kape, TKO, R1 More experience from Kape and combined w/ that dangerous finishing potential as of late spells trouble for a new comer under the bright lights IMO. Underrated pick tho here: I could see Dos Santos POSSIBLY pulling it off even though most people haven't given him enough of a chance to partake in the upset.
Mullarkey vs. Makdessi Jamie Mullarkey, DEC Fairly easy UD victory for Mullarkey.
Haqparast vs. Quiñones Landon Quiñones, TKO, R2 Although the prospects didn't perform the way most probably expected, I see Quinones having a chance w/ his dangerous K.O. ability but can also envision a UD victory for Nasrat by boxing at a safe range and possibly exploiting Landon's wrestling game once again as shown in TUF against Jason Knight.
Diamond vs. Radtke Charlie Radtke, SUB, R2 I'd like to be wrong but Blood Diamond just doesn't seem to be UFC level after allll the hype coming from Adesanya's side.
Young vs. Miranda Gabriel Miranda, SUB, R1 DANGEROUS ground game from Miranda. Another fighter at the bottom of the litter of CKB in Young screams a fairly easy sub win for Gabriel here. A loss to BSD ain't something to be ashamed of in your debut, either.
"We Fall, But We Get Up Because The Ground Is No Place For A Champion." - Dustin Poirier
Predictions: 9 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 540 Points
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Tied for 2180th
Adesanya vs. Strickland Israel Adesanya, TKO, R2 Adesanya will dance arround Sean like he did with Costa or Brunson
Tuivasa vs. Volkov Alexander Volkov, DEC My guess is Volkov will be focused on outpointing Tai, he has reach advavantage on kicks, I doubt he will wish to approach Tai
Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 490 Points
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Tied for 3175th
I hear ya but this card really isn't THAT bad. The fact that it appears kind of lackluster on paper is due to a few factors.
1. Prelims are weak and could use 1-2 more fights.
2. Only 5 ranked fighters on the card and 1 of them is fighting a guy pulled from contender series.
3. Izyy isn't fighting the true #1 contender.
I think it's all a matter of perspective though. This card might look weak on paper but I think it's got a very good chance of over-delivering and producing a lot of finishes.
1. 5 debuting fighters that should all be super hungry and 2-3 of the fights on this card could be loser goes home. A few of these guys are gonna be fighting their asses off.
2. Jenkins/Mariscal and Ulberg/Jung are two very, very good prelim fights. Turkalj vs. Pedro seems like a lackluster main card fight but both guys desperately need a win and they've both fought pretty good competition.
3. Tai vs. Volkov seems like an afterthought at heavyweight with guys like Pavlovich, Aspinall, Gane and Almeida all ahead of them. However, they're really not when you consider the fact that Jones is probably retiring in December. This is still a pretty big fight to stay in the mix at heavyweight.
4. While DDP is still the true #1 contender, Sean Strickland is as good as it gets as an alternative. He's 8-2 in his last 10 and arguably is 9-1. Even if you don't think he beat Cannonier, his only other loss is to a former champion who's now up a weight class. Half of Strickland's wins in his last 10 are against at the time or current ranked opponents (Allen, Hall, Hermansson, and Imavov).
Strickland has all the tools to make this main event at least interesting to watch. Part of the reason its hard to get excited about is because we all watched Strickland march right into getting KO'd by Poatan. I think with a title on the line he's got to at least change his game plan a little bit, but that's hard to envision when Strickland himself has vocalized that his trademark heavy pressure/volume style is just apart of who he is as a fighter.
Predictions: 10 of 12 Winners, 5 Perfect, 665 Points
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Tied for 280th
Pedro vs Turkalj Tyson Pedro, SUB R1 The Pleasure Man has had trouble finishing lately
* Edited at 09.04.2023, 10:02 AM ET *
"While I Have Breath, I Have Hope."
GreenTeaEnthusiast
09.04.2023 | 10:13 AM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 7 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 415 Points
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Tied for 4240th
Adesanya vs. Strickland Israel Adesanya, TKO, R1 I'm going out on a limb here. I think DeSean Strickland does not sniff Izzy in any aspect of MMA; for once, I completely agree with the odds here, and wouldn't be shocked to see Israel close up to -800. Realistically speaking, the only feasible avenue for Strickland to put up a noteworthy performance is for him to get deep into Izzy's head, which is ridiculously tough to do. Basically, it comes down to this - his lack of fight IQ against much lesser opposition in recent times is particularly notable for three things: 1) an open chin from quite literally all forward striking angles; 2) meaningless pressure - he's really only doing it to get close enough to work his boxing, but there's no variety in the rhythm of his footwork, and he bites hard on feints (cue Joe Rogan going nuts); 3) a really ****** defense against counters - his main tactic, against everybody he's ever gone up against, has been either to fire a slight pull-counter, or to straight up eat it on the money and give back five more pitter patter shots. Either Izzy knocks his head off the block in the first, or he dominates him over the course of five, long rounds. Bruised calves and all.
Ulberg vs. Jung Carlos Ulberg, TKO, R1 I'd like to see Ulberg face a ranked opponent if plays out in the way we're all expecting it to. Jung is just a step behind Carlos in the striking department, and there isn't quite a way for him to cut a corner and find a way to win this fight. Except perhaps a hellbow on the temple, I don't really see him being able to rock Ulberg's lights enough to put him away - I certainly don't see him lasting all three and picking up a questionable scorecard split, even.
Diamond vs. Radtke Charlie Radtke, DEC Blood Diamond wouldn't be in the UFC if it weren't for Izzy/the CKB family. To be completely fair - I don't think Radtke is UFC-calibre either, but he's certainly a lot closer to tapping that spectrum than BD is.
Predictions: 9 of 12 Winners, 4 Perfect, 615 Points
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Tied for 898th
My issue with the card is that it is a PPV, this card shouldn’t have a $70 price tag, Apex cards can be **** because at least they are free, beside Tai vs Volkov what should be a banger, the rest of the main card are either **** fights no one cares about or mismatch’s
But honesly it probley has tons of Kos because it **** heavyweight and mismatchs
Predictions: 9 of 12 Winners, 0 Perfect, 495 Points
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Tied for 3116th
Tuivasa vs. Volkov Alexander Volkov, TKO, R3 if Volkov can keep it technical and at his range he should either cruise to a decision or find a finish in the late 2nd or somewhere in the 3rd. But he has to be careful with Tai's chaotic style, he can "disrupt" a lot of what Volkov might try to set up if he can time his counter or entry correctly. Volkov did a great job picking apart a heavy power puncher like Lewis so I don't see why he can't do the same with someone less technical. It's not that Tai doesn't have skills, but with this kind of skill discrepancy I think he's just going to have to be a 265lb wrecking ball and hope for the best.
Kape vs. dos Santos Manel Kape, TKO, R2 too much too soon for the Brazilian I think
Tafa vs. Lane Justin Tafa, TKO, R2 my condolences to whoever bought tickets
