UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Fremd vs. Pickett
Josh Fremd, SUB, R1
Nothing groundbreaking here...Pickett is leading contender for the worst Middleweight on current UFC roaster. Fremd has solid wrestling, his striking is a work in progress but Fremd could be a fringe Top 20-25 UFC fighter. Pickett probably gets cut after this.

Swanson vs. Dawodu
Cub Swanson, TKO, R1
Hakeem missed weight last time

McGhee vs. Buys
Marcus McGhee, TKO, R2
Buys rd1 sub McGee Rd 2 ko

@Ayy yeah that’s very fair, I’m hopeful that the reduced weight cut will improve his chin as well but he just doesn’t have a huge frame on him, that Montel fight was a gross mismatch, they legit looked 2 weight classes apart lol. JP also knows this is it if he loses, idk I just really like his value in this spot

Yeah mcghee should definitely not be -400

But also, He got dropped 4 times by Montell, 3 times and ko'd by Bruno Silva and instant KO'd by Cody Durdan, I can't back a guy who can't take a punch, Most likely he getting Ko'd again, Only thing more impotent then cardio, Is durability

Every card we usually have the big upset winner, Tanner Boser,Uros Medic, and Elvis Brenner and I think Chris Daukaus is the one for this one. Who do you all think can pull off a big upset?

@Dennis1990 

Parisian, Miller

I'm no MMAFORTUNETELLER but I expect a lot of upsets however odds fluctuate so we shall see whos favored come weigh in and then fight night. 

@DamienHandel420 

he was knocked down by Montel but was able to recover and wasn’t finished in that fight, which is a good sign since it was his only go at 135, which supports the theory he can take the shots better at that weight. At 125 where he clearly was too drained, he just couldn’t take any shots, but up at 135 he wasn’t finished despite being knocked down. Montel is a far better grappler and overall fighter than McGhee imo, I just think this line is being too affected by recency bias

Blackshear up to -275 and higher most places, glad I got some in when I did, still gonna do more I think 

@duck the point I’m trying to make is 

1. Those guys who ko’ed him are all so good. They’re all either ranked or just outside the top 15. 

2. I agree that his chin isn’t not good, but we can’t also ignore how much weight he was cutting. JP weighs in the 150-155 range out of camp, he was likely destroying his body to make 125, hence the ko losses. I know Montel wrecked him but Montel is one of the hardest hitters at 135; 9 knockdowns in the ufc. He was able to survive which makes me think his chin is slightly better at 135. Again, he did get dropped a ton but it doesn’t help that Montel hits so hard

https://delinquentmma.com/luque-vs-dos-anjos/

If you betting JP, You better think/hope his chin is Overeem bad, And not Jason Witt/Shannon Ross bad, As someone like Overeem can take a punch from time to time, And the latter really can't. Having some level of durability is crucial to be a elite fighter It like what I say about they're being a big difference between 2 round cardio and 1 round cardio

* Edited at 08.10.2023, 8:02 PM ET *

Marshall vs Dulgarian  
Marshsall SUB RD 3 
Interesting one here. I think Marshall is a stud but is super green. He just experienced his first loss and now hes finally the one with some experience. Dulgarian was such a weird signing. The ufc signed him as the first fighter with a Nelk co-sign, the first “full send fighter”. Well, to the surprise of nobody, that was a complete and utter scam as they havent promoted the guy once since his signing. Dulgarian has also disappeared since then. He took a super long layoff after getting signed, pulled out of his fight in january, and now is finally making his debut almost 2 years later. Dulgarian looks pretty good on tape. His striking is super powerful; watching him put that dudes lights out with gnp his last fight was genuinely scary. However, I do think he gets a little wild on the feet, I saw him get hit a few times on tape and makes me wonder how he will do when someone actually throws back. Dulgarian is also a strong wrestler & set the kansas state record for most takedowns in high school. Of course, thats high school but still impressive nonetheless. His wrestling has looked gresat as a pro; he has yet to face someone who can stuff a takedown & he does everything well on the ground. However, Im skeptical about his place in the ufc. I dont think this guy is bad but he is wildly untested; hes got the record of a dwcs guy except he didnt get to fight a legit opponent on dwcs first. He has only fought bus drivers and plumbers who he just runs through with ease. Its clear he has some skills, but dulgarian hasnt been tested in a single area of mma yet. He has never been hit, hes never faced resistance to his wrestling, hes never been taken down, hes never gone past 3 minutes, theres just so much I have yet to see from him at this point in time. I see it now and I saw it when he was booked to fight argueta, twitter loves this guy for some reason. They were all over him for argueta (id love to see tapology odds for that fight if it got rebooked now) and i see a lot of people on him here. I just dont get the love at all. He looks good on tape but i have no idea how you can be so confident in someone so untested. Marshall is green himself but he has all the tools in the world. Super clean boxing, very deceptive power, high output, great cardio, solid wrestling, good bjj, he is just super well rounded. A few things he does wrong is 1. Runs up with his chin in the air constantly and 2. He just needs more experience because his fight iq isnt there yet. Its not like he consistently makes bad decisions, but he just needs more cage time to get acclimated. The chin thing is really concerning to me but marshall hasnt been exposed for it yet. Its possible dulgarian could clip him early but i wouldnt count on it. I think besides the chin in the air, marshall is a way better striker. Dulgarian hits hard and is fast but hes a little too wild for me. Marshall has crisp boxing and is a really good counter striker. The wrestling will be interesting too because marshall knows how to grapple/wrestle well. I have to pick marshall here because I have actually seen him tested and fighting ufc level competition. I also have a feeling dulgarian is a great hammer and a bad nail; I bet that explosive striking and wrestling starts to decline badly once he gets hit/taken down, and his cardio as well. 

Parisian vs Buday
  Buday DEC 
God what a stinker this is. At least the ufc had the decency to put this in the prelims instead of the main card but it doesnt change the fact that this fight sucks ass. Buday is somehow undefeated in the ufc but he is still among the worst guys at heavyweight. If he wasnt such a massive human, I dont think he would win any fights. All buday does every fight is use his size to push you against the cage and just lay on you, occasionally throwing strikes or knees in the clinch. At least thats what hes supposed to do; I will never forget when he was a big favorite over brezski (another one of the worst heavyweights currently) and everyone expected him to wrestle, only for him to win a gifted decision and get pieced up. I will say, the fight was close in that brezski had all the volume but every time buday landed it had a big impact, but he got outvolumed by an insane amount; I thought he clearly lost that fight. Then his other performances havent been much better; he dominated barnett (who doesn't) but couldnt finish him and had to throw an illegal strike, and then let collier gas himself out and hug him to a decision. As bad as he is, I feel like he beats parisian. Josh may genuinely be the worst heavyweight on the roster currently. Thats a tough stake to claim but he is 100% in the conversation. All parisian is good for is taking a beating. He doesnt have any technical skills in any area, hes just a durable guy with good cardio. His inly win was against alan baudot (i would say a top 10 worst heavyweight of all time - not even exaggerating) and even then parisian was getting his ass kicked until baudot just straight up quit and gave josh the fight. Im not sure how parisian wins, not because buday is good but I just simply dont know how parisian has any skills to take the win. The stirking is close but parisian just eats punches for defense and has no power for a heavyweight, at least buday hits kinda hard. What *should* happen is buday clinches him up against the fence, maybe wrestles, and just wears on him to a decision. But, he is such a fat oaf that he might stand and trade with parisian the whole fight. I just really hope buday wins because I want parisian out of the ufc.

Ruiz vs Amorim  
Amorim SUB RD 1

I get that amorim **** the bed hard in her debut but I am still high on her. Yes, she death gassed and really just panicked after round 1 but it is important to note she is still really green. That was the first time she has ever faced resistance and left round 1. IN round 1, she actually looked quite good. She was uncomfortable with the pressure of hughes but she was consistently landing that right hand and she was stunning hughes with some of her punches. She has good natural power but is just not totally comfortable on the feet yet. Her bjj is elite; I know she only played guard in rounds 2 and 3 but that was a mixture of panic and being gassed. WHen she is fresh, her bjj is a problem. She is able to pass into whatever position she wants & she is so quick on the mats. Her back takes and submission transitions are insanely clean; if you give her any leverage, she is gonna attack a sub instantly. I really do think if she fought anyone other than sam hughes she wouldve finished that choke. She had deep RNC’s under the chin and hughes just toughed it out. I know hughes is bad but she has two good qualities 1. Never ending cardio and 2. Crazy toughness. I genuinely have no idea how she didnt tap to those chokes; im positive 95% of the division wouldve given up there. I hope amorim has learned to pace herself, or in the least just learned how to take her time. IF she didnt keep trying for the finish in round 1, she couldve reserved energy for round 2 and maybe even have found the sub eventually. But i really think it was good to lose that fight because shes still young & now knows what she needs to work on. However, she is an onlyfans girl which does concern me about her future; she may not care that much about fighting. I honestly forgot her opponent was in the ufc. Ruiz is one of the more random ufc signings and thats saying something. Inactivity is not new to her, as ruiz has multiple multi-year long gaps in her career. I know this recent bout of inactivity can be attributed to injuries but im not sure what caused her other layoffs. Ruiz was brought in to make cheyanne vilismas look good & ended up spoiling the party. It wasnt necessarily a good performance tho since all she did was spam the same head and arm throw a million times and vilismas was clueless to it. Then she got fed to lemos, koed in 30 seconds and fell off the map. Her striking is not that good and as we saw against lemos, she leaves that chin right up int he air. I know amorim is uncomfortable on the feet but she will definitely be able to land on ruiz. BEsides the head and arm throw, Ruiz is a greco style wrestler. This is bad because if she is willingly going to the ground with amorim, that is gonna spell trouble. I could see a world where amorim pulls guard and loses fishing for subs, but I think with how much grappling there should be in this fight, she will find a way to get a sub. Ruiz also doesnt push a crazy pace or have the heart of hughes, so as long as amorim paces herself/doesnt rush anything she should be fine. 

Johnson vs Blackshear 
Blackshear DEC

Not a whole lot to say here since i wasnt expecting damon to stay on the card so i didnt really watch tape. Damon is someone who I think has a lot of talent but got to the ufc a little early. He is starting to find his footing but he has had to essentially learn on the job. He switched camps for his last fight and came out really improved. He picked his opponent apart with a diverse striking game and defended all of his submission attempts really well. What impressed me was the pace; in Da’mons debut, he death gassed round three but his cardio has looked fine since then which makes me believe he gassed due to short notice. In the lacerda fight, he was going at a pretty high pace and didnt seem fazed. He is a big batnamweight and while he doesnt hit hard, he likes to pick you apart with all kinds of different shots. His wrestling is decent and his grappling is pretty good. He makes you work on the ground, always scrambling and always looking for some submission to attack. He can scramble his ass off and always makes it tricky on the mat. Jose Johnson is a weird signing. He won on dwcs, but his fight was terrible. He was getting destroyed in the wrestling but was able to win because his opponent had no idea how to control him and kept getting swept. I will say, as terrible as johnsons tdd is, he does a really good job of trying to get back to his feet. However, he still cannot wrestle. The scrambles will be interesting because da’mon has really good bjj where johnson does not; I could see johnson trying to get to his feet and da’mon taking his back and getting a sub. On the feet I actually favor da’mon too. Johnson’s gimmick is that hes a 6”0 BW, which is pretty insane. However, Da’mon also is quite big for the weight class standing at 5”10. So this already disadvantages johnson since hes not gonna have the big size advantage he is used to. On the feet, johnson has the power advantage but I give the technical striking to da’mon. He has a much more diverse attack. What I really dont trust about johnson is short notice; being 6”0, the weight cut cant be easy at all. 

Miller vs Santos  
Santos DEC 

Not sure I can ever trust miller again after that last fight; yikes. They were giving her a freebie of all freebies and she managed to look amateurish in there. Im not sure if hardy just managed to level up in her time off, or if brogan is just really so bad that she made Miller look competent. Ive never liked miller’s striking but its effective because she is always in your face. We’ve seen time and time again that just having dog in you wins more Wmma fights than it should. However, Miller is just so sloppy and is there to get hit. That style works when you hit hard but miller really doesnt and she has poor technical striking. Santos’s striking is better than I expected. She stands square so she is there to be hit, but her technique is solid and she puts pretty good power into each shot. Miller will be able to land on her, but the more impactful strikes will come from santos. Santos’s fight with jena bishop was very useful for this matchup; bishop is much better than miller, but they are similar in that they are okay strikers with very good bjj, just bishop is obviously much more refined than miller is. IN that fight, santos was doing well on the feet, but she was getting hit a lot which made it close. She did a good job of avoiding danger on the ground which I like to see. Miller has really good bjj but horrible wrestling. She relies on clinch takedowns and while she was able to dominate brogan, she looked like an amateur trying to take down hardy. Santos is a judoka & a very strong one at that. If miller tries to clinch with her and get a trip, santos is gonna sneak that leg under & hip toss her. I do worry about Miller getting the back, as we saw bishop do in their fight, but I think if it does go to the ground, miller will pull guard. The difference between her and bishop is bishop is more acclimated to mma, miller is still really green and goes to her back when she cant get her game working. I dont think it would be wise for santos to engage on the ground but she can win minutes with top control for sure. Overall, I think santos should take this. She is also green but seems more ufc ready compared to miller. I really love her judo and I think that is going to give miller a lot of issues. However I do think the striking is close. Bishop has better technique and hits harder, but she doesnt defend herself well and gets hit a lot, i do think she can edge it on the striking tho but as we’ve seen, that zombie walk style gets more wins than it should in WMMA. 

* Edited at 08.10.2023, 8:48 PM ET *

Dobson vsNchukwi 
Nchukwi KO RD 3 

 This is a really frustrating one for me because I think both guys are talented but they have been inconsistent and not able to show their skills. Dobson especially, because he is the most gunshy fighter ive ever seen. The excuse I saw after his debut was that he was injured, then after his second loss he was supposed to have been grinding with some good wrestlers, then proceeded to not attempt a single takedown. What’s even more annoying is you watch him defensively and hes doing everything right; blocking all the shots, making really good reads, but then hes not throwing anything back at all. He was just playing defense the whole fight and didnt even think to use his wrestling. I think part of him was scared of gassing like he did in his debut. Dobson before the ufc was really explosive and just running through everyone in round 1. In his debut he looked great round 1. Every strike was having an effect on malkoun and he was able to stifle malkouns wrestling for the most part. But then, he got tired and slowly grinded out with wrestling in the last two rounds. All of this just makes me think he doesnt have what it takes to compete in the ufc. He is a skilled fighter, but he doesnt seem to be able to deal with the skill level of the ufc. Its not like hes getting outclassed, but he is just doing nothing. He got wet blanketed against malkoun and then didnt even try to win against petrosyan. Tafon on the other hand, is (imo) suffering from the same thing jp buys is; level of competition. Tafon’s case is obviously quite different but he has fought really stiff competition in the ufc. Tafon was dealt an unfortunate hand because the ufc signed him at only 4-0 off of dwcs. Not only has he had to learn on the job, but every step up hes faced has been really tough guys. He got dominated by junyong park, which at the time I thought was a bad loss. Not because of who he fought, but park just destroyed him with grappling and tafon made so many fouls and mistakes. However, park is fringe top 15 so in retrospect, its not a bad loss. Then his two losses at 205 arent bad either. He is the only person in the ufc who has been up on the scorecards against murzakanov. Tafon looked very good in rounds 1-2, as he was frustrating azamat with his striking. Then azamat found his range and slept him with a crazy flying knee. Tafon was winning & we’ve seen how good azamat has looked recently so this loss isnt bad. Same with ulberg; I thought tafon’s chin was gone after that fight but it just turns out that ulberg’s jab generates insane power, on top of him being one of the best strikers at 205. When hes fought people on the level of dobson, Tafon has looked amazing. He has smoked his opponents with his volume & showed a great striking arsenal. That alone is enough for me to take him here. Dobson was just so gunshy on the feet last fight that I think tafon’s volume is gonna give him a lot of issues. I am worried about dobson’s wrestling but at the same time, he hasn’t used it once in the ufc so can I really rely on him to do it here? Overall, I think if this stays on the feet, its tafon all day. Dobson appears to know what hes doing on the feet, but he is so gunshy that I think the volume and pressure of tafon is gonna slowly break him down. We have seen he doesnt have the best gas tank so if tafon pushes a pace I could see him koing a gassed dobson late. 

Fremd vs Pickett  
Fremd SUB RD 2

I hate this fight. I dont know why on earth its main card either. I also can’t believe the ufc is giving pickett another fight, maybe they feel bad about the low blow in his last one. Either way pickett should just not be in the ufc & honestly, I doubt he even cares at this point. I feel like hes known hes not ufc level after a couple losses and he is just showing up for paychecks. When you look at pickett, he looks in great shape & super athletic, but he has no idea how to use any of his physical tools. Pickett has some power but he is not a good striker. He also barely throws heat anymore because he is scared of getting hit. If you hit him ckleanly he just gives up; i mean the dude quit to elbows off a takedown against jordan wright. When he doesnt get his way on the feet (pretty much every fight) his only other gameplan is to hug you against the cage. HE tries to wrestle but he just cant at all and it ends up being this awful clinch fest. Then we have fremd who I also think is pretty bad. The difference between the two is fremd actually wants to be here. He is a super tall mw and fights like one. He has that tall man’s defense and has paid for it before. I doubt jamie has enough confidence to throw heat but fremd is there to be clipped. His striking is decent but he just looks so awkward out there. However, he at least throws which is more than enough to beat pickett; all he needs is one clean shot. THe biggest advnatage for fremd is the grappling. FRemd is not a good wrestler but he does have good grappling. We saw against dumas his judo throws and trips are solid. Pickett has no grappling to speak of so fremd should be able to do what he wants. I say should because at the end of the day, Fremd is not an incredible fighter. However, we have seen time and time again that pickett cant grapple worth ****. I think this will be similar to the dumas fight. Fremd is just gonna grapple him until pickett gives him the sub.




Buys vs McGhee  
Buys SUB RD 1 

Ive had a very long time to think about this fight. On paper it seems so obvious but idk I just have a weird feeling about this one. I know buys chin is an atrocity. The poor guy cant take a punch at all. He has a very fast recovery but his chin is just alarmingly bad. Taking some time to look back at his record, is it really THAT bad? I know hes getting outclassed but look at who hes fighting. Bruno silva is right outside the top 15 and very talented, montel jackson is one of the best unranked guys at 135 (buys took that short notice), and we’ve seen durden has just evolved into a completely different fighter than he used to be. So yes he is losing badly but he has not caught a break in the ufc. Now hes going from fringe top 15 guys to a regional fighter. I know Mcghee got a ufc win & I am a fan on him, but I dont necessarily think hes ufc caliber. Mcghee is a fantastic striker but not a great mma fighter. His striking is awesome but he lacks grappling. I mean, he does have some idea of how to grapple but you wrestle him aggressively and he doesnt know whzt to do. Watching his fight with nascimento reminded me a lot of bonfim vs saint denis. McGHee could not keep nasicmento off of him and even though he was trying his hardest to defend, he succumbed to the choke onslaught. The way nascimento fought him and buys style are very similar. We havent got to see much of it in the ufc since hes gotten totally destroyed but buys can wrestle his ass off. You watch any of his wins and rthe guy is a ferocious wrestler. He constantly chain wrestles and will attack submssion after submission until he finishes the fight. JP has taken a lot of time off and has been training with killers so i’m hoping maybe he has picked up some things. I really think 135 is the class for him since he is not cutting as much weight; He showed a photo of himself in the scale last week & he was 156, so he was killing himself to make 135 (which would explain why he cant take a punch). Now, we did see montel knock his head around, but montel is an insanely hard hitter (I think somewhere 8-10 knockdowns in the ufc) and JP was recovering really quickly so it makes me wonder if his chin is completely shot, or if it just looked bad because montel is a freak of nature. He also managed to take montel down which was very impressive; also shows that he is very strong and has good technique. Another thing I need to point out is the level of competition. While his losing streak looks awful, JP has lost only to top 15/fringe top 15 guys. Bruno silva is very good, montel is massive for 135 and one of the best unranked bws, and we’ve all seen how good durden has gotten recently. JP is going from fighting some of the best guys in two divisions and is now fighting a regional fighter. I like marcus a lot and have been watching him since he was 2-0 but his skill level is not close compared to the guys JP has been fighting. He is a super slick fighter and has good power but he is very one dimensional in that you get him to the ground and he doesnt know what hes doing. Hes also not some young prospect either, McGhee is 34 and this was his last chance to get to the ufc. He looked great in his debut but he also fought newson who has never been ufc level. I know its risky, but i really dont think the line should be this wide. I totally understand picking buys but I cant get past the gap on the ground; its just as wide as the striking gap. I just cant unsee the nascimento fight where he swarmed McGhee from start to finish; JP brings that same pace and relentlessness with his grappling so I think he has a good shot of winning this.
 
McKinney vs Breeden
  McKinney SUB RD 1 

This fight should not be as hard to call as it is, but McKinney is so unreliable. If this was full camp McKInney, I would say hes a total lock. Breeden has never been close to ufc level and McKinney just simply has a better skillset everywhere. But, this is short notice McKinney. Terrance is a one round fighter and nothing he can do in his training camps has changed that. But now, hes returning after losing just two weeks prior & not only that, but he went straight to twitter after the loss complaining about a fence grab; this means that hes coming into the fight emotional (well, more emotional than usual which says a lot) and thsat could work against him. Terrance has to know his job is on the line here and is mad about hiwo that last fight went. Normally that type of motivation would be good but when terrance fights emotional, he doesnt pace himself and gasses out. Well honestly im not sure its even his cardio anymore, it seems mental. His last fight vs nazim was not a high pace at all and he still gassed out. He took nazim down with ease and had his back for about 4 minutes, then at the minute mark he just let go of the body triangle and pretty much just quit. It was so weird to see because there was virtually no action and he was just on the back controlling and yet he still somehow just gave up. His striking also looked worse than it ever has; I think getting koed a ton has made him lose his confidence on the feet. That is really bad if true because terrence is not a technical striker at all & losing his confidence makes his striking look amateurish. Also, terrence is a notorious gasser who is now cutting back to 155 after just losing two weeks ago. That means his already terrible cardio will be even worse here. All breeden has is toughness, cardio, and decent power. Sadly, that may be enough to beat terrence but breeeden is just simply low level. He leaves his chin out there to be hit and while he does have good volume and power he is not technical. That style should benefit mckinney but as i said, he seems to have lost confidence in his striking. If he does come out guns blazing I think he can ko breeden, but he will have ti be careful to not gas himself out. What I think will happen is this is gonna be a repeat of the nazim fight, except he *should* win. HEs gonna shoot immediately, get breedens back, and hopefully sub him. If he doesnt finish this within 2-3 minutes, terrence is ******. His gas tank will wane and we’ve seen he has a lot of quit in him. I honestly have such a bad feeling breeden is gonna knock the **** of him but I just cant bring myself to pick breeden. Wouldsnt be shocked at all if terrenece loses; I used to be high on him but it is the same thing every time. I dont think he will ever evolve and when you cant do that, you become very easy for people to figure out. 

* Edited at 08.10.2023, 8:49 PM ET *

Luque vs RDA 
 RDA SUB RD 4

This is a really tough one to call. I was already on the fence when this first got announced, and then I heard about the Hemmorage luque had last time out. Luque has always been known for his chin, so to see him get put to sleep was shocking. Knowing that he got hit so hard he had a brain bleed makes it all the more worse. Luque’s style has already required him to take a lot of damage, and despite being so young its possible that style has already caught up with him. He is only 31 but has been fighting since he was 18 so he definitely has a lot of milage. I mean, luque has been in endless wars and also gotten the **** kicked out of him in quite a few fights, so it is highly plausible he is starting to be a little washed. Luque has never been known as the best fighter ever, but he is just such a damn good brawler that he was able to pull out wins. His striking is super powerful and he loves to throw down and brawl. In his past fights (I say this because its possible hes gonna totally change his style now) luque hasn’t cared about defense and just brawls. He finds a way to win usually, but he has lbeen down on the scorecards to bad fighters before due to his brawling style. Luque also has pretty poor tdd, as he has struggled with wrestling his whole career. To make up for it, he does have a really good d’arce choke but the wrestling is still a big flaw. IN his past two fights, luque has really not looked himself. Neither of his losses are bad on paper but its the way hes performed that has been concerning. Against belal, he looked like a shell of himself. I dont think ive ever seen him so timid before in my life. He was scared to engage, and when he did rock belal in round 3, he didnt make any attempts to capitalize and let him recover. Then he mostly just got outwrestled and genuinely just looked ****. Then of course the neal fight happened. Luque did look more like himself in that he was throwing down but he could not handle the power of neal. We know neal is one of the hardest hitters if not the hardest at 170 but to see luque getting rocked with every punch that landed was scary to see. Not to mention he nearly got koed in round 1, then got brutally finished in round 3. Luque may be looking bad, but theres also a lot of questions with RDA. For starters, RDA is just simply not as good as he is at 155. If he is ranked top 10 at 155, id say skill wise hes about a top 15-25 guy at 170. He still retains his skills, but he is pretty undersized and his power & wrestling lose a lot of their effect at this class. So, luque is going from two top contenders at 170 to an undersized, aging legend who is nearing the end of his career. I say that, but RDA still has a ton left in the tank. He dominated moicano for 4 rounds (he gave moicano the 5th out of respect) and was being pretty competitive with fiziev until getting caught in round 5. SO that shows he is still competing with up and comers and not washed. Despite this, there is still an obvious decline in his overall skills; hes just simply not as good as he used to be. IN the striking, I think I favor RDA on technique, but as i said he is undersized here and luque throws heat. Luque is there to be hit and may possibly have compromised durability, but RDA has never been known for his power so I lean luque. We know luque has always struggled with wrestlers throughout his career, and RDA loves to wrestle at this weight class. Now, since he gives up a size advantage, RDA struggles a lot more to get takedowns; he often has to try twice as many attempts to get his opponents down. I think he will be able to get luque down but he is going to have to work for it. I also worry about his durability. RDA isnt chinny by any means but like everything else, the chin does start to go as you get older & up a weight class against a very hard hitter, I dont think he will be able to take punches the same. Finally, Luque has talked about changing his style up. While that is a fantastic idea given the trauma hes had, we often find that when guys try to do a total 180, then often end up looking totally different, and not in a good way (of course, there is exceptions but i find that more often than not there are negative effects). Look at randy costa or marc diakese for example. Costa tried to paced himself after gassing badly & ended up looking clueless. Diakese went from exciting striker to boring lay n pray wrestler & as a result has lost his flare on the feet. If luque wants to try a grappling heavy gameplan, I fear it may be unnatural for him and he will struggle to implement his game plan. Overall, this is a really hard fight to call but I am leaning RDA because I dont like where Luque’’s career is currently at. I would not be shocked if Luque manages to find a finish or win a decision here but I personally dont trust him. 

Swanson vs Dawodu  
Dawodu KO RD 1 

I love cub so this fight is gonna be painful to watch. Cub is an OG and an all time favorite of mine to watch. His striking style is so unique and he has put on so many classic fights. Despite this awesome style, Cub is one of those veterans who has never evolved with the game. Cub has been his same self throughout his career; he has that unique striking but he has always had suspect grappling and he has never checked leg kicks. Now, he is being matched up against a muay thai striker who is a very heavy leg kicker, all after stupidly going down to 135, getting koed, and taking more time of the little he has left in this game. The bantamweight drop made absolutely no sense to me, like what did he think he was going to accomplish? He just didnt look himself that fight; his stirking was the same but he could not take a punch at all and after like 5 leg kicks he could barely use it anymore. Going down and going back up is never a good idea in the first place, but now hes coming back up after being koed. Dawodu isnt known for his power; in fact, he has one ko in the ufc and it was in the final seconds of the fight. Despite not being a finisher, dawodu definitely throws hard. He puts out a ton of leg kicks and picks you apart with his jab. He has a really powerful clinch as well. Dawodu **** the bed hard in his last fight, but it was very clear he was compromised coming into the fight (4.5 lb weight miss) so ill cut him some slack. This fight seems to me that the ufc is setting him up for a freebie after the unfortunate performance last time out. Cub is still a great striker but he is getting old. The leg kicks of dawodu are going to absolutely kill him too; cub still doesnt know how to check leg kicks and just got koed by them last fight. I doubt cutting to 135 and getting finished is going to help his durability much either. I could honestly see a decision but im going to go with finish here.

Rountree vs Daukaus  
Rountree KO RD 2 

This is a weird one. I really liked daukaus a lot when he first came to the ufc. His speed was something we didn’t see much at 265 and he was sleeping everybody. However, I think he got rushed too fast. A loss to lewis is nothing to be ashamed of, but daukaus stupidly decided to take that short notice main event against blaydes. He didn’t have to take that fight at all, ufc needed a main event on short notice & he stupidly decided to take the fight. Then, after two bad defeats, he took yet another fight at heavyweight, against another power puncher. Daukaus should have been at lhw his whole career & is now going down when its too late. Daukaus still has skills, but his chin has now been damaged & going to 205 he loses a lot of what makes him special. Daukaus still has skills but he loses his best attribute, his speed. He looked so good at 265 because he weighed so much less, and was able to maneuver & throw strikes much faster than anyone else. NOw going down, everyone more or less moves at the same speed he does. When you take that away, daukaus doesnt really stand out that much. He has really good power (especially for his size - he definitely has the power of a heavyweight) and solid boxing technique. I love his dirty boxing in the clinch and he will mix in knees and leg kicks too. One thing I never liked about daukaus is his footwork and defense. Rewatching his tape, I never realized how much daukaus got hit at 265; its amazing he disnt get koed sooner. HE also was really bad at leaving his chin up after throwing strikes; this lead him to get countered a lot. He wore the strikes well, but this flaw was very evident in the shamil fight. He won the fight by landing bigger shots but early on you could see he was having trouble landing big & was getting countered a lot. Besides losing the speed, Daukaus also loses more of his chin (he has to cut weight now - not much but still he is cutting 20 or so pounds and loses a lot of athleticism. Daukaus was never in the best shape at 265, and the recent photos ive seen of him you can see he is a bit leaner, but he is just not a natural athlete and theres still some flab on him. What makes this fight more interesting, is daukaus is fighting a very inconsistent fighter in Khalil Rountree. Khalil either looks like the worst fighter on the roster, or the most violent striker you’ve ever seen, nothing inbetween. Recently, khalil has found a patch of consistency (although he “won” that horrible robbery his last fight, he did actually show up) in his wildly inconsistent career. Khalil has recently adopted a muay thai heavy style & it has worked otu great for him. He hits like a truck and everything he does is super explosive. He also is just so violent; every strike he throws looks like its thrown with hatred in it. What I love about hisd style is the unorthodox strikes he throws. Khalil loves his barely legal techniques, such as oblique kicks or soccer kicks to the body. The problem with khalil is sometimes he just doesnt show up at all. Hes had fights where he throws no volume & looks scared, to fights where hes just gotten dominated on the feet. However, his striking vs daukaus’s, I favor khalil significantly. He has so much power & just better technique. Daukaus is fast and has solid boxing, but he loses a lot of speed going down and also gets hit a ton. His chin has already been cracked and now hes facing a very hard hitter. Also khalil is a major liberal; hes gonna take his anger out on daukaus for being a cop.  

Viana vs Lucindo 
 Lucindo DEC 
I still dont understand why tapology always makes viana the favorite. Sure, she is “hot” (i dont find her that attractive) and finishes all her fights but if you really look into her record, its not that impressive at all. She has some atrocious losses in the ufc (hardy, cifers come to mind) and all of her wins are against girls who are simply not ufc level. I will say, she hits really hard for a woman, but her technique is bad. She also doesnt move her head well and gets hit a lot as a result. I dont think her bjj is nearly as good as it looks; she has double digit submissions but its all against girls who can’t grapple. She throws up armbars and triangles but when you watch her fight someone who knows how to grapple, they man handle her. When Viana cant get the sub, she just plays jiu jitsu off her back, which we know is not a viable strategy. And then watching hardy pass her guard and armbar her with ease was just so embarrassing. Lucindo is still a work in progress as a fighter but she looks so good considering how young she is. She is only 20 (might be 21 now) but she has shown great composure & a lot of improvements since her time on the regional scene. Her striking needs a lot of work but she does not shy away from a brawl and, much like viana, also hits hard for a woman. Despite this, her technique is pretty bad; all of her shots are so wild and looping. What most people dont know about lucindo is she started out as a grappler, the striking has magically improved since joining the ufc. Her grappling is really good; it looked bad against brogan, but that was also up a weight class and short notice so ill give her the pass here. IN her other fights, she is super dominant on the ground. IN this fight, she will be able to get takedowns at will; viana doesnt have good tdd & willingly goes to the mat because she can work her armbars. Lucindo knows how to grapple so i think she will avoid the sub and ride out a lot of control time. I think this will be pretty similar to the ricci fight. I think skill for skill lucindo is much better. She needs a lot of refining, but I have never liked viana. I think her skills are really bad, people just forget that because she always gets a crazy highlight reel finish. 

* Edited at 08.10.2023, 8:50 PM ET *

Rountree vs. Daukaus
Khalil Rountree, TKO, R2
I think that Khalil is gonna win by ko/tko with a straight hand i dont know if it's gonna be a jab or a cross in the second round i think that because daukaus always goes forward throwing punches with the power of a drop of water without any defense.

Luque vs. dos Anjos
Rafael dos Anjos, SUB, R1
Of chiesa And Muhammad take the back of Vicente I think rda is gonna do it And Will submit it with a rear naked choke just like with barbarena but this time is gonna be in the first round

Swanson vs. Dawodu
Hakeem Dawodu, TKO, R1
Hakeem is gonna win by ko/tko with a Muay Thai combo he is very good at Muay Thai combos in the first round

 "Poor JP Buys, the guy can not catch a break. About a month ago, we witnessed Marcus McGhee stepping in to fight Journey Newson on three days’ notice. Now, McGhee will take on Buys with an entire training camp.Three years ago, JP Buys was at the top of the world. Making history as the first husband and wife combination to receive UFC contracts on the 2020 contender series. Since that 2020 victory, everything has spiraled out of control. His former wife (Cheyanne Vlismas) left him for Roman Dolidze. Not to mention Buys is on a three-fight losing streak and on the verge of being cut from the UFC.With all that said, JP Buys does not stand a chance against Marcus McGhee. Even more, so that McGhee had an entire training camp to prepare."

Hahaha you built a website just to make analysis on fights like this? Surface level stuff, do better.