The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Aspinall vs Tybura Aspinall KO RD 1
The legend tommy aspinall is back. I dont want to say his last fight was a fluke but it definitely wouldnt end that way again. Def concerning to see his knee got destroyed but hes so young and looks in amazing shape so i dont think it will be that much of an issue. Speaking of his shape, my god does he look good. Aspinall is walking around at like 280+ and he is all muscle; his physique now is almost as good as pavlovich’s. Tybura is a great vet but this is a terrible matchup for him. Tybura’s whole style is start slow and use his cardio and grappling to grind you out and win. But tommy wont let him do that. For starters, tybura has never been a good striker. He starts off really slow and almost lets his opponents tee off on him, waits for a pause, then starts to grind them out as they slow down. Yeah, thst style works well against bad fighter but aspinall is super elite. Just watching guys like walt harris and greg hardy almost ko tybura is very concerning, cuz aspinall is one hell of a striker. His volume is insane and his shot selection is super impressive for a hw. If tybura does try to shell up and wait for tommy to blow his losd, that wont work either. Aspinall’s cardio is untested, but watching him land 40+ strikes on arlovski in 30 seconds without slowing down was scary to watch. If tybura tries to shell up aspinall will just tee off on him until he either goes out or the fight gets stopped. Aspinall can grapple him if he wants too. The timing on his takedowns are just ridiculous and when he gets to the mat hes shown he can dominate all he wants. This should be a cakewalk for aspinall. I dont see him losing in the ufc again for a very long time. He is one of the most elite hw’s ive seen in a minute
McCan vs Stoliarenko McCan KO RD 1
I despise molly mccann. Her whole personality is based off of riding paddy’s coattails, being a lesbian, and being scouse. I mean she is just unlikable its insane. Sure, she brings it in the cage but shes so bad the ufc has to stoop this low just to get her a win. This is pathetic by the ufc tho; stoliarenko has never been close to ufc level and shouldnt be here currently. To make things worse, shes a multiple time weight misser now being forced to fight at 125 (keep in mind she fainted weighing in at 135). WOuld be sweet to see this get called off on fight day bc of weight cut ngl. Regardless of if she makes weight or not, mccann is jyst gonna bully her. Stoliarenko is a one trick pony, she throws up that armbar then if she doesnt get it she looks for a way out. No striking, no defense, no heart, no cardio. I dont wanna call mccann a lock because she is dog****, but the ufc is giving her the easiest fight possible. All she has to do is avoid the ground then wait 60 seconds before julija quits.
Wood vs Fili Wood DEC
Getting a little bored of writing so much so gonna go shorter on these last few. I really hated wood moving up to 145; I thought he was having great success at 135 & even beat kenney. However, he has roved me wrong and looked very good so far. They gave him rosa for a freebie and he basically killed the man, then he dominated jourdain. That performance was flawless to me. He *****ed jourdain in every aspect of mma & made him look amatuer. Theres so much to like about wood. He has insane cardio and a vicious stieking game. He is heavy on leg kicks and has some beautiful boxing. He does leave his chin up in the air at times but ever since the dodson fight he has done a better job of not doing that. When he does get hit, hes got one hell of a chin but still you gotta be careful. While he is mostly a striker, wood has underrated grappling too. Very low center of gravity which makes it hard to take him down & he also has a really solid bjj game. The one thing i dont liker about wood at 145 is the size advantage. You can get away being 5’6 at 145 but he is on the smaller side which i just dont like. Fili is a good test. He is an ultra vet & is inconsistently consistent. What i mean by this is every fight he alternates between looking a career best and looking barely ufc level. Ive never seen anything like it. The example i always point to is the pineda and brito fights. Against pineda fili looked amazing. His boxing was insane and he was sniping pineda with everything. He avoided every punch from pineda and was rocking him with everything he landed. Then against brito, it was like he forgot how to strike. Brito kept winging that right hook and fili walked into it 8 times without adjusting and got slept. **** happens but a ufc vet with as many fights as fili should NOT be walking into a punch like that; thats some amatuer **** right there. Fili won his last fight (looked really bad but algeo makes everyone look ****) so that means hes gonna show up a shell of himself here (only half joking of course). Fili also has a good wrestling backhgorund he goes to. Its nothing special but his wrestling is very solid. I expect wood to be able to outpoint fili, especially with those leg kicks. He has to worry about the size advantage and the wrestling of fili but i expect him to find a way.
Craig vs Muniz Muniz SUB RD 3 
This fight has the potential to be really good or really bad and no inbetween. Craig to 185 is such a bad move imo. Going down a weight class wont solve craig’s issues; the reason hes not winning fights is because hes a one trick pony and has refused to ever evolve. Theres also the weight curt; craig is a decently big lhw who has never had a good chin. Now, muniz is not known for having ko power but craig cutting extra weight is gonna hurt that glass chin. Craig has some absurd wins on his resume but, and im sorry for offending craig fans, he is just so ******* bad. Craig is very good at one thing and one thing only, his guard. Craig has one of the best open guards in mma. He is just simply a master of waiting for you to **** up and fall into a sub. However craig is simply too reliant on getting that sub. His striking is nonexistent and honestly so is his wrestling. He doesnt have any wrestling at all and only gets the fight down by repeatedly pulling guard and hoping to trap your arm so you fall down with him. When he does get you down, he is gonna sandbag until you slip up and he can sub you. It always works until it doesnt; I hate this strategy of taking an ass whooping just to win one second of the fight because its so risky. And we’ve seen time and time again that all you have to do is avoid the ground to beat craig. Then we have muniz who got exposed his last fight. I was never super high on the muniz train but man he got embarrassed by allen. He got exposed for his bad cardio (whihc was already present in past fights) and got dragged out and beaten by the better fighter. Muniz is just a better paul craig. He is paul craig if he adapted his bjj to more than just subs from guard. Muniz has serviceable striking and a really good blast double, which is enough to beat craig as it is. However, hes not gonna be afraid to go to the ground with craig, which is what will screw craig here. Now, craig has beaten guys who are very good on the ground before but its different here. Muniz is gonna shoot that blas double likely isntantly and craig will get taken down. Whats different about muniz than other guys craig has fought is he will not allow craig to guard up, instead hes probably gonna lie on him. I think his bjj is just simply better than craigs, as logn as he avoids the guard he can probably do whatever he wants to craig (see craig vs crute). I wouldnt even be shocked by amuniz ko; two grapplers almost always ends up being a kickboxing fight and both atre chinny. 
Herbert vs Ziam Ziam KO RD 2 
This is really good matchmaking. Both these guys are a lot better than their records look & they are both finally fighting another striker, so we should see the best of them. Starting with Herbert, ive disrespected his skills a lot but he is actually a solid fighter. The reason he loses a lot in the ufc is a mixture of brutal matchmaking and also having no chin. Jai is a gigantic 155er and brings slick kickboxing to each fight. I feel like his ko losses in the ufc have made him regress a little bit. His skills are still there but he hasnt seemed to let his hands go ever since the topuria loss. Makes sense obviously but it is concerning to see. Even against ludovit klein or nelson where he had a huge size advantage he would still not do anything. He would just pick his shots and resign to winning a boring decision. When he does let his hands go, herbert is a really good striker. He is already super lanky but has a ton of power in his hands. I love that head kick he hit on ilia too. His most recent fight vs klein was just weird. He really should have won since that point deduction was bs but it still was a flat performance. He did show some improved grappling but he really couldve let his hands go more. And then Ziam had one of the craziest improvements in between fights ive ever seen. Before the fuglak fight, ziam was very disappointing. He had a winning record but with different judges couldve been 0-3-1 with some very bad losses. The thing about ziam is hes always had very good striking, but no idea how to fight off the backfoot & no grappling. He got cut after losing to terrance (loss is aging horrible btw) but then resigned for a short notice bout against fuglak. For this fight, Ziam had linked up with henri hooft (hes still at kill cliff but has also been training with khamzat and the luxembourgian dagis this camp) and looked like a totally new version of himself. Now, I dont know if he looked so good because he improved, because figlak is a fraud, because he fought a regional guy on short notice, or what but he looked damn good. Like literally every hole he previously had appeared to be fixed. Figlak is known as a pressure guy so to see ziam walk him down and even hurt him off the backfoot was very impressive to see. Then he defended every takedown and even took figlak down a few times. When ziam is allowed to fight his fight, his striking is super clean. Hes a classic euro style kickboxer, super lanky guy and just really sharp and technical. I think is power is underrated too but we never see if because hes always getting outwrestled. This fight is a pickem & while i do think it will be close, i think this maktchup better favors ziam. Not only is herbery gonna strike with him, herbert is also a point fighter so that should favor ziam. Not that herbert cant be technical, but weve seen him recently look so timid on the feet where ziam is more than content to trade. I also dont trust the chin of herbert. Hes done a better job of not getting compromised, but hes also been fighting guys way smaller than him who also give him the boring point fight he wants. Ziam is almost just as big as him and can crack so i see him finding the chin at some point. 
Murphy vs Culibao Murphy DEC 
A little annoyed by this booking. While this will be a fantastic striking match, i really wanted to fade lerone against someone better, instead the ufc realizes he could've lost his last fight and are giving him (imo) a step down. This fight is boxing vs kickboxing. Culibao is pretty underrated and tends to fly under the radar. He is a really sharp and calculated kickboxer. Hr takes his time to make reads and is an incredible counter striker. He doesnt have insane power but he is so good at countering that its caused him to drop a bunch of people. Honestly hes just a really smart fighter in general. I like to point to that melsik fight for his fight iq; culibao was losing every second of that fight and saw melsik make a mistake (the slip) so he went to the ground and snatched up the opportunity; culibao isnt a grappler at all but he knew melsik has a questionable ground game and jumped on it. I really wish he would grapple more but im not sure if culibao can actually grapple well at all. Its annoying because the path to victory against murphy is so clear at this point; you just keep shooting takedowns and you win the fight. However, Culibao has never even attempted a tkaedown in the ufc so hoping for him to wrestle seems futile. Since he wont wrestle I dont see him outpointing murphy. MUrphy is a very very clean boxer. He also checks leg kicks well which will be huge against culibao. Overall, I just dont see murphy losing to many strikers outside the top 15. His 0 is gonna be lost soon tho

Aspinall vs. Tybura
Tom Aspinall, TKO, R1
very happy toms back tybura will get dominated by toms power

McCann vs. Stoliarenko
Molly McCann, DEC
molly defends takedowns and beats her face in

Wood vs. Fili
Nathaniel Wood, TKO, R1
wood is gonna dominate this fight

Diakiese vs. Alvarez
Joel Alvarez, SUB, R1
so this fight could be good and i see a world that diakiese wins but Joel should be able to pressure marc against the fence rock him and guillotine him

Parkin vs. Pogues
Mick Parkin, TKO, R1
Parkin actually looked kind of good in his DWCS fight i fully believe if he presses properly pogues the way he did his past opponents he puts pogues out cold

Barberena vs. Muradov
Makhmud Muradov, TKO, R1
fire fight but barb is old going up a weight and if muradov is anything it’s explosive i think he puts barb out cold fast

Vieira vs. Kianzad
Ketlen Vieira, DEC
pannie literally only beats the lowest level females in the ufc vieira isn’t very good but good enough to get past pannie

Duncan vs. Ashmouz
Chris Duncan, DEC
both these dudes are mid as hell but if duncan doesn’t get chin ed he should be able to mix in grappling and his clinch game to tire out yanal and win the rounds

Brasil vs. Bannon
Bruna Brasil, DEC
this year has shown me to not trust undefeated prospects now i def don’t trust a wmma fighter from ireland who’s undefeated and idk

Filho vs. Barez
Jafel Filho, SUB, R1
filho almost subbed mokaev i expect him to get his ufc w here in hood fashion takedown to the RNC

McCann vs. Stoliarenko
Molly McCann
is it some women's apperciation month or something? why is this the co-main??

Barberena vs. Muradov
Makhmud Muradov, TKO, R2
my pick for FOTN

Aspinall vs. Tybura
Tom Aspinall, TKO, R3
This will be a test to see if Aspinall moves into contendership area, or how low will he drop if loses. The main question, is he 100% recovered from the nasty injury suffered almost 1 year ago.

McCann vs. Stoliarenko
Molly McCann, TKO, R2
stoliarenko most likely will have a tough weight cut...she is taller, this is the layup McCann earned after fighting Blanchfield....

Muniz vs. Craig
Paul Craig, SUB, R2
muniz is undersize...craig will be stronger at 205 is natural weight for him.

Herbert vs. Ziam
Jai Herbert, DEC
pretty even match up....going with the home guy in herbert

Murphy vs. Culibao
Lerone Murphy, DEC
going with the home guy.....crowd will fire him up...

Grant vs. Marcos
Davey Grant, TKO, R3
going with the veteran experience.

Roberts vs. Parsons
Danny Roberts, DEC
roberts is the more active fighter....

Barberena vs. Muradov
Makhmud Muradov, TKO, R2
Loser of the fight could get cut from the UFC

Chris Duncan vs. Yanal Ashmouz

Yanal 

Duncan vs. Ashmouz
Yanal Ashmouz, TKO
Most Confident pick RED FOX

@Tapology 

Red Fox to KO Duncan... Surely the lock of the card... Any tips people?? comments would be appreciated

* Edited at 07.17.2023, 4:13 AM ET *

Aspinall vs. Tybura
Tom Aspinall, TKO, R2
I think Tom will have to shake off some ring rust in the first, but after that it'll be one way traffic for Tom.

McCann vs. Stoliarenko
Molly McCann, TKO, R2
If Stoliarenko makes the weight and takes her time and finds the takedown, I can definitely see Molly by KO.

Wood vs. Fili
Nathaniel Wood, DEC
Wood should dominate all the striking exchanges in this one, Wood is top 15 level at this weight class.

Muniz vs. Craig
André Muniz, TKO, R2
I think the weight cut affects Craig's chin and he gets clocked. As long as Muniz doesn't fall victim to the mythical Paul Craig triangle, I think Muniz takes it.

Herbert vs. Ziam
Fares Ziam, TKO, R3
Ziam looked really good last time out, and Jai has always been a fluky fighter. When Jai is on he's very very good, but when he's off, he looks terrible. I think it'll be an off night for Jai and Ziam picks him apart.

Murphy vs. Culibao
Josh Culibao, DEC
I thought Murphy got a lucky decision last time out. Culibao has looked solid as of late, he's on a good run and I don't see the momentum stopping now. I think if he has trouble in the striking, he has a clear grappling advantage he can exploit for the victory.

Grant vs. Marcos
Daniel Marcos, TKO, R2
I think Marcos kicks Davey's legs early and often. Marcos is great 3 level striker. He can hurt your legs, body, and head very efficiently. I think his volume and 3 level striking will break Davey and Marcos will find a finish.

Roberts vs. Parsons
Jonny Parsons, TKO, R3
Roberts is extremely chinny, and Parsons can crack. I think Roberts will be in control of the fight until he gets caught and it'll be all Parsons from there on out.

Diakiese vs. Alvarez
Joel Alvarez, SUB, R1
I think Alvarez snatches his signature guillotine extremely early. Especially against the wrestle heavy Diakiese we've seen as of late.

Parkin vs. Pogues
Jamal Pogues, DEC
I think Pogues should just outstrike Parkin all 3 rounds. He has a proven 3 round gas tank where Parkin does not. As long as Pogues can stuff the takedowns he should be fine.

Barberena vs. Muradov
Makhmud Muradov, TKO, R2
This is a very weird fight, I'm not a fan of Barberena at middleweight. I think Muradov can chin him easily and if it somehow gets bad for him on the feet, he'll be able to hold Bryan down with him being a natural 185er.

Vieira vs. Kianzad
Ketlen Vieira, DEC
I think this is way closer then the percentages show, but I still think Vieira will edge this one out by decision.

Duncan vs. Ashmouz
Yanal Ashmouz, TKO, R1
Duncan is very chinny and Ashmouz is a huge power puncher, unless Duncan can hold Ashmouz for 15 minutes, I think he gets the lights put out.

Brasil vs. Bannon
Bruna Brasil, DEC
I was high on Brasil coming off of DWCS, but then she got rolled in her debut by Denise Gomes. However we've seen recently that this loss has aged nicely and Gomes is a very solid prospect. So I'm going to continue to be high on Brasil and say she gets it done by decision in a striking clinic.

Filho vs. Barez
Jafel Filho, SUB, R1
I think Filho gets a sub pretty quickly. Barez is on a four fight win streak, but the competition is horrible, and Filho although coming off of a loss almost subbed Mokaev.

does anybody think the legendary paul craig triangle makes a comeback this card ?
or is craig just done at this point

Aspinall vs. Tybura
Tom Aspinall, TKO, R1
Just as long as his Knee doesn't die again, I think Aspinall or Pavlovich are the future and if they get the chance, could be the ones to finally defeat Jon Jones, if he doesn't retire first

McCann vs. Stoliarenko
Molly McCann, TKO, R1
Stoliarenko being offered up as bait for the spinning elbow

Wood vs. Fili
Nathaniel Wood, DEC
Bro could get in a street-fight outside a kebab house at 4am and still win by Unanimous Decision (30-27)

Muniz vs. Craig
Paul Craig, SUB, R3
I've learnt my lesson. Never Bet against Paul Craig and his BJJ Guard

Herbert vs. Ziam
Fares Ziam, DEC
As much as I'd love to see a Jai Herbert KO, I think this goes much the same way as the Figlak fight

Murphy vs. Culibao
Lerone Murphy, DEC
Culibao is good enough to make Murphy win by Decision

Grant vs. Marcos
Davey Grant, TKO, R1
I beg Davey Grant gets it done with a right hand in London

Roberts vs. Parsons
Danny Roberts, DEC
Again, never seen either guy fight, going with the consensus

Diakiese vs. Alvarez
Joel Alvarez, SUB, R1
Diakese's only path to Victory is to Outpoint him, I dont see that happening

Parkin vs. Pogues
Mick Parkin, SUB, R1
Definitely gonna be Parkin, he looks more than solid, Training with Aspinall. The only question is Submission or TKO, on the one hand Pogues has been Submitted Before and Parkin has a Submission Victory Recently, that being said he has some KO Power as well so I believe its Cutters Choice in this instance

Barberena vs. Muradov
Makhmud Muradov, TKO, R2
Barbarena's gonna take the beating like a Champ, but it will only delay the inevitable in my opinion

Vieira vs. Kianzad
Ketlen Vieira, DEC
Don't know **** about either of these fighters so imma be a ******* and go with the majority stat pad

Duncan vs. Ashmouz
Yanal Ashmouz, TKO, R1
Guy with a solid history of Knockouts vs a very hittable chin

Brasil vs. Bannon
Shauna Bannon, DEC
I'm half Irish so was always going to be biased here :)))

Filho vs. Barez
Jafel Filho, SUB, R1
Filho looked really good, that Kneebar against Mokaev was deeper than that xbox controlled submarine right about now, and Barez has a Submission Loss on his record, and so I think Filho by Round 1 RNC

Haven't done a ton of research yet but just looking this card up and down, there should be a decent amount of finishes unlike last week. 

Aspinall vs. Tybura
Marcin Tybura, DEC
win

McCann vs. Stoliarenko
Julija Stoliarenko, DEC
win

Wood vs. Fili
Andre Fili, DEC
win

Muniz vs. Craig
Paul Craig, SUB
win

Herbert vs. Ziam
Fares Ziam, DEC
win

Murphy vs. Culibao
Josh Culibao, DEC
win

Grant vs. Marcos
Daniel Marcos, DEC
win

Roberts vs. Parsons
Jonny Parsons, DEC
win

Diakiese vs. Alvarez
Joel Alvarez, DEC
win

Parkin vs. Pogues
Mick Parkin, DEC
win

Barberena vs. Muradov
Makhmud Muradov, DEC
win

Vieira vs. Kianzad
Pannie Kianzad, DEC
win

Duncan vs. Ashmouz
Chris Duncan, DEC
win

Brasil vs. Bannon
Shauna Bannon, DEC
win

Filho vs. Barez
Jafel Filho, DEC
win

Is Bannon really that good? She hasn't fought anyone particularly amazing, and Brasil had one of the best knockouts ever on DWCS. It's not like her loss has aged horribly. Gomes actually has a nice win streak together 

No, she’s not 

You can just rewatch UFC 286 and you'll have capped half these fights.

Ok, so saying that Brasil will win with confidence is a fair statement then. People are just choosing every person from surrounding areas of the UK to win which is fair, but the smart thing to do is just pick the fighter that is clearly better. I would say Herbert vs. Ziam is pretty even, but bc they are in the UK, I would pick Herbert. If they were in France, I would pick Ziam

I would also say the same thing about Lerone Murphy vs. Josh Culibao. Although, Culibao is way more well-rounded than Murphy. I think on the feet, Murphy might have the slight edge, and Culibao loves to stand and bang, so bc of that and that they are London, I am going to pick Murphy. I think Culibao is the better martial artist tho

Picking Duncan ain't a smart idea. Yanal beat a dude in Sam Patterson who is much technically better than Duncan. My guess is that Yanal is going to either outwrestle Duncan or catch him with a hook while faking a level change since he's more of a grappler with power than a technical kickboxer. As bad as Duncan is, I think it would still be a mistake to try to out point Duncan on the feet without mixing it up since he did get a brutal knockout last time

Parkin is a massive bloke. 

Aspinall vs. Tybura
Tom Aspinall, TKO, R1
This should be a knockout win for Tom Aspinall.