UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Pretty sure he moved to factory x 

Nvm can confirm for a fact he’s at factory x now

So he chose a good camp at least. I wanted to bet him as a dog here but I was really impressed with Gabriel Santos so I'm staying away from that one for now.

He’s getting a really hard comeback fight. However, I do think a long layoff & camp change will have him improved a lot. I saw the same things you did tho; my perception before tape was onama is a technical brawler but on rewatch he gets sloppy & often throws a lot of looping shots. Also his defense is alarmingly bad, I had no idea he got rocked every fight, I thought it was just the armfield and Benitez fights but no, it’s a trend. Much like Santos’s last opponent, onama also has poor defense so he can ride out control if he wants to. I also just think santos is a better striker. Sure he loves to brawl too, but he has actual technique & is really good at making reads during chaos. I really like onama but this is a super tough one to come back to, especially when his confidence might not be as high coming off of the landwher loss

Hello everyone, this is my first post. I have acouple questions about this week im hoping you can shed some light on. For starters, I am a longtime fan of the sport but only recently started betting on it so forgive me if these are self explanatory.

My first question regarding Zhalgas. Why is everyone so high on him this week? I understand that there is a strong opinion that he actually may have won some of previous decision losses, but the fact is he did not. I notice his only UFC stoppage is a submission over someone on a 3 fight losing streak and other than that, does not appear to have any significant finishing ability at this level. His oppenent Van, while green and fighting a lower level of competition, has shown very good finishing ability and IQ in my opinion. For those betting on Zhulgas and not just " picking" him, please do your best to help me understand the rational there.

My second question revolves around Dumas but actualy applies to alot of fighters.  Its quite obvious which skills Dumas needs to improve on, and i would hope he has been building up that skillset. My question is, when a fighter like Dumas clearly shows a need for improvement, how much improvement or skill can actually be gained in a few months ? I see alot of comments like.....fighter x cant stop a takedown etc.

I guess im wondering how common it is for a fighter to improve significantly from their last performance and if this kind of thought process is even worth exploring? 

My third question is simple. It appears to me that Im struggling to pick bantamweight fights correctly. Is there something I need to be focusing on in this weight division? Can someone tell me if this division is typically harder to pick winners?

Thank you to everyone for their insights and pick considerations on these forums. I'm learning alot just listening in the background.

Cheers

* Edited at 06.20.2023, 5:04 PM ET *

Ok you brought me back down to earth here a little bit. I think Lane has a shot but Tafa should win here. When I placed my bet all I was thinking about was the striking difference. I knew Lane was huge but I didn't think the reach difference was gonna be 6 inches. That definitely threw me for a sec. 

I love Radzahbov as a dog and I think Dumas is absolutely trash. I think Rebecki has some tools but Loik can actually strike a little and is way more well rounded and polished. 

I essentially chose Tafa, Radzhabov and Brundage because I saw all of their opponents as some of the worst fighters on the card. But if I'm keeping it real, Tafa isn't anything special either. Hes fun to watch but his quality of competition isn't great and he's not super active. 

I mean Mo Usman just gave the blueprint on how to beat a Tafa: you take them off their feet. Justin and Junior are basically the same fighter. I'd say Junior is a little more athletic but I wouldn't exactly call either a model athlete. 

Lane definitely has the size and strength to try and hold Justin down or against the cage but there's also a very good chance he gets clipped trying to do so. 

@Tapology 

topuria wins by 2nd round sub imo. people forget this man got his first 7 wins in a row by submission

Zhalgas is just fighting someone very green. Results haven't gone his way so far in the UFC but his wins that got him into the UFC are impressive. While he's not a finisher himself, he's always in competitive fights and is very hard to put away. The only finish loss he has is to arguably the best/scariest finisher in the division. Hes the favorite due to the experience advantage though no question. I think both things can be true here essentially. Van will probably lose this fight but overall have a much better career in the UFC long term. 

I would say improving depends on many factors. Depends on the individual and how dedicated they are. Also depends on who's coaching them. Some guys also have different financial situations which could factor into how frequently they can train. Because of this, I think striking is something that you can improve at quicker than grappling. Grappling requires a training partner, striking requires a punching bag. Striking is months/years, grappling is years/decades. 

Finally, yes, bantamweight is an extremley difficult weight class to pick. It is arguably the deepest division in all of MMA at the moment. I personally agree with that sentiment. It takes a lot of research to pick fights correctly at 135 combined with a bit of luck. Because there's so much talent in that division, some of the fights truly are 50/50. Youre gonna get some wrong. One little piece of advice I can give is momentum is a huge thing in MMA. In a division where the skill differences are sometimes razor thin, sometimes the guy that has just a little bit more "momentum" finds a way to win. 

@foppa yeah I don’t rate tafa very highly but I think the ufc is setting him up for a highlight win here

@foppa420 

Thank you for this reply and taking the time to explain. You know...... I hadnt considered the financial angle AT ALL and thats very interesting to me. That kind of thing is easily over looked by a newbie and I have definatley fallen victim to thinking everyone is on a similar playing field with similar access to decent training partners at this level. Your thought about training stirking opposed to grappling and the requirements is something I also thank you for helping me to understand. You have made me feel much better about my bantamweight record as its about 50/50. I will keep your insight about momentum in mind moving forward

* Edited at 06.20.2023, 4:29 PM ET *

@snesrious dumas switched camps to fusion xcel; a very good grappling gym where jacare and viera roll constantly. Not sure how much improvements he’ll make but at least he knows what he needs to work on

What happen with Taira odd? 

@AyyLmaonnaise 

great insight thank you

Bettors started looking into the fight and realized Rodrigues is probably going to knock him out. One off night against CJ Vergara doesn't erase his entire body of work. 

Emmett vs. Topuria
Ilia Topuria, SUB, R2
Topuria is on the up and Emmett is on the down. El Matador with a convincing win, and then he will win against Volkanowski/Rodriguez. Called it here.

Ribas vs. Barber
Maycee Barber, DEC
Listen, Barber is adorable and I am picking her even though I am convinced she will lose. Sue me.

Tafa vs. Lane
Austen Lane, TKO, R1
Austen Lane used to play for Chicago, and I like Chicago. Lane knocks out Tafa and then drinks a double shot of Malort out of his shoe. Bear Down.

Onama vs. Santos
Gabriel Santos, DEC
Onama cannot recover from the beatdown that Nate the Train handed him. He loses convincingly.

Brown vs. Turman
Wellington Turman, DEC
Solely based off of 'who would I rather not run into in a dark abandoned building', I choose Turman with the upset.

Rębecki vs. Radzhabov
Mateusz Rębecki, TKO, R3
I liked Rebeasti in his contender series win and I liked how he looked against Fiore. Tajiks are always a tough matchup but I think he pulls it out and wins a tough matchup.

Ricci vs. Robertson
Gillian Robertson, SUB, R2
Giving it to the submission queen in round 2 after Ricci likely wins round 1.

Zhumagulov vs. Van
Zhalgas Zhumagulov, DEC
This is a tough fight to pick. 13 year age difference is no joke. Zhako has looked competitive in most of his fights and I figure he is going to take advantage of his second chance. I will say that the updated Tap profile on him looks slightly terrifying.

Peek vs. Mariscal
Trevor Peek, TKO, R1
I like Peek. He has no technical skill but he reminds of a the main character from the movie 'Goon' and I think he channels the inner goon that he is and breaks Mariscal's face very quickly

Emmers vs. Jenkins
Jack Jenkins, TKO, R2
Phar out bruh knocks out average boy Jamall Emmers

Taira vs. Rodrigues
Tatsuro Taira, DEC
What a great matchup with two up and coming prospects. Would rather have these two on the main card than David Onama v Santos. Taira takes it.

Brundage vs. Dumas
Cody Brundage, DEC
There is a reason this is the first fight on the card. Arguably the most boring fight. Brundage will for sure be cut if he loses and he really doesn't have a win against anyone notable. However, Dumas really looked like garbage in his debut fight so I say Brundage takes the decision win, and both probably get cut anyways.

Lol @ Rodriguez knocking out Taira.

Sure bro, sure. 😆 

Thanks for the info. That was valuable. I am going to hammer Cody Brundage then.

Dumas the dumbass continues to show low IQ. He doesn't need a white belt in BJJ. He needs to learn wrestling and takedown defence. Cody is going to wreck him if he doesn't get clipped in the first minute