UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Anyone know where I can find a readily available list or stats on 'short notice fight UFC contract fighter' results? 

Off hand, the only UFC short notice signed fighters I can think of that got the call last minute & won are Victor Henry & Elvis Brenner (Brenner lost IMO). Brunno Ferreira doesn't count because he was already signed via Contender series, and William Gomis doesn't count as both him & Errens were both last minute signings

* Edited at 02.18.2023, 5:22 PM ET *

Krylov vs. Spann
Nikita Krylov, TKO, R2
Skill for skill krylov is 10x the fighter Spann is, but I can’t call him a lock because Spann is very dangerous. Spann has a lot of flaws but he makes up for it by being gigantic for 205, freakishly athletic, big power, and a good guillotine. Krylov has a weird drunken karate style on the feet, but he’s a much better technical striker than Spann. He also takes a punch better where Spann has a glass jaw. Krylov also has way better wrestling and grappling. As long as he avoids the guillotine and stays out of spans guard he should have easy success on the ground

Muniz vs. Allen
André Muniz, DEC
Im gonna be honest, im not really sold in muniz just yet, but he should win this fight. I think brendan allen is very underrated, but he’s also inconsistent. His kickboxing is really solid but at the same time he’s also very hittable. His bjj is also very good, but he doesn’t get up off his back and will willingly engage with Muniz on the ground so instant disadvantage there. Muniz has seriously impressive bjj but honestly he’s not very impressive when he can’t implement his game. His has a shaky chin, bad striking, and he gets tired when he faces resistance. However, I think allen will be too willing to grapple with him so muniz should win

Sakai vs. Mayes
Augusto Sakai, TKO, R1
Both are so dog**** but there’s levels of trash. Sakai can probably beat most guys outside the top 15 (assuming his chin isn’t totally gone) and Mayes is barely in the ufc. Mayes is big and athletic but has the worst fight iq ever and is also chinny. Sakai should win this

Malott vs. Lainesse
Mike Malott, TKO, R1
I have no idea why the tapology odds are so lopsided, this is a coinflip to me. We know yohan is a one round fighter and I have to assume malott is also a one round fighter since he never leaves the first. Yohan is actually decent but has 2 minutes of cardio. He has a long frame and hits very hard. He also has serviceable grappling but it’s nothing amazing. Malott looks good from the limited tape there is on him, but it’s so hard to tell how good he actually is. His boxing technique is very solid and he too hits very hard. His chin does seem pretty suspect tho. His bjj seems very slick too; he’s fast at getting your neck and has a very tight squeeze. It’s hard to tell how he does outside round 1, but I think he should beat yohan. Again, this is a coinflip to me

Suarez vs. De La Rosa
Tatiana Suarez, TKO, R2
Other than suarez somehow being totally washed she is a lock here. She is an elite grappler and she’s fighting a girl who has no plan b if she can’t outwrestle you. Should be an easy domination for suarez

Leavitt vs. Martinez
Jordan Leavitt, SUB, R2
Striker vs grappler. I am so unimpressed with martinez. I don’t even know how he got a contract. He was only able to win the fight because his opponent didn’t have any heart. Martinez output is solid, but his striking is sloppy and he doesn’t really hit hard. Leavitt has no striking other than weka leg kicks, but his grappling really solid. Martinez makes so many mistakes on the ground I just can’t see how leavitt doesn’t sub him

Cowan vs. Perez
Ailin Perez, SUB, R2
Gonna go perez here. Cowan is actually very talented but doesn’t know how to fight. Her record is very unimpressive when you look through it. She’s only beaten cans and has some questionable wins on her record (should’ve lost the cloudy fight). She also has 0 ground game. She can’t stop takedowns and doesn’t have good bjj. Just stylically, this is a bad fight for her. Perez’s game plan is to wrestle you and win with gnp or a sub. Cowans athleticism may help her reverse some positions, but given the stylistic matchup I can’t pick her.

Johnson vs. Armfield
Garrett Armfield, DEC
This is a tough one for me. I think armfield is actually very talented. He has a d1 wrestling background and has also learned how to strike. In fact, I think his striking is actually better than his wrestling. His boxing is very sharp and he mixes up his attacks well. He also has solid wrestling too but he doesn’t use it as much as he should. Johnson is a weird case. He is the biggest bantamweight on the roster and is very dangerous everywhere the fight goes. However, he also has very bad tdd. This id a close fight, but seeing how armfield only has a 1 inch disadvantage on the reach, I think he will have a lot more success on the feet than I originally thought. He can also mix in the wrestling if he wants as Johnson’s tdd is nonexistent

Aliev vs. Alves
Nurullo Aliev, TKO, R3
I don’t like this fight only because I like both guys a lot and don’t want either to lose. This is a tough debut but aliev but I think he will pass. Watching his tape outside the ufc, I was very impressed. His striking looks much better outside the ufc (he didn’t show it a lot on dwcs). His wrestling is very good and I was shocked seeing he only has 2 finishes because watching his tape he destroys everybody on the ground. He takes them down, holds them down, and smashes them. Alves is really dangerous but doesn’t do a whole lot. He will do a lot of nothing and then explode with crazy punches and also has a very dangerous guillotine. Other than that, I think he just gets wrestled ******

Fernandes vs. Jasudavicius
Gabriella Fernandes, DEC
Gotta feel bad for Jasmine; she went from a freebie win to another unknown brazilian prospect. I have to rewatch gabi’s tape but I remember being very impressed with her striking and bjj. I don’t know how good her tdd is which is the tough thing about this fight. However, Jasmine is far from a world beater so she could lose this.

Osbourne vs. Johnson
Charles Johnson, TKO, R2
Johnson is one of my favorites, really happy he took this fight. I also love this fight for him. Ode is a big flyweight and is very atheltic, but he doesn’t pick up on reads on the feet very well. Johnson has been grinding at tiger Muay Thai literally right after the flick fight, so you know he’s ready. His striking is already very high kevel and I expect him to outclass ode. He has him beat everywhere the fight goes

Gonzalez vs. Peek
Trevor Peek, TKO, R1
A harder fight for peek but he should still win. I think he’s totally awful but he does two things well; take an ass whooping and hit hard. Gonzalez is very low level but one thing he does well is just stay in your face and not **** off. His striking is some of the worst I’ve ever seen and he gets clipped all the time, but he will of casually land a hard shot of his own. Peek should be able to the find the chin and weather the storm

Solecki vs. Deaton III
Joe Solecki, SUB, R1
I don’t think solecki is very good but he should easily win this. Deaton is the perfect matchup for him. He’s got decent striking but doesn’t throw much & isn’t very accurate. He doesn’t really have good tdd either. Solecki is very one dimensional but he’s great in that one dimension. Should be an easy w

* Edited at 02.18.2023, 10:14 PM ET *

Krylov vs. Spann
Nikita Krylov, SUB, R3
Only one more card in the lamepex then we get stacked cards with crowds for at least the next couple months. Both guys have questionable fight IQ & Spann is dangerous early but his chin is sus & krylov is more well rounded

Muniz vs. Allen
André Muniz, SUB, R2
I wouldn't be surprised if Allen wins because his strength is grappling & he's probably the better striker but I think this fight will end up on the mat at some point & Muniz is a wizard on the ground

Sakai vs. Mayes
Augusto Sakai, DEC
Both trash but Sakai has fought better competition. Wouldn't be surprised if mayes wins tho

Malott vs. Lainesse
Mike Malott, TKO, R2
Lainesse has the power but malott has the speed and accuracy

Suarez vs. De La Rosa
Tatiana Suarez, DEC
Suarez should dominate but it's been over 3.5 years since she's fought so thats my only worry

Leavitt vs. Martinez
Jordan Leavitt, SUB, R2
Victor is a stocky tank with good hands but once the fight hits the ground its over for him

Cowan vs. Perez
Hailey Cowan, DEC
Both trash but at least Cowan has heart. Perez is only in the ufc because she twerks

Johnson vs. Armfield
Jose Johnson, SUB, R3
Tough fight to pick. Armfield doesn't seem too bad but I think Jose is a little more well rounded

Aliev vs. Alves
Nurullo Aliev, DEC
Alves is dangerous especially early and has the experience but aliev has great cardio and is non stop with his grappling

Fernandes vs. Jasudavicius
Gabriella Fernandes, DEC
Fernandes is basically just a more powerful version of jasmine

Osbourne vs. Johnson
Charles Johnson, TKO, R2
I don't trust Osbournes chin

Gonzalez vs. Peek
Trevor Peek, TKO, R3
Peek is non stop. Gonzalez won't be able to handle the pace or damage

Solecki vs. Deaton III
Joe Solecki, SUB, R2
Solecki looks worse every fight but he should be able to out grapple the smaller guy coming in on short notice

* Edited at 02.18.2023, 10:36 PM ET *

Damn the odds on this card are solid. Makes me worry about how confident I am on some of these picks 

Krylov vs. Spann
Nikita Krylov, SUB, R2
I think Spann's a little chinny. He's skilled, but I feel as though Krylov can get in his face and overwhelm him. Lately he's been very good that. Moreover, I don't see Krylov throwing left body kicks in boxing range, and I definitely don't see him fighting like Cirkunov in recent form. Although, his fight IQ is very questionable sometimes. Still though, I think he should be able to put Spann away.

Muniz vs. Allen
André Muniz, SUB, R1
I haven't been too impressed with Brendan Allen, but he is only 27. And he's got some nice names on his record. But I see him as too defensively-unaware in the grappling department sometimes, and Muniz is a viper. He can't slip up for more than 10 seconds.

Suarez vs. De La Rosa
Tatiana Suarez, DEC
If Suarez doesn't pull out, and she looks to be in good enough form, I think she's going to run a train on the division.

Gonzalez vs. Peek
Trevor Peek, TKO, R2
This will probably throw Erick onto the chopping block.

Muniz vs. Allen
André Muniz, DEC
A lot of position changes in the ground floor, but this knowledge will still decide Muniz

Sakai vs. Mayes
Augusto Sakai, DEC
Sakai I am wrestler now.

Malott vs. Lainesse
Yohan Lainesse, TKO, R1
ONE PUNCH KO

Suarez vs. De La Rosa
Tatiana Suarez, DEC
Pure wrestling domination. 5.5 takedowns +

Leavitt vs. Martinez
Jordan Leavitt, SUB, R2
Back take - RNC.

Cowan vs. Perez
Hailey Cowan, DEC
Ailin is too slow. Boring WMMA fight with a lot of clinch.

Johnson vs. Armfield
Jose Johnson, TKO, R1
Sprawl n Brawl. Rear Straight to GNP.

Aliev vs. Alves
Rafael Alves, TKO, R1
Knee. Blitz KO

Fernandes vs. Jasudavicius
Gabriella Fernandes, DEC
Gabriella it's more sharp.

Osbourne vs. Johnson
Ode Osbourne, DEC
Counters that will sit much more effectively than Johnson's volume.

Gonzalez vs. Peek
Trevor Peek, TKO, R2
Slam.

Solecki vs. Deaton III
Joe Solecki, DEC
Striking 50 50% Wrestling 30 70% Solecki Ground Game 15 85% Solecki

Krylov better expose this glass cannon bum. 

Really liking Charles Johnson nurullo aliev and joe solecki as a first half treble especially at the odds that are presented  , if that lands then I’m going to probably parlay Suarez peek leavitt malott and the krylov fight not to go the distance, not 100% sure on the malott fight and the peek fight yet at the minute tho so will need to take a deeper look into them

I think Allen is underrated. Muniz is overrated in that matchup

I'm a huge Brenden Allen fan and think overall he's very underrated for a guy that's 7-2 in the UFC, but the reality is he's fumbled his last two opportunities against ranked fighters. Of his 5 wins, 7 are by submission. If anybody honestly thinks Brenden Allen has a chance of subbing Andre Muniz you should put a bet slip on that prop immediately, because the odds on that happening have to be completely absurd.

The only person to beat Muniz in the last 6 years is Azamat Murzakanov, who for anyone that lives under a rock is an undefeated LHW whos already ranked in the UFC after two fights and has 4 straight finishes. You have to go back all the way to 2013 to find Muniz' next loss.

I'm genuinely surprised Muniz isn't a 2 to 1 favorite at open and expect those odds to swell as the week progresses. Muniz has very boring, basic striking which is very good for Allen because he gets hit a ton, but this fight is a mismatch anywhere else.

Muniz should have a strength advantage because he's really closer to a LHW than a MW, where as Allen has the perfect build for 185. 

Andrew's picks where spot on, his picks and my own research made me 9k last night 

Gonzalez is a bad choice. He isn't really in the Game while Peek is and Peek has doesn't care to get hit. 
I favor slightly Peek 

One point worth mentioning for Allen is he's about as active as you can be in MMA. This guy has at least 3 fights a year going all the way back to 2016. That kind of consistency is absolutely noteworthy. It's also worth mentioning that while all 5 of Allen's losses haven't been in the UFC, they've all been to fighters currently on the UFC roster.

On the flip side, Muniz isn't as active. Both fighters basically debuted at the same time in the UFC in fall of 2019. Allen has fought 9 times while Muniz has fought 5. However, Muniz made quick work of one of the only guys to beat Allen in that time frame (Anders). While it's definitely fair to say Allen has improved drastically since that loss, it's also probably fair to say so did Anders, meaning Muniz made quick work of a better version of Anders.

Conflicted how I feel about this fight. If Muniz wins by decision and doesn't make a statement, we're just left with tons of questions still about both guys.

Can Allen ever beat a top 7-10 guy?

Is Muniz really a potential title challenger or just a ranked gatekeeper who will sub all but top 5 quality talent?

* Edited at 02.19.2023, 9:38 AM ET *

Krylov vs. Spann
Nikita Krylov, SUB, R2
Krylov's grappling is really good and he's only lost to the best in the division. I think Spann is getting too much hype for beating Dom when we have to consider that Dom might be washed.

Muniz vs. Allen
André Muniz, DEC
Either guy could win this but I rate Muniz much higher.

Sakai vs. Mayes
Augusto Sakai, TKO, R2
Mayes got worked by an Egyptian can crusher. If Sakai loses this he needs to hang up the gloves.

Suarez vs. De La Rosa
Tatiana Suarez, SUB, R2
Glad to see Tatiana back.

Gonzalez vs. Peek
Trevor Peek, TKO, R1
Don't know jack about Peek but I think Gonzalez is far too fragile to make it out of this fight.

Osbourne vs. Johnson
Charles Johnson, TKO, R2
Ode is chinny and I think InnerG will catch him as long as he doesn't play with his food.

Aliev vs. Alves
Nurullo Aliev, DEC
Aliev by relentless wrestling and pressure.

Cowan vs. Perez
Hailey Cowan, DEC
Low tier WMMA. Cowan is more well rounded and has an athletic advantage.

On Paper Allen faced tough competition while Muniz could dodge that. People always look at the short term carreer. Long term if Allen worked on his grappling and is able to turn his striking to money I see 60/40 for him

I can't stand sports journalism in general because most of it's just low quality, but MMAJunkie gives a new meaning to that term. "Reporting" an "offensive tweet to" a community of like minded sports fans isn't "journalism". It's white knight, virtue signaling ******** nobody cares about.

Does anybody care about a has-been, roided up fighter who hasn't been in the UFC for 5 years? No, and I damn sure don't care about anything the guy tweeted.

"Marquardt, who has been outspoken about his Christian beliefs during his career, got torn apart in the replies to his bigoted tweet.(And, of course, this being MMA, there was a small percentage of tweets in support of his needless and hateful post, as well.)You can check out some of the responses below."

Yeah it was SOOOOOO "needless" and "hateful" you decided to spread it and get paid for it via clicks.