UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Yeah that’s my one worry with blagoy. He makes every fight unecessarily close, even when he’s way better than the guy he’s fighting. This fight is really close but I think it’s a harder fight for tybura than it is for blagoy

I think Ivanov vs Tybura is gonna = Alex vs Jan. Ivanov is gonna completely outclass Tybura. It's a ******* mismatch tbh. Tybura should be getting idk like, Arlovski or other fighters who are here just for money. How the **** is Tybura even ranked? 

Am i wrong for saying Damir changed his life?

I am avoiding the Choi fight. I have a feeling that Nelson will try to do exactly what he did against Herbert and clinch. I can see this going over 1.5. But he also could get clipped any moment so it's really tricky

Choi just has to survive round 1 and he wins. Nelson was gassed after the sluggish pace against Herbert too. He just doesn’t have cardio. He hits decently hard and realistically SHOULDNT ko choi but choi is only getting worse with age imo. He should easily win this one

Best bets for me - and especially for all you "value" guys

1. Taira ITD
2. Sareghi ITD
3. Kino****a ITD
4. Tybura/Blagoy o2.5
5. Tuilinian
6. Lewis 
7. Jeong Lee 

I like all of these. Also like Kim but I have a weird feeling this fight could end in a finish.

I don't see Nelson finishing Choi. I think his power is over rated

* Edited at 01.30.2023, 5:14 PM ET *

Good point about Nelsons cardio. Will factor that in

I wont have confidence in a fighter getting his first professional win in 7 years in Choi. I'm picking him to win but that's a just sit back and watch fight.

Also about Nelson's cardio. I don't think he's always rd1 or bust kind of fighter, sometimes he makes it through 2 rounds without slowing down. Against Sayles he was dominated in the first round but came back and was very close to submitting Sayles in the second. Sayles is not very good but it showed that Nelson can fight back through adversity.

* Edited at 01.30.2023, 5:16 PM ET *

@rah I don’t think he will finish choi either, but it’s definitely a concern. Choi has looked washed since the Swanson fight and doesn’t look like he’s been improving with every subsequent fight. He should win this one easily since it’s a big step down for him but still hard to be confident in him since he’s essentially damaged goods 

Someone whos cardio looked very suspect to me is Saragih. I've only seen his quarterfinals fight from Road to the UFC but he really fell off a cliff in rd2 in that fight. He was fighting some bum and having his way with him then suddenly started huffing and puffing and sticking out his tongue. It was really weird, I can't recall offhand a fighter that had that little resistance in a fight that gassed that badly out of nowhere. Especially in a light weight class.
Makes me wonder if he had a massive adrenaline dump or some issue going on for that one fight. If it was because of not having cardio for grappling exchanges that is a bit worrying for him vs Jubli.

At the end of the day I have to pick the fighter from a better fighting region in Indonesia (vs India), who has 3 years more fight experience and 2.5x the amount of competetive fights but both these guys look pretty low level to me.

I don't recommend  having low level female fight huge favorite in parley just because I don't trust low level women with my money, Espacally when they don't win fight, I'm not saying bet Bohm, But I'm saying know what you getting into betting a -300 in a fight like this, 

@gilese tbh Indonesia’s is likely on the same level as indias. Yeah peoples records look better but honestly the level of competition is not much better. None of these guys can strike or grapple very well. I think what was really telling was the RTU fights, where everyone Indonesian got destroyed besides Jeka (he had the easiest level of competition). When you watch his regional fights it’s very sloppy, and he’s getting clipped and outgrappled by bums. What was really telling for me was the Angga Hans fight. That was the most notable name Jeka has fought and he got outstruck and outgrappled for 4 rounds before gassing out after the second round. Anshul’s competition isn’t much better but he beat one of the best guys in India (not saying much I know) in his pro debut and then beating kyung po Kim in RTU. What most people don’t know is jubli had an amateur career where he went 13-0, so he has more experience than what he shows. Watching his debut to his RTU fight, he’s shown great improvements in his striking. He had almost nothing to offer in his debut and then stood and banged with a much better opponent in kim. He’s also got meh wrestling (which is improving; I do really like the timing on his shots tho) and solid bjj skills. Jeka will crumple against anyone who knows how to grapple. He’s shown it before against Angga and I have no doubts he will fade if jubli gets him down

Alright you've convinced me to change pick. It's a pickem by the odds but the fact that Jubli had 13 amateur fights is good for him. I wanted to pick him based on Saragihs terrible cardio in that one match I caught but figured a 6 fight vs 15 fight record is a bit much.

@gilese yeah the amatuer career definitely helps even the playing field lol. I’m a little suspect of jubli’s cardio too, but it seems better than jeka’s plus he has enough in the tank to comfortably win two rounds. He will also have the grappling advantage if he gets hurt or tired so that will help

Lmao Sanko is making her broadcast debut for this card. It shows that this card is absolute dog**** if the D team doesn't even want to show up

I think this card will be a banger.

And I rate Sankos commentary tbh