UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Korean Zombie injured as far as I know

the zombie got sick because of this and moved. Lol

Rah, I’m curious why you chose Tybura over Ivanov. I have Ivanov winning by decision with 80% certainty. I’m about to add him to a 5 leg round robin parlay… but I would like to hear your thoughts before I pull the trigger. 

What is Tybura path to victory? How do you see this playing out? 

Lewis vs. Spivac
Serghei Spivac, TKO, R3
I hope Lewis looks better here, but I'm a fan of Spivac and he has tricky takedowns for a big man. Maybe a late tko on the ground.

Park vs. Tiuliulin
Jun Yong Park, DEC
THE IRON TURTLE

Kinda weird having Tybura or Ivanov as a lock. I'm betting Ivanov because I got it at +140. That fight is a tossup and watching 4 hours of tape on the two didn't change my opinion.

* Edited at 01.30.2023, 3:05 PM ET *

The best version of Tybura has a little bit of an advantage imo but he is a very uneven fighter. You never know which Tybura is showing up. He also seemingly travels back and forth between Poland and the US and he usually looks better in his striking when he's had an american camp. There is just no consistency. If I was sure that Tybura would use his inside leg kick frequently and not spend too much time in the clinch I would stay away from the fight.
Ivanov is the opposite, very good fight IQ and very consistent. Knows exactly what he wants to do in a fight and does so to a decent level. Will never be that impressive by has a high floor. Against physically imposing fighters he will just use superior speed to stay on the outside and point fight them. If they are more his size he usually tries to drain a power puncher of stamina by hanging on them.

He did fight with two kneebraces last time after being out for a long time with injury. He didn't seem diminished in any way though. Experience wise and age wise they're very closely aligned. People will give Tybura more of an edge than he deserves because they overvalue Romanov and consequently Tybura's win there.
Not saying Romanov isn't a great prospect but he is not yet experienced enough to manage his cardio, I made good money on Tybura that fight.

Overall this fight will be close, I line it close to a pickem or no more than a 5% edge on Tybura at most based on a higher ceiling.

you gotta assume tybura will fall off in the next few years because he is 37 and been put out several times. and hes not the cleanest fighter.

idk how people are so confident in tybura.
this is gonna be a 50-50 hw fight. just like all blagoy fights(except when he fought a mobile striker like jds)

its gonna be in the clinch a lot. tybura wont have a big mat advantage.

if tybura runs through blagoy ill be actually shocked

Question to you guys. Is Kyle Nelson really as much of a power puncher as they say? Look at who he has actually knocked out. Not that impressive imo

I think tybura is gonna have a really hard time with blagoy. Blagoy is very hard to take down (tybura wins almost every fight by our grappling his opponents) and blagoy also knows he has an iron chin so he’s not gonna respect Tyburas striking and will walk him down. blagoy is far from a clean or technical striker so it will be close, but he’s gonna be pushing forward 

Also tybura wins a lot of his fights off of making guys gas out then using his cardio and grappling to wear them down. That’s not gonna work against blagoy because he is not only a great grappler himself, but he’s a cardio machine 

* Edited at 01.30.2023, 3:41 PM ET *

@Rah123 I think Nelson has heavy hands. He puts a lot of torque on his punches. At least in the first round it will be a danger for Choi, after that Nelson usually slows down a bit. Choi didn't have much of any head movement and would get tagged in every fight. But again, 3 years since we saw him, who knows what he'll look like now.

Lewis vs. Spivac
Derrick Lewis, TKO, R1
right overhand sleeps spivak cold and lewis is back on the winning track

That is actually what I was thinking when I was watching Tybura fights. He wins by out grabbling and keeping control. I find it very inconceivable that he is going to be able to do that with Blagoy. Realistically the only way I can see him winning a decision is to do what Sakai did. Use leg kicks. But he has to keep his distance. If he allows Blagoy to land as many punches on him as he did on Sakai, I think it will be lights out. 

his ko over reyes shouldnt have much value.
that dude was never the same after the vicious g n p damir gave him

@steel I was also contemplating a ko from blagoy. He just walks you down with no respect and Tyburas chin isn’t amazing. However, he just never finishes in the ufc so it’s kinda risky. Although when you get a fight between two guys who normally go to decijson, I feel like y there’s always a chance for a finish 

Bro I was thinking the same thing. Tybura chin is just too suspect. And I don’t like how he exposes himself while in the pocket. It is just perfect for Blagoy’s over and upper combo. Plus 550 is very tempting. 

What is crazy they have Tybura by KO at plus 450 but Ivanov by KO plus 550. Yeah that don’t make any sense. 

Might be worth a sprinkle from a value standpoint. I think we could definitely see a ko. Ivanov was fighting like he wanted a finish against de lima. 

That is the craziest thing with Blagoy. He fights boring most of the time. When he is up(or when he thinks he is up) he takes his foot off the gas. If someone starts bringing the pressure he starts opening up. Then when he thinks he’s got the round he slows down. If I remember correctly he did that in the Lima fight. I believe it was the second rd. Lima lands some big strikes on him. Then Blagoy returning with big shots of his own. He even had Lima rocked. But then he slows down again. 

I swear he only wants to win by 1 point.