UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@foppa420, you brought up a very good point about Tuivasa.  It is amazing this run he is on but the one key factor for me is the fact that this is the main event of UFC Paris with the headlining French fighter.  This event reminds me of the first London card where most of the British fighters won and it was a "feel good" event so I had to go with Gane on that one.  Also, if you break them down, Gane has more ways to win than Tuivasa has as Gane does have underrated submission ability in addition to a strong chin and elite standup.  

Randy Costa... oh boy.  That kid has such raw talent but he was disappointing the last two fights.  We can give him a pass with the Yanez fight and I dunno what was wrong with him in the most recent one but I still feel he has enough power to put out Guido Cannetti.  

@JrReynolds47, I have a weird way of picking fights.  I like Jonathan Martinez, I think he is a good fighter for what he is but Cub only loses to upper tier fighters and I wouldn't place Martinez on the same level as people who have beaten Cub.  I feel that Cub will beat Martinez then he'll fight another upper tier fighter and lose. 

Oh man, good catch. I just assumed Cub/Martinez was at 145 because Martinez has had a few fights there. Cub moving down definitely causes me to pause. Not at all sure how I feel about that one given his age. Cub is tough as hell but that weight cut, especially at the age, can and will wreck your chin. Definitely gotta sit on that one.

Yeah I think Tai has a pretty tall task in front of him walking into enemy territory against arguably the most talented heavyweight on the planet. 

Costa was my pick from your list just because you worded it "most likely to lose". I'd definitely give him a very good shot against Guido.

Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Sam Alvey 
Michal Oleksiejczuk, TKO, R2 
It is 100% now becoming more stupidity from Alvey rather than bravery in my opinion getting finished now in 2 of his last 3 fights. Both fights against Spann and Un Jung gave me hope that there was a possibility to find that win he deserved. After seeing his last few performances, I haven't seen any improvements and Michal Oleksiejczuk brings it every time. I believe he will punish Alvey with a lot of body shots he enjoys to go for then finish off with ground and pound.  

* Edited at 08.02.2022, 10:31 AM ET *

I've noticed a trend in fighters mixing their love life with work, they find a woman who trains in the gym fall in love and do everything together. This happened to Thiago Santos when he met Yana Kunikatsya (spelling.)

Most successful fighters don't mix the two togethers, it rarely works. Look at some of the most successful fighters their partners were not also fighters, they keep their relationship away from their work. 

The whole Ortega/Tracy Cortez ******** before his fight, this guy talking about street cred in his interviews and just a general *******. I see his career going down hill, also. 

Yeah, yeah. Love's tricky thing in this sport, haha.

Costa v Cannetti is a fun fight. Props to whoever set that one up. Both of them look great in rd 1 (although Cannettis age is showing) and then they typically fall off a cliff.

Some fighters are just more fun to cap than others. I never get tired of watching Vicente Luque and Bryan Barberena take a piece of one another's souls.

Santos vs. Hill
Jamahal Hill, TKO, R2
I'm not going to lie, I haven't watch Santos vs Walker and stop watching Santos vs Ankalaev about half way through because I was bored, Santos fights have been so boring for a long time, Don't get why he still main eventing, I'm hoping Jamahal Hill sleeps him early now, I think he will sleep him early because I just think Jamahal is not going to be scared like Rakic, Magomed and Walker and fight Santos

Luque vs. Neal
Vicente Luque, TKO, R2
Wish this was the main event, No way this fight will be boring and I wish it was 5 rounder, I'll pick Vicente as I think he be better in a brawl,

Pauga vs. Usman
Zac Pauga, DEC
Fade Nepotism

Miller vs. Walker
Brogan Walker, DEC
It's WMMA, Just pick the dog

Sakai vs. Spivak
Sergey Spivak, SUB, R2
Sergay Spivak isn't bad, Only lose in the UFC are too Walt Harris and Tom Aspinall, With wins over Tai, Hardy, Olenik and the GOAT Vanderaa,I fell like Spivak will just expose the wresling, 

* Edited at 08.02.2022, 5:37 PM ET *

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Like 3 days ago, wasn’t 70% of picks on bueno?

Lipski vs. Cachoeira
Ariane Lipski, DEC
Both girl aren't good, I think Lipski is better, But don't know because it bad women MMA, Should be fun one tho

Oleksiejczuk vs. Alvey
Michał Oleksiejczuk, TKO, R2
Why would I pick Alvey, Hasn't won in 5 years in a 9 fight span, I find it funny how he's not cut, Hope he gets slept an have another fight because he a "warrior"

McKinney vs. Gonzalez
Terrance McKinney, TKO, R1
Terrance McKinney is the most dangerous fighter pound 4 pound in the UFC at the moment, He should sleep Gonzalez because he not Drew Dober and Gonzalez got slept by MIller. Don't like -1000 on McKinney, Wouldn't call a guy who gassed in 2 minutes in his last fight a "lock"

Sato vs. Battle
Bryan Battle, DEC
Shouldn't Battle just tanked Sato shot and just land hands on him, Sato is dangerous tho

Witt vs. Quinlan
Josh Quinlan, TKO, R1
Shouldn't Steroid cheat KO glass jaw, Check weigh ins, But Drug cheat will alway a drug cheat in my book,

McKenna vs. Granger
Cory McKenna, DEC
If both girls are ****, Just take the +175 dog and hope for the best

Bueno Silva vs. Egger
Mayra Bueno Silva, DEC
Should Mayra just piece up Egger on the feet, Jujita also arm bar Rose Clark, Not confendent because it's bad women fighting, Could be fun

Pretty low interest card this week for us. Had a bit of an extended look into Terrence McKinney vs Erick Gonzalez (still cannot really believe this matchup is happening), Vicente Luque vs Geoff Neal and the main event between Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill.

Terrence McKinney vs Erick Gonzalez:
McKinney is very well rounded and holds power wherever the fight goes. Main pause on him is obviously due to the cardio dump in his last fight. Gonzalez to me is not UFC level, is completely defensively irresponsible especially moving forward. He will throw his 3-4 punch sloppy combos and hands will be around the hips and IMO will struggle with Terrence's pressure. I fully expect Terrence to throw a counter left off this and hurt Gonzalez and put him away probably early.

Vicente Luque vs Geoff Neal
Close fight here, never been super high on Geoff Neal personally, maybe it's because of the Fortis MMA relation but unsure. 3 rounds definitely favours Neal but I don't think he can stick and move + mix in takedowns to beat Luque like the blueprint. Luque is way too durable and will just move forward and pressure Neal and win exchanges in the pocket. Luque to win a close points decision.

Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill
Years ago, I would favour Santos to win this fight but the decline is sadly evident at this point. Seems hesitant to engage and to throw, kicks especially which is fair enough given the severity of the surgeries post Jones. I still think Santos can have a lot of success with the kicks to the lead leg of Hill. Hill's patience on the feet and his ability to win the battle of foot placement before really engaging is one of his best traits. He has great finishing instinct and Santos' comfortability with having his foot backed up against the cage will be his downfall. Hill via TKO RD

Pauga vs. Usman
Mohammed Usman, TKO, R1
zac a decisionater in fighting guys at 185 pound weight class. i dont like that

I loved those early morning cards we had, this one starts at 4PM for me. I'm guessing everyone outside of the US has to watch this at least at like 2AM or something stupid...???

Santos vs. Hill
Jamahal Hill, TKO, R1
Don't really see Santos getting KO'd but i don't know what other way this fight goes...

Luque vs. Neal
Vicente Luque, DEC
this should be a slobberknocker..

Pauga vs. Usman
Zac Pauga, TKO, R2
Usman will gas after a round and a half, finished late in round 2...

Miller vs. Walker
Juliana Miller, DEC
Taking tapology underdogs in 3 of the 4 WMMA fights on this card.... how crazy is it that this card a 1/3 of the card is chick fights.. gunna be a funky night.

Lipski vs. Cachoeira
Ariane Lipski, SUB, R2
Priscila catch-a-beating catches another beating.

Oleksiejczuk vs. Alvey
Michał Oleksiejczuk, TKO, R1
Sam Alvey's last ride...

McKinney vs. Gonzalez
Terrance McKinney, TKO, R1
T Wrecks smokes the Ghost Pepper.

Witt vs. Quinlan
Josh Quinlan, TKO, R1
Quinlan is my mom's parents last name... Josh should steamroll here, under 2:30 of the 1st.

McKenna vs. Granger
Miranda Granger, DEC
10 inch reach is gunna be the difference... Cory couldn't even outstrike Elise Reed of all people.

McKinney vs. Gonzalez
Terrance McKinney, TKO, R1
last I checked McKinney by KO/TKO was +160 ..... just sayin

Santos vs. Hill
Jamahal Hill, TKO, R1
Can’t trust Santos anymore. Will take hill under -300 all day.

Luque vs. Neal
Vicente Luque, DEC
Should be a fun fight. Luque is the better overall fighter. Won’t touch this fight.

Pauga vs. Usman
Zac Pauga, TKO, R2
Usman is just not that good. -230 is good odds for Pauga.

Sakai vs. Spivak
Sergey Spivak, TKO, R1
EZ pick

Lipski vs. Cachoeira
Ariane Lipski, DEC
Close fight. Should go to a DEC.

McKinney vs. Gonzalez
Terrance McKinney, TKO, R2
-900 is ridiculous. T.Wrecks may gas out again. Let’s see if he has cardio issues. I think he gets the win in the 1st, but +600 has value here. Fight not going the distance also has value here.

Sato vs. Battle
Bryan Battle, DEC
Better grappling and cardio wins this fight

Witt vs. Quinlan
Josh Quinlan, TKO, R1
Possible value on Witt here by DEC

McKenna vs. Granger
Cory McKenna, DEC
Another close fight. Pick the decision.

Bueno Silva vs. Egger
Stephanie Egger, DEC
Close fight. Pick the decision.