UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Ariane Lipski vs Priscilla Cachoeira 
Ariane Lipski, DEC 
Lipski has a number of advantages here being much more technical, slicker on the mat with her jiu jitsu and having a 2 inch reach advantage to work with. If she uses good fight IQ and doesn't decide to get in a brawl in this fight then she will win it easily enough. There is a chance here that Lipski could get a submission but I don't think Cachoeira will under estimate her opponent like she did with Robertson and paid the price for it.. I believe she has learned a good lesson from that but will still lose a 30-27 decision to Lipski in this fight.

* Edited at 08.03.2022, 5:40 AM ET *

I can't believe my eyes. The Sato odds got even longer today. I'm going to get 3.00 or more on Sato by Friday at this rate. It's MMA and anything can happen but honestly... you think Bryan Battle doesn't get mopped by Sato every day of the week you are C.A.S.U.A.L - you've got a legit professional with legit professional wins vs a guy who won a reality show fighting regional jobbers. This fight is going to look more ******** than Turcios vs Zahabi.

Bryan seems like a great dude but he has neither skill or ability to hang in a global tier promotion. He is the antithesis of athletic.

I've always thought Brian Badonde was a poor fighter, Gore was the best in that house and he's been shocking in the UFC. With a nickname like pooh bear he's never going to make it big either 

In 2019 Bryan was getting arm barred by regional prelim fodder inside a minute. Sato was beating Ben Saunders. 6 years ago Bryan Battle hadn't even heard of MMA, Sato was on the main card of Pancrase in line for a title. And that's before you even consider this dude has never competed at 170lbs before, why is he so desperate to cut 15 extra lbs when he clearly has the frame of a middle weight? It's pretty sus and I think tacit acknowledgement from his camp that he's not good enough to compete with top tier fighters at his actual weight class. He's way out of his depth at this level.

Battle is not an athlete anymore if you actually studied up on the matrix you’d know this he’s totally gonna look worse than that 135er Ricky Turcios remember to always listen to the MMA E.X.P.E.R.T.S you damn casuals

https://www.delinquentmma.com/post/ufc-santos-vs-hill-betting-guide

Max bet battle then 🤣

I wanna see you homeless

Augusto Sakai vs Sergey Spivak
Sergey Spivak, TKO, R2
After the Overeem fight, Sakai looks worried doesn't look confident anymore when throwing his shots or committing to anything in there. His last 3 fights he has faced very good strikers who have big power, in this match up he may not need to worry about a lot of power because Spivak's striking isn't at the highest level. His grappling though with his ground and pound impresses me a lot also threatens for submissions too. I believe this will cause a big problem for Sakai causing him to gas out close to the end of the 2nd round and getting finished once again because of it.

* Edited at 08.03.2022, 11:49 AM ET *

If I don't want to bet on Sato but I don't want to bet on Battle then what should I do? Guys please help me out here.

Go for a draw 😂😂

I would not plan to bet either till weigh ins just me.

I don't think spivak is good Sakai got this

* Edited at 08.03.2022, 3:10 PM ET *

I think Sato has a decent shot of winning but I don't think Battle being the favorite is un-justified. He's definitely a raw prospect and someone you have to watch fight to fight to see if he's adding wrinkles to his game. I definitely liked what I saw in his last fight. Tresean Gore isn't good by UFC standards but that doesn't mean it wasn't a good win for Battle. He got cracked a few times in that fight, remain composed, landed in volume, sprinkled in some takedowns and got the win. One of the shots he took swelled his eye shut fairly early. I like seeing a fighter get through that kind of adversity and win. I don't care who it's against. A fight is a fight. 

I definitely think the votes are a little skewed towards Battle but I understand it. He's just got more paths to victory. Sato will have to finish him, which I think he's definitely got a better than 14% chance of doing. Battle could simply gas and get cold ****ed. But Sato by decision seems highly unlikely unless he himself has gotten better in his time off. Betting odds also seem a tad skewed towards Battle but again, I get it. 

Sato probably only looks like a solid dog because this a weaker card. I wouldn't chase this one personally. 

I always thought Kamaru Usman was putting on a persona in the way he tries to be cool and dramatic in the way he talks but after watching his brother on TUF I can see it's a family trait lol.

Lipski vs. Cachoeira
Priscila Cachoeira, DEC
Source dissagres

Sato vs. Battle
Bryan Battle, DEC
Source dissagrees

Witt vs. Quinlan
Jason Witt, DEC
Source dissagress

I gotta do a little more study of Quinlan first but I like those picks. 

I think it was Rusty who said it a few pages back, but when I think of Mo Usman I just see his fight in Bellator where he looked like a fish out of water. To be fair, I think Brandon Sayles is actually a pretty good heavyweight for an inexperienced (in MMA) 41 year old but Mo looked like dog **** in that fight. When I tell you I saw absolutely nothing that showed me he belonged in their with Sayles, I saw nada.

Granted I haven't watched any of his fights since so maybe he's made some adjustments. His fight is the one fight this week I keep telling myself I really gotta think about hard and not just go off the one bad performance I've seen from him prior. Gotta be able to pick up something here and there if Kamaru is your brother, right?