UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

And no cap, I think this card is the best for betting this whole year.

and this weekend with Bellator/LFA/RIZIN/OKTAGON as well I guarantee that I am going to clear a fortune

I agree, for an Apex card this is pretty decent

Ribas vs. Namajunas
Rose Namajunas, TKO, R4
How tf are you supposed to trust Namajunas after those performances? The way she's coached they make it look like Rose's mindset is the only thing they need focus on to get her back on track. Mindset is important but what about fighting? You can have that "best in the world" mindset but when your in that octagon and do nothing, comeback to your corner and your corner is a bunch of yesmen. That's actually terrifying for such a great fighter, this fight could very well be downfall of Namajunas OR a way to get back on track. She's very talented and fun to watch I might add (not including you know what fight). Her footwork is elite and her standup overall is great. And if we see a Rose who actually takes those two loses into accountability and learns from them, without putting that 100% focus only on the mindset, this could be very good for her. Because Ribas is a winnable fight. In standup Rose is superior, Ribas striking isn't that good, however Ribas is an absolute dog with volume and if she chooses to wrestle it's her best chance. Other concerns for Ribas is that she hasn't been tested in a 5 rounder before and most importantly the competition jump is gigantic. Rose has fought best women in the world. Ribas best wins are against mid level fighters. I can't trust Namajunas 100% but she should get this. Oh, and f*ck thst groomer Pat Barry.

Quarantillo vs. Zalal
Billy Quarantillo, DEC
Not the best circumstances but well Zalal's back into the UFC. He won't beat BillyQ on short notice but maybe they don't cut him and throw him back to the regional scene afterwards

Rendon vs. Zheleznyakova
Darya Zheleznyakova, DEC
What a ****fiesta was that Vidal fight. To not beat Rendon Darya has to be beyond horrible. This is the easiest fight you can get for your debut.

Usman vs. Parkin
Mohammed Usman, DEC
USADAs worst nightmare, steroids his way into victory yet again.

* Edited at 03.17.2024, 9:34 AM ET *

Future star for whoever takes the Talbott-Saaiman fight (honestly maybe loser still too). Gonna be a dogfight but I think Cam takes it, been in there with the better comp, think he has the grappling edge and striking is close, best fight on the card for me

@Mothswords 

@Mothswords 

Pajuelo's cardio is unlimited, he is a long-distance runner in MMA and his boxing is better than Padilla's, if the fight starts from the first round with a high pace, Padilla will not be able to stand up, Pajuelo has a lot of volume with his hands (ex boxer) and the wild cardio accompanies him and he will win this fight

Rendon vs. Zheleznyakova
Darya Zheleznyakova, DEC
Still have 0 clue as to why rendon was signed. I cba to watch her last fight because it was trash but I know she has decent skills everywhere but is harmless and old. Dariya has powerful standup so I expect her to win the striking exchanges or at least have the more impactful shots. Her loss to Dixon was quite concerning; she beat the **** out of Dixon, seemed to gas out after 2 minutes, and then looked clueless on the mat. I know her grappling is better than that, but it was just such a bad look to see. I think she can beat Mexican grandma and maybe finish her but it’s wmma so who the **** knows 

Severino vs. Lima
André Lima, DEC
One of the best fights on the card, I don’t like they’re matching two young prospects together but both are young so it’s whatever; winner gets a big push and loser gets a freebie next fight. Going back on tape I’m not as impressed with severing; the kid is still a stud but he’s a lot greener than I remember. He has nukes in his hands but he gets pretty wild & throws a lot of his strikes looping and wide. Lima comes from a KB background and his striking is nasty. The big difference for me is how lima sets everything up; everything he throws is tight & powerful, and he sets all his strikes up with feints where severino wants to get in your face and brawl. Lima’s tdd looks amazing for someone who has just transitioned to mma, but it’s still not perfect. His hips are very good and he has shown good awareness but I do worry about him getting subbed if this hits the mat; severino is nasty on the ground. I don’t like how severino will give up position to attack subs but, his submission game is great. Close fight but I think Lima keeps this standing, and he has a pretty big advantage standing. I also know these two have beef between their gyms, so I’m expecting a war here

Usman vs. Parkin
Mohammed Usman, DEC
As much as I hate Usman I think his meme winstreak continues here. Striking is pretty even as both have terrible defense and are just bad strikers. Every time Usman gets hit cleanly it looks like he’s one punch from going unconcious, where Parkin is just a heavy bag. I think I favor Usman due to power & parkins lack thereof, but I could also see Parkin just spamming leg kicks and evening the playing field. The grappling is where this gets really difficult; Usman has no wrestling at all & just uses his strength to muscle you down. Parkin isn’t much better but he is at least training with good grapplers. If he gets Usman down I have a feeling Usman will not get back up. Not confident at all but Usman is one of those guys who looks trash on tape & then continues to find ways to win fights. It was also really alarming to me that Parkin was losing striking exchanges to Caio machado of all people

* Edited at 03.17.2024, 12:04 PM ET *

|JudgeName  |NumberOfSplitDecisions  |FightsScored
| Sal D'amato  | 181  | 913
| Chris Lee  | 122  | 577
| Derek Cleary  | 118  | 582
| Junichiro Kamijo  | 74  | 382
| Tony Weeks  | 72  | 368
| Mike Bell  | 72  | 377
| Eric Colon  | 62  | 278
| Marcos Rosales  | 59  | 237
| Doug Crosby  | 56  | 276
| Glenn Trowbridge  | 47  | 240
| Dave Hagen  | 43  | 184
| Adalaide Byrd  | 42  | 226
| Cecil Peoples  | 40  | 165
| Howard Hughes  | 34  | 148
| Ron McCarthy  | 34  | 180
| Cardo Urso  | 32  | 124
| Ben Cartlidge  | 31  | 165
| Jeff Mullen  | 29  | 158
| Mark Collett  | 27  | 150
| Richard Bertrand  | 26  | 125
| Nelson Hamilton  | 26  | 133
| Rick Winter  | 25  | 111
| Lester Griffin  | 23  | 86
| Patricia Morse-Jarman  | 22  | 112
| Paul Sutherland  | 20  | 104


***Judges involved in at least 20 split decisions scorecards***

Ramos vs. Erosa
Ricardo Ramos, TKO, R2
Ramos is the 145 jake Matthews; young but been in the ufc forever, always dominates lesser comp, and ****s the bed hard against anyone top 25 or higher. His last fight was honestly quite embarrassing but I think he will look better here. Erosa is the definition of a glass cannon, he can beat anyone and also lose to anyone. This is because erosa has never changed his style; he plods forward looking to brawl every fight and doesn’t care if you chin him. This style has been very effective for erosa but I think sadly his chin is starting to fade. It’s never been great but once you reach 9 ko losses it really makes you question erosa’s durability. Now, Ramos is not known as a ko guy but he has decent striking and I really think anyone can find that chin. Weirdly enough, I think that spinning elbow is going to be there all day for Ramos, and I really wouldn’t be shocked if he lands it. I think he will need a ko thought because I don’t see him winning minutes out striking erosa. Then again, this totally seems like a fight where erosa pulls something out of his ass

Johns vs. Gibson
Cody Gibson, TKO, R1
I think Gibson is very underrated. His main flaw is cardio but in those 8-9 minutes of cardio he is really good. Gibson is a huge bw and has really slick boxing. He fights behind a sharp jab and throws lots of combinations while pushing a crazy pace. The caveat with this style is that he only can fight for about 8-9 minutes and then death gasses hard. He is very tough but becomes a punching bag in round 3 and the last min of round 2 (why he loses most of his fights). However, I actually think Gibson stands a good chance of winning here; that pace he sets is a nightmare style for johns. Johns falls apart when you pressure him; he can’t fight off of the back foot and his cardio declines rapidly when he isn’t pushing the pace. Even in his last fight he was slowing down badly, but Argueta didn’t have the striking acumen to get him out of there. Johns also doesn’t react well to being hit and I think Gibsons reach and boxing pressure is going to give him hell. If Gibson doesn’t finish him, it will be interesting to see if Johns has enough gas to win the second round back in the last minute. I doubt he finishes Cody either so he will need to dominate the last 6-7 minutes to take this. I don’t like betting on fighters who have a time limit to win, but I really like gibsons chances early in this fight

Nguyen vs. Errens
Steven Nguyen, DEC
I know jrey hypes this guy as a phenom but errens just doesn’t have what it takes to compete in the ufc. Gomis was a tough out but against Choi he did everything wrong. The one moment of success he had in the fight (knockdown) he wasted the opportunity by going for a suplex which then wasted all of his gas tank & ended up on bottom. Jarno also doesn’t throw many combos, punches air a lot, and runs into striking exchanges with his chin in the air. Now, Nguyen isn’t exactly a world beater but he is solid. Not a whole lot of nuance to his game, he is a boxer who headhunts. However, it’s not like a puna where he is predictable, Nguyen will mix it up with jabs, hooks, straights, etc. he has decent power but is content to just ride out decisions; kind of annoying since he has the ability to ko a lot of people. Jarno does have ko power but even when he’s hurt his opponents, he has no killer instinct so he will let Nguyen back into the fight. I think nguyens output and pace is going to give Jarno a lot of issues and he should win comfortably

Have to wonder where Edmen is at mentally for this fight. He's only 26 but his four losses have all been beatings. And at this point his cardio doesn't seem like a fixable issue.

Quarantillo vs. Zalal
Billy Quarantillo, DEC
Watched zalal eat his way back but a horrible comeback debut

Ribas vs. Namajunas
Rose Namajunas, TKO, R2
Rose has been in terrible form recently but I think this is a very good matchup for her. Ribas will force her to fight and is so chinny. Rose is actually a good striker and I think she can find the chin here. Ribas is very effective with her judo throws but I think rose's grappling is good enough to get back up, or end up in top control. I really think this stays tsdnaing and rose finds the chin. Dare I say this could actually be entertaining if rose shows up? Ribas generally puts on fun fights and we know when rose is on her A game she's one of the most exciting females. Not holding high hopes for this main event but again, if rose shows up we may be in for a great performance

Williams vs. Tafa
Justin Tafa, TKO, R1
No idea why tafa is a big dog here. Williams will enact the same gameplan de lima was going to do, but he lacks the striking, explosiveness, power, and top control of de lima. His wrestling consists of football tackles & while I imagine he can get tafa down, Williams does nothing with his control and he has struggled to hold down everyone hes fought (including guys much worse than tafa). His cardio is also terrible, he starts wheezing heavy after 5 minutes. He will fight through it but tafa is not going to let him off the hook. On the feet tafa is simply the better fighter and will ko him

Shahbazyan vs. Dobson
Edmen Shahbazyan, TKO, R1
could 100% see this going the distance because Dobson is not bad at all & edmen is just a complete fraud. I do think he has been given some very difficult matchups but that performance against dalcha was not mind blowing. Dobson is talented but very gun-shy, I doubt he is going to do anything to push the pace on edmenm & his wrestling isn't good enough to hold him down. He should allow edmen to set the pace & eden is just simply the better striker of the two. Should be an easy ko but knowing edmen he will underperform and take this to the distance

Talbott vs. Saaiman
Payton Talbott, DEC
Much like with Severino vs lima, I really hate the ufc is matching these two up; especially seaman since he will be on an L streak if he loses here. However, this is a guaranteed FOTN; neither guy backs down from a fight and both are insanely aggressive strikers. I don't like how hittable Talbot is but he has an iron chin and shows 0 respect to anyone; he tanks the damage and uses his absurd pace and athleticism to break his opponents. he is not going to break saaiman but I do think the constant aggression will give him issues. We saw on dwcs saaiman struggled with the dynamic attack of JWK early, but took over as JWK faded. Talbott isn't as dynamic but he does bring that aggressive, in-your-face pace that JWK was early. Talbott also has a big side advantage which I think will give saaiman and his t rex arms issues. saaiman has an unorthodox striking style but it works very well for him. I definitely think his counter striking is going to be there all day and he might even hurt talbott. This is a very close fight but I will go talbott

Quarantillo vs. Zalal
Billy Quarantillo, DEC
Billy should win but the odds on this fight are very wide. I like nilly a lot but he is an overachiever, definitely a lot more beatable than he looks. That being said, Zalal's main issue is that hes too content to just ride out the round; he won't ever really push the action (although he finally did in his last ufc fight) and just kind of lets his opponents pick the pace. The striking level of the two is probably around the same level but halal doesnt have much output while billy is an output machine. I think the best path to victory for Zalal is takedowns. Billy is not a good wrestler and you can control him relatively easily. However, I don't see him being able to wet blanket effectively for 15 minutes. Zalal has amazing cardio so I don't imagine billy will be able to gas him out like he does his other opponents. Despite this, I don't think Zalal is going to do enough on the feet to combat the volume billy puts out. Wouldn't be entirely shocked by an upset but I think Zalal has an uphill battle in front of him

Pajuelo vs. Padilla
Fernando Padilla, TKO, R3
This should be a war but both very low level. The only good thing I can say about Padilla is that hes a huge featherweight and hits decently hard. I actually thought he beat nelson on second watch but it was still an alarming performance nonetheless; he should've easily koed that guy. Pajeulo is a brawler but he just walks forward tanking any damage. What really stood out to me is his lack of defense, he doesn't move his head at all and more alarmingly, doesnt know what a leg kick is. He has an insane chin but he gets rocked a lot in the fights that ive seen. I think Padilla is slightly more technical and having the long reach will help a lot during boxing exchanges. Could definitely see Padilla bottling this but I really don't think pajeulo is that good

Ogden vs. Holobaugh
Kurt Holobaugh, SUB, R2
Ogden is the definition of "keep it simple stupid". His entire game can be broken down as such: jab, low kick, td feint, and then riding out top control if he gets said td. He isn't bad but he is way too basic for my liking. Holobaugh is a lot better than I remembered on tape. He is far from a technical striker but he gets right in your face and throws at a high clip. I think this style is going to give ogden a lot of issues. for one, he doesnt have the power on the feet to get holobaugh's respect, and hes also not going to be able to sit back and pick him apart since holobaugh will be walking him down and forcing him to fight. The easiest path to victory for ogden is grappling. It's so easy to take Kurt down and he will spend all of his grappling time fishing for subs off of his back. However, Kurt's guard is actually quite good; he is very crafty and always able to find some sort of sub or sweep. Ogden is a pretty solid grappler himself but he is prone to making mistakes and I think holobaugh is going to pressure him into panic wrestling, and then making a mistake not he ground and getting subbed.

The only two fights that are making me hyped for this card (and a lot of other people as well it seems) areTalbot vs Saaimanand Severino vs Lima. Both are going to be crazy fights to watch.

I am going with Saaiman in a very close fight where his wrestling helps him edges it out in a decision and Lima in a crazy entertaining striking war that lasts two rounds at most. 

* Edited at 03.17.2024, 4:35 PM ET *

Ramos vs Erosa & Johns vs. Gibson have potencial to be bangers

My biggest worry with Ribas is that she in my opinion the most chinny women fighter. I seen her knock out multiple times now and got dropped even more, how often do you see women fighter knock out. Rose should knock out Ribas if she has anything left

It’s a shame tho about Ribas, I think Ribas has everything else to be a championship level fighter, just don’t have the chin

Alot of interesting fights but I think Main Event Is bad because Namajunas had very bad performances and Amanda Ribas also have alot of decisions and some split decision I think it will not be entertaining Main Event and there is few fights on the card that will be interesting but I don't like this card also Mohammad Usman can be good underdog pick considering Mick Parkins is in on kind of Short Notice and they both are not known for gas tank so Mick Parkin will probably gas out if he doesn't KO Usman in R1

@AyyLmaonnaise 

Very Good pick only one I think will not come through is Holobaugh even tho he won the Ultimate Fighter and he showed that he has a dawg in him I think he is very old and even tho Trey Ogden is simple guy I think his grappling will do the job and that he will KO/TKO Holobaugh with ground and pound in later rounds.I think that only chance for Holobaugh in this fight is on the feet if Ogden takes him down I think he will not be able to get up so my pick for this fight is Ogden by KO/TKO in R3

Fun fact: 

Sal and Derek Cleary almost never agree with each other during close fights. If you see those two as judges for what you think will be a close fight, almost guaranteed it'll be a split.

Ribas vs. Namajunas
Rose Namajunas, DEC
It's Ribas first 5x5 bout, whereas Namajunas has had many 5x5 bouts. Both girls are particularly strawweight but this is a flyweight bout and Namajunas has more success with a record of 9-4. Ribas is 7-3 but she's not fighting champions like her opponent. Yet, Ribas is ahead by a little in the rankings so I'm guessing she puts up a good fight to go the distance. Otherwise Namajunas submission is also a try.

* Edited at 03.17.2024, 8:11 PM ET *

Shahbazyan vs. Dobson
Edmen Shahbazyan, DEC
This one seems really well matched. I see both guys as around even in striking - both throw pretty basic combinations and dont have great defense. They also both struggle with defending wrestling/TD's as shown by Edmen's losses to Hernandez/Imavov and AJ's loss to Malkoun. Luckily for both, I think they'll opt to keep it standing for the most part. Both of these guys were mopping the floor with lower level competition but have slowed down as they faced UFC level opponents. I'll slightly lean toward Shahbazyan to win a decision because although he's been getting finished in his losses, he's gone against much better competition in the UFC.

weird card in my opinion

Usman Decision 
i have a weird feeling Usmans mass plays a factor here parkin is pretty soy 

Andre Lima Knockout
idk honestly i’m just picking the Favorite 

Nguyen decision 
Jarno has close fights but loses 

Gibson Knockout
Gibson is lengthy and throws flying knees and crazy **** and has a pretty decent jiu jitsu game as well i kind of think miles johns is a guy who plays it safe and i feel like the fights like this always end in wild ko 

Ramos Knockout 
Erosa is old and chinny 

Holobaugh knockout 
i don’t mind the underdog at all here ogden is very bad on the feet and Kurt can scramble on the mat to keep this one on the feet and ko ogden 

Pajuelo decision 
i personally can’t trust you after kyle Nelson gives you a L

Zalal decision 
i’m thinking zalal wants to make a statement in his comeback fight here billy q is kind of a similar cardio fighter 

Talbott knockout 
we already saw how good cameron is i think Talbott can break saaiman late 

shahbazyan knockout 
Edmen is trash but loses to good level fighters dobson is not on the same level i see a highlight finish 

tafa knockout 
Tafa is a big dude with power karl is going to try and use his speed but get slept heavyweight is that weight class where u just get slept 

Ribas Knockout 
weird thought but rose just isn’t in it anymore and just completely falls off after this ribas can take a punch and bring it back to you i see some kind of slow start and then by round 3-4 some shot puts rose down and ribas just jumps on top and gets the fight to
end