UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Barry is -1500 which is also insane and going to be up there on the biggest ever list. Val and Nunes we're always big favorites but I don't think they ever even got to -1500. Usually topped a little before that. But the two right most books on bestfightodds are already over -2000. And the rest aren't far behind there's still money coming in on Romanov. I guess it's going to depend on which book they use for the "official" closing number but it's really seeming like he's going to take the cake. 

I'm gonna put a little sprinkle on Sherman which should come as no surprise to anyone. Would put a sprinkle on Jackson as well if he met the bar of "being an MMA fighter", which he doesn't

Wright vs. Barriault
Marc-André Barriault, TKO, R2
I'm

Lins and vannata haven’t weighed in yet. I knew lins cut would be bad because he hasn’t gone to lhw in a very long time and I fear vannata is in danger of missing as well

Lando looked like a skeleton Jesus Christ 

Vannata looking like the grim reaper after a late weigh inn, guess I'm leaning this pickem toward Jourdain.

I will say lando moved around fine and seemed energetic but he also looked like he almost died getting to 145 lol

Romanov vs. Sherman
Chase Sherman, TKO, R3
I know Sherman didn't look great in his last performances, but I'm shocked to see the betting odds here. Romanov is a monster for about a round and a half, then if he can't finish his opponent, his cardio and mental toughness are seriously compromised, as we saw in his fight against Espino. For all his flaws, Sherman is generally hard to take down, and is pretty tough himself, so I think he can survive a bloody beating in the first round to come back late in the fight.

Nice no weight misses 

Anyone who think Sherman will win will be wrong. Collier manhandled Sherman and he’s not even close to the level of wrestling romanov is

Sherman has admitted he is not in fight shape and only took the fight for a check. Even he knows he won't beat Romanov. Sherman also said he was planning to go back to BKFC so I doubt he was even grappling as of a week ago. Romanov by finish is guaranteed money.

* Edited at 04.22.2022, 2:20 PM ET *

Romanov will likely absorb fewer than 10 total strikes

I don't ever give any UFC vs UFC fighter more than a 90% chance to win, especially at heavyweight. Got Sherman at +1100. I don't think he's got a chance but I try to stay consistent with these, cashed on "no chance" Dobson against Agapova so I can miss on all future impossibilities for a few years to come and be good.

julio arce vibes from vannata

Lemos vs. Andrade
Jéssica Andrade, TKO, R1
Angela Hill was able to rock Lemos multiple times in their fight. She was also able to pressure her most of the fight. Power and pressure are the bread and butter of Andrade's game. Lemos was able to survive Hill and get a controversial decision. Andrade won't leave this in the judge's hands and puts her out in the first or second round.

Guida vs. Puelles
Claudio Puelles, DEC
This is a tough fight to call. The fan in me wants to side with the legend Guida, but I'm going with Puelles because he's young and has more paths to victory in my opinion. Guida could use his wrestling to defend the takedown and keep the fight standing where he could win with pressure and volume. Puelles could win by submission, just use his top game to hold Guida down like he did Leavitt, or possibly even use that speed and youth to put Guida out on the feet. 40 year old Santos had Guida in trouble before fatigue set it and Guida got the finish. Puelles won't fatigue as quickly.

Barber vs. De La Rosa
Montana De La Rosa, DEC
De La Rosa uses her wrestling to take the first two rounds. Barber comes on strong late like she always does but loses a 29-28 decision. If Barber can find that extra gear sometime in the second she could take this fight.

Romanov vs. Sherman
Alexandr Romanov, SUB, R1
Romanov by early finish. He's gonna take him to suplex city then put him to sleep via choke or ground and pound.

Jourdain vs. Vannata
Lando Vannata, DEC
Likely your FOTN with Kape and Sumudaerji off of the card. Both have exciting styles and solid striking. Jourdain's takedown defense is ugly though and if Vannata decides to mix in some takedowns he should be able to win over the judges in a close decision.

Wright vs. Barriault
Jordan Wright, TKO, R1
A glass cannon vs a cardio machine. Give me the glass cannon. I don't see this going past the second round. Wright does good work in the clinch and Barriault has been hurt and KO'ed in the clinch in the past in multiple fights.

Grant vs. Khandozhko
Sergey Khandozhko, DEC
Don't know much about Sergey but Dwight Grant is on the wrong side of 35 and underwhelming. If Sergey can keep from being KO'ed he should be able to outpoint Grant for a decision win.

Pedro vs. Villanueva
Tyson Pedro, TKO, R1
Pedro's knee issues and 3 years off would worry me if he wasn't fighting a bottom of the barrel fighter in Ike. This is basically a freebie for Pedro who was one of the hottest prospects before his injury.

Qileng vs. Else
Aori Qileng, DEC
Don't know much about either fighter but Auriqileng put up a really good fight against a quality opponent in Jeff Molina before gassing in the 3rd. Cameron Else was completely outclassed by Kyler Phillips which is nothing to be ashamed of. Banking on the move up to 135 helping Auriquileng's gas tank as he eaks out a close decision win.

Parsons vs. Elder
Preston Parsons, SUB, R1
Parsons is a big welterweight and Elder is moving up from lightweight. Parsons should have the size advantage to be able to get this fight to the mat where he wants it and get the finish. I also wasn't very impressed with Elder's striking. He eats a lot of shots so Parsons could get him to the ground by knockdown

Prachnio vs. Lins
Marcin Prachnio, TKO, R2
Who... cares? Siding with Prachnio because making a cut back down to 205 at 36 years old is a red flag for Lins' chin

Barry vs. Jackson
Dean Barry, TKO, R1
Why is Mike Jackson even in the UFC??? Dean Barry by murder

* Edited at 04.22.2022, 3:19 PM ET *

Unpopular opinion: Andrade finishes Lemos faster than Romanov finishes Sherman

-Berry by rd 1 KO. Jackson is a 🥫
-Prachnio rd 3 KO. Side kicks and superior cardio grind Lins up
-Parsons/Elder looks like a good scrap. I bet Parsons by decision or sub but I’ve got Elder in a parlay. Kid has got some TNT in those hands. 
-Took Else ML and inside the distance. Needs to avoid the knees from Aori. Hoping Else can follow an overhand right into a takedown or two
-I’ve got Pedro and I bet the u1.5
-Grant by decision. I like his length here but worried about his high chin. Both of these men are hittable. Looking for a banger here
-Picked Barriault on here but only bet fgtd-no. Decent chance the BH Ninja catches him flush
-Vannata decision but w/ a sprinkle on Jourdain in round 3. This is Vannata’s 2nd go, I think, down at 145 and it is my belief that he scores some takedowns off the many high kicks Jourdain will attempt
-Romanov rd 1 and u1.5. I’ve got all these u/o in a round robin parlay
-Barber by decision. O2.5. De La Rosa sprinkled into the dawgs parlay because girls
-Guida decision w/ a hedge on a Puelles rd 3 sub
-In the Handsome Lady Main Event™️, I’m taking an Andrade KO. Hopefully, before halfway in the 3rd because I’m chasing that plus$ girl-under 2.5. 
Best of luck

Jordan Wright vs Marc-Andre Barriault 

Barriault KO RD 1 

I get the concerns about Marc’s chin going into this, but I cant bring myself to ever side with jordan wright; I just cant do it. Barriault is no world beater, but skill for skill i think hes a better fighter than jordan wright by a significant margin. However, Hes returning very quickly after getting koed (pretty badly i might add) for the first time in his career. Now, wright may be terrible, but hes pretty much just first round ko or bust. Hes got solid power and, surprisingly, has been very accurate with his strikes, but his wins have also been against dog**** competition. He seems to have goo standup, but he crumbles against better guys and power punches. Now, barriault isnt a power puncher at all, but his whole style is take a punch to give a punch and out cardio in ugly brawls. Now, normally this is ok but again, he got badly koed not too long ago. However, wright does not like being hit, nor does he like pressure. Barriault is a slow starter, but, if he keeps the pressure, wright will eventually crumble. Just see the fluffy hernandez fight, he walked wright down and koed him within the first minute. I do fear marc’s chin but as long as he either applies pressure or leaves the first round i think he will be fine. I just cant trust wright with his bad chin or poor stirking defense. 

Dwight Grant vs Sergey Kzanodzko 

Kzanodzko DEC 

This is one of the few fights that i dont think will be fun. Both guys are slow and jut kind of boring fighters overall. I actually was favoring grant, but i just cant side with him after tape study. Hes got a long frame for the division and actually carries solid power, but hes very hesitant to let his hands go. When he does, he can crack but most of the time hes not really doing anything. Grant also has solid tdd but if you do take him down hes not that great at getting back up. However, my main reason for fading him is because he should arguably be on a 4 fight L streak. Like I said earlier, he just doesnt throw volume and in turn, he makes fights very close and greasy when they really dont need to be. I also think he lost to sekulic (a loss that has aged terribly) and to jouban. Factor in that hes 37 and i really dont like his chances. I didnt really watch tape on sergey because i find him pretty boring, but he switched camps to xtreme couture and has more experience, is younger, and has fought better competition. I dont like that he hasnt fought since 2019 but hes young so it shouldnt be too bad. 

Tyson Pedro vs Ike Villanueva 

Pedro SUB RD 1 

Heres another weird one. I like pedro but he was pushed very fast by the ufc. I also dont really like how he hasnt fought since 2018 and has been sidelined by injuries, but, hes only 30 so i have hopes hes improved. Hes also getting somewhat of a freebie against villanueva here. Ike is one of the worst active fighters on the roster (a theme of this card). His style consists of brawling trying to get you out of there before he gets you out of there. He has decent power but no real technique. He doesnt eat damage very well and has no stirking defnese so if you work him enough he will crack. However, I dont really think pedro will ko him. Its defintiy possible, but i think he will win through his grappling. We havent seen ike face a grappler (hecne why hes getting koed so much) but he has no grappling. If pedro lands a td, I see him easily subbing ike. It would be smart for him to grapple anyways because i really dont like pedro on the feet. Despite having 6 black belts and a very well rounded game, Pedro is kind of a bad striker. Hes low volume and shown to be pretty hittable in the past. I really dont like this against someone with power like ike, but, pedro has a 7 inch reach advantage so he should be fine. Hes also low volume, but he has good power and is very accurate (62% striking accuracy).  I also have questions about pedro’s gas tank but again, its ike so this fight shouldnt leave the first. 

Aoriqileng vs Cameron Else 

Aoriqileng KO RD 2 

I reallllllly like aoriqileng to get a finish here. Despite being 0-2 in the ufc, I really think aori has so much more to offer. Hes also in a very interesting position because for once, hes fighting a guy whos fought worse competition than he has. Else has a veyr bad record against some total cans. Not only that, but i thought he was young, it turns out hes 34 years old. Watching his tape, else is pretty terrible. He just brawls on the feet, granted hes got some solid power, but hes very hittable and also has only one round of gas. His tdd looks pretty bad and hes not very good on the ground but he does have a decent anaconda choke. His wrestling is pretty bad because ive seen him make many mistakes and even reverse tds onto himself. I mentioned his gas tank earlier, and holy **** is it bad. I dont like aori’s very much either but hes at least going up a class and even though he gasses, he at least isnt toast at the end of every decision. Else has literally one round of gas before giving up. In many of his fights, ive seen him either come clsoe to a finish, or get taken and held down by his opponent and then just shell up and quit in the second. In his fight against phillips (granted phillips is a tough ass fight on short notice but still), else didnt look terrible but clearly got beaten. He got taken down at the end of the round and got hit with a solid elbow (pretty clean shot but nothing crazy in terms of power) and he instantly turtles up for the end of the round. Then he got to his corner and looked fine, but easily gave up a second take down and gave his back up and basically quit. Aori on the other hand impresses me. Despite having a 0-2 record, a bad gas tank, and poor striking defense, i am a fan of him. He is very high volume and will zombie walk you down (nightmare for else because of his gas tank) for 3 rounds straight. He can also wrestle and as long as hes the one on offense, I think aori will have success on the ground. While both guys have bad tdd, I favor aori’s wrestling background over cam’s subpar wrestling. Overall, I think aori’s pressure will be too much for else, who i do not think is close to ufc level.

Preston Parsons vs Evan Elder 

Parsons SUB RD 1 

This is a really tough one for me to call. I already thought preston was gonna upset cosce, but now hes fighting elder who i think is a decent prospect. Its also super hard to call because both guys have a very well rounded game. On the feet, I like what I see from both, but i think elder is the better striker. Parsons uses his striking more when hes up close and hes got a more muay thai based game. He has good combinations to the body and the head and uses a lot of good knees and sharp elbows in the clinch. He actually was able to land some solid shots on d rod for as long as that fight went on. However, his striking defense is what cost him, and its also a bit of a concern with me. In the d rod fight, he did not show great defense and ended up taking a counter to the eye, which compromised him and subsequently cost him the fight. Now, I will cut him some slack because d rod on short notice is an absolute beast and he also landed some solid shots but, the striking defnese is a little concerning. For elder, ive been very impressed with his striking improvements. You can see straining at sanford has helped him a lot. Hes mixed feints and level changes into his overall game and also throws lots of kicks and other attacks. One thing he did that was super impressive to me is in his most recent fight where he faked moving to the right, landed a bakchand, and chained it into a takedown. On the ground, I have to give the advantage to parsons because hes finished all his wins by sub and got got some solid overall wrestling, however, I like elders wrestling ability more. Much like when hes on the feet, ive seen parsons taken down or reversed so i cant always trust his ability to get things done defensively. Elder has some good wrestling, favoring the crucifix position and also has gotten some nice armlocks from that position. Overall, its a very close fight but i like parsons here just because its short notice and elder is also a LW while parsons is a WW. I also favor parsons competition by a ton. However, i really like elder as a prospect so it wouldnt surprise me if he won this. 

Marcin Prachnio vs Phillipe Lins 

Prachnio KO RD 2 

This is actually a very difficult fight to pick. Prachnio may be the most frustrating fighter ever, because he has a glass chin and still has not learned proper striking defense and hes fighting phillipe lins whos going back to 205 for the first time since 2015 and hasnt fought in 2 years. Prachnio isnt a terrible fighter, but as i mentioned, he has no striking defense. He constantly leaves himself open when throwing leg kicks and doesnt have good head movement. However, he is an offensive based fighter; he throws tons of volume and works the legs, body, and head very well. He has a karate background and you can see that through his striking. He seems to have made some improvements to his stirking defense, but even in the fights hes winning, hes still getting hurt. However, i think he will manage to avoid the ko threat for the most part (i hope) because lins does not hit very hard. Hes got very fast hand speed so he could clip prahcnio but for the most part his striking isnt that impressive. Lins is low volume for the most part but lets go in flurries once he finds openings. Part of the reason lins was so successful at HW is because he was just a LHW who didnt cut weight, allowing him to move faster and have a better gas tank, however, in the boser fight, we saw him struggle with the speed of boser (who is a smaller HW known for his speed) and i dont think he will be able to impose his speed as well in the lower weight class, especially not against an aggressive, volume striker. It will be interesting to see how lins cardio holds up because this has been his first time cutting to 205 in 7 years. Similarly, he is older and hasnt fought in 2 years because hes been pulling out of fights (pulled out of ⅚ of his scheduled fights because of injuries) so hes not as healthy as hes been. Finally, he doesnt have a great chin himself so prachnio could chin him. Either way, someone is getting koed here. 

Dean Barry vs Mike Jackson 

Barry KO RD 1 

I mean what other outcome would you even expect? This is a super low level fight as jackson is basically an amateur. I'm surprised he's even in the ufc still but hes somehow getting a fight. Dean barry is someone im not particularly high on, especially because his competition is horrible, however this is a slam dunk of a fight. Barry at least is an active mma fighter and also has an expansive kickboxing background. Hes got good power and moves around a lot. I think he will pretty much just style on jackson because jackson doesnt really have any striking prowess. I think his game plan is just gonna be to shoot instantly but since he doesnt really have an mma background i dont think he’ll be too successful. Dean barry’s get up game looked ok in his other fights but he did get subbed pretty quickly in his only loss. However, jackson sucks so i dont really think barry has to worry. 

Amanda Lemos vs Jessica Andrade 

Andrade KO RD 2 

Ngl, I really like this main event. Both these chicks hit very hard and love to brawl. However, I think this match is pretty one sided. Lemos is a beast of a prospect but this is a big step up in competition for her. She didn't really beat hill (close fight tho) and now shes gettin the perennial top contender at 115. Andrade has been through some wars and has taken a lot of damage but i still think shes the second best girl in most weight classes. Lemos wins a lot of her fights because shes able to rely on the fact that she used to be a BW, but Andrade has also been at BW before so Lemos isnt going to be as big as she usually is. Lemos may have the power advantage, as she has dropped pretty much everyone shes fought. She fights in a muay thai stance and has crazy power in her hands. Lemos has some grappling as well but most of her fights are on the feet. Adrade does have to be careful because, while she does hit hard, she is also very hittable. Andrade has crazy power as well though so the striking exchanges will certainly be interesting. Andrade has a big experience advantage over Lemos as well, being the former champ and only losing to former or current champs. The grappling exchanges will also be interesting, as andrade has very good wrestling and is also a black belt in bjj. If she decides to wrestle i could see her causing problems for lemos because, while she has a good tdd, she has never fought someone as strong or as good of a wrestler as andrade. Another factor is her gas tank; Lemos has gone the distance before and her gas looks improved for the most part, but her one loss came due to her gassing out. She also has not gone 5 rounds before, while andrade has tons of 5 round experience. Overall, I think Andrade will win but Lemos could make this more competitive than it seems. 

Clay Guida vs Claudio Puelles 

Puelles DEC 

This is the hardest fight to call for me. Ive been switching back and forth all week and i probably will switch before tmrw but I cant come up with a clear winning for this. On the feet, clay is not as good of a striker as i thought. He feints and fakes level changes a lot, but is pretty low volume for the most part. He throws just punches and leg kicks on the feet but hes got ok power. His striking defense is pretty good but he doesnt get sloppy with blocking and it results in him getting hurt sometimes (like against jim miller or leonardo santos). For his wrestling, guida loves to explode and throw guys around to get them to the ground hes got a solid wrestling base and has a bunch of subs, but isnt really a submission threat. For Puelles, I have been very impressed with the changes hes made. Hes only 25 and is on a 4 fight win streak and has looked very improved since going to sanford. His striking has improved tremendously. Hes implemented kicks into his game and his striking has been looking better each fight. Puelles is still low volume (which is a nightmare matchup against guida, who like to fight at a high pace) but im still impressed with the changes. ON the ground, his wrestling isnt great, but he is always looking to improve position and has a deceptiely good ground game. I think clay is the better wrestler but claudio is crafty on the ground. Theres also the fact that puelles is 15 years younger and clay is also not fighting guys younger than 30 (he hasnt since do bronx in 2018. Puelles also looks huge compared to guida. This is a very close fight but im leaning puelles, but i may switch later. 

Maycee Barber vs Montana De la Rosa 

De La Rosa DEC 

Heres a hot take: I do not think maycee is that good and yes, I will keep sleeping. She should be on a 3 fight L streak but here we are. I think a lot of maycee’s success in the ufc has came from her strength. Shes very strong for the division and because of that shes been able to bully smaller girls. I dont think her striking is that great, as we've seen she just shadowboxes most of the time (jokes lol) but when shes up close she has good power. I also dont really trust her ground game as we’ve seen her struggl against grapplers before. Montana is a very bad striker but a good grappler. If it stays on the feet, I actually could see maycee potentially getting a ko, but I think montana will spam takedowns and hold her down. Montana has shown to be pretty suppresive on top and actually has finished most of her fights from subs or gnp. I think if she spams tds the whole fight and tries not to prove a point that shes a better striker, then I see her winning this. 

Alexandr Romanov vs Chase Sherman 

Romanov SUB RD 1 

Romanov is a lock here. Chase sherman is a total can. Im actually shocked they resigned him for this fight but hes basically done as a martial artist. Hes 3-8 through 3 ufc tenures and is just a brawler. He does have a punchers chance on the feet, as romanov is hittable and sherman does have a lot of oks, but, sherman has shown he cant really crack against ufc level guys. I think romanov is overrated for his undefeated record, but hes way better than the other people kicking chase’s ass. Chase doesnt have a good gas tank, and his tdd of 70% is overrated. Romanov is a great wrestler and is always looking for the finish on the ground. I think sherman gets subbed within 2 minutes. The only question is, how fast? 

Lando Vannata vs Charles Jourdain 

Vannata DEC 

Let me preface this by saying i am biased because lando is one of my favorite fighters. However, I think he has a good chance at winning this. NOw, he did look like death on the scales, but he was still energetic and seemed to be moving ok. He also didnt miss weight so thats a plus, it may have just been a big cut for him. However, I still think 145 is the weight class for him. Vannata, like jourdain, has been marred with inconsistency throughout his ufc career. He is a very skilled striker but lost a lot of fights (the ones that werent questionable decisions) because of hia gas tank or getting lazy on the feet. Now, despite these weaknesses, when lando is on, he is ON. Hes one of those guys whos mastered mma striking and can just chain together crazy strikes. Hes also got a god tier chin. I will say, i dont like his reliance on his chin down a weight class and when facing one of the hardest hitters in the division, but lando’s movement and striking combined is a serious problem when hes on. The x factor here could be landos wrestling. He doesnt use it that much, but lando was a d1 wrestler and has some good scramvbles of his own. Jourdain is an absolute beast, but his biggest pitfall is his tdd. Despite being a blakc belt, jourdain is not that great on the ground. Hes lost most of his ufc fights because he gets taken down too many times and racks up ground control. Now i dont really think lando will go in there and wrestle him, but its a legit path to victory for him should be use it. Jourdain is an absolute beast on the feet in his own right; when he enters his zone is striking is just beautiful to watch. He cracks hard and just breaks guys with his body work and volume. He gets hit a lot, buit has great striking defense for the most part. He will have to be careful against lando because lando can crack when he wants to. I think its a risky pick but i think 145 is the class for lando and i think he will win here.