Topic: UFC Fight Night
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
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- Saturday 11.28.2020 at 08:00 PM ET
- U.S. Broadcast: ESPN | Prelims: ESPN+
- Name: UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
- Also Known As: UFC Vegas 15
- Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
- Ownership: Endeavor
- Venue: UFC APEX
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
- Enclosure: Octagon
- TV Announcers: Brendan Fitzgerald, Paul Felder
- Ring Announcer: Joe Martinez
- Post-Fight Interviews: Paul Felder
- TV Ratings: 1.06M avg. viewers
- MMA Bouts: 10
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Promotion Links:
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Event Links:
| Bout | Info | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith defeats Devin Clark via Submission, Triangle Choke | 2:34 Round 1 of 5 Bout Page | |
| Miguel Baeza defeats Takashi Sato via Submission, Arm Triangle Choke | 4:28 Round 2 of 3, 9:28 Total Bout Page | |
| Parker Porter defeats Josh Parisian via Decision, Unanimous | 3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page | |
| Bill Algeo defeats Spike Carlyle via Decision, Unanimous | 3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page | |
| Norma Dumont defeats Ashlee Evans-Smith via Decision, Unanimous | 3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page | |
| Jonathan Pearce defeats Kai Kamaka III via KO/TKO, Ground and Pound | 4:28 Round 2 of 3, 9:28 Total Bout Page | |
| Anderson dos Santos defeats Martin Day via Submission, Guillotine Choke | 4:35 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page | |
| Gina Mazany defeats Rachael Ostovich via KO/TKO, Ground and Pound | 4:10 Round 3 of 3, 14:10 Total Bout Page | |
| Sumudaerji defeats Malcolm Gordon via KO/TKO, Straight Punches | 0:44 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page | |
| Nate Maness defeats Luke Sanders via Submission, Rear Naked Choke | 2:29 Round 2 of 3, 7:29 Total Bout Page |
Responses Page 2
11.19.2020 | 11:16 AM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 1 Perfect, 290 Points | Tied for 971st
Blaydes vs. Lewis
Curtis Blaydes, SUB, R3
Kind of a bad main event, but I guess the name value is there. This is the UFC so anyone should be ready to fight anyone, but this is a gimme fight for Blaydes. Lewis has good power and his cardio is steadily and slowly getting better, and I'll keep an eye out for how low his weight is on the scale before I place any big bets. But I don't see any way Blaydes gets clipped here, and if he does he has a great ******* chin and he can get a body lock and stall or take Lewis down. If Blaydes had shown a volkov/reem level chin then I wouldn't be as confident, but I think it'll take more than one big shot from Lewis to take him out. And really that's all Lewis has after the second round. Blaydes has shown significant improvements in his striking recently (likely from working with the man, the myth, the legend Overeem). But his cardio in the Volkov fight was laughable. But I mean he's fighting someone with probably the worst cardio in the top 10 of heavyweight outside of Ngannou. Blaydes pot shots jabs and body kicks until he feels comfortable enough to grab Lewis and smother him against the cage. I'd rather Lewis wins via a freak KO because he's funner and Blaydes last performance against Volkov really embittered him to me. But if I always bet with my heart I'd screwed.
Moicano vs. Fiziev
Renato Moicano, SUB, R2
Bangkok ready Fiziev looked great in his last fight. But that was a one dimensional fight no matter how you look at it, two KO artists who were competing to see who landed first and ended up kind of stalemating with Fiziev edging out the striking finesse. Fiziev showed good skill in addition to outstanding power and really impressed me. But Moicano has a much higher fight IQ than Diakese and I think it will show in this fight. Moicano has taken down almost every opponent he's faced (even Brian Ortega to his regret) other than Calvin Kattar, Jose Aldo, and the Zombie. So what exclusively top 5 featherweight talent? And he probably didn't take Kattar down just because he was demolishing him on the feet. Moicano when he looks good, looks like a world champion. But man those last two losses are scary, he didn't even manage to land a significant punch on Zombie before he got absolutely starched. Then there was that relatively close fight against Aldo up until it wasn't close at all. So I guess that's what's making people think Fiziev deserves to be the favorite here? But I don't see it, Fiziev for all the hype I hear around him hasn't been able to get the two sub 15 rank UFC fighters out inside the distance. Moicano is definitely the better MMA fighter here if his chin holds. Fiziev will be able to check his leg kicks which will take away one of Moicano's best weapons, but I don't see how Fiziev stops Moicano from taking him down if he wants to. Moicano by submission outside the first round.
Smith vs. Clark
Anthony Smith, SUB, R3
Yikes Anthony Smith's last two fight left something to be desired. I watched him on all his local fights and the dude really earned the name Lionheart. He was a great fighter in the cage (a little undisciplined out of it but hey this is cagefighting not ballet) and I'd never seen him quit on the stool. He may not have quit on the stool yet, but he kind of quit underneath Rakic. I don't know if the damage is accumulating or he just lost that fire after fighting for the title, but he hasn't looked the same recently. Old Anthony, even pre-UFC, would maul Clark like his nickname. At this point, god I don't know. I put a knee-jerk bet on Lionheart at even money because I couldn't resist, but if Clark drags Smith to the ground it could be a long boring fight. Which is ******* weird because I've rolled with Smith and seen him roll with good black belts and he's a legit blackbelt off his back, or he was... I don't know what happened in that Rakic fight but it just looks like the fire is gone.
Baeza vs. Sato
Takashi Sato, TKO, R2
This is an easy bet for me. Takashi Sato at as high as +180 depending on when you caught him? Holy ****, either I'm ******** or other people are. Go watch Baeza's contender fight and tell me you don't see someone with the power Sato has displayed putting him to sleep? Baeza has awful striking defense and while I get that he looks like a world beater when he's playing the hammer, that won't work with someone like Sato. Now Baeza could win if he shows a facet of his game that I haven't seen yet in any of his pro fights, but I don't think so. I bet Sato heavy and the more tape I watch on the two of them the more I stand by that. Sato has more experience, better striking, and better trips and sweeps. Baeza has power, but I'm wonder if that power will stay if he's put on his back foot.
Woodson vs. Pearce
Sean Woodson, DEC
Glad to see Sean Woodsen at 155. He was too big to make 145 and he'll fit in better at lightweight. I wish he would have given himself a bit more time to fill out those legs, but he's a young fighter and he's got bills to pay I'm sure. This is a great fight for him to make his lightweight debut and I think a well fought win for Woodson. He has amazing boxing, really amazing. He's good at avoiding and countering kicks and he knows how to use volume to shut people down. Pearce is also a good striker and look for him to try and piece up Woodson's legs, but that's nothing Woodson hasn't seen. Pearce also showed good takedowns in his contender fight, but I don't know if that'll work here against Woodson who is really good at keeping his ass off the ground when he's not tired as ****. I know that Erosa fight might make people want to fade Woodson (and Erosa made me bank that night) but that was a last minute replacement against a severely underrated fighter who had nothing to lose. I expect a more measured showing from Pearce with significantly less of a threat on the ground.
Algeo vs. Carlyle
Spike Carlyle, DEC
FoTN likely.
Curtis Blaydes, SUB, R3
Kind of a bad main event, but I guess the name value is there. This is the UFC so anyone should be ready to fight anyone, but this is a gimme fight for Blaydes. Lewis has good power and his cardio is steadily and slowly getting better, and I'll keep an eye out for how low his weight is on the scale before I place any big bets. But I don't see any way Blaydes gets clipped here, and if he does he has a great ******* chin and he can get a body lock and stall or take Lewis down. If Blaydes had shown a volkov/reem level chin then I wouldn't be as confident, but I think it'll take more than one big shot from Lewis to take him out. And really that's all Lewis has after the second round. Blaydes has shown significant improvements in his striking recently (likely from working with the man, the myth, the legend Overeem). But his cardio in the Volkov fight was laughable. But I mean he's fighting someone with probably the worst cardio in the top 10 of heavyweight outside of Ngannou. Blaydes pot shots jabs and body kicks until he feels comfortable enough to grab Lewis and smother him against the cage. I'd rather Lewis wins via a freak KO because he's funner and Blaydes last performance against Volkov really embittered him to me. But if I always bet with my heart I'd screwed.
Moicano vs. Fiziev
Renato Moicano, SUB, R2
Bangkok ready Fiziev looked great in his last fight. But that was a one dimensional fight no matter how you look at it, two KO artists who were competing to see who landed first and ended up kind of stalemating with Fiziev edging out the striking finesse. Fiziev showed good skill in addition to outstanding power and really impressed me. But Moicano has a much higher fight IQ than Diakese and I think it will show in this fight. Moicano has taken down almost every opponent he's faced (even Brian Ortega to his regret) other than Calvin Kattar, Jose Aldo, and the Zombie. So what exclusively top 5 featherweight talent? And he probably didn't take Kattar down just because he was demolishing him on the feet. Moicano when he looks good, looks like a world champion. But man those last two losses are scary, he didn't even manage to land a significant punch on Zombie before he got absolutely starched. Then there was that relatively close fight against Aldo up until it wasn't close at all. So I guess that's what's making people think Fiziev deserves to be the favorite here? But I don't see it, Fiziev for all the hype I hear around him hasn't been able to get the two sub 15 rank UFC fighters out inside the distance. Moicano is definitely the better MMA fighter here if his chin holds. Fiziev will be able to check his leg kicks which will take away one of Moicano's best weapons, but I don't see how Fiziev stops Moicano from taking him down if he wants to. Moicano by submission outside the first round.
Smith vs. Clark
Anthony Smith, SUB, R3
Yikes Anthony Smith's last two fight left something to be desired. I watched him on all his local fights and the dude really earned the name Lionheart. He was a great fighter in the cage (a little undisciplined out of it but hey this is cagefighting not ballet) and I'd never seen him quit on the stool. He may not have quit on the stool yet, but he kind of quit underneath Rakic. I don't know if the damage is accumulating or he just lost that fire after fighting for the title, but he hasn't looked the same recently. Old Anthony, even pre-UFC, would maul Clark like his nickname. At this point, god I don't know. I put a knee-jerk bet on Lionheart at even money because I couldn't resist, but if Clark drags Smith to the ground it could be a long boring fight. Which is ******* weird because I've rolled with Smith and seen him roll with good black belts and he's a legit blackbelt off his back, or he was... I don't know what happened in that Rakic fight but it just looks like the fire is gone.
Baeza vs. Sato
Takashi Sato, TKO, R2
This is an easy bet for me. Takashi Sato at as high as +180 depending on when you caught him? Holy ****, either I'm ******** or other people are. Go watch Baeza's contender fight and tell me you don't see someone with the power Sato has displayed putting him to sleep? Baeza has awful striking defense and while I get that he looks like a world beater when he's playing the hammer, that won't work with someone like Sato. Now Baeza could win if he shows a facet of his game that I haven't seen yet in any of his pro fights, but I don't think so. I bet Sato heavy and the more tape I watch on the two of them the more I stand by that. Sato has more experience, better striking, and better trips and sweeps. Baeza has power, but I'm wonder if that power will stay if he's put on his back foot.
Woodson vs. Pearce
Sean Woodson, DEC
Glad to see Sean Woodsen at 155. He was too big to make 145 and he'll fit in better at lightweight. I wish he would have given himself a bit more time to fill out those legs, but he's a young fighter and he's got bills to pay I'm sure. This is a great fight for him to make his lightweight debut and I think a well fought win for Woodson. He has amazing boxing, really amazing. He's good at avoiding and countering kicks and he knows how to use volume to shut people down. Pearce is also a good striker and look for him to try and piece up Woodson's legs, but that's nothing Woodson hasn't seen. Pearce also showed good takedowns in his contender fight, but I don't know if that'll work here against Woodson who is really good at keeping his ass off the ground when he's not tired as ****. I know that Erosa fight might make people want to fade Woodson (and Erosa made me bank that night) but that was a last minute replacement against a severely underrated fighter who had nothing to lose. I expect a more measured showing from Pearce with significantly less of a threat on the ground.
Algeo vs. Carlyle
Spike Carlyle, DEC
FoTN likely.
"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner
11.19.2020 | 2:31 PM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 4 of 10 Winners, 0 Perfect, 230 Points | Tied for 1862nd
Smith vs. Clark
Anthony Smith, DEC
Easy win for smith
Anthony Smith, DEC
Easy win for smith
"Lets see some ******* action!"
2020.11.19
9:21 PM ET
event start time updated
From Saturday, November 28 at 6:00pm ET to Saturday, November 28 at 7:00pm ET
11.19.2020 | 10:13 PM ET
Response
Predictions: 4 of 6 Winners, 1 Perfect, 240 Points | Tied for 1801st
@tieoken Woodsons fight I believe is at featherweight. Per every other source except Tapology. He walks around the same as every other featherweight.
11.19.2020 | 11:21 PM ET
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 1 Perfect, 290 Points | Tied for 971st
@Jack, that’d be strange just cause Pearce has only ever fought at 155, but maybe Tap is wrong.
*Edit: Pearce has had some 145 and a 150 catch weight early in his career so maybe.
*Edit: Pearce has had some 145 and a 150 catch weight early in his career so maybe.
* Edited at 11.19.2020, 11:23 PM ET *
"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner
11.20.2020 | 12:58 AM ET
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 325 Points | Tied for 691st
@tieoken Woodson is honesly really high up they on my fade list, I think he extreamly overated because his really good at the outside but not that much else, Hes fight with Erosa was really close before Erosa got the D'arce/ Anancoda because Erosa was in his face and hes ground game is also not that great, Never been high on him because he was getting wresle**** untill the flukey high knee on the conteder series ( I won $50 on Erosa also)
Im probley gonna put money on Pierce, Even tho I think he gonna lose, One of my beting rule, if you have a guy on you fade list, Just bet agaist him if his oppenent is +300 or more because u hate yourself if you don't and you only bet like ten dollars
Im probley gonna put money on Pierce, Even tho I think he gonna lose, One of my beting rule, if you have a guy on you fade list, Just bet agaist him if his oppenent is +300 or more because u hate yourself if you don't and you only bet like ten dollars
* Edited at 11.20.2020, 5:43 AM ET *
"Quack quack quack"
11.20.2020 | 4:43 AM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 0 Perfect, 265 Points | Tied for 1318th
Algeo vs. Carlyle
Spike Carlyle, TKO, R1
Carlyle is insanely fun to watch. Two rounds of violence, then he is gassed but still competitive. I still thought he did enough to win two rounds against a game Quarantillo last time, but if he can't finish the fight inside 10 minutes, his opponent will always have a chance.
Spike Carlyle, TKO, R1
Carlyle is insanely fun to watch. Two rounds of violence, then he is gassed but still competitive. I still thought he did enough to win two rounds against a game Quarantillo last time, but if he can't finish the fight inside 10 minutes, his opponent will always have a chance.
"Check my ART here if you want : https://www.instagram.com/john.volcan/"
11.20.2020 | 1:46 PM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 4 of 10 Winners, 1 Perfect, 250 Points | Tied for 1745th
Blaydes vs. Lewis
Curtis Blaydes, DEC
Blaydes by wrestle ****. Both guys need to work on cardio.
Moicano vs. Fiziev
Renato Moicano, SUB, R2
THIS is an incredible fight. Moicano with the RNC if he can get Rafael down.
Smith vs. Clark
Anthony Smith, SUB, R1
Should be an easy win for Smith if he shows up. Appropriate step down because he needs a W. If Clark wins he is in the top 5.
Baeza vs. Sato
Miguel Baeza, TKO, R1
WAR
Parisian vs. Porter
Josh Parisian, TKO, R1
...
Algeo vs. Carlyle
Spike Carlyle, TKO, R1
FOTY
Curtis Blaydes, DEC
Blaydes by wrestle ****. Both guys need to work on cardio.
Moicano vs. Fiziev
Renato Moicano, SUB, R2
THIS is an incredible fight. Moicano with the RNC if he can get Rafael down.
Smith vs. Clark
Anthony Smith, SUB, R1
Should be an easy win for Smith if he shows up. Appropriate step down because he needs a W. If Clark wins he is in the top 5.
Baeza vs. Sato
Miguel Baeza, TKO, R1
WAR
Parisian vs. Porter
Josh Parisian, TKO, R1
...
Algeo vs. Carlyle
Spike Carlyle, TKO, R1
FOTY
"If you jingle my bells, you will have a white Christmas, "
2020.11.21
5:20 PM ET
bout status update
Woodson vs. Pearce Changed from Confirmed to Cancelled
2020.11.21
5:20 PM ET
bout announced
Kai Kamaka III vs. Jonathan Pearce at 145 lbs (65.8 kg)
11.22.2020 | 12:50 AM ET
Predictions: 2 of 5 Winners, 0 Perfect, 115 Points | Tied for 2785th
A guy who breaks takedown records vs possibly the least skilled heavyweight on the ground. I'm going Blaydes by decision.
11.22.2020 | 7:19 AM ET
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 315 Points | Tied for 762nd
I think Clark bullies Anthony Smith. I also like the sato bet. Might parlay them both.
11.22.2020 | 10:32 AM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 3 of 10 Winners, 1 Perfect, 190 Points | Tied for 2406th
Albazi vs. Zhumagulov
Amir Albazi, DEC
Over rounds
Algeo vs. Carlyle
Bill Algeo, DEC
Spike could KO but gasses out. Not Spike by decision, that’s for sure.
Mudaerji vs. Gordon
Malcolm Gordon, SUB, R3
Over 1
Kamaka III vs. Pearce
Kai Kamaka III, DEC
Over rounds
Amir Albazi, DEC
Over rounds
Algeo vs. Carlyle
Bill Algeo, DEC
Spike could KO but gasses out. Not Spike by decision, that’s for sure.
Mudaerji vs. Gordon
Malcolm Gordon, SUB, R3
Over 1
Kamaka III vs. Pearce
Kai Kamaka III, DEC
Over rounds
11.22.2020 | 12:58 PM ET
Predictions: 2 of 5 Winners, 0 Perfect, 115 Points | Tied for 2785th
I don't know what to think of Anthony Smith at this point. He looks ready to hang up the gloves in his last two fights, but this should be winnable.
11.22.2020 | 2:45 PM ET
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 365 Points | Tied for 336th
why is sato a dog?
11.22.2020 | 2:53 PM ET
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 1 Perfect, 290 Points | Tied for 971st
He almost isn't anymore. The line has shifted a lot which makes me sad, I wanted to get him on my DK lineups for cheap. I think he's still +120 at the moment which is still, in my opinion a steal. But I barely went even last UFC so I'm basically an idiot.
"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner
11.22.2020 | 3:09 PM ET
Predictions: 4 of 10 Winners, 0 Perfect, 215 Points | Tied for 2031st
How interesting. Blaydes' humongous head is hard to miss and hot balls is overdue for a lucky ko.
Or blaydes just wrestles him ala Daniel Cormier
Or blaydes just wrestles him ala Daniel Cormier
11.22.2020 | 3:15 PM ET
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 325 Points | Tied for 691st
@free Blaydes doesn't have the Jiu Jitsu to make Derrick Lewis pay like Daniel Comier does, beside DC, I haven't seen anyone really hurt Lewis on the ground. If Blaydes didn't learn from the Volkov fight. +270 and rising for Lewis is really good odds that I can't pass up, Even though I think Blaydes will win
"Quack quack quack"
11.22.2020 | 3:34 PM ET
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 0 Perfect, 250 Points | Tied for 1579th
Hate this matchup. Lewis just gonna get wrestle ****** by blaydes for 25 minutes
"Dont take life too serious, you will never make it out alive."
11.22.2020 | 4:43 PM ET
Predictions: 2 of 5 Winners, 0 Perfect, 115 Points | Tied for 2785th
Blaydes won't be looking for a submission, but Lewis is so bad off his back, he probably won't be able to get up. Blaydes just has to do enough to keep the ref happy. Lewis is going to have to make the most of the 20 seconds to start each round before Blaydes shoots.
11.22.2020 | 4:45 PM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 1 Perfect, 290 Points | Tied for 971st
Blaydes vs. Lewis
Curtis Blaydes, TKO, R2
In my opinion is hard to predict. We all know that Lewis has mostrous power in his hands and in his last fight he has show to us that he can wrestle too, but i think Blaydes is gonna out wrestle and finish him in ground and pound.
Smith vs. Clark
Anthony Smith, DEC
Smith has not performed very well in his last two fights, but i think the opponent this time is not at his level. Anthony Smith is gonna get the decision.
Curtis Blaydes, TKO, R2
In my opinion is hard to predict. We all know that Lewis has mostrous power in his hands and in his last fight he has show to us that he can wrestle too, but i think Blaydes is gonna out wrestle and finish him in ground and pound.
Smith vs. Clark
Anthony Smith, DEC
Smith has not performed very well in his last two fights, but i think the opponent this time is not at his level. Anthony Smith is gonna get the decision.
"I don't throw and hope, I aim and fire."
11.22.2020 | 5:13 PM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 1 Perfect, 290 Points | Tied for 971st
Day vs. dos Santos
Anderson dos Santos, TKO, R3
Dog pick number three. Day has a questionable chin and gas tank. I rate Anderson Dos Santos as a game fighter and that's enough for me to consider the line disrespectful. He's had good fights and shown a lot of durability when he needs to as well as a very well rounded ground game both defensively and offensively. There's no shame in losing to Nad (especially with how tough he looked losing to top contender in Dawson) or Ewell. I think this is a much more favorable match up and he wins this fight on the ground via UD. 2U bet to return 4.5U
Mudaerji vs. Gordon
Malcolm Gordon, SUB, R1
Another easy dog pick. I know Su (Hello Johnny Cash) has had some great performances in the octagon, even picking up an infamous 30-25 over Andre SuckEmOff. But his biggest weakness is his submission defense and that's Gordans biggest strength. Once again, because I feel like I have to say it, I expect Su to win this fight maybe 65% of the time, but the odds are picking him to win about 80% of the time, and I can't ignore that value. Not really a detailed explanation in either of these two picks because I'm writing them off a line shift, but this one I have done all the tape for and I see a clear potential path to victory for Gordon despite being the undersized and underskilled striker in this fight. .5U bet to return ~2U
Kamaka III vs. Pearce
Jonathan Pearce, DEC
Pearce at +350 within a few hours of the line dropping. I think that's a ******* steal, I've watched just two fights of his and I see a lot of paths to victory here. Not a domination by any means, and he could certainly drop this fight. But I don't see how these lines make sense at all, he has all the physical advantages and has arguably faced a stronger strength of schedule than Kai. Kai fought most of his career at 135 and Pearce has had a few fights at 145 but has spent enough time at 155 that I think his 6' frame has filled in to the weight class. He has shown good takedowns and solid striking. I think Kai can edge a decision if he shows solid footwork and plays the in n out game. But I bet Pearce at 3.25U to get 10U return. Might regret this bet, but rarely do the bookies make a mistake this wide on UFC fights. I have this as about as even as it gets based of the tape I watched.
Anderson dos Santos, TKO, R3
Dog pick number three. Day has a questionable chin and gas tank. I rate Anderson Dos Santos as a game fighter and that's enough for me to consider the line disrespectful. He's had good fights and shown a lot of durability when he needs to as well as a very well rounded ground game both defensively and offensively. There's no shame in losing to Nad (especially with how tough he looked losing to top contender in Dawson) or Ewell. I think this is a much more favorable match up and he wins this fight on the ground via UD. 2U bet to return 4.5U
Mudaerji vs. Gordon
Malcolm Gordon, SUB, R1
Another easy dog pick. I know Su (Hello Johnny Cash) has had some great performances in the octagon, even picking up an infamous 30-25 over Andre SuckEmOff. But his biggest weakness is his submission defense and that's Gordans biggest strength. Once again, because I feel like I have to say it, I expect Su to win this fight maybe 65% of the time, but the odds are picking him to win about 80% of the time, and I can't ignore that value. Not really a detailed explanation in either of these two picks because I'm writing them off a line shift, but this one I have done all the tape for and I see a clear potential path to victory for Gordon despite being the undersized and underskilled striker in this fight. .5U bet to return ~2U
Kamaka III vs. Pearce
Jonathan Pearce, DEC
Pearce at +350 within a few hours of the line dropping. I think that's a ******* steal, I've watched just two fights of his and I see a lot of paths to victory here. Not a domination by any means, and he could certainly drop this fight. But I don't see how these lines make sense at all, he has all the physical advantages and has arguably faced a stronger strength of schedule than Kai. Kai fought most of his career at 135 and Pearce has had a few fights at 145 but has spent enough time at 155 that I think his 6' frame has filled in to the weight class. He has shown good takedowns and solid striking. I think Kai can edge a decision if he shows solid footwork and plays the in n out game. But I bet Pearce at 3.25U to get 10U return. Might regret this bet, but rarely do the bookies make a mistake this wide on UFC fights. I have this as about as even as it gets based of the tape I watched.
"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner
-
- Hippie
11.22.2020 | 10:37 PM ET
Predictions: 3 of 10 Winners, 0 Perfect, 180 Points | Tied for 2430th