UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@mmalchemy 

So I assume certainty means machine confidence in a given prediction, but does the number beside the fighter name indicate current odds for betting lines in decimal format?

I know you won't give exacts with explaining how the model works, but what metrics are included when calculating a winner prediction? Is the certainty tied to the sample size available on the fighter, because that seems like it could lead to false overconfidence in the model for fighters with low sample size vs upcoming level of competition. 

And of course the obvious thing that other people stated - why would that model be more predictive than the judgments of betting markets that can account for things that aren't statistically recorded? Factors like striking power, cardio, camp changes, injuries, stylistic differences vs. opponents, etc are all more easily accounted for in the betting market, so what advantage would the model have over that (especially if many of the basic stats like KO rate, striking accuracy, strikes absorbed, etc are likely priced into the market already)?

This card is cursed so many cancelled fights

Natan Levy out, Charlie Campbell replacing him against Alex Reyes 

* Edited at 09.08.2023, 10:43 PM ET *

Chris Curtis vs. Anthony Hernandez morphing into Roman Kopylov vs. Josh Fremd is kind of wild. Went from a very competitive ranked fight fit for any any main card to a lopsided ass whopping that belongs on the prelims.

* Edited at 09.09.2023, 4:55 PM ET *

We get to see josh fremd get ktfo so that’s cool at least

Absolutely wild that they missed the chance to put this rematch in Mexico. Relegated to a mid-tier Vegas Fight Night card is unfortunate. Hoping Grasso pulls it off again. The rest of the card leaves a bit to be desired, but Kopylov and Della are consistently good watches, so there are those two fights at least.

@AxaFin 

Yeah none of these nerds has any real life experience in the domain they are trying to make predictions in so they get duped by numbers and blame their models or the data when it bombs. they don't even understand it is not about getting the picks right for most people, it is about the process of watching tape, analyzing fighter's tendencies and making picks based on that.

That being said, Knuttson will try to prove she is well rounded after her DWCS debut and seek a submission win in this fight. That turns the minus money fav to a plus money prop pick, because I watched the tape and Dana's reasons to deny her the contract initially. 

Yesterday's picks didnt really go as planned although i ******* love seeing strickland get the w. 

Hopefully things go better this week, model predicts Shev to win which I dont particularly like. I feel like she is on a downward spiral, 35 y.o etc. I did factor in the regression of fighters as they age, but still it picks Shev, so we'll see. 

https://www.fightforecast.net/ (FREE)

website has all future event predictions, past predictions & info about the model itself.

* Edited at 09.10.2023, 6:55 AM ET *

Grasso vs. Shevchenko II
Alexa Grasso, DEC
49-46 Grasso

Holland vs. Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena, TKO, R2
Close first round, della Maddalena will find his shots against the cage

Rosas Jr. vs. Mitchell
Raul Rosas Jr., SUB, R1
Hard fight to call either Mitchell lays on him for 15 minutes or Raul can find an opening for a sub early in the scrambles

Zellhuber vs. Giagos
Daniel Zellhuber, DEC
Hard fight to call either fighter could show up and look terrible zellhuber 29-28 decision wins the last 2 rounds

Padilla vs. Nelson
Fernando Padilla, TKO, R2
Let’s see how Padillas grappling holds up

Kopylov vs. Fremd
Roman Kopylov, TKO, R3
Koplyov will bring the hands low and dink him up high

Cháirez vs. Lacerda
Edgar Cháirez, TKO, R1
Tough to call not a good look getting knocked out by cj Vergara

Cortez vs. Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius, DEC
Better striking hopefully takedown defends holds up

This is the week for a lot of underdogs. I could totally see Giagos, Jasudavcius, and Da Silva all win

Holland

Am I the only person that could see Kevin Holland beating JDM and then fight Garry at 295? Would be 3 fights in exactly 4 months against some insane competition but I could see it if he doesn't take crazy damage. Kevin Holland pretty much fights every 12 weeks and we know he'll fight literally anybody. 

That's probably pushing it even for a guy like Holland but I know the UFC said they want to get Garry onto that card at MSG. It might just not work out but the only other options that fit as an appropriate opponent would be Luque or rebooking him with Geoff Neal. 

  Rosas Jr. is (-550)??? Fool me once shame on you... Fool me... You can't get fooled again. 

Padilla vs. Nelson
Fernando Padilla, TKO, R1
This is could potentially be a parlay buster. dont get me wrong, I think Nelson is terrible but I’m not 100% sold on padilla yet. I picked him over erosa because he was the same size & style as erosa, yet more durable. To me, padilla is Steve Garcia with a better chin; he is huge and throws heat but can’t grapple and isn’t super technical. Being as big as he is, he is bound to give people issues with his size, but I’m really not sure what his ceiling is. Nelson is so bad but he’s been able to just barely sc**** guy since coming back. The difference here is that nobody had tried to fight him yet; everyone just gets sucked into a boring sparring/ cage grappling match which is where Nelson wants it to be. Padilla is gonna brawl & force him to fight. We’ve seen in the old days that Nelson folds when the fight gets ugly. If he wrestles this will be interesting because padilla’s old tape is atrocious; he can’t wrestle at all

Godinez vs. Reed
Lupita Godinez, SUB, R1
Another mismatch. Reed has skills but she’s too undersized & her grappling is just nonexistent. I think loopy’s wrestling is extremely overrated but, she is going to be able to do what she wants here. Reed can’t wrestle at all & we’ve seen how clueless she is on the ground. Although, loopy has terrible fight iq, she may just stand with reed the whole fight. She can no doubt beat her on the feet; she’s much more physical and athletic but reed has some decent striking. If loopy wrestles I think she will find a submission with ease

Kopylov vs. Fremd
Roman Kopylov, TKO, R1
I can’t believe fremd is taking yet another short notice fight after missing weight badly not too long ago. Fremd has shown he’s not really ufc level & further proved that point last time out. Sure he won but it was a terrible performance; he just hung on Pickett the whole fight. Kopylov looked terrible when he first came to the ufc but he seems to have turned a corner. He’s still not perfect but he finally trusts in his striking now. I still have issues with his cardio & striking defense but I don’t think fremd can exploit either of those. Kopylov is a very good striker; he is going to sleep fremd badly

Cháirez vs. Lacerda
Edgar Cháirez, TKO, R1
I can’t believe Lacerda is getting another chance in the ufc. He has had one of the worst tenures in recent memory; the skills are there but he is not ready for this level of competition. I consider Chairez to be a regional level fighter so I guess this is lacerda’s best chance at winning a fight. Chairez is a massive flyweight & throws really hard. However, he is super low volume & gets hit a lot. He hasn’t shown to be chinny but we know how hard Lacerda hits. Chairez has very bad tdd & loves to just pull guillotine. Lacerda is honestly a better striker and grappler (imo) than Chairez, the problem is that he has about 2 minutes to win this fight before his cardio abandons him & he just dies

Cortez vs. Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius, DEC
Not really sure where to go with this one. I don’t like either of these girls. I think I’ve picked against Jasmine in every ufc fight & she always proves me wrong. I still really don’t think she’s that good but she is very physical which helps her a lot. She also is a great wrestler to boot. Cortez is also a fantastic wrestler but struggles when she can’t get the td. I’m gonna take Jasmine here but not confident

Campbell vs. Reyes
Charlie Campbell, TKO, R1
Really happy to see campbell get his ufc shot. He was dominating Duncan before getting caught & I was surprised to see that he wasn’t on this season of dwcs. He is a great striker; throws with tons of heat & is a leg kicking machine. Reyes shouldn’t even be here; he was brought in to lose to mike perry 6 years ago & had to retire due to a near career ending disease. Just a recipe for disaster to be returning after such a long time away

Knutsson vs. Mann
Josefine Knutsson, TKO, R2
Lowkey thinking Knutsson gets a finish here. Mann is very small for the division & not ufc level. We saw her get completely outclassed by Bruna Brasil who is decent at best. Knutsson is a very good talent & her striking is top notch. You also gotta think she is gonna be looking for the ko since her lack of urgency is what prevented her from getting a contract

* Edited at 09.10.2023, 12:41 PM ET *

Grasso vs Shevchenko
Shevchenko DEC

I don’t care too much about this fight. I didn’t watch the first fight too closely when it happened either. From what I remember, shev was winning the striking and grappling until that stupid spinning heel kick in round 4. That could be a sign of the times changing, as Valentina has been making a lot more grappling mistakes recently but I’m not totally sold on grasso yet. Her ground game is massively improved & she’s got some of the best boxing at 125, but she still can’t wrestle very well & we saw Valentina was beating her on the feet. I also feel like a loss was good for Valentina; her last few fights she hadn’t been taking her opponents seriously & now she has gone back to tiger Muay Thai to train (where she originally had been forever). I think she will take the belt back. However, her time is coming soon once she has to fight blanchfield 

Holland vs Maddalena
Maddalena DEC

So happy this fight is still happening. This is the people’s main event; two strikers who love to throw down. I say it every time holland fights, I truly think he could be a top guy at 170 if he wanted to be. Holland seems to just want to fight, which I respect a lot but at the same time, it’s annoying since he’s so talented. Holland has a huge frame for 170 and great striking. His hands are super fast and he has crazy knockout power. Holland is also a super fast WW in general, from his hand speed to his footwork. What is annoying is that Holland rarely ever uses his size advantage to keep distance, instead he uses it to help him in striking exchanges. If he would use a jab I think he would be so difficult to beat. His bjj is also incredible but he only really uses it defensively. Holland looked phenomenal in his last fight. I don’t know how much weight to put into it because it was against a very washed chiesa but, holland showed how good he can be when he focuses. JDM had a very odd last fight. I can’t excuse the poor fight iq he displayed but there was definitely a combination of factors like late opponent change, underestimating said opponent, and two weight cuts in a short span of time. JDM very clearly won that fight in my opinion but he did himself 0 favors with the stupid guillotine attempts. He actually defended a lot of takedowns well. Now, this is irrelevant here since holland won’t wrestle but I felt the need to say that. JDM’s striking looked great in that fight, he melted hafez with his pressure and output. What did concern me was how long he was staying in the pocket with his chin up. He has able to read hafez’s punches, but someone like holland could snipe him in that position. I have to think he was a little sluggish from the cuts & not respecting hafez’s striking but it was still a little concerning to see. In this matchup, I think holland is going to give JDM the fight he wants. JDM wants to get in close range & utilize his box du shots and hooks to melt his opponents. I think holland is way too tough for JDM to finish, but he is open to being hit and Jdm’s pressure is just next level. Holland is by no means out of this fight but I think JDM is a better striker

Rosas Jr. vs. Mitchell
Raul Rosas Jr., SUB, R1
Not much to say here, just another mismatch. I’m one of the few people who actually likes Raul rosas it appears. Obviously, he got pushed way too soon but he’s 17 so what would you expect. He clearly had talent but the ufc gave him someone way too good for where he is at. Raul actually did pretty well in round 1 but wasted too much energy for the td & got taught a vet lesson. Raul has been working a lot tho so I’m expecting a lot of improvements. Either way, he’s fighting an Alaska fc guy. Mitchell is a can. I know people get really mad when I say that about fighters but this guy is just not ufc caliber. He can’t grapple, is chinny, and has 3 minutes of cardio. Rosas will get him down easily and do whatever he wants to this guy. This is the type of fights rosas should have been getting from the beginning


Zellhuber vs. Giagos
Daniel Zellhuber, DEC
Zellhuber had one of the most disappointing debuts in a long time. However, he redeemed himself in his next fight. As inconsistent as he is, I think lando is a much tougher fight than ogden, so it was impressive to come back from an embarrassing defeat & win a close fight. The first round was so impressive; he beat lando as bad as I think I’ve seen anyone do it. The second and third rounds were really close, but that was due to lando being a vet & using his tricky striking. As I said, even tho it was close, it was impressive to win a close fight against someone with so much ufc experience & a very unique and tricky style. Giagos is a good fighter but he’s simply just that; good. He has okay striking, okay wrestling, okay bjj, he’s just decent everywhere. It was very surprising to see him Faceplant ko ricky glenn last time out; nobody has done that to him. However, I think zellhuber is a much better striker; we’ve seen when he gets in his zone he is ferocious; very dynamic striking paired with a big size advantage & a willingness to never back down. Giagos could wrestle him but zellhuber seems to have good defense. I think he will be able to control the striking and defend takedowns for three rounds. Realistically, zellhuber should get a ko here; Giagos has okay striking but poor defense & not the greatest chin ever. I just think he is still a little bit green. He will definitely hurt Giagos but idk if he will be able to get the finish

* Edited at 09.10.2023, 12:40 PM ET *

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* Edited at 09.10.2023, 12:18 PM ET *

Grasso vs. Shevchenko II
Alexa Grasso, DEC
I know shev was winning the 1st fight but it's not like she was dominating. Grasso hurt shev on the feet in rd1 & was able to escape bad positions on the ground and get back up whenever she got taken down. Also we saw once grasso got shev in a bad position the fight was over immediately. I didn't see it as a fluke win. Grasso will be coming into this fight with the confidence that she knows she can beat shev & shev is basically at the end of her prime. Grasso 49-46.

Holland vs. Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena, TKO, R3
Absolute banger. Fight of the year potential. Holland has the speed, JDM has the power. I could see Holland hurting JDM & getting a d'arce but I also see JDM ripping body shots and finishing Holland. Hard fight to call but I think JDM gets it done in a war

Rosas Jr. vs. Mitchell
Raul Rosas Jr., SUB, R1
UFC just trying to get Rosas a win on a Mexico theme card.

Zellhuber vs. Giagos
Daniel Zellhuber, DEC
UFC trying to give zellhuber a win on a Mexico theme card

Padilla vs. Nelson
Fernando Padilla, TKO, R1
I was apart of the 7% that picked Kyle nelson in his last fight against Blake bilder but that's because I felt bilder was trash. Nelson isn't as bad as people think but I don't trust his chin against someone with the power of Padilla. Wouldn't be shocked if nelson gets the win tho

Godinez vs. Reed
Lupita Godinez, DEC
Loopy should dominate but she makes fights closer than they should be so I worry

Kopylov vs. Fremd
Roman Kopylov, TKO, R2
On the feet it won't even be close & I don't think fremd has good enough wrestling to keep kopylov on the ground

Cháirez vs. Lacerda
Edgar Cháirez, SUB, R2
I was getting lit up on tapology in the ufc 290 thread when I was saying chairez arguably beat Taira in that fight. Regardless if my take was wild or not, he still made it very close with a more talented fighter than lacerda. Lacerda might be more dangerous but that's only in the 1st 3 minutes of the fight. Lacerda might be the biggest glass cannon I've ever seen

Cortez vs. Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius, DEC
Both are wrestle heavy fighters but I think that'll cancel each other out and jasudavicius is the better striker mainly because Cortez is all wrestling no striking

Campbell vs. Reyes
Charlie Campbell, TKO, R1
Hard to pick a guy who is 36 & hasn't fought in 6 years.

Knutsson vs. Mann
Josefine Knutsson, SUB, R3
Mann is trash

I think that Holland is a horrible matchup for JDM. The only thing that JDM does better is that he has more traditional striking and his punches are more straight. I think Holland is more well-rounded and can piece together a very complete performance against JDM

Grasso vs. Shevchenko II
Alexa Grasso, DEC
This will be close, I think its honestly a 50/50 fight. Alexa was beating Val on the feet early until Val got off her wrestling game and then it became more competitive. But then Alexa took her bakc and choked her with that brutal squeeze. I think this will end up being a close and competitive decision Alexa does well on the feet, Val does better but still loses in that area. But val steals some rounds with her wrestling but this time I can just feel Alexa doing better and being able to get back to her feet more. At the end of the day I think Val is at the end of her prime, not past but to where this is make or break for her.

Holland vs. Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena, TKO, R3
Honestly, either Holland gets the D'arce or this is JDMs fight. Holland in my opinion is just a bigger, more powerful but less technical Randy Brown but I will admit he has a chin so this could easily turn into a decision. This could be very competitive and I dont blsame people for picking Holland after JDMs last fight. Mark my words though Jack if you pull another Guillotine we are done, out of principle I will pick anyone over you.

Rosas Jr. vs. Mitchell
Raul Rosas Jr., SUB, R1
As long as Raul doesnt gas in the 1st and not get the sub this should be a nice rebound fight for him. Saaiman is great but if he can get the sub, Raul should be able to. But if this goes past the first, this could be a rough one for him. At the end of the day he shouldhave hopefully learned from his mistake. Also its rare for a BW to have a bigger chin than Aspinall

Zellhuber vs. Giagos
Daniel Zellhuber, DEC
Honestly I am not sure. Giagos is pretty good and doesnt lose to bums, but Zellhuber I think is finding his step now. 29-28 decision imho.

Padilla vs. Nelson
Fernando Padilla, TKO, R2
Padilla is crisp af and nelson isnt bad, but he is clearly gonna be the heavy bag that shows of padilla to everyone, whilst giving him a durable test

Godinez vs. Reed
Lupita Godinez, DEC
Loopy i choose to strike now, is gonna make this closer than it should be and Reed has constantly overperformed my expectations for her. Is Loopy chooses to strike she will lose. If she wrestlers Reed will give a tough fight maybe winning the last round with her cardio but at the end of the day this is Loppy's fight to lose. And lose she can as her fight IQ is pretty ass

Kopylov vs. Fremd
Roman Kopylov, TKO, R2
Fremd is getting fed as the UFC clearly dont want him after that last fight and just being mid overall. but Fremd cant be underestimated and will test Kopylov in the grappling again. well that is if he can get his game off. I imagine the 1st rd is pretty investment heavy from Roman and as he puts on the pace and pressure in rd 2 he will pull ahead and Fremd will fold

Cháirez vs. Lacerda
Edgar Cháirez, TKO, R3
Lacerda is endless fun for 1 rd but he is a glass cannon. As long as he doesnt catch Chairez this is pretty cut and dry. sucks Lacerda hasnt gotten a win before being cut. Chairez is sneakily good and powerfull, at catchweight I thought he would be a problem for Taira but at FLW for someone like Lacerda this is a mountaon to overcome. Chiarez/Inner G would be a good fight next?

Cortez vs. Jasudavicius
Tracy Cortez, DEC
Honestly 50/50. both have pretty bad striking and grappling wise Cortez should win but i can just see this turning into Jasmin lying on top of Tracey or holding her against the fence. Ultimately a competitive and boring fight that may end in a sub.

Campbell vs. Reyes
Charlie Campbell, DEC
Campbell may be nothing special but this is Alex Reyes. 36 years old, nearly 6 years since he fought and doesnt even have a win in the ufc

Knutsson vs. Mann
Josefine Knutsson, TKO, R2
Knutsson is an amazing kickboxer i didnt quite realise until halfway through this is the same Knutsson that went the distance with KANA IN A 2-1 TRILOGY EACH TIME. Mann is pretty trash and should get dominated into a some sort of TKO.

Rosas Jr. vs. Mitchell
Raul Rosas Jr., SUB, R1
Just Checking in on the 10% of people who picked Mitchell and ready to provide medical attention