UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Almeida vs Lewis Almeida 
SUB RD 1

Ill keep this one short because theres really not a whole lot to say. Lewis is a legend but he is very clearly on the decline. It was awesome to see a flash of vintage lewis in the last fight, but we have to factor in that pezao is ass cheeks. Outside of a blaydes-esque stoppage I don’t see how lewis wins this fight. If this was 2-3 years ago, then were talking about a lewis dog shot but he doesnt seem to have it in him anymore. Lewis getting a win doesn’t take away from how easily spivak ragdolled him earlier this year. Almeida and spivak are very different wrestlers, but jailton is much faster and athletic so I don’t see him having any trouble at all. Even if lewis wants to land a counter uppercut like he did on blaydes, jailtons blast double is way too fast. Should be a mauling here. 

Bonfim vs Dalby  Bonfim 
SUB RD 1

This feels like a mismatch to me. Dalby is the little train that could; he’s really quite bad but has been able to barely sc**** by wins in these past couple. Dalby’s striking is that of a cardio kickboxer. He has almost no power in his hands, instead just putting out absurd volume and using his cardio as a weapon. Dalby keeps winning because hes been fighting old men. Everyone hes fought recently has very bad cardio & just melt because they cant keep up with dalby. I truely think he wouldve lost all three of his last fights if his opponents were younger. Claudio silva was outgrappling him with ease but death gassed r1 like he always does. I honestly thought warrlley alves beat dalby but regardless a close split with him is a bad look. Finally, Salikov is so much better technically but his cardio failed him. Outside of surviving a choke & gassing out bonfim, I do not see how dalby wins. Bonfim is a little overaggressive on the feet, but he can actually strike. He does get wild very often but he swings very hard. He was undefeated as an amatuer boxer too so he knows how to strike. I actually really like his style; he is aggressive at all times but there is a lot going on in the midst of the chaos. Bonfim likes to rush his opponents to make them panic, thus allowing him to find a submission. He is not going to respect dalby because dalby’s punches do no damage. Dalby’s chin is weirdly inconsistent; he went from getting club n subbed by ronson to eating every punch without flinching from alves, so im not sure if bonfim could ko him. I could definitely see him dropping dalby tho. Dalby’s biggest weakness is his grappling; a gust of wind could take him down. Bonfim is a very strong wrestler & an even better grappler. I think he is either going to club n sub dalby, or take him down and get a submission from on top. Dalby has been getting very lucky fighting people in his age range; he is not at the level of these new killers at 170.


Nascimento 
SUB RD 2

This is such a random and pointless rematch, of course it has to be on the main card. Their first fight was not particularly close & i don’t expect this one to be much different. I will say tho, I feel as if nascimento has almost regressed since this fight. Since this fight he has gone 3-1. His fight vs baudot was very weird. He lost round 1 on the feet (very bad look) and then baudot quit as always. His last two fights have been very close & very bad performances against mid opponents. Against boser, Nascimento won using his grappling & while he had success on the feet, he looked really bad. The latifi fight was incredibly annoying; He didn’t use his grappling once & while he did hurt latifi bad in round 1, he stepped off the gas & let him back into the fight. Mayes on the other hand is the same guy hes always been. Hes massive and athletic but he doesn’t know how to fight. He just does whatever he wants in there. His striking is so bad, mayes doesn’t set anything up & has no semblance of footwork or any sort of technical abilities. He leaves so many openings to be hit at all times its honestly amazing he doesnt get slept every fight. Nascimento is very square & doesn’t move his head but his striking is definitely serviceable. Mayes wasn’t able to do much in the first fight & I don’t see much changing. Its low level hw so hes always live for a ko but I have to favor nascimento standing. If he grapples, easy win. Mayes makes so many mistakes on the ground its not even funny. Nascimento is no phenom but he has the bjj basics down & thats more than can be said for mayes. I think he gets it done quicker this time but who knows. I really don’t like this new version of Nascimento. He has fallen in love with his hands too much; they are not good. I could see him winning on the feet but he has such an easy path to victory I'd be amazed if he just stands with mayes. 



Viera vs Petrosyan  
Viera SUB RD 1

This fight is lined at a pick'em & for good reason. I get viera has looked very bad recently & petrosyan has looked great but both guys have a very clear path to victory. Both guys are one dimensional (for the most part) but they are very good in that dimension. Petrosyan is a very skilled kickboxer. He just sticks to the fundamentals but he is a very technically sound striker. He has the ability to knock people out but he has taken a more methodical approach in his last two. He still swings pretty hard but he has tried to just point fight for the most part. He is very good at doing this too; his defense is great, he knows how to maintain his range, and he does really good work with leg kicks. His leg kicks arent crazy damaging but he throws so many that it gets his opponents to start guessing on his shots & hes almost always up on volume; he makes sure to stay busy at all times, even if what hes landing isn’t hard. Petrosyan’s problem is his tdd. Say what you want about him training in dagestan, he still can’t wrestle. In every fight besides his last, hes been taken down multiple times & with very little resistance. He did show some improvements, both defensively & offensively but it should be noted that CLD is a striker and was doing some awful entries with his shots. His defense on the ground has held up very well but watching how easily he has been put in certain positions makes me fear what happens when he has to grapple with viera. Viera is a weird case, he is as high level of a bjj practitioner as it gets but he is very mediocre at mma. His grappling is phenomenal, if he gets you down its almost an immediate fight ender. His bjj is simply too good, the rest of his game is lacking though. Viera got exposed very badly against fluffy hernandez, and while that was a bad look it 1. Has aged very well and 2. Fluffy’s whole style is to break you with his cardio and wrestling. While he hasn’t death gassed like that again, I feel as if he has almost regressed since that fight; he has not had a single good performance since then. Against stolzfus he didn’t start wrestling heavy until round 3 & had a very competitive 2 rounds just standing with stolzfus. The curtis fight was very weird; on paper it was a nightmare matchup for viera yet he actually made the fight pretty competitive. He had no td success but oddly enough he was going toe to toe with curtis & even won a round off of him standing. Then the brundage fight was supposed to be a layup & he looked the worst hes ever looked. He was struggling bad to get the takedown & only got it because of brundage’s guillotine. He was getting bullied on the feet too. Its so hard to back viera after a performance like that. Armen is going to have him guessing hard with his diverse kicking attacks & could very easily ko him if he wants to. However, whats making me lean Viera was Armen’s fight with Caio. He got taken down as expected but caio was taking him down effortlessly with a blast double, which just so happens to be Viera’s signature takedown. In fact, its really the only move he has to get the fight to the ground. This fight is very 50/50 to me but when these striker vs grappler matchups happen, I tend to lean the grappler. I just really hate how easy Armen gets taken down. If viera can get him down I think he will easily dominate the grappling. 

Borralho vs Magomedov  
Borralho SUB RD 2

I know abus got embarrassed bad last fight but this is a much better fight than the original booking. Abus is in a strange position. Personally, I think abus is on the same level as someone like muradov or tavares where hes right outside the top 15 but not good enough to beat the best guys in the division. However, the ufc seems to think otherwise, as they have been fast tracking abus from the start (look at his original opponents before making his debut). As a result, Abus is getting embarrassed because hes fighting guys far superior to him. Now, abus’s holes are very clear; he has a bad gas tank & struggles when he is forced to be the nail. In round 1, he is very dangerous. Abus is a very lanky person & throws very powerful front kicks & hooks. He especially loves throwing front kicks to the body. The downside of abus’s striking is he puts everything into each shot, which leads to him getting tired when the opponent surivives the early onslaught. While he is a striker, Abus has solid wrestling. I couldnt find any footage of him being taken down so I can’t really speak to his tdd but I have seen that he likes to counter td attempts with a standing guillotine; that definitely won’t work against caio. Abus’s grappling looks pretty decent tbh but I have seen him give up positions to go for subs before & obviously he becomes less effective as the fight goes on, so I doubt he gives caio a lot of problems. I think this fight is going to be very similar to caio’s last fight vs oleksijczuk. Caio will be able to hold his own in the striking (i think his striking is very underrated) but he is definitely going to eat big shots early, much like he did against michal. ONe thing I don’t like about caio’s striking is he leaves his chin up quite a bit. He has very good distance management but hes going to want to be cautious against a powerful & rangy striker, at least early on. I have a feeling Abus will be able to defend the initial attempts & right arond the 4 minute mark is where his cardio fades so caio will then take over and find a finish late. I could also see this being a boring decision but you gotta think being on main card in his hometown is going to have him looking for a finish. Despite all this, I would not be completely shocked with an upset here. Caio really does leave that chin up in the air, I could see abus clipping him early. Besides that I expect Caio to just weather the early storm & finish abus late. 

* Edited at 10.22.2023, 7:45 PM ET *

The little train that could is the perfect yet hilarious way to describe dalby 🤣😂

calling Vieira for the upset  

* Edited at 10.22.2023, 10:01 PM ET *

@Rah123 

it says you picked Jubli on your past predictions.

This card has a lot of good fights. I could honestly turn it off after the Caio/Abus fight and be happy. Not gonna miss much otherwise; a pointless rematch and probably 2 fairly quick submissions. 

Shhhhhh 🤫🤨

@CrystalOctahedron 

Lets see the ticket where you bet hundreds on dollars on breedan!! Your clowning other people for picking jubli lol, Jubli was winning that fight single handedly, He was up 2 rounds to 0, Gassed himself out going for the finish, Good on Breedan for taking that damage and getting the come from behind victory, he saved his ufc job with that. 

@PickemMMA 

Why are you going out sad trying to defend Rah's honor?😂

@CrystalOctahedron 

Is 100% in the right, Rah trying to act like he warned everybody about Jubli vs Breeden is him being a sad lil liar for attention.

When in reality he said "don't bet Mokaev." Which wasn't a bad prediction especially since Elliot was up 20-18 on 2 judges scorecards going into R3.

But Mokaev ended up getting the finish in R3, making

@Rah123 

once again live up to his Rookie🍅 UFC ranking.

* Edited at 10.22.2023, 11:45 PM ET *

Almeida vs. Lewis
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R1
Almeida via Sub. Lewis getting paid nicely. Almeida is just too slick with the take downs. Doesn’t rush setting up subs either. Once he transitions it’s over for lewis.

Bonfim vs. Dalby
Nicolas Dalby, SUB, R1
Bonfim via Sub.

Nascimento vs. Mayes
Rodrigo Nascimento, SUB, R1
Rodrigo via Sub. Mayes is really bad. Dunno why this is happening again.

Borralho vs. Magomedov
Caio Borralho, SUB, R2
Caio via Sub. Abus got exposed. Caio closes the distance and wraps him up.

Bonfim vs. Pichel
Ismael Bonfim, SUB, R1
Bonfim via Sub.

That's what you think. But as you can see Gregory has taken away my Tomato. 

Obviously he realised that it was a disgrace to have a Tomato against the profile of the best MMA analyst and betting genius on the forum. I expect in the coming days he will replace it with an Infinity Stone to represent eternal power and wisdom. In the meantime there is a power fist.

I know you are waiting for my picks like everyone else, but don't worry I will put them out soon

* Edited at 10.23.2023, 5:41 AM ET *

Amazing picks as always.

However I noticed a small error. You have picked Bonafime but put the name of the mouth breather Dalby by mistake 

Almeida vs. Lewis
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R1
6/10

Bonfim vs. Dalby
Gabriel Bonfim, SUB, R1
7/10

Nascimento vs. Mayes
Rodrigo Nascimento, DEC
2/10

Borralho vs. Magomedov
Caio Borralho, DEC
8/10

Vieira vs. Petrosyan
Armen Petrosyan, TKO, R3
5/10

Bonfim vs. Pichel
Ismael Bonfim, TKO, R2
7/10

Zaleski vs. Fakhretdinov
Rinat Fakhretdinov, SUB, R1
8.5/10

Petrino vs. Bukauskas
Modestas Bukauskas, DEC
5/10

Hill vs. Gomes
Denise Gomes, TKO, R2
4/10

Alexander vs. Onama
David Onama, TKO, R2
8.5/10

Fernandes vs. Diakiese
Marc Diakiese, DEC
6/10

Brener vs. Ribovics
Esteban Ribovics, DEC
8/10

Marcos vs. Hugo
Daniel Marcos, DEC
6.5

Conejo Ruiz vs. Moura
Eduarda Moura, DEC
2/10

Punch Punch Punch Gomes
VS
Touch Touch Touch Hill

@CrimsonChinGuru 

Your right I think, I am picking Mayes in this rematch, Nacimento is really not that good, has very low output, he's barely squeezing out close split decisions over older and lower level HWs, he got taken down over and over by Latifi and he should thank the judges that he gave him that dec last time. I know Mayes is not all the impressive either but he might be more motivated to win this rematch. Mayes is like +185 dog. If Mayes is able to defend some takedowns in this rematch, he could land some big shots on Nacimento who got put away in 45 sec by Daukus whos not good lol. Very low level HW fight.

Borralho vs. Magomedov
Caio Borralho, DEC
How many russians has Ciao to fight in UFC? All of them

Hill vs. Gomes
Angela Hill, DEC
Hill via experience

Alexander vs. Onama
David Onama, TKO, R1
Onama is like predicting rerrrance mickinneys fight

Almeida vs. Lewis
Jailton Almeida, SUB
I have never been more confident saying that it's literally impossible for a fight to go to distance.

Zaleski vs. Fakhretdinov
Rinat Fakhretdinov, DEC
Proud to say this is probably my favorite welterweight. Rinat is a ******* killer. Absolute dark horse in the division. He can do it all. Control you on the ground for 15minutes straight, beat you in standup, submit you. Rinat by whatever he wants.

Conejo Ruiz vs. Moura
Eduarda Moura, TKO
Undefeated and has insane reach and height advantage in this fight, what more is there to say

* Edited at 10.23.2023, 11:04 AM ET *

Borralho vs. Magomedov
Caio Borralho, DEC
29-28 Borralho season

Vieira vs. Petrosyan
Armen Petrosyan, DEC
Rate Armen just unlucky he had to face Borralho early days

Vieira vs. Petrosyan
Armen Petrosyan, DEC
Petrosyan so underrated.