UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simón

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Song

VS

Simon

Prelims start at 430

Song vs. Simón
Ricky Simón, SUB, R2
This'll be a banger. I think Simon's wrestling will be too much for Song and he'll find a sub shockingly early into this fight.

Borralho vs. Oleksiejczuk
Caio Borralho, SUB, R1
Michal is fun, but his ground game is trash. Caio is a stud and a future contender in my opinion. Should be an easy submission win for him.

Brundage vs. Vieira
Cody Brundage, DEC
I'm gonna take Brundage with the upset here. I think he'll be able to hang with Vieira on the ground surprisingly well. When it gets to the feet I think Brundage's more unorthodox striking will confuse Vieira leading to Brundage winning a lot of exchanges. I think Brundage eeks out a decision by the end of the fight.

Erosa vs. Padilla
Julian Erosa, DEC
Erosa is a prime fluky fighter, world beater against Dawodu and then flatlined by Caceres. I think Erosa should take this one pretty comfortably, but if he gets caught I wouldn't be shocked.

Cortes-Acosta vs. Rogério de Lima
Marcos Rogério de Lima, TKO, R1
Rogerio de Lima is gonna expose Waldo big time. Marcos should just walk forward and let his hands go and he should find the finish in under a minute.

Quinlan vs. Waters
Josh Quinlan, TKO, R1
This'll be a fun one. Waters is good and UFC worthy but Quinlan has some dynamite in his hands. I think Waters looks good for a bit and then ends up getting starched.

Buday vs. Collier
Martin Buday, DEC
This'll probably end up being your typical low level heavyweight fight. Sloppy striking, getting gassed before the end of the 1st, and some wall and stall. I think Buday will end up thriving in the brawl and clinch more then Collier so I'll take him in the matchup.

Durden vs. Johnson
Cody Durden, DEC
Johnson is a bit fluky and its hard to pick his fights. I'm gonna go with the dog Durden on this one, using his wrestling to neutralize Johnson's striking.

Egger vs. Alekseeva
Stephanie Egger, SUB, R1
Alekseeva missed weight and is fighting a solid fighter in Egger. Don't see the fight going well for her at all. Egger should find a finish or win a dominant decision.

Newson vs. McGhee
Journey Newson, DEC
Newson is decent and I think he'll outstrike the short notice McGhee to win a decision.

Cowan vs. Horth
Jamey-Lyn Horth, SUB, R2
Horth is an undefeated submission ace, and Cowan is coming into this fight after missing weight and 2 or 3 opponent changes. I think her she falls short on the debut and Horth gets a submission win.

My final post weigh in picks - I have a few changes. Pretty happy with my final picks.

1. Hailey Cowan
I really don't understand why so many people are down on Cowan. I mean she is not championship calibre but she looks decent to me. Strong, atheltic and flexible with good balance as you would expect from a gymnast. I thought she did well against a tough opponent in Leite whereas Horth has fought no one good. Horth also is coming back from a pretty band knee injury for which I found out she did not have surgery and healed it "naturally". I don't like that. Her striking on the tape I saw looks pretty average and her chin is up in the air. Her main threat will be on the ground with submissions, especially arm bars. I don't think the wieght miss is going to be a big factor though I do worry about an adrenaline dump after 3 cancelled fights. But I think Hailey is likely to out strike her and clinch her against the fence and wear her down. The UFC clearly wants Cowan to win and I think she will. But first fight of the night so I am probably wrong about all of this and Horth will win.

2. Marcus McGhee
I was not very familiar with McGhee but I have watched a little tape and he does not look bad. Good movement, good striking with kicks and boxing and a decent chin, good clinch game and though his takedown defence is lacking he has decent get ups. Striking is a bit wild but powerful. I like his body work. Apparently he has very good cardio too. Main thing for me was at the weigh in he looked good despite the short notice and was bigger than Newson. While Newson likes to keep distance with his Karate type style I think McGhee will get in close and pressure him and win the striking. Newson has a ground advantage with his black belt but his wrestling is not all that good and I doubt he will keep McGhee down. I am taking a shot on the underdog McGhee who is at a very good gym and trains with Sean O'Malley. I actually really like him here.

3. Stephanie Egger
Alekseeva's weight miss was embarrasing to everyone but her. I am not sure what she is doing here. She is supposed to be a multiple time Sambo champion but I don't see it. Egger should be better everywhere and this is likely to end in a finish.

4. Charles Johnson
I see that so many people are betting Cody Durden. I think there is a lot of recency bias at play here. I just don't see how Durden wins here. With wrestling? Johnson has already fought much better wrestlers than Durdan and survived. His takedown defence, or at the very least his get up game is excellent. And Durden has very suspect cardio, especially when he is being pressed. On the feet Johnson is going to piece him up. I think the reason people are picking Durden is really because Johnson looked so bad in his last fight against Ode. But there were a few very important factors in the fight, Johnson was coming in on short notice and he was sick. He still was looking like he might beat Ode but the groin shot gave Ode a break and Johnson was tiring. He usually has excellent cardio but I think he looked bad because he was sick. On the other hand Durden should have lost to Aoriquileng and I the reason he won was the takedowns as Aori gassed. That is not likely to happen with Johnson. I really like InnerG here and I think he could even get a late finish.

5. Jake Collier
A heavyweight fight. Who really knows how this is going to go. But to be honest I have not been impressed with Buday. He won against an undersized Barnett who he leaned against and was able to hit with knees in the clinch at exactly the right height to hit a rib. But when he fought someone who was more his size in Breszki he was getting pieced up on the feet. He looks slow and very hittable and I have no idea how he won that fight. I think people are reading too much into Collier's loss to Barnett. He could easily have won that, most referees and doctors would have stopped that fight. But he emptied the gas tank trying to finish Barnett, not something he usually does. He should be the faster, better striker with higher volume and a grappling and wrestling upside as well. Anyone could win this but I think Collier has all the advantages except for sheer size and some power difference. This is likely to go to decision and a split decision could be very much on the cards.

 1. Josh Quinlan
I think this fight should be Quinlan's to lose. The striking should be reasonably close though Quinlan has more power. He does try to look too much for the one hitter quitter instead of stringing together good combinations and this does leave openings. But Waters is very hittable with his tall mans defence, though he does seem to have a good chin. The 2 weight cuts one after another for Waters is a concern as is the damage he took just about 2 weeks ago. The main hole I see in his game though is the grappling. Quinlan should wrestle and control him on the ground. I think this could actually go to the 2nd round or over 1.5 but I think at the end of the day Quinlan should win.

2. Waldo Acosta
I have been torn on this one. I do see that De Lima could easily win this with his power and BJJ, but I just feel that Acosta has a good chin and good cardio and could out last him. He will have the better boxing and volume, and though he is vulnerable to leg kicks I am not sure that De Lima can finish him with those. As this hits the 2nd round onwards Acosta should have the advantage. The main issue for me is Acosta's takedown defence which I assume is not very good. If De Lima gets on top of him it could be over soon after. But I am not sure that De Lima has very good wrestling and he could tire out if he tries to wrestle and grapple a lot. Close one. Could go either way but I will take Acosta and his better cardio.

3. Julian Erosa
Erosa is the vet with more skills and having fought the much better opposition but has a bad chin. Padilla is the green rookie. This should be a war and I am very worried that Erosa could get clipped by someone with the lanky frame such as previous losses to Choi/Leeroy etc. But the striking of Padilla does not look that good and he seems hittable. The major difference to me though is his takedown defence. Even though he is a 10th planet guy, I have a feeling he will get taken down and spend too much time playing off his back. If Erosa stays on the feet and brawls he could get clipped and put out. But I am going to assume he has some IQ. Hard to know for sure though and Erosa did not look great on the scales. Still taking the vet to give out a vet lesson here.If Erosa wins this is likely to go to decision. If Padilla wins this is likely to end inside the distance.

4. Rodolfo Vieira
I think Vieria is better everywhere. Striking, grappling, even perhaps cardio. He also has a good chin. Looking at the faceoffs I don't know if you noticed but Brundage's hands seemed to be shaking. Not sure what that means but I did not like it. Brundage did have an impressive win against Gore but I think Gore had a bad weight cut.  I was impressed by Vieira's performance against Chris Curtis and I think he should win this fairly easily against Brundage. The problem is that he is a head case. So he could just not turn up. Still I have to pick the better fighter in Vieira.

5. Caio Borrhalho
Lord Michael is a dangerous fighter. And super aggressive. However I think that aggression is going to lead to takedowns for Caio who I think is the real deal. And on the ground this should only go one way. If he does not get chinned early I think he takes this fairly easily.

6. Ricky Simon
I have seen a lot of people say that 5 rounds benefits Song more than Ricky. I am not sure this is true. Song will be defending takedowns from the get go and though he will have good takedown defence in the first few rounds surely this will wear on him. Simon is relentless and when he is on top he just keeps moving and swarming and that looks overwhelming. Song will be faster sure, but I do not think he is going to KO Ricky that easily. Most people he has KO'd are quite chinny. And when he goes to decision it is usually very very close. I just think Ricky is a bad style match up for him. 

Only can see value in the odds of Cowan, but  womens debut fight… can happen anything.

Egger and Borralho are a top favorite, but we dont can see the real level of Alekseeva, if UFC put Egger for her debut is because UFC see a top fighter on Irina, i dont think she can win Egger, correct odds, not value in anyone. Borralho odds are correct, anothe fight without value… one of these two can destroid the parlays lovers tonight. 

Johnson, Newson and Erosa… what a 3 guys… i think these 3 win but i dont bet on these guys when they are favorites on beting line, not value fights.

Waters can put to sleep Quinlan, but i dont like these guy, not bet fight but i see some value of Waters KO odds.

Vieira odds are better today, he is better on any part of game, i think he submit early Cody tonight. 

Buday, Collier, Acosta, De Lima… i dont can think these are UFC fighters, i dont like anyone if i can bet to these 4 lose i bet it, Collier and De Lima in my opinion, but anything can happen here, are the low value fights in these card, dont waste your money here. 

SIMON VS SONG… WHAT A FIGHT… 50-50 in my opinion, Song are better in striking and have good td defence, but i dont see he put to sleep Simon and these is a 5 rounds fight, the win are on the the Song TD defense and the Simon intensity and td attemps… if we want a prediction, Simon submit Song in the last 2 rounds, i think Simon better cardio and he grow up her submission game in last years, hes more than the classic wrestler what debut in UFC. 

If you want to win money tonight, dont make parlays, the fights are so close, my only bet is low stake on Hailey Cowan, 1/4 that i put on Sergey last week. Only win, dog odds is enouht to me in that fight that i think the bookies fix the odds only seeing the the records, undefeated always hyped but Cowan have 4 more profesional fights and fight with better level fighters. I see more strong and big Cowan in the weight in. 

And make one parlay: Egger, Borralho and Abdulkhalikov (RIZIN) that win some hours ago, you can change it for Viera but low value and low odds on Vieira fight. 

This week my money are on shinobu Ota that was a big dog today and win in less than 1 minute, i told it yesterday in Rizin event page. 

Good luck guys 🙌

Anyone see a significant size advantage for Caio despite michal being the former lhw? Caio looks 3-4 inches taller. Also more muscular too 

Erosa vs. Padilla
Julian Erosa, DEC
Let's go Juicy

Tore on buday vs Collier, I hate buday’s cardio but I think he has a good chance to win this fight by leaning on collier against the cage. What’s everyone else’s thoughts?

 I may be awake for this one.
Hopefully I don't explode.

Song vs. Simón
Simón, SUB
I thought Song looked good against Sandhagen but this isn’t a great stylistic matchup for him. I think Simon swallows him with his pace and wrestling. If Song wins it’s all but certainly because he catches Ricky with an absolute bomb of a shot and puts him out
 
Borralho vs. Oleksiejczuk Borralho, SUB
Oleksiejczuk hasn’t shown to be much of a wrestler/grappler and I think Borralho is out to prove a point. With how dominant he’s been in his UFC fights its only a matter of time before he gets his first finish. 
 
 Brundage vs. Vieira
 Vieira, SUB
 Mismatch

 Erosa vs. Padilla
 Erosa, DEC
 Levels
 
 Cortes-Acosta vs. Rogério de Lima
 Rogerio de Lima, DEC
 Levels
 
 Quinlan vs. Waters
 Quinlan, KO/TKO
 Not a huge fan of either guy so going with the fighter who already has a respectable UFC win under his belt. 
 
 Buday vs. Collier
 Buday, KO/TKO
 Another close fight but I have no confidence in Collier after the egg he layed against Barnett. 
 
 Durden vs. Johnson
 Johnson, DEC
 Very close fight. Dont love Cody Durdens tank. 
 
 Egger vs. Alekseeva
 Egger, SUB
 Levels 

 Newson vs. McGhee
 Newson, DEC
 Levels.
 
 Cowan vs. Horth
 Horth, SUB
 50/50 so going with the fighter who made weight,
 

* Edited at 04.29.2023, 9:20 AM ET *

Yeah he did. I think that’s actually gonna benefit collier tho. Collier was already decently fast for a fat guy, but buday is probably 280+ in there, he’s gonna be so slow compared to collier