UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simón

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Buday vs. Collier
Martin Buday, DEC
Winning streak wouldn't end to this guy. 💰🔐.

Erosa vs. Padilla
Fernando Padilla, SUB, R2
I favor Fernando Padilla. This 🇲🇽 is a prospect! 💰🔐.

@Ayy I'm surprised you are so high on Levy. I think that guy sucks. His kicks look flashy and are pretty powerful, but he favors his flashy kicks over the effective ones and just wastes energy. Which is then when he looks to grapple. Most of his grappling is him gassing out and then just holding on to his opponents so he can rest. He doesn't do any damage and barely even controls his opponents. 

On Contender Series he had 8:30 minutes of control time, but was just 6 of 14 on ground strikes. And that opponent was pretty terrible. 

In his last fight he had 6 takedowns for 4:40 of control time and 0 ground strikes. He was holding on for dear life every time he looked to grapple and still didn't control his opponent well.

And against Breeden he had 9 takedowns with just 3:40 of control time and 8 of 9 on ground strikes. He couldn't hold him down at all and was seriously struggling with Breeden's pressure any time he got to his feet. Levy backed up into the cage and let Breeden beat on him. He took Breeden down like 6 or 7 times in round 2 and I still think he would have lost that round if he didn't hurt Breeden with a body kick towards the end of the round. How poorly he dealt with Breeden's pressure actually made me believe Rodriguez had some Round 1 KO potential.

Rodriguez does good work when he pushes guys up against the cage. And I think it's a really disingenuous to call Rodriguez a street fighter and not martial artist. The dude has fast hands and throws diverse strikes. He isn't windmilling shots. He's also really good at stance switching off his combos and working all three targets on his opponent (head, body, legs). He has some skills and made an intelligent move by going from his small gym to the MMA Lab after the JDM fight. He has also talked about he hated the fact that fight was on short notice because he loves studying tape and with only a week to get in shape he couldn't do that. I think if he ran on the tape on Levy with the MMA Lab they would see a lot of openings with (1) the way he backs into the cage and shells with a high guard - body shots galore on a guy with a suspect gas tank (2) Levy tries to throw things with 110% power and often strikes himself off balances - counters are there. The only time I saw one of Pete's fights hit the floor he didn't look impressive, but he didn't look like a fish out of water either and he said that was his biggest reason for going to the Lab to work on his wrestling/bjj. The cardio not being tested is the big thing, but the kid is definitely skilled. Sucks it seems like he probably struggled with his cut because he could be a beast down at 155 lbs. Good chance he was ****** if it hit round 2, but Levy likes to stand early in fights and I think Pete could have sparked him if he got the chance.

Levy has been getting steps down in competition and looking less impressive every time.

* Edited at 04.25.2023, 9:11 PM ET *

My biggest problem with Padilla is he refuses to move his head off the center line and he just eats shots. That is a risky bet against Erosa. But Erosa's chin is nonexistent so it is probably best just to bet on violence because both of these guys are all offense and no defense. I also wouldn't be surprised if Erosa just tries to grapple him. Padilla got 30-26'd by Spike Carlyle on the ground. His ground game isn't is. He is basically all striking offense. 

Are you Mezzor. Your picks suggest this

* Edited at 04.25.2023, 9:54 PM ET *

@mrlzdik it’s not so much being high on levy, but more a fade on Pete rodriguez. His grappling hasn’t been tested at all and levy has shown a pretty solid wrestling ability. His cardio and striking isn’t great but Pete hasn’t been tested against ufc level competition for more than a round. I was pretty confident levy would take him down multiple times, tire him out, and then finish him when he’s gassed 

Too bad the fight got cancelled tho. Moved to nay 13

As for padilla, I noticed that too. He is pretty **** but knowing erosa I think this is just gonna be a wild brawl. Given the size advantages I worry he’s live for a knockout

Ya Dong is 25 years old ***

No he isn't. Trust me

Cortes-Acosta vs. Rogério de Lima
Marcos Rogério de Lima, TKO, R1
I know who's tougher but I also know who's technically better

Egger vs. Alekseeva
Stephanie Egger, DEC
Actually really curious about Irina. Always fun when a different 🇷🇺 joins the U.F.C.

Cowan vs. Horth
Jamey-Lyn Horth, DEC
Let's see what the hypes all about

Song vs. Simón
Ricky Simón
USA VS CHINA FADE

Borralho vs. Oleksiejczuk
Caio Borralho
STRIKER FADE VS GRAPPLER

Brundage vs. Vieira
Rodolfo Vieira, SUB, R1
RD1 & GUN

Erosa vs. Padilla
Julian Erosa
DEBUT FADE

Cortes-Acosta vs. Rogério de Lima
Marcos Rogério de Lima
WALDO FADE

Quinlan vs. Waters
Josh Quinlan
WATERS FADE

Buday vs. Collier
Jake Collier
BUDAY FADE

Durden vs. Johnson
Cody Durden
CHARLES FADE

Egger vs. Alekseeva
Stephanie Egger
NOOB FADE

Kelleher vs. Newson
Brian Kelleher
NEWSON FADE

Cowan vs. Horth
Hailey Cowan
HORTH FADE

Yadong and Alatengheili fought back in 2013 when they were both 1-0. Alatengheili is listed at 31 and would have been 21 at the time, but I am supposed to believe Yadong was 15 for that fight? It is possible, I guess. But I think it is a lot more likely Yadong is closer to Alatengheili's age. He even looks like he is in his 30s.

Go to Yadong's instagram and than Alatengheili's, if we are going off of looks... Alatengheili looks at least 5+ years older.

* Edited at 04.26.2023, 3:12 AM ET *

Song vs. Simón
Ricky Simón, DEC
Close fight like the Phillip's fight, but more grappling from Ricky.

Borralho vs. Oleksiejczuk
Caio Borralho, DEC
First boring fight of Olesiejczuk's career. Wrestle f***ing from Borralho.

Brundage vs. Vieira
Rodolfo Vieira, SUB, R1
Viera will overwhelm Brundage if he can get him to the ground or get his neck.

Erosa vs. Padilla
Julian Erosa, SUB, R3
Erosa let's the kid stay in the fight early, but comes back with his patented late stoppage.

Cortes-Acosta vs. Rogério de Lima
Marcos Rogério de Lima, DEC
Marco's should get this to the ground and look for a sub. He is much more advanced in the ground game for sure. The size difference makes me nervous that he might get caught early.

Quinlan vs. Waters
Josh Quinlan, TKO, R2
They say speed kills, but speed and power is HOMICIDE!

Buday vs. Collier
Martin Buday, DEC
Boring 50/50 fight. Point sparring big men..... very cute fellas.... NOT!

Durden vs. Johnson
Charles Johnson, DEC
Either Cody spams takedowns or Charles stuffs em and gets him outta there on the feet.

Egger vs. Alekseeva
Irina Alekseeva, DEC
Irina with the big wrestling advantage and power on the feet. Best price you'll ever get on Irina. Should be an interesting debut.

Kelleher vs. Newson
Brian Kelleher, DEC
I see Kelleher spamming relentless takedowns and using heavy top pressure with a lot of elbows and fists. Might get Newson outta there.

Cowan vs. Horth
Jamey-Lyn Horth, SUB, R3
A little sketched out on Cowan's health and skillset, as well as her experience in MMA. I think Jamey-Lyn gives her all she can handle and more.

Song vs. Simón
Ricky Simón, DEC
level 1: This fight is absolutely tough to choose. both of these gents are tough as nails and determined as hell. My purpose for choosing ricky in this matchup is due to his ability to mix up looks constantly. He can be striking and following one minute then be grappling or fighting for a submission the next. And not in a low level capacity. This kid is special. Song on the other hand is tough to get down and throws more volume/power. But what i got out of song vs sandhagen was that song doesnt hold up versus diverse opposition. i expect some of the same here, strike - get the takedown - rinse/repeat.

Borralho vs. Oleksiejczuk
Caio Borralho, SUB, R2
level 1: Kind of a lift your name type of fight for Caio. I watched this kid off day 1 and i could tell he is special talent. His striking is "good" but its not something to put a plaque on. His ground game and grappling is ridiculous. he will put you on the canvas multiuple times and either find a sub, hold you down with ground and pound, or put you back on the ground again.

Brundage vs. Vieira
Cody Brundage, TKO, R1
this is PRP material. Im confused to say the least on why people are laying chalk of rodolfo in this spot. This guy has proven nothing in the octagon. Compare with others

Erosa vs. Padilla
Julian Erosa, SUB, R1
level 2: Cant speak to fernandos game here but julian is a mid/low level volume striker and grappler. Will be siding with erosa to get it done.

Cortes-Acosta vs. Rogério de Lima
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, TKO
level 3: We just witnessed this story line last week with tafa and usman. A young prospect with no wrestling ability vs someone with "ok" striking and ok wrestling. Well now add in the recipe of good jiu jitsu. Low level heavyweights i would guess marcos just lays waldo on his back over and over again. but im going to stay on my ******** and hope waldo can rock him once or twice to end the fight or enough to steal a dec. I will take dog money

Quinlan vs. Waters
Josh Quinlan, TKO, R1
level 2/3: this fight is wild and it will be low for me this week. Trey is a last minute replacement for ange loosa and just fought two weeks ago. That always scares me with their weight cuts and everything else. but kids record show he is a dog. Scary....

Buday vs. Collier
Martin Buday, DEC
level 3: alright a fight with two men riddled with ****** decisions and bad dealings. i will take the guy with the better luck here.....

Durden vs. Johnson
Cody Durden, SUB, R2
Level 1/2: this fight feels like a coin toss. Charles reminds me a ton of that bobby green style that isnt built to capitalize in a fight, as much as it is to put on a show. He could come out in tremendous form here but i will side with the more confident pick and hope durden can wrestle this fight to a dec.

Egger vs. Alekseeva
Stephanie Egger, SUB, R1
level 3. This is a fight you dont want to lay chalk on but irina looks as unproven as can be while also not having fought since late 2021. Stephanie should get her down and sub her easy, but low level womens mma. all things are possible.

Kelleher vs. Newson
Brian Kelleher, SUB, R1
level 2: if brian cant hit this lob pitch then this will be his last fight in the ufc. journey is ripe for a takedown and submission. stick to a gameplan and mix in the striking.....

Cowan vs. Horth
Jamey-Lyn Horth, TKO, R2
dont really care about this fight and wont bet on it

I'll be watching this card but definitely not the most palatable 

Ok cool

Song vs. Simón
Yadong Song, DEC
Surprised Ricky Simon is a favourite, but he's looked good recently especially against Jack Shore, and that win over Merab aging well, but Song had been more impressive imo, he did amazing against Cory who basically dominated Chito

Borralho vs. Oleksiejczuk
Michał Oleksiejczuk, TKO, R1
Caio is just a ******* backpack, worst type of fighting style imo, Michal is a monster ko artirst gotta go with him

Brundage vs. Vieira
Rodolfo Vieira, SUB, R2
If doesn't gas tf out he should submit Cody

Erosa vs. Padilla
Julian Erosa, DEC
Hope fully he can bounce back after that brutal Ko loss to Bruce Leeroy, i like this guy

Cortes-Acosta vs. Rogério de Lima
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, TKO, R3
Yoy know HW mma sucks when this guy is one of the more hyped guy in division

Quinlan vs. Waters
Josh Quinlan, TKO, R2
Nah 6'5 WW is craZy af lol, and he's only loss is to beast Gabriel Bonfim, but he fought recently and cutting weight againt at that height, his chin definitely gonna be compromised, and Josh hits hard too

Buday vs. Collier
Martin Buday, DEC
Actual HW vs a bloated MW who fights at HW

Durden vs. Johnson
Charles Johnson, DEC
Mokaev's sons

Kelleher vs. Newson
Brian Kelleher, DEC
Both are beast but I gotta go with mini Josh Emmet