UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Lewis vs. Spivac
Serghei Spivac, TKO, R2
someone is going to sleep

Yi vs. Lee
Jeong Yeong Lee, TKO, R1
Lee might get a finish here.....he's very technical ...

Nakamura vs. Kazama
Rinya Nakamura, SUB, R1
i expect nakamura to get a finish......both have a good ground game.....

Park vs. Choi
Hyun Sung Park, DEC
park might get a finish in this fight.....the question..... do either of these fighters belong in the ufc?

Kim vs. Böhm
Ji Yeon Kim, DEC
kim is basically a boxer.....shes technical. she doesnt wrestle.....bohm isnt ufc caliber.....whoever loses this fight most likely will be released

Park vs. Tiuliulin
Jun Yong Park, DEC
park...decent boxing,good bjj, park is skillful,

Taira vs. Aguilar
Tatsuro Taira, SUB, R1
Taira has good bjj, good striker, can wrestle, mixes his kicks well

Just rewatched Saragih's fights to refresh my memory. 

This dude is a problem. And I don't mean for Jubli. I mean for everyone in that division. I am going out on a limb here and going to say that this dude will be top 15 in the UFC.

He is incredible. If you don't see it I don't know what to say. Just laid my biggest bet of the card on him.

Why has Tapology removed the information at the bottom of a fighter's page detailing the methods in which the fighter has won and lost at a percentage? I can't see it anymore.

Jung vs. Clark
Da Un Jung, TKO, R2
One seems to be a professional fighter and the other a professional athlete. Clark was never really good but after Smith handled him, he has been even worse. Jung to me seems quite solid.

Tybura vs. Ivanov
Marcin Tybura, DEC
Experienced MMA wrestler against another one. I think Tybura might have a sligthly more modern game and possibly a better gas tank.

Choi vs. Nelson
Kyle Nelson, DEC
Choi is not the same anymore. Long layoffs hurt fighters more often than not.

Jubli vs. Saragih
Jeka Saragih, TKO, R1
I honestly dont know much about these guys. Based on information gleaned from stats and discussion here, I think that Saragih should be clearly better.

Kim vs. Böhm
Ji Yeon Kim, DEC
Kim is not that bad. Böhm’s movement and actions in the octagon looks everytime like it’s her first time there.

Taira vs. Aguilar
Tatsuro Taira, DEC
Taira is better everywhere. Always a possibility for a ”younger fighter freeze” but I don’t think Aguilar has anything to throw at him to get him pressured enough.

I have been thinking about how the 3 of us are different from most bettors and gamblers on here. We are clearly superior. A totally different breed. Levels above.

And then it hit me. Though maybe it's been obvious to both of you all this time.

Most people on here are gamblers. We are not. We are analysts and connoisseurs of the game.

Gamblers play the odds. They play the lines. They watch for line movement. They play the game laid down by the bookies. And they think they are beating the game doing that. The amount of times I've heard people say ridiculous things like "this is a close fight so I will take the plus money" or "if it goes to decision I want to be holding the plus money ticket" or personally the most infuriating "I am picking this person to win, but now the line has moved so I can't bet him anymore, so I am playing the other side".

That my friends is gambling. Betting. Playing the game. And we saw in the chart Andrew posted with the ROI of the so called expert cappers and touts how well that works.

What we do is different. Very different. We analyse the game. The fighters. The matchups. The variables. The location. The training. The mentality. The psychology. And we pick winners. Not lines. Not value. Not percentages. We pick fighters. We pick who will win. And we place our bets accordingly.

This is why we are different. This is why we win. The house always wins? Not always. 

* Edited at 02.02.2023, 5:16 AM ET *

@Rah123, how do you feel about Ivanov winning as an underdog?

Very undecided. My lean is Tybura. Though not confident. 

Reasons being mainly the size and activity. I have never held Tybura in high regard but recently he has been winning. Though mainly by wearing out his opponent. His striking is meh but he is durable. As are both. I think there will be a lot of clinching here and as the bigger man I feel he will win that battle though Ivanov has good judo and sambo.

I haven't taped it yet because I think it will he harder to watch than the womens fight but age, speed, size and volume lean me towards Tybura.

What are your thoughts Dep? You are sharp, so would be keen to hear your thoughts.

I heard someone say that Tybura is what Fiziev would be like if he let himself go. I thought that was funny. 

Didn't ask me but I believe Ivanov will win. Tybura fought a grappler that really came out the gate swinging. Gassed out quick and realistically shouldve been a draw. I get the size of tybura can wear ivanov down but he's not exactly slack at grappling. He's my underdog pick, as is taira by points. 

I’m really liking Ivanov tbh at first I was backing tybura but the more I think about it I can see ivanov getting the nod it’s going to be a boring hug fest but I believe ivanov gets it done by split decision 

We have been doing some software changes, to get rid of some older technology. One of the things we decided to get rid of, instead of trying to migrate it to a new software, was those charts at the bottom of the fighter pages. We never felt like all those charts were quite right.

However, we will be adding a new replacement chart soon for showing the breakdown of fighter finishes.

I forgot Tybura and Ivanov both lost to Sakai. That's wild looking back on it. 

Sakai was legit guy, until he faced biggy boy and after that his career went downhill

Blagoy got robbed in that fight. He would’ve gotten a massive takedown against Sakai that would’ve won him the round (and the fight) but Sakai had an egregious fence grab (to put it lightly) that the ref somehow didn’t decided to take a point. This caused the rest of the fight to be standing and Sakai pushed a pace to steal the last round 

Sakai used to be ok, but now he's kind of washed up since his chin got touched by Rozenstruik. Dude can't really handle a clean punch to the jaw anymore. I think Mayes is better than his record tbh. Although the Hamdy fight was lost and very boring, it was still very competitive against an Olympic wrestler, and he won his prior 2 fights pretty handily. He has only had about 1 bad loss in Nascimento, and that is only because he got finished pretty quickly

How do you see Taira winning this weekend? Or are you smelling an upset?

Learn more about the flyweight phenom and how to get some better betting value on the biggest favorite of the weekend: https://medium.com/@WagerWire/wagerwire-fighter-spotlight-tatsuro-taira-ufc-vegas-68-971e81cb6893

Kino****a vs. Fugitt
Yusaku Kino****a, TKO, R1
I'm absolutely all in on Kino****a. He strikes like a vet such that it's crazy to think he's only 22.

It's funny cause part of Kino****a's name gets censored on Tapology MMA Feed on the homepage