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Russian invasion of Ukraine thread.
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- Baldric Eggling
02.24.2022 | 1:13 AM ET
I'll post what's happening as it comes through for purposes of posterity. Doubt the veracity of what is posted here. Having lived through the Iraq war, I am sure that the vast majority of what gets reported will turn out to be either misinformation or outright ********. Posting because a lot of non-Australia members will be asleep, now. I'll report as much as I can.
So far the g****vine is:
Russia has indeed embarked on a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Air attacks, and ground forces. There has been at least one missile strike, there have been front-line Ukranian casualities ( have seen video, cannot post it here, too graphic).
Footage of an airstrike hitting Lutsk:
https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1496721271907889155?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1496721271907889155%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpatriots.win%2Fnew
Belarus has thrown in with Russia/is issuing support.
Reports of Ukrainian air defence having shot down multiple Russian planes, either drones or fighters.
Some other info:
So far the g****vine is:
Russia has indeed embarked on a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Air attacks, and ground forces. There has been at least one missile strike, there have been front-line Ukranian casualities ( have seen video, cannot post it here, too graphic).
Footage of an airstrike hitting Lutsk:
https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1496721271907889155?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1496721271907889155%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpatriots.win%2Fnew
Belarus has thrown in with Russia/is issuing support.
Reports of Ukrainian air defence having shot down multiple Russian planes, either drones or fighters.
Some other info:
* Edited at 02.24.2022, 1:29 AM ET *
Responses Page 55
09.28.2022 | 7:54 PM ET
"I am the greatest blonde man in the world. I am Tru Viking." - Alexander Gustaffsson / "The world must bow to my glory. I am a God amongst mortals. They must pay me tribute in wine and concubine for my deeds." - Jon Jones "
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09.29.2022 | 8:11 AM ET
The excuse they made for him bring up Walorski was comical.
"The only thing predictable about MMA is that it is unpredictable."
09.29.2022 | 8:28 AM ET
Mobilization day 8 "Wrongly summoned? Own fault."
Things are still not going well with Russia's partially/complete mobilization. Meanwhile, Ukraine will soon receive 18 new HIMARS and 150 Humvees from America as part of a new care package worth $1.1 billion. Note: Ukraine now only has 16 HIMARS and they have been wreaking havoc along Russian lines for months. And that firepower will soon all be aimed at new conscripts who can do what Russia's elite units (their paratroopers, 1st Guards Tank Army, Wagner Group and Kadyrov's Chechens) could not do without a single day of training. And oh yes, if you have been mobilized when you are actually too old/indispensable/otherwise unfit, it is your own fault because you should have reported this to your local mobilization center in advance. A kind of donor registry!
The Kremlin announced today that Putin will make a speech tomorrow in which he is very likely to officiate the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson. That's what happens when "98%, 98%, 93%% and 87%" of those populations voted to join Russia when Chechen soldiers came to get them to vote.
Anyway, then Putin officially declares those areas as Russian territory. And then? Then Ukrainian shock troops backed by NATO intelligence and supplies are still on the doorstep. And Putin still doesn't have the manpower to stop those Ukrainians, even if he suddenly declares it a 'war' instead of a special military operation. And those 80% of the roughly 6,000 Russian troops on the Baltic border, which Putin is now moving to use against Ukraine, will do little to help either. Russians apparently do not practice operational design and still fight with the same doctrine as in Chechnya. But Chechnya was not covered by NATO.
Fact is Putin places that territory under Russia's nuclear umbrella, which of course makes the reconquest by Ukraine a lot more difficult and sensitive.
* Edited at 09.29.2022, 9:44 AM ET *
"Time is the enemy. "
09.29.2022 | 9:37 AM ET
They seem to be avoiding the mobilization.
https://youtube.com/shorts/SGLDkFO3ufE?feature=share
They even break each other's bones so they won't be sent out, am I a sadist if I say this makes me happy?
They even break each other's bones so they won't be sent out, am I a sadist if I say this makes me happy?
* Edited at 09.29.2022, 9:39 AM ET *
"Time is the enemy. "
09.29.2022 | 11:15 AM ET
🙂
"Dont take life too serious, you will never make it out alive."
09.29.2022 | 2:26 PM ET
avoiding the army by breaking bones isn't that uncommon
but **** hurts just from looking at it
but **** hurts just from looking at it
* Edited at 09.29.2022, 2:28 PM ET *
"****."
09.29.2022 | 2:47 PM ET
@Fremen
Can you imagine how desperate these guys are? No one wants to die in a war. They are sent to the front without significant training, with a bunch of ramshackle old **** that is immediately blown to smithereens by the Ukrainians with modern western weaponry. That will be talked about by now. Those boys already see the mood and think "go **** yourself with your war". When such an anti-tank grenade hits your tank you just vaporize, you might just have a little pink foam left over. Not a pleasant prospect. Then it just seens much better to have a broken leg, arm or, if there is no other option, a spinal cord injury.
https://mobile.twitter.com/pauljawin/status/1575183227534606336
https://mobile.twitter.com/pauljawin/status/1575183227534606336
* Edited at 09.29.2022, 2:51 PM ET *
"Time is the enemy. "
09.29.2022 | 3:51 PM ET
@Gobaz that cuts both ways though. It's the same deal in Ukraine. Nobody wants to be conscripted and sent to die. I wouldn't. Ukraine is currently rounding people up at the barrel of a gun and sending people with no training to fight. They are supplied with modern weaponry, but I doubt that this alone makes a credible, competent soldier.
I have seen too much evidence to the contrary to be convinced of the Western narrative on this conflict. The entire thing is just a propaganda cycle. It's a misinformation cycle on both sides. I don't think it's possible to know how it is really playing out.
For example, our side posts footage of demonstrations in places like Dagestan of people demonstrating against the mobilisation. I'm sure these are real. But what they're not showing is footage like this.
https://t.me/intelslava/38131
Or this kid being dragged out of a Ukrainian university to get fed to the meat grinder.
https://t.me/intelslava/38079
Or the nationalist, pro-war Rallies in Russia.
https://t.me/intelslava/37814
They're not showing the destruction caused by Iranian suicide drones and the destroyed Ukrainian tank columns. They're not reporting on Ukrainian shelling killing civilians. And on and on.
The reality of how it is all playing out is basically unknowable, because both sides cherry-pick what they want people to see, and to know. The only thing I can say for certain at this point is that I don't believe either side. They simply ******** in different ways. I will say that if the counteroffensives were as effective as western media has been postulating, then those referendums orchestrated by Russia in contested territory couldn't have taken place. It is axiomatic to suggest otherwise.
I don't think Russia is going to run out of men and arms. I don't know how much longer the West can go on funding Ukraine. It's an extremely unpopular in Europe broadly, and I expect that dissent to rapidly escalate come winter. It's easy for the Yanks to stand in solidarity with Ukraine. They've got no skin in the game. Different deal across the pond.
I can only hope that very soon either Vlad is dead, Or Zelensky is dead. I don't mind which. But this protracted ****show cannot continue.
I have seen too much evidence to the contrary to be convinced of the Western narrative on this conflict. The entire thing is just a propaganda cycle. It's a misinformation cycle on both sides. I don't think it's possible to know how it is really playing out.
For example, our side posts footage of demonstrations in places like Dagestan of people demonstrating against the mobilisation. I'm sure these are real. But what they're not showing is footage like this.
https://t.me/intelslava/38131
Or this kid being dragged out of a Ukrainian university to get fed to the meat grinder.
https://t.me/intelslava/38079
Or the nationalist, pro-war Rallies in Russia.
https://t.me/intelslava/37814
They're not showing the destruction caused by Iranian suicide drones and the destroyed Ukrainian tank columns. They're not reporting on Ukrainian shelling killing civilians. And on and on.
The reality of how it is all playing out is basically unknowable, because both sides cherry-pick what they want people to see, and to know. The only thing I can say for certain at this point is that I don't believe either side. They simply ******** in different ways. I will say that if the counteroffensives were as effective as western media has been postulating, then those referendums orchestrated by Russia in contested territory couldn't have taken place. It is axiomatic to suggest otherwise.
I don't think Russia is going to run out of men and arms. I don't know how much longer the West can go on funding Ukraine. It's an extremely unpopular in Europe broadly, and I expect that dissent to rapidly escalate come winter. It's easy for the Yanks to stand in solidarity with Ukraine. They've got no skin in the game. Different deal across the pond.
I can only hope that very soon either Vlad is dead, Or Zelensky is dead. I don't mind which. But this protracted ****show cannot continue.
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09.29.2022 | 4:04 PM ET
@****les The much-mentioned meat grinder is not switched on at all, yet.. In the battle of Stalingrad, the life expectancy of a Russian soldier for a period was about 1 day, and at least 6,000 Russian soldiers died per day. Very little is known about the number of civilian casualties, but it is known that Stalin had ordered that civilians were not allowed to flee.
Just a small reminder to realize that although there seems to be a lot of fighting now, in terms of fatalities in this perspective it seems to be not too bad with 50,000 dead Russians in 7 months time.
But winter hasn't arrived yet and Russia is not really known for taking good care of its own troops..
Just a small reminder to realize that although there seems to be a lot of fighting now, in terms of fatalities in this perspective it seems to be not too bad with 50,000 dead Russians in 7 months time.
But winter hasn't arrived yet and Russia is not really known for taking good care of its own troops..
"Time is the enemy. "
09.29.2022 | 4:21 PM ET
Gobaz I don't think antiquated references to things like Stalingrad are at all useful as a predictive instrument as to how war in winter, in Ukraine, in 2022, is going to play out. The technology being employed is totally different, it's a completely different deal. There is no parallel to draw.
I don't believe the Russian dead tallies reported by Western media. I also don't believe the Ukrainian/allied dead tallies reported by Russia. Likewise, I don't believe that mobilisation on behalf of Russia is somehow indicative of the impending collapse of the war effort, nor that this has anything to do with Ukrainian terrorism as Russia states. My read on that is that Russia has learned that it's one thing to capture territory and another to hold it when you're dealing with Himars and drones. They need more troops and resources to keep captured objectives secured and to push forward. Russia claims to have lost about 7K troops and I don't believe that either.
I don't believe anything about any of this now until any reported event is acknowledged by both sides, and is in the books. Basically, this war lasts as long as the West keeps funding it. I don't believe they should. This entire thing could have easily been resolved diplomatically, at the very beginning. The reason it wasn't is very likely because the US didn't want that. They love foreign interventions. It's big business.
I don't believe the Russian dead tallies reported by Western media. I also don't believe the Ukrainian/allied dead tallies reported by Russia. Likewise, I don't believe that mobilisation on behalf of Russia is somehow indicative of the impending collapse of the war effort, nor that this has anything to do with Ukrainian terrorism as Russia states. My read on that is that Russia has learned that it's one thing to capture territory and another to hold it when you're dealing with Himars and drones. They need more troops and resources to keep captured objectives secured and to push forward. Russia claims to have lost about 7K troops and I don't believe that either.
I don't believe anything about any of this now until any reported event is acknowledged by both sides, and is in the books. Basically, this war lasts as long as the West keeps funding it. I don't believe they should. This entire thing could have easily been resolved diplomatically, at the very beginning. The reason it wasn't is very likely because the US didn't want that. They love foreign interventions. It's big business.
* Edited at 09.29.2022, 4:40 PM ET *
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09.29.2022 | 4:51 PM ET
@****les You have a plausible point there.
By the way, as long as China is behind Russia, it will escalate further and further. And China cannot stop supporting Russia because then Xi will lose his prestige. In other words, he is in the same boat as Putin, who is driven by lying to the population.
Putin can't win this war without nukes, and he can't lose it politically without using nukes. So either Putin won't make it to the end of the war, or nukes will be used.
Tell me where the fallacy is if the above is not true.
In short: we have a very nice time ahead of us.
By the way, as long as China is behind Russia, it will escalate further and further. And China cannot stop supporting Russia because then Xi will lose his prestige. In other words, he is in the same boat as Putin, who is driven by lying to the population.
Putin can't win this war without nukes, and he can't lose it politically without using nukes. So either Putin won't make it to the end of the war, or nukes will be used.
Tell me where the fallacy is if the above is not true.
In short: we have a very nice time ahead of us.
"Time is the enemy. "
09.29.2022 | 4:57 PM ET
@Gobaz I myself can only imagine what goes through a mind of a guy who may be mobilised to war any time, lets hope it stays like that, but I did hear stories of people in my country (lots of army mobilasations years ago due to ocupation and 2 World Wars) that breaking bones was a common thing, mostly because running from country was not an easy option
@baldric
I'm not an expert, but from what I heard, there have been leaks in the early stages of the war in newspapers of things like funeral announcements, amount of fundings to families who lost their men, and back then it was possible to atleast estimate russian loses, but after these ****-ups, they kind of adapted and now there are significantly less sources to look for when speaking of death and injury stats.
No doubt the partial mobilisation is something we'd thought about 6 months ago, now it certainly shows it didn't go as they predicted. Russia care less about their people than Ukraine does, but at the first months there was no big difference in that. Both sides were losing a lot.
Does the war lasts as long as west delivers weapon? I don't know. Russia is running out of technology (still some left and able to repair) while Ukraine is getting newer one. From what I heard 10k to 20k Ukrainian soldiers are being trained in Europe (possibly UK), when they are back educated, it may allow them to fight back and regain territories.
I'm really curious about what upcoming months bring. It may not be Russia's war crisis, but getting your mobilisation station fired up is not a great sign. On the other hand though, I thought and believed that the protests would go better and strike harder when speaking of big cities and Dagestan.
****note to the soldiers being trained, I picked this number quite randomly, but it was estimated to be 20k by a war expert
@baldric
I'm not an expert, but from what I heard, there have been leaks in the early stages of the war in newspapers of things like funeral announcements, amount of fundings to families who lost their men, and back then it was possible to atleast estimate russian loses, but after these ****-ups, they kind of adapted and now there are significantly less sources to look for when speaking of death and injury stats.
No doubt the partial mobilisation is something we'd thought about 6 months ago, now it certainly shows it didn't go as they predicted. Russia care less about their people than Ukraine does, but at the first months there was no big difference in that. Both sides were losing a lot.
Does the war lasts as long as west delivers weapon? I don't know. Russia is running out of technology (still some left and able to repair) while Ukraine is getting newer one. From what I heard 10k to 20k Ukrainian soldiers are being trained in Europe (possibly UK), when they are back educated, it may allow them to fight back and regain territories.
I'm really curious about what upcoming months bring. It may not be Russia's war crisis, but getting your mobilisation station fired up is not a great sign. On the other hand though, I thought and believed that the protests would go better and strike harder when speaking of big cities and Dagestan.
****note to the soldiers being trained, I picked this number quite randomly, but it was estimated to be 20k by a war expert
* Edited at 09.29.2022, 5:06 PM ET *
"****."
09.29.2022 | 5:02 PM ET
Gobaz I'd modify that. I'd say Putin might not be able to win this war without nukes unless allied powers stop funding Ukraine. I don't think anybody doubts, at this stage, that Russia would have annexed the entire country already were this not happening.
Ukraine is also technically insolvent, and is kept on life support by European and US money. Meanwhile, the Ruble remains strong, and just bounced again this week. If you go back a few pages I actually predicted this and explained why I thought it would happen while everybody was screaming about how Russian financial collapse was imminent. That isn't going to happen-- the sanctions haven't worked. They've just strengthened the BRICS and forged new trading alliances that are and will continue to be bad for the West, whilst hurting non-Russian Europeans more than anywhere else.
The Chows are loving this BTW. They are buying discounted crude from the Russkis and selling it back in processed forms to us at a premium. The cost-return basis must be truly orgasmic.
Ukraine is also technically insolvent, and is kept on life support by European and US money. Meanwhile, the Ruble remains strong, and just bounced again this week. If you go back a few pages I actually predicted this and explained why I thought it would happen while everybody was screaming about how Russian financial collapse was imminent. That isn't going to happen-- the sanctions haven't worked. They've just strengthened the BRICS and forged new trading alliances that are and will continue to be bad for the West, whilst hurting non-Russian Europeans more than anywhere else.
The Chows are loving this BTW. They are buying discounted crude from the Russkis and selling it back in processed forms to us at a premium. The cost-return basis must be truly orgasmic.
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09.29.2022 | 5:10 PM ET
Due to whats happening right now with the mobilisation, territories votings, protests etc. We will see big things upcoming weeks. May have huge impact on the final outcomes so its worth following the action now.
"****."
09.29.2022 | 5:23 PM ET
@Fremen Neither Putin nor Xi have eternal life. In fact, they both know they've started the last chapter. Like I said; This is going to be "nice" (a mess).
"Time is the enemy. "
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09.29.2022 | 5:34 PM ET
As this thread has gotten more active, I decided it would be fine to describe what it's like to be living in a country that's a neighbour of Ukraine this year.
So as soon as the war started, I experienced HUGE wave of Ukrainians in every city I visited actually. Even though it's common for us since 2014 to have Ukrainians working here, it was never even far (not to mention close) to what has happened in February. As a Pole living in a small town, you're not used to be seeing foreigners, not to mention someone of a different skin (literally no one black lives in 50k city here), and mostly because of that, the huge wave of immigrants was easy to notice for everyone.
It was the people who helped them the most, not the government. Lots of people welcomed Moms and kids to their homes. Fundraisings were organised. Local goverments organised the events to bring food and clothes for them. For a couple of months they got free public transport (buses, trains), medical care, they were welcomed to public school, had special classes organised for them, school gyms were closed to host hundreds of beds for them etc.
I dont know the exact numbers, but some of them came back to Ukraine (mostly western Ukraine) and some of them stayed.
I see a lot of men as well. And as usual for eastern countries, some of them are alcoholics (nothing new). However, there is a group of them that is ungrateful and used to the help to much that they believe they deserve it permamently.
Media narrative here is very Ukraine-friendly. Russia is being hated everywhere here. It's uncommon to meet mainstream media critisise Ukraine.
So as soon as the war started, I experienced HUGE wave of Ukrainians in every city I visited actually. Even though it's common for us since 2014 to have Ukrainians working here, it was never even far (not to mention close) to what has happened in February. As a Pole living in a small town, you're not used to be seeing foreigners, not to mention someone of a different skin (literally no one black lives in 50k city here), and mostly because of that, the huge wave of immigrants was easy to notice for everyone.
It was the people who helped them the most, not the government. Lots of people welcomed Moms and kids to their homes. Fundraisings were organised. Local goverments organised the events to bring food and clothes for them. For a couple of months they got free public transport (buses, trains), medical care, they were welcomed to public school, had special classes organised for them, school gyms were closed to host hundreds of beds for them etc.
I dont know the exact numbers, but some of them came back to Ukraine (mostly western Ukraine) and some of them stayed.
I see a lot of men as well. And as usual for eastern countries, some of them are alcoholics (nothing new). However, there is a group of them that is ungrateful and used to the help to much that they believe they deserve it permamently.
Media narrative here is very Ukraine-friendly. Russia is being hated everywhere here. It's uncommon to meet mainstream media critisise Ukraine.
"****."