Guida vs. Maynard

This is the official discussion thread for Guida vs. Maynard. Let's see what you've got.

I think Maynard will be too strong for Guida. He is the better wrestler and striker and I expect his conditioning to be good.

I think Guida wins via late TKO victory (unlikely) or late submission. 

I don't think Guida should be a +300 underdog...i think he makes this fight close, but i don't think he'll win. However, i won't be THAT surprised if he does.

* Edited at 06.12.2012, 8:09 PM ET *

I hope Guida wins. Having said that Maynard will probably win by decision and a boring one at that. The problem with Maynard other then when he fought Frankie is he takes guys down and lays on them round after round. He couldn't do that to Frankie and he got KTFO. If he decides to stand with Clay he'll get KO'd again. If the fight goes to the ground I hope Gray has good sub defense cuz Guida never stops working.

Guida's going to want to push the pace but he has to be careful because Maynard doesn't play. I can see Guida or even both getting dropped, but both are probably going to last, with Guida trying to get a sub when he can but with Gray taking a decision. A win would be huge and would put either one fight away from a title shot, but first hopefully in an eliminator with Diaz or Pettis. Regardless, I WOULD LOVE TO SEE EITHER FIGHT "EL NINO".

Maynard has gone 5 rounds, Guida hasn't. Plus Guida loses to guys he can't blanket, and Maynard has 85% take down defense. Maynard via wrestling.

I think Maynard is gonna come out swinging for the KO, drop Guida at least once in the first 3 rounds and then grind out a dominating UD from then on.

* Edited at 06.18.2012, 3:16 PM ET *

In Maynard's 2 fights with Edgar, he slowed down considerably after the middle of 2 nd round. Guida's cardio is ridiculous, this fight will get interesting when it hits the later rounds. I am expecting this one to go the distance here.

@MMApicker42 Maynard and Edgar fought 3 times.

Maynard's too powerful. Guida's not very accurate with his TDs and Maynard's TDD is like the best in LW history (statistically). While Guida definitely has the cardio advantage, people are talking like as if Maynard's cardio is awful, it's really not. The guy goes to decisions all the time, he's gotta have decent cardio at least. I don't think he faded in the 3rd fight vs Frankie.

1. Mental Edge/Confidence/Gameplan - Right off the bat, both fighters are coming off of very tough losses in their most recent fights. Guida lost by decision to current UFC LW Champion Ben Henderson, and Gray Maynard was KO'd by former UFC LW Champion Frankie Edgar. For Guida, it was a setback, but he's lost before, and found ways to bounce back. He's probably done just like before, went back to drawing board, and found where he needs to make improvements, and how to fight better against his next opponent. For Maynard, this is his first official loss not just in the UFC, but in his professional MMA career. Though it was for the UFC LW Championship, some fighters don't recover from their first losses very well. I'm sure that there's some big questions on where Maynard is mentally coming into this fight. At more so, than Clay Guida. I don't see either fighter really riding a heavy confidence train coming into this fight either being the fact that they both lost their most recent fights, but a slight edge would have to go into Maynard's corner, because when it comes to common opponents faced, Maynard has a better record. Both fighters have faced Roger Huerta, Nate Diaz, and Kenny Florian. Gray Maynard has won all 3 of his matches against these fighters, while Guida has dropped 2 of 3 by submission. When comes to gameplan, both fighters are really good at having good training camps, devising good gameplans, and executing those gameplans on fight night. Maynard trains with Xtreme Couture, and Guida trains with Greg Jackson, so gameplan is not too big of a question for either fighter coming into this fight. With all of this in mind, I have to give Gray Maynard a slight edge in this category. Maynard 8/10, Guida 7/10

2. Experience/Level Of Opposition - I dont' think that there is any question here who gets the nod in this department, but for those that would like an explanation, here goes. Guida has 41 fights, and has faced many notable names, in many notable and recognized MMA organizations. He doesn't just have more MMA experience, Guida has more UFC fights, that Maynard has in his entire MMA career. A definitive advantage goes in Guida's favor here. Maynard 8/10, Guida 10/10

3. Heart/Determination To Win - Both fighters have tremendous heart, and have overcome tremendous adversity in many fights. I don't think it's an easy task to dispose of either fighter. It's so tough to call a clear cut advantage, but if I had to pick on who I think could win a fight just on sheer heart alone, I would have to go with Clay Guida. Maynard 9/10, Guida 10/10

4. Endurance/Toughness - Both fighters can take a licking and keep on ticking. These are probably two of the most durable, tough fighters not just in the LW division, but in all of MMA. Neither fighter is going to be put away with one punch. As in the last category, if I just had to pick who I think could win a fight on sheer toughness alone, then I would have to go with Gray Maynard. Maynard 10/10, Guida 9/10

5. Stamina/Cardio - Maynard has good cardio, but if you were to look in the dictionary on the meaning of cardio, you would see a picture of the Diaz brothers and Clay Guida. Hell, at the end of a fight, when Joe Rogan is doing the post fight interviews, Clay Guida is still bouncing around, and continuously moving. The man never stops. Three areas where I think Guida can take this fight is with experience, heart, and stamina. Advantage Guida. Maynard 9/10, Guida 10/10

6. Overall Striking - Guida has improve his stand-up game by leaps and bounds throughout his career, but Maynard has developed one-punch knockout power. While Maynard doesn't have the greatest technique, he possesses the ability to end the fight with one good right hand. Maynard definitely takes the advantage here. Maynard 9/10, Guida 7/10

7. Overall Grappling/Wrestling - Both fighters bring a great wrestling pedigree with their arsenal, but Maynard is bigger, stronger, and has better mat experience. Picking a fighter to win by wrestling, throws, and control, I would definitely take Maynard over Guida here. Maynard 10/10, Guida 9/10

8. Overal Submissions/BJJ - Maynard has 0 submission victories in his career, and during the filming of TUF, Maynard did lose to Nate Diaz by Guillotine Choke, while Clay Guida has most of wins by submission (15). With that in mind, I think that the advantage should go to Guida here. Maynard 8/10, Guida 9/10

9. Speed/Athleticism - There is no doubt in my mind that Guida is the faster fighter coming into this fight. Maynard 8/10, Guida 10/10

10. Strength/Size - There is no doubt here that Maynard is the bigger stronger, fighter. They don't call Maynard "The Bully" for nothing. Maynard 10/10, Guida 7/10

Overall Score

Gray "The Bully" Maynard = 89/100, Clay "The Carpenter" Guida = 88/100

 

Scenario #1. Round 1 - Gray Maynard comes out swining for the KO in the first round, rocks Guida, goes for the finish, but is saved by the horn. 10-8 Maynard. Round 2 - Maynard comes out with more of the same in the first round, lands some significant strikes, but nothing as powerful as the 1st round. Guida shoots for some takedowns, but is unable to get anything going offensively. 10-9 Maynard. Round 3 - Maynard finds his range again early, tries for the finish, but Guida still manages to hold on, as the round goes on, Maynard starts to fade, Guida's finally able to mount some offense, but not enough to win the round. Maynard 10-9. Round 4 - Guida picks up the pace where he left off in the earlier round. Controls the round. Guida 10-9. Round 5 - Maynard shoots for a takedown, but gets nothing. Guida shoots, scores the takedown, but Maynard gets right back to his feet. Both fighters trade blows, but Guida is actually starting to land the more effective strikes. The final horn sounds, and the judges scores are tallied up 48-46, 49-47, 48-47 all in favor and the winner by Unanimous Decision..................Gray "The Bully" Maynard

Scenario #2. Much the same as Scenario #1, but in the first round Maynard wins the round, but doesn't dominate enough to earn a 10-8 round. Round 3 actually seems to be in favor of Guida, and Guida completely dominates the final 2 rounds. Final outcome 48-47 for Maynard, 48-47 for Guida, and 48-47 for the winner by split decision Gray Maynard. Controversial, but Maynard still gets the nod from the judges.

Scenario #3. Maynard lands some significant strikes in the opening round, Guida is unable to recover, tries to go for a takedown, but fails. Maynard takes advantage of the situation, holding Guida to the ground, and pounding continuously on Guida. The referee has to finally stop the action at the 4 minute mark. The winner by TKO, Gray Maynard.

Holy crap @Jaykool.... I will read that tomorrow.

@kalibo I'm with you I wanna be on the clock when I read that! 

I doubt Guida gets TKOed by the decisionist himself.

LOL @ Kalibo..........no worries brother. Read at your leisure. LOL

Exactly @Soccer.  No worries @Jay... the days I work are so damn long... I'd much rather read your thoughtful posts when I'm coherent at work instead of exhausted at home... trying my damndest to participate :)

If Guida can survive the 1st rd i think he will win. We all know Maynard doesnt have great CARDIO!!!! But hes got heavy hands so he could finish any fighter at 155. But i think Guida will be smart and try and wrestle and tire Maynard out. Guida wins by decision!!

goddamn I am sick of hearing about Maynard's **********in' cardio. You guys make him sound like Bob Sapp.

i agree with @anik about the cardio thing....i don't think it's a big an issue as everyone makes it out to be. it might be a factor real late in the fight, especially if Guida keeps up a frenetic pace, but Maynard would probably be fine in a normal five round fight.

2nd post on the site. How about being welcoming or letting it slide.