Contender Series 2023: Week 6

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Matsumoto vs. Tanner
Jean Matsumoto, SUB, R2
MATSUMOTO BY RD 2 CHOKE SUBMISSION

Llontop vs. Lewis
Malik Lewis, DEC
Surprised Malik Lewis is back so soon to DWCS, but I am not complaining as I am picking him as a current tapology upset to win. He is a really rangy guy who loves to strike from short distances, specially on the clinch. He is a solid fighter in the ground too showing good BJJ. I understand the cardio questions after dead gassing against Peek last season, but I think that happened due to chasing for the finish way too hard, as he has not shown cardio deficiencies in his other fights and I expect him to pace himself much better as he usually does. Peru has been proving me wrong all this season, and Llontop has a good chance of doing it again. He is a really solid striker with his counters and feints being the highlight of his game. His clinch game is good too but I don´t expect it to be really efective in this fight. He isn´t clueless in the ground either as he can take the fight there if necesary, showing some good fundamentals. There is a reason why he has been fighting at welterweight recently tho, as in his last fights at lightweight he looked a lot more drained and vulnerable than at his recent welterweight fights. There a few reasons why I am picking Lewis, I think his a few steps above in the ground and I expect him to be a lot more phisical in the close exchanges due to Llontop´s cut. Llontop is always dangerous and could find the chin at any point so this will be a close fight nevertheless

Cunningham vs. Nguyen
Steven Nguyen, DEC
This isn´t the most inspiring fight this season, specially at a division with so much talent. This will be Nguyen´s 3rd time at DWCS, but tbh he could have been signed in his last fight if we had the current mother Theresa version of Dana White. Nguyen is solid everywhere while not shining anywhere either. He throws good volume with power but his striking defense isn´t good. His wrestling is solid but his TDD is flawed. Probably his biggest weapon is cardio, as he can keep a good pace with solid output for 3 rounds. The biggest question mark is the 2 years of inactivity, which can always surprise in a good or in a bad way. I had been watching Cunningham at Fury FC recently and I was surprised when he got the callup as he was having mid performances against mid level of competition. Then I learned he is Bryce Mitchell´s cousin, so things made a bit more sense. Oposite to his cousin, I think he is at his best while striking even if he is really flawed there. His combinations are good and carry power, but the lack of volume is noticeable. He also absorbs a lot of damage, but he is a tough dude. His offensive wrestling is decent, but his TDD and ground defense are really lackluster. If we see the last version of Nguyen he should edge this. He is a bit better everywhere, and keeps the pace the full fight, while AJ goes noticeably worse the longer the fight goes

Matsumoto vs. Tanner
Jean Matsumoto, DEC
This is a great fight between two really solid fighters. I am a big Matsumoto fan and seeing him improve in everyfight since going up in weight against really high level of competition has been great. He has solid striking that he mostly uses to setup the clinch and takedowns. He shows patience for the exact moment to do them, while keeping the oposition at the edge with use of pressure and body strikes. He is a really solid BJJ practioner and can find the finish via G&P or chokes like RNC. An issue in this fight could be his problems with ground defense as Tanner is a really high level wrestler. Tanner has better tape than Matsumoto, but the difference level of oposition is abysmal. Tanner also sets up takedowns with pressure even if he isn´t nearly as polished there as Matsumoto. He looks great once the fight hits the ground tho, as he has been manhandling the guys he has faced. Similarly to Nguyen, Tanner´s lack of activity is worrying, he is aproaching 32 yo and his last fight was a year and a half ago. At the end of the day I am picking Matsumoto to win this, he keeps improving every fight and everybody he beats is at least decent, something that can not be said about any of Tanner´s oponents. I see a lot of people picking Matsumoto by sub currently, so I must say I would be really surprised if Matsumoto found the finish given Tanner´s wrestling skills

Neves vs. Diniz
Jhonata Diniz, TKO, R1
Solid Heavyweight fight between two guys who could beat a few UFC fighters imo. Diniz is extremely young for the division and keeps improving but he was not given any favors with this fight. He is a solid striker with good volume and power. He always look for the finish from the beginning, so it will be interesting to see if he paces himself better against a guy as dangerous as Diniz. He has some tools in the ground which, even if they are not anything special, they are a relevant aspect of the fight. Diniz is a former Glory Kickboxer who throws decent volume and kicks. He is a massive dude and has amazing power (if he gets signed he would become a top 5 hardest striker in the UFC easily). His ground game is non existant, and if Neves takes it there somehow he will be in trouble, but that will likely not happen. This will likely be a striking fight, and if that´s the case Diniz should get this, probably with a highlight reel KO

Llontop vs. Lewis
James Llontop, TKO, R2
Poor Malik 2 bad asses both times on Dwcs

Matsumoto vs. Tanner
Jean Matsumoto, SUB, R1
Matsumoto gotta be my number 1 Brazilian prospect dude so young with so much experience 14-0 at 24 years old would be next level tanner a good prospect but got a very bad matchup Jean first round sub

Polastri vs. Alujas
Julia Polastri, DEC
Better Competition level pick is always smartest with women on Dwcs

Lewis vs Llontop 
Llontop KO RD 3

Lewis is coming back for his second run at a ufc contract. I really liked him on first watch but, rewatching for this time around I was not impressed with him. Lewis has a lot of tools to succeed; hes huge for 155, very lanky, fast, athletic, but he doesnt know how to put things together well. This really showed in his dwcs fight; he was the better fighter in every aspect but he pushed a pace he couldn’t maintain & peek broke him. Everything about lewis is too wild for me. He hits like a truck and is super fast, but theres also a lot of nervous energy presented in his striking. He kinda just flails his arms around trying to swarm you. He pushes forward to close the distance and everything seems rushed. He doesn’t fight technical at all; instead of using his range and speed to snipe his opponents, he starts brawling right away. His grappling is very similar. He tries to do the right thing and has a lot of athleticism (he can jump on the back with ease for example) but he rushes everything on the ground. He uses bodylock takedowns but rushes the finish so he usually ends up off balance or only half dragging them down. Even when he does get the back, he gets too over eager and doesn’t put the hooks in correctly, leading to the opponent scrambling out. He did a better job of staying composed in his last fight but you could see he was uncomfortable. His punches were still looping and he even got dropped by this 8-6 guy he was facing. His grappling still did not look good. He was able to get his opponent down but, it was due to the mistakes his opponents made more than the technique of lewis’s wrestling. Again, he does the right things in grappling exchanges but I simply dont think his grappling is at a ufc level. Even when he was finishing his opponent, he didnt listen to his corner. They were screaming for him to elbow & instead he just kept raining weak gnp shots. The fight got stopped but couldve been over much sooner if he had listened. I have been very harsh on the peruvians this season, but I quite like llontop. Unlike the other peruvian’s, Llontop comes from Peru’s best org and was a reigning champ there. So, hes fighting the best comp in Peru and has looked pretty good while doing it. He is a high paced striker who uses his technical skills to pick his opponents apart and wear them down. He doesn’t seem to be a power puncher but breaks his opponents with volume and pressure throughout the fight. His boxing is clean; he throws a lot of jabs to the head and mixes in body shots. Hes a very good counter striker, always throwing an elbow or a punch after a break in grappling (he likes to clinch a lot). Llontop also has some good head kicks he will mix in. I really like his body kicks; he rips them hard and with little telegraph. Llontop is really good at catching his opponents when they rush in. Malik tends to rush everything he does so I think Llontop’s counter striking is going to be very beneficial here. What does concern me with Llontop is the wrestling. Nobody from South America, besides brazil, can wrestle. Llontop likes to mix in wrestling & it looks okay but, you also have to factor in he is fighting people who also cannot wrestle. Llontop is going to have to be very careful throwing kicks (he has fallen to the ground off of kicks multiple times) and the clinch (he loves to clinch) as those are the two ways lewis gets this to the mat. He always jumps on his opponents when they slip up and his “wrestling” is in the form of weak bosy lock takedowns so Llontop must avoid the clinch. Even then, I think he can defend since Lewis has really bad grappling but it would make the fight a lot easier to avoid the clinch. Lewis has all the physical advantages here but he doesn’t know how to fight well. Llontop is a way better technical striker & fights more composed. Lewis will be able to make this ugly but I think the precision and cardio of Llontop gets it done here. He will be able to land the better shots and break lewis withhis body work. If lewis grapples he stands a good chance at winning but I think Llontop has good enough defense. It is defintely concerning seeing south american journeyman take his back tho. 

Cunningham vs Nguyen
 Nguyen KO RD 1

 Every Nguyen fight is the same; he walks you down constantly throwing straight punches and some leg kicks. He is a headhunter but, his hands are pretty quick and despite not being much nuance to his striking, it is effective. Nguyen has decent power but is not much of a finisher. His takedown defense and footwork are both pretty good as well. He also never slows down and is really comfortable in there; he is constantly being the aggressor and throwing punches, while also never backing down. I really wish he possessed more power. He is able to land a lot but nothing he lands really has a big effect. Nguyen has looked pretty good in all his fights. Even his loss to cruz was pretty competitive. He was winning the striking exchanges and the fight but a combination of the reach disadvantage & lack of head movement cost him the fight in the last few seconds. Nguyen is actually pretty skilled but theres just not flair to anything he does. He seems ufc level but not really sure where to place him; he still feels pretty green. Cunningham is just bad. If it wasn’t for being related to bryce, I dont think the ufc would even look twice at signing him. Cunningham is absolutely terrible. He is low volume but has decent power. The problem is, when he land he never follows up. He will throw leg kicks but even those dont do much & he also never checks kicks on top of that. Striking defense and output are just terrible. He also seems to only want to fight at a sparring pace, never pushes the issue or really fights in there. His wrestling mostly comes in the form of bodylock takedowns against the fence; however, he is not very strong and his technique is bad. When he does get on top hes not super active nor is his control great. He can also easily best outwrestled or reversed. The most concerning thing to me was his most recent fight. He won, but he got his back taken, mounted, and hit with a spinning elbow by a 6-4 fighter. If you want to last in the ufc, you cannot be going blow for blow against someone with that record. I think this should be very easy for Nguyen. On the feet, its steve all day. Nguyen is far more technical and will be able to hit AJ so easily. Nguyen has not gone for the kill on any of his dwcs fights but i think he will here. He has the ability to & he has to know that lack of killer instinct is what cost him last time. He also pushes a high pace and AJ does not do well when he can’t fight at his normal pace. 

Tanner vs Matsumoto  
Tanner DEC

One of the best fights this season & one of those matches that kinda sucks since both guys are super talented and deserving of ufc contracts. Despite only being 23, matsumoto has an insane amount of experience under his belt. He was won regional belts at both 125 & 135, along with multiple 5 round fights. Having all these 5 round fights makes him fight like a veteran. Matsumoto is primarily a striker, using his muay thai to control the feet. I wish he carried more power but maybe that will come along as he goes further in his career. His striking is basic yet effective. It doesnt look super flashy but he is very good at landing on his opponents and using his striking arsenal well. Matsumoto also has really good cardio so he is able to keep the output and pressure going the whole fight. Matsumoto has pretty good wrestling both offensively and defensively. He doesnt use his wrestling as much as i would like but it is very effective when he does. Matsumoto also has a signature guillotine choke; hes not like a saimon oliviera where its his only move but when he gets ahold of the neck he will attack it. What I like the most about jean is the fight iq; hes so young but he understands everything. He knows when to wrestle, when to counter, when to stay calm & similarly when to let it all out, just does everything well. This being said, he is still relatively green; to be expected at 23. One thing i dont like is his striking defense. He does move his head but his style leads to him getting hit a lot. He is very good at counter punching and landing turning chaotic moments but he takes a lot of hits in his fights. The other issue is takedown defense. He can wrestle decently well but a really good wrestler (like tanner) will give him issues. He looks improved in every fight as well, so I expect to see the best version of him on this episode. Kasey tanner is another very highly touted prospect, albeit not one that is talked about much. Tanner has had a lot of trouble finding opponents & has been sidelined with injuries, thus taking away a lot of time. Hes 31 now and definitely in his prime so this is likely hsi last shot. Tanner many not have an as impressive looking record as matsumoto but he is really good as well. Tanner is primarily a wrestler but he does have pretty decent striking. Tanners wrestling is very good; he comes from a folkstyle background and has integrated it very well into mma. His control is pretty good and he knows how to win minutes with his grappling. Meaning, he throws strikes from the top and will look to finish with submissions. Kasey isn’t just a guy who looks to take the back and get an RNC. He will attack all kinds of submissions. Kasey’s striking has improved a lot. He has actually learned pretty good kickboxing skills and is nto afraid to strike with his opponents. Kasey knows where he is best so he starts out striking and then mixes in his wrestling with well timed attempts. What I like the most about Kasey is even though hes been inactive, he has shown improvements every time he fights. This fight is really close to me but I think the wrestling of tanner is what wins him this fight. Matsumoto can get back to his feet but his wrestling is definitely one of his weak points. He is a much better striker than tanner but I dont like his striking defense. I give the advantage standing to matsumoto but I wouldnt totally count out tanner. I think he is gonna mix in his wrestling and win moments with his control. Hes also really going to make matsumoto work to get back to his feet; tanner’s scrambling ability is so good, hes like super glue on the mat. Kasey doesn’t have incredible cardio tho so if matsumoto is able to make him work for takedowns, he could get up finishing a gassed tanner.

Neves vs Diniz 
Diniz KO RD 1

Really surprised this isnt the main event. Ufc loves heavyweights & this is the one time were actually getting two quality fighters facing one another. Neves has a lot going for him as far as heavyweights go. He is insaenly young at only 22 years old, so thats a big positive right there. Striking seems on par for a heavyweight; hes fast, hes powerful, the usual. Like any heavyweight, the flaws are very clear for neves. For one, he has terrible defense. He is a guy who throws down and is not scared of being hit. Hes not chinny but you do not want to get hit as a heavyweight. My other main issue with neves is something that can be easily fixed; his lack of experience. Neves lost on dwcs by making dumb mistakes. He was really destroying parkin everywhere but he didnt manage his gas tank & paid for it. He was doing great until he threw those dumb spinning elbows & just completely death gassed and gave up. Even watching his most recent fight, theres still an evident lack of experience. After hurting silva badly, instead of using gnp neves attempted a heel hook. I could write a novel on why you should never ever attack heel hooks so ill refrain myself here but, that was a big nono to me. He was able to keep silva grounded and get the finish but i did not like to see that. However, like i said, these are things that will be easily fixed with mma experience. However, for once in his career, neves is actually going to be the guy with experience. Diniz does come from an extensive kickboxing background, but he is green in mma. He only started last year & while he has looked flawless, he has also never been tested or extended past the first. Like I said in previous weeks, when you finish people so easily theres no concerns, just questions. Diniz hasnt given me anything to be worried about but of course im wondering if he can grapple, if he has cardio, if he can deal being the nail, etc. But man, his tape is ******* impressive. He has highlight reel murdered everyone hes fought thus far. As is expected, he has translated his kickboxing background very well into mma. ONe thing that really stands out to me is his power. All HW’s have power but diniz has nukes for hands. If youve seen his KB/MT fights, this guy was putting people out with 12 oz gloves so the fact hes doing the same thing in mma is crazy. What I also really like is he has actually adapted his striking to mma. A lot of KB guys this season (yousri and salvador specifically) had good standup but had awful boxing and only just leg kicks. Diniz is not scared to let his hands go at all and he will of course also mix in kicks. One bad thing about diniz is level of comp. Now, i dont imagine many people on the regional scene are rushing to fight this guy, but his competition thus far is awful. His last fight he fought an obese bum who was massively undersized and the guy literally just quit after 4 minutes of punishment. Outside of the obvious dive, hes just killed a bunch of jobbers. However, the skills are definitely there i just thought thats worth noting. Its heavyweight mma so anything can happen but imo neves will need to wrestle here to win. Sure, hes fast and hits hard but diniz is a better striker than the majority of heavyweights out there. Neves also gets hit way too much for my liking; sure, he could pressure and swarm diniz but diniz knows how to defend and counter well. If diniz wins & answers some of my questions about him, I think he could be one hell of a prospect at 265.  

Polastri vs Alujas  
Polastri SUB RD 2

I did not bother to watch tape on alujas because who cares. All i saw was shes from paraguay & that says all you need to know. Polastri got done dirty last time around on dwcs; she had never fought at 125 before & took a fight against a very big, very strong wrestler. She actually had her moments against jasmine & we’ve seen how good jasmine has looked recently. Since that loss, polastri has been looking really good. Granted, shes been fighting cans but her comp is far superior to whatever alujas is fighting in paraguay. At 115, polastri is so much better; she should look really good here & im expecting a finish.

* Edited at 09.09.2023, 2:27 PM ET *

Another week of trying to predict this nonsense.

Neves vs. Diniz
Jhonata Diniz, TKO, R1
Most confident in the KO/round 1 part

Silenced thath guys don't KNOW nothing

ONLY waste moneyy THAT guys haha

really funny SINGLE fans🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

if u never join octagon u don't KNOW nothing 

Bro are you drunk? Go to sleep.

Llontop vs. Lewis
James Llontop, TKO, R2
Damn what a fight

Matsumoto vs. Tanner
Jean Matsumoto, DEC
Been following Mataumoto for a couple of years now. I hope he’s able to pull it out

Polastri vs. Alujas
Julia Polastri, DEC
Leaning Polastri since Alujas only

Cunningham vs. Nguyen
Steven Nguyen, DEC
Cunningham has a lot more experience, but Nguyen is 1-1 on DWCS. Sad to say but there’s better Featherweights out there. I know the UFC is an American promotion, but why not bring more Russian FW’s over? There’s roughly 80 FW’s currently signed to the UFC, but only 2 of them are Russian. Same goes for Lightweight. There’s roughly 95-96 155ers on the UFC roster but only 2 are from Russia.

* Edited at 09.11.2023, 9:41 AM ET *

Llontop vs. Lewis
James Llontop, TKO, R2
Goku over here seems like he's got something going for him. Twice the pro fights as Lewis, and 4 of his last 5 have been KO/TKO. Half of Lewis's entire win catalogue are cans or journeymen.

Cunningham vs. Nguyen
AJ Cunningham
Ngyuen seems to have more of a penchant for finding the finish, but he's been too inactive for my tastes. This oughta be a good fight.

Matsumoto vs. Tanner
Jean Matsumoto, SUB, R2
Look man, it's kinda hard to not wank an undefeated Brazilian prospect that has 10+ wins when he's fighting a guy that hasn't fought in a year and a half.

Neves vs. Diniz
Eduardo Neves
Based on their records, Eduardo's fought people at a higher caliber. Experience isn't as big a factor in this one, but Diniz has a very padded 5-0.

Polastri vs. Alujas
Julia Polastri, SUB, R1
Patricia's a can crusher, Julia's actually fighting ladies that can throw down. No-brainer on paper but anything can happen.

Every1 made weight this time around

My last DWCS was ...horrible ...and somehow I'm still here trying to make senses out of the nonsense but its part of the fun I guess.
If we go by "tapology statistic" we have 24 fights so far this year with 46% average of the underdogs (tapology not favorite to win, nothing to do with the casino odds) it means at least a minimum 2 out of 5 fighters considered underdogs will win.
So keep this in mine when your making your picks  .

I have Llontop and Nguyen winning this time, the doubt I have is that DINIZ seems like a false favorite to me.

Yep , strange card its seems like all favorites should win , only dogs I see its  Eduardo Neves    and  AJ Cunningham  

Neves was gassed 2 minutes into the Parkins fight after having him hurt. He gets knocked out Rd 1.