Contender Series 2023: Week 6

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Kinda strange that the props are lower on the sub than the Ko since he got 6 ko 1 sub 🤔

Llontop vs. Lewis
Malik Lewis, TKO, R2
peru MMA is just not it.

It's kind of interesting that Peru seems to be the #2 pipeline to the UFC from South America rn. I wonder if any of them will actually pan out

@Corleone 

always go with your gut feeling(more reliable). 

Llontop vs. Lewis
James Llontop, DEC
Llontop survives first round, and starts getting points and points to end by DEC

Neves vs. Diniz
Jhonata Diniz, TKO, R2
Diniz kickboxing is elite, he wins if he avoids takedowns

Cunningham vs. Nguyen
AJ Cunningham, DEC
I pick AJ cause odds at 3 make no sense

Polastri vs. Alujas
Julia Polastri, TKO, R2
Polastri has to dominate, I am expecting her to come get that contract by getting a savage KO

Matsumoto vs. Tanner
Jean Matsumoto, DEC
More experience, Tanner good gym but still he fighted easy opponents.

Jean Matsumoto via TKO /// ML = EVEN , KO = +800.
Idk I'm just feeling Mastumoto's thai kicks to the body are pretty crazy despite his low KO rate, but Tanner has been fighting cans and grapplers and won't be able to handle the body damage and will leave his head open for a clean KO.

Julia Poastri via Sub /// ML = -550 , Inside Distance -115
Completely different level of fighter in this one. Poastri's striking is going to be better and Alujas only chance to win is to KO or DEC. Poastri can finish either sub or ko and the ko is +500. I think this fight will result in Poastri getting a knockdown or a takedown and she will bully Alujas on the ground to the point of no return.

Steve Nguyen via Dec /// ML = -275, Dec = +130
Nguyen has a pretty high strike count potential from what we've seen on Contender Series so far, and pretty decent takedown defense. He comes, from a better gym, while Cunningham's competition has been lacking. Nguyen has better training opportunities and will be more well-rounded. Cunningham's best competition are all like 1-2 fights away from becoming 500 fighters.

Eduardo Neves via KO /// ML = +115 , KO = +275
Neves is dangerous. Even in his loss to to Mick Parkins he managed to get 2 takedowns. Jhonata Diniz is an experienced kickboxer who has been beating up cans with either no experience or with a lot of losses already and is 9 years older than Neves. Neves can still get KO'd, but I'm leaning on a TD and GnP finish.

Split

Malik Lewis via Dec /// ML = +140, Dec = +600
Malik Lewis's last fight against Silva was pretty wild, but the one thing that I did not like was Lewis's terrible ground n pound despite being in great positions. If he doesn't catch Llontop early, I'm afraid he either has to grind a decision boxing and try to get 1-2 takedowns. (Malik claims he was sick during his contender series fight and gasses quicker than he should *shrug*)

James Llontop via Dec /// ML  = -170, Dec = +300
Llontop sets a pace, and bullies his competition until they start to slow down and the opportunities start so show themselves. He has decent takedowns, and like to trip against the cage but I don't think it'll work until the 2nd half of the fight.

Fight Goes the Distance is +175
Over 1.5 Rds is -165

The matchmaking is getting lazier each season with these guys. They do MMA math when picking fighters for this show now instead of properly scouting imo.
 

A 2 piece dinner with biscuits 

Kasey Tanner- Submission 
Eduardo Neves- TKO

People are talking about Kasey Tanner in this forum like he has a lot of experience. I understand he's basically in his prime and is at one of the better gyms, but this dude Jean Matsumoto has fought pretty experienced Brazilian dudes. I think it's just too big of a hill to climb to go from 6 fights against bums to a dude that has beaten decent talent. The winner should be signed no matter what tho. Once again, I think we could go w/out Nguyen or Cunningham in the UFC. Let them be .500 fighters in the PFL or Bellator instead. I would like to see Llontop win and get a card in Peru eventually too. That would make 7 Peruvian fighters in the UFC which would be the about the same amount as Ireland, New Zealand, Korea, Japan, Poland, and France

Neves vs. Diniz
Eduardo Neves, TKO, R1
I'm surprised 2/3 of Tap is picking the can crusher over the bonafide LFA talent. It's heavyweight so it could go either way but one of these guys has been through the fire and come out the other side, Diniz hasn't even been tested in mma and he's older and has taken more damage because of kickboxing

https://wobbld.wordpress.com/grid-of-posts-4x2/

I'm done with my analysis .

First time I will not go with any dogs  

Good luck all

https://wobbld.wordpress.com/2023/09/12/ufc-293-excuses-excuses/

Llontop vs. Lewis
Malik Lewis, TKO, R2
Battle of the face tat! I'll take the American who seems a bit more menacing.

Neves vs. Diniz
Jhonata Diniz, TKO, R1
Neves didn't look great in his last DWCS fight, and Diniz can snipe him here with the past kickboxing experience. Its a heavyweight fight at the end of the day so maybe this is the upset of the week that ruins the bet slips.

Cunningham vs. Nguyen
Steven Nguyen, DEC
Better gym for "the ninja", but dont favor the lack of competition in the last few years. I expect a much closer fight than the odds suggest.

Polastri vs. Alujas
Julia Polastri, SUB, R1
Paraguay MMA? No thanks.

Matsumoto vs. Tanner
Kasey Tanner, DEC
Line flip! Hopefully not the same result as last week but I'll take the older guy out of the superior gym, should be a close and fun fight.

Think the Heavyweight scrap between the two Brazilians goes into either the 2nd or even 3rd Round, but despite Diniz's Kickboxing credentials, I just see the slightly more experienced in MMA Fighter Eduardo Neves, setting the pace, looking to mix in takedowns throughout the fight and applying constant pressure on Diniz against the Cage, especially with some dirty Boxing and eventually having much success... I see a G N P Finish to the contest in Neves favour, but I appreciate he has to use clever fight IQ to close down the distance, en route to forcing his fight and controlling the pace, which will also assist with his Gas tank... Should be a decent Heavyweight prospects scrap... Neves needs to look to take Diniz into deep waters, in order to slowly drown him over the duration of the contest🤔💯🥊🥊👊

* Edited at 09.12.2023, 6:56 PM ET *

Neves vs. Diniz
I feel disposed to Jhonata Diniz at -160. He has a macabre reverse frankensteiner. Diniz will unsettle the enemy.

Polastri vs. Alujas
I prefer Julia Polastri at -420. She has a wondrous tsuri-dashi and a kempt crotch-hold. Polastri can lock the natural order.

Llontop vs. Lewis
I fancy James Llontop at -175. He has a kinky check hook. Llontop can kiss the rival.

Cunningham vs. Nguyen
I choose Steven Nguyen at -245. He has a groundbreaking harai goshi. Nguyen is gonna terminate the cake. Acertar na mosca!

Matsumoto vs. Tanner
I tap Jean Matsumoto at -150. He has an integral mounted elbow drop and a quintessential suplex. Matsumoto could handle the feat.

one of my favorite things to do as of late is coming on here and reading paragraphs about a contender series fighter wining and then watching the complete opposite happen hahahahahhah

Welp topology picks have been mid to crap lately for DWCS. I’m going with the guy from Peru and fading the girl from Paraguay

Let’s go contender series 

Ew Lllontop has FFC tattooed on his neck. Why would you put a regional promotion on your body like that?