Contender Series 2022: Week 4

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Every fight tonight is a toss up except the ribovics fights

I agree, if Cartwright hadn’t looked so **** last fight I would expect him to run through Johnson but now idk 

I find it funny how the UFC is trying to promote Jack Cartwright by showing him winning a fight by DQ, On a best finishes by contender series fighting this week

It be like promoting Sterling by showing  the ending of the first Petr Yan on a best finishes by UFC champion video

Jose Johnson is 10x better than his record. I honestly think he just took fights he probably wasn't ready for early in his career that gave him the experience to beat these top prospects

For my tonight picks, I used some subjective analysis, because being realistic beyond Cartwright most of his fights have been in Cage Warriors, Cowan who has fought almost all his fights in LFA or Undefeated and Johnson who has had fights in Fury FC and DWCS . The vast majority of fighters in this event have had a career that is unknown to the vast majority of tapology pickers (included me):





1- Hassanzada via UD Hassanzada's LFA debut was impressive considering the fact that he was a +240 underdog and managed to clearly beat Wilson who had a 4-0 record. Sadykhov has KO wins and training at Serra-Longo is synonymous with constantly working with good grapplers. But I choose Hassanzada by decision, he seems quite complete in all aspects (Striking, wrestling and grappling) and Ahmad has more experience on big stages.





2- Cowan UD. I usually think Average Brazilian WMMA > Average USA WMMA. But Leite level is a real unknown, she could look good as Karine Silva in DWCS or look like Julia Polastri against Jasudavicius. Cowan has just recovered from a very spectacular defeat, but his career has been more visible so his level is not unknown and he has the height and reach advantage and in WMMA this is generally a very determining factor, so if Cowan avoids being trapped in a guillotine I think she can take the win.




3- Cartwright SUB. Before his upset win against Mo Miller, people categorized Jose Johnson as a total bad fighter. Cartwright is a former Cage Warriors champion and wrestling is one of Johnson's biggest struggles. I pick Cartwright to win by sub/decision. Maybe Cartwright looked bad in his last fight, but to beat Johnson he just needs to look for takedowns and avoid triangle or armbar attempts on the ground.





4- Valenzuela UD. This fight is likely to be a slugfest and even largely for the judges. Valenzuela seems to be a bigger fast starter and Ribeiro isn't as good defensively. Of course, Ribeiro is emerging as the most durable with respect to his cardio and having a very good jaw. A Landwahr vs. Onama: where one fighter is dominant in the first round and the fight totally changes at the start of the second round. Still I pick Valenzuela to win a decision where Dana White will probably take the stance of the Altamirano vs. Calendario.


5- Ribovics by KO. Paull has an inspiring story behind him and this is his big chance to get into the UFC so the fight will probably be competitive for as long as it lasts. Despite this, I see Ribovics above and considered that he will be able to catch Paull at the beginning of the second round. My favorites to win the contract are Ribovics and Cartwright.

* Edited at 08.16.2022, 7:47 PM ET *

The nice thing about contender series fights is that you can be sure there will be finish’s in most fights. Week one of this season was the outlier of all outliers

The fights are usually awesome too. I’m very excited for this one

* Edited at 08.16.2022, 6:56 PM ET *

Sadykhov vs. Hassanzada
I am all about Nazim Sadykhov at -175. He has a jingoistic approach. Sadykhov shall choke the ring announcer. I bet my life on it!

Paull vs. Ribovics
I trust Esteban Ribovics at -250. He has a xerophthalmic touch of death. Ribovics should seize the Octagon.

Cartwright vs. Johnson
Jose Johnson, TKO, R1
Watch out for Johnson

Sadykhov vs. Hassanzada
Nazim Sadykhov, DEC
USA

Paull vs. Ribovics
Esteban Ribovics, SUB, R2
Esteban

Ribeiro vs. Valenzuela
Iván Valenzuela, TKO, R2
Don't know on this one. Ivan seems to have more ways to win.

Cartwright vs. Johnson
Jack Cartwright, SUB, R2
If jack gets thru the first he should hold up.

Cowan vs. Leite
Cláudia Leite, TKO, R2
She looks better almost everwhere. Hailey does not seem to have good defense on the feet, and I she doesn't have the best footwork. Claudia is a little more fluid. forsure the better kicker, and seems she will have the strength advantage.

Sadykhov vs. Hassanzada
Ahmad Suhail Hassanzada, TKO, R1
Ahmad has the stand up. Hes shown a more diverse striking arsenal and should get the better of the exchanges. He starts early as well. I think his chances of winning drop in the later rounds if he can't keep his gas tank.

I'm rolling with Tapology on this one for Cartwright at even money but his line did go from -400 at opening all the way to an underdog so I'm not sure what the heck is happening there.  When that much line movement happens in other sports, it usually means a star player is injured or not playing but not sure how that concept applies to MMA.  

Not sure if there is that much money being placed on this card either, it's not some star studded UFC PPV so the line movement on each of these fights have been very interesting.  

Leite is legit and Paull is live.

I'm going to regret not picking Cartwright but that betting line movement terrified me. I also just thought he looked like an absolute string bean at weigh ins. Oh well. If I'm a dumb dumb so be it. 

I have no idea what the line movement is about. I figured he was gonna be a massive favorite; he’s a hyped up prospect 

46% of y’all are picking a fighter out of Astra Fight Team… I’ll eat my words if she wins but that’s bold as hell

Not sure why everyone is going on about the Cartwright line so much. 
You do know that it was at - 400 for less than 15 minutes yeah??
Opened at 19.08 - 400 by 19.22 it was - 160.

Fight time ladies