UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

It’s literally fact that it a one week break,  today is the 21 of May in the US, and the Volkov vs Rozenstuck card is on June 4 in the US, I personally find it ******** when people downvote facts, like why get mad at facts, it just facts, 

* Edited at 05.21.2022, 3:33 PM ET *

Holm vs. Vieira
Holly Holm, DEC
So we still getting Holly Holm 5 round main events in 2022? Almost certainly a 25 minute full of the finest circling around the cage, throwing 5 punch combos that brutalise the air and don't forget all the Kiyahing and screams of "AIEESHH!!!!!!" Amazing!

Ponzinibbio vs. Pereira
Santiago Ponzinibbio, TKO, R2
Ponz is going to send this Backflipping Fool to hell!!!!

Njokuani vs. Todorović
Chidi Njokuani, TKO, R1
Dusko lack of head movement is going to get him cracked hard, early! My only worry is that if Dusko survives the 1st. All it takes is 1 takedown and this fight shifts completely. Still I'm sticking with Chidi but I wouldn't be putting actual money on him

Viana vs. Ricci
Tabatha Ricci, DEC
MMA simps in heaven!

Porter vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R1
Is Jailton move to Heavyweight permanent???

Morales vs. Medic
Omar Morales, SUB, R2
I just can't back anyone who came up in Alaska Bum Fights FC!!!!

Martinez vs. Morales
Jonathan Martinez, DEC
Reeealy like Martinez here.

Am I drunk or is the Tapology fist moving?

God I'm so ready for Tabatha Ricci!

Progressive parlay for the card ....

Holm ml + Holmes ml (+110)

I know Holly is 40 but unless the difference is drastic I think hollys use of keeping range is going to just pick apart veira. That's also going to stop any take down attempts, and even so holly has good tdd. When I watch the Tate fight, she doesn't move in and out of the pocket very good like holm does. And even then Tate out struck her. If I had a feeling that viera was a real contender than yeah I lay off of Holmes, but she really isnt. 

Unless amed just turns over a new leaf outta nowhere this will be easy for Holmes. Jotko was able to wrestle **** him, and jotko does that to nobody. The only path for amed is his big wild swinging ko but the problem is Holmes has good defense and a great chin. Also Dana's looking for a fight guys, Holmes and Ogden, both lost their debuts, so I think they wanna not look stupid and get them wins (look forward to Ogden being paired with a bum). Unless amed can ko early with the wild, guy odd the street, not technical brawling..,...I see a club and sub from Holmes early. Somehow or another Holmes should finish or clearly win 2 or 3 out of 3 rounds. 


Add Omar morales (-140)

This is a lot like the holmes fight but I think this is much closer of a skill gap, that being said, uros needs a ko early and morales has shown great chin. Also back up to his proper weight class. He's good defensively enough to chew away at medic. I just think uros and amed are both just too wild to compete on this level. I can see morales cruising to decision or finishing 

Add Alameda round 1 or 2 (-200)

Almeida is a future 205 contender for sure. He absolutely deserves to be a favorite. Cool porter won, against like the literal 3 worst heavyweights. Him being 40lbs bigger of fat won't save him. Also fun fact about porters durability..... nobody has ever attempted takedown against him in UFC. Wait until jailton does. Being 225 also didn't stop Chris daukaus (same style as porter) from completely merking him. I just really really have a hard time thinking any weight advantage for porter is enough to stop what's coming. 

Add reed by split dec (+550)

At this point, we already cashed most of the risk, and just 2 smaller bets for crazy odds. But tbh I feel good about this bet. I ****** wish bovada offered "fight ends in split dec" because that's what this would be. But since I have to pick a side I gotta go with reed. She has striking advantage, pretty good tdd, And active off bottom, but I think most is going to be at distance and reed will win the split that could go either way. Also have theory that "high rollers" have judges in pockets, not always, but kinda like "hey if it's close and goes to dec, and you make it go my way, you might just wind up with $15k cash in your mailbox" and following the money, the big bets came in early on reed. So after seeing stats and justifying them with tape, and that, I gotta go with the reed side. But hey, Hughes by split +900 not bad

Add ponzinibo by split dec (+1000)

A lot of the former leg, but with less confidence that someone doesn't get finished. Should be competitive. But when I look at the stat measures I care about, and comparing competition level, have to side with ponz. Very suspicious that he is smaller frame and older now though, but I feel if he fights like he did Neal, he can edge out close split.

Holm vs. Vieira
Holly Holm, DEC
Looks like another one for Holm.

Ponzinibbio vs. Pereira
Santiago Ponzinibbio, DEC
I think Santiago can figure out this crazy puzzle.

Njokuani vs. Todorović
Chidi Njokuani, TKO, R1
I like Chidi's odds for a quick night.

Viana vs. Ricci
Polyana Viana, DEC
Tough one to call. Gimme Viana.

Anders vs. Park
Eryk Anders, DEC
Gimme Anders.

Holmes vs. Amedovski
Joseph Holmes, SUB, R2
Holmes should get back on track....

Porter vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R1
Pretty good chance Almeida makes this easy...

Morales vs. Medic
Omar Morales, DEC
I think Omar can weather the early storm and roll.

good to see no Bisping

Post time!!!

As per usual I am ready to get the first fight of the night wrong

I don’t want to touch the fight in general, I would rather have money on the +125 bum then the -180 can. But I do think Hughes is more of a can and I rather have more money to bet on Hughes

Also, Hughes by decsion is +220, don’t really want to touch that either 

Seeing almost everyone on Reed by decision is making me more nervous. lol

Hughes can wrestle to a victory like her last outing. I just thought Reed’s last performance was against better level of competition. There’s a bunch of low confidence picks for me here tonight  

Hughes will win because I didn’t pick her, that’s how WMMA works

I don't think Reed has a significant advantage over Hughes on the feet.

Of course Sam Hughes got some evil ass Disney music.