UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

My expectations: I got Puna cashing the 60 sec KO (+800) today, KO any time (+120) is one of my favorite picks today. Maximov is low level and it'll get exposed today.

I got a strong feeling that Carlston, Casteneda, or both will win as a dog. Stoliarenko is a candidate as well but I don't want anything to do with her. At least she didn't faint at the weigh ins, so if you take her, you have a good shot.

Potential traps to lose $ : 1) Almeida losing a grappling match to a grappling brazilian UFC vet that is +300 or more. 2) Brendan Allen off of eating his kid's fruit snack and no fight camp to prepare for Slow Smilin Sam, potentially getting tired late and losing a late decision 3) Jack Hermansson and the ankle lock prayer 4) Is Erosa really -300??? ( I think no, but i have him winning) 

The overhyped narratives that will get put to bed today: 1) Puna's Cardio- Puna got abused by Brendan Allen, no doubt, BUT Puna landed about 50 power shot to head of Allen, about 47 more than Maximov will be able to take. Also Puna took about 30 body kicks from Allen in that fight and another 30 knees and punches, that is more of why his cardio failed in that fight. 2) Miles Johns is a favorite in every fight- Miles Johns' alligator arms and overextending on punches might just get him sniped tonight. 3) Derek Brunson and Cannionier are guaranteed a title shot after their fight- Sean Strickland will have something to say about that after tonight. Cannonier and Brunson could very well be fighting Marvin next if the rematch vs Paulo doesn't get done.

Hermansson vs Strickland


Strickland, Decision


Close fight and Hermansson can definitely win by submission as we haven't seen much of Strickland's grappling, especially at  this level in the middleweight division.  Hermansson is tough as we saw in the Vettori fight but isn't the greatest striker. If Hermansson isn't able to get takedowns consistently on Strickland he is gonna be in for a long night. Strickland may not have the power to put Hermansson away in one shot like Cannonier or even as much as Vettori for that matter but Hermansson's in and out movement and wider strikes is perfect for Strickland who likes to counter and throws most of his punches down the middle. Although possible I think Hermansson is too tough to be finished and will most likely lose a decision.


Alvey vs Allen


Allen, Submission Round 2

On paper this is an easy fight for Brendan Allen but we have learned two things about him recently1 he has a suspect chin and 2 he has poor fight I.Q. Brendan Allen has all the tools to be a future contender in the middleweight division but it seems his poor fight I.Q is consistently hurting him even in fights he wins. How this fight goes all depends on Allen's approach does he let his ego get the best of him and try to knock out Alvey to try and show people his improving striking and his chin isn't as questionable as some believe it is or will he take the smart approach and try to use his striking just as a set up to create a grappling exchange so he can work on getting to Alvey's back and attacking with a RNC which is how he finishes most of his fights. I think Allen knows what needs to be done in this fight, the only chance Alvey has of winning is a lucky punch since most of the time Alvey doesn't throw. enough strikes to win by decision so why give him that chance.

* Edited at 02.05.2022, 11:23 AM ET *

Erosa vs. Peterson
Julian Erosa, SUB, R2
Let's go juicy j

@PlusmoneyGod

Do me a favor n shut your fcking mouth

Johns vs. Castañeda
Miles Johns, DEC
Entertaining fight but should be a relatively easy win for Johns who is due for a step up in competition.

Barriault vs. Njokuani
Chidi Njokuani, DEC
Surprised to see so many people taking Barriault in this fight. None of Barriault's wins are UFC level. Chidi is the much cleaner striker and will also have a 7inch reach advantage to use to his advantage against Barriault who only knows how to go forward. Njokuani will most likely use jabs and low kicks to slow down Barriault looking to catch him with a big shot as he presses forward. Chidi could put Barriault out in the mid to late rounds but will more likely win a unanimous decision utilizing footwork, angles, his jab and low kicks.

Barriault will get a hold of njokuani 

Pooh bear is one of the worst nicknames of all time. Completely ruins the marketable name of Bryan Battle. 

Njokuani LOCK?

Y E S 

card looks fun

Hermansson vs. Strickland
Sean Strickland, DEC
I think Strickland is just awkward enough, and just bull-headed enough, to walk through damage and keep throwing that jab out there. Hermansson has the wrestling edge but I think it's over-rated, and Strickland is good at jumping right back up.

Soriano vs. Maximov
Punahele Soriano, TKO, R1
There are levels and while I don't rate Soriano highly, Maximov has shown nothing yet. He has good wrestling and zero pressure or danger on top. I think he's been rushed along as a favor to Team Diaz.

Rakhmonov vs. Harris
Shavkat Rakhmonov, TKO, R2
I could see this finishing by TKO or sub, but I lean sub. I think Rakhmonov is a legit contender as he continues to improve.

Alvey vs. Allen
Brendan Allen, DEC
Allen should win, Alvey is old and slow, but I don't like Allen's fight-iq and I actually bet on Alvey. On Tapology we don't get odds so I'll go with the most likely outcome.

Battle vs. Gore
Bryan Battle, SUB, R1
Lots of unknowns here, and Battle is very hittable, but I like how aggressive he is when he attacks submissions.

Erosa vs. Peterson
Julian Erosa, DEC
I don't like the weight miss, and Erosa is a dog, but I think Peterson can make this dirty enough to make it close. Another one where I bet Peterson, but only because of the odds.

Barriault vs. Njokuani
Marc-André Barriault, DEC
Barriault isn't flashy or anything but he moves at the same speed, and he moves forward, the entire fight. I don't think Njokuani has the power to make him stop and I think his wearing style gets him the decision.

Marques vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R2
I'm not as hyped on Almeida as everyone else seems to be, and this fight has the potential to devolve into two tired bjj guys grappling with each other.

Gordon vs. Bondar
Denys Bondar, SUB, R1
I bet this one pretty heavy and I don't really see any other result as being very likely.

Davis isn't a reliable pick, but im counting on her to drag Julija into a decision win

I agree and have her in a parlay …. But I didn’t like how much bigger Stoli looked than her. Seems to matter more in WMMA

Hermansson vs. Strickland
Sean Strickland, DEC
feeling like strickland's pressure will be enough to prevent jack from getting too much off. will be interesting to see what happens if they scramble though because that's where jack would figure to have his advantages.

Soriano vs. Maximov
Punahele Soriano, TKO, R1
maximov gets dropped and nick diaz throws in the towel.

Rakhmonov vs. Harris
Shavkat Rakhmonov, SUB, R2
excited for this one even though i kinda hate that they've been matched up so early in their ufc careers. guess i'll say nomad lands harder and follows to the ground for a rnc?

Alvey vs. Allen
Brendan Allen, TKO, R2
brendan allen knows he really needs this win after being upset by curtis and that losing to alvey here seriously hurts his stock moving forward so i'm expecting a hard push.

Battle vs. Gore
Bryan Battle, DEC
best name matchup since bang vs kuntz. gonna stick with my initial feeling that bryan battle's length can keep him safe outside and that he has the ability to win the clinch affairs too.

Erosa vs. Peterson
Julian Erosa, DEC
could be a very lucrative night for erosa if this ends up being fotn like it very well could be considering i think he'd get peterson's bonus too because of the weight miss. both guys have negative records for decisions, but also tough to finish, so i'm gonna say it's a 15 min firefight.

Johns vs. Castañeda
Miles Johns, DEC
feel like this one is closer than pick % & odds have it, i can see why johns is a favorite, but anything but a lock. it's really just johns' success on scorecards that have me siding with him vs castenada's 5-4 on scorecards.

Dawodu vs. Trizano
Mike Trizano, DEC
i'm gonna go underdog here and say trizano stays all the way out in kicking range or all the way in against the cage for clinch and trips.

Barriault vs. Njokuani
Marc-André Barriault, DEC
barriault might not have any subs, but i still feel like he'll be better in tight quarters here and be able to drag it down.

Davis vs. Stoliarenko
Alexis Davis, DEC
julija always goes for it hard, but i feel like davis can keep it a more technical battle standing and avoid the armbar if it hits the ground.

Marques vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, TKO, R1
agreeing with oddsmakers here, marques' ufc wins have been over very unimpressive competition so i think this is an attempt to build a hw prospect in almeida.

Witt vs. Rowe
Jason Witt, DEC
cosce was all over rowe in r1, i don't think a far more seasoned witt is gonna wilt like that so i'll take the slight dog. although putting the word "wilt" in that sentence has me feeling apprehensive considering it's only 1 letter off...

Gordon vs. Bondar
Denys Bondar, TKO, R2
wanna say that gordon can surprise people here with his grappling, but i'm not gonna stick my neck out for him.

No I also have a feeling Hermansson is live though I picked Strickland here. I have to distance myself from that fight though betting-wise because I'm from Sweden, can't be completely objective on this one.

Hermansson vs. Strickland
Sean Strickland, DEC
Both guys are very good but I have to pick Strickland in this spot. He has very good takedown defense and I think Hermansson will just keep spamming takedowns and Sean will pick him apart on the feet.

Soriano vs. Maximov
Punahele Soriano, TKO, R1
Soriano starches Maximov easily. Everyone that trains with the Diaz brothers aren't very good and act way tougher than they are.

Rakhmonov vs. Harris
Shavkat Rakhmonov, DEC
I truly don't know who to pick in this fight. Harris is so good but I think Rakhmonov is as legit as they come. It'll go go a decision because I don't think Harris will get subbed or knocked out.

Alvey vs. Allen
Brendan Allen, DEC
Allen is overrated at this point, but I can't back Alvey. Alvey is a cool guy and I wish him nothing but the best but his UFC run should've ended longgggg ago.

Battle vs. Gore
Bryan Battle, SUB, R3
Battle will drag Gore into deep waters and submit him. Everyone is overrating Gore and underrating Battle.

Erosa vs. Peterson
Julian Erosa, SUB, R2
Erosa has chin problems, but Peterson is trash. Erosa is extremely talented he just can't eat a punch. Erosa wins anyway he wants. Peterson doesn't have the KO power to finish Julian.

Johns vs. Castañeda
Miles Johns, DEC
I think we will see Johns use his wrestling this time and win a decision. I wouldn't be shocked if Castañada wins though but Johns is better.

Dawodu vs. Trizano
Hakeem Dawodu, DEC
Hakeem should get the win here but Trizano is so underrated. Trizano could look to go for some takedowns here but it'll most likely be a striking match.

Barriault vs. Njokuani
Marc-André Barriault, DEC
Barriault will beat Njokuani. Barriault is tough as nails and is really talented as well. Njokuani is good but he's in for a tough test here.

Davis vs. Stoliarenko
Alexis Davis, DEC
Davis is a scrappy vet that'll make this look easy. Stoliarenko won't get a fluke arm-bar in this spot.

Marques vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, TKO, R1
Ground and pound coming for Almeida. Marques is ass.

Witt vs. Rowe
Philip Rowe, TKO, R1
First shot Rowe throws will hurt Witt. Witt can only wrestle and he's not going to be able to do that for 15 minutes.

Gordon vs. Bondar
Denys Bondar, SUB, R3
Gordon will gas out and Bondar will sub him. Goodbye Gordon.

@dvla99 I agree on Harris. He won me money last fight, as I couldn’t believe how Impa was the favorite. He defybeing overlooked but he has been cracked and I  think Rahmonov is a true contender potential. Now that I posted this, I’m clearly jinxed him and his career is over. 

shut up!!!