Lesnar vs. Overeem

This is the official discussion thread for Lesnar vs. Overeem. Let's see what you've got.

I got a feeling it will be a fast fight regardless. Brock has a 50% chance of making it out of the 1st round. Time will only tell..

I hope Overeem knocks him out with a knee. It'd be crazy to see Lesnar one shot KO'd

I think Overeem will probably knock him out, but wouldn't be surprised if Brock can get him down and keep him down. Overeem KO1 i guess.

this is definatly a hard fight to call, im gonna take Brock but it could very easily be Overeem winning by KO

lesnar via GnP or ubereem via hulk smash? ...

I don't see Overeem stopping Lesnar's shots. I think the anticipation for this fight maybe more exciting than the fight itself

I think your right @BrayMMA Overeem's takedown defense is suspect and Brock will probably win easily by decision or tko on the ground

@Crum How can you say Lesnar's chin is weak when SHANE CARWIN couldn't put him out?! Are you serious?!

And you have to remember that the Carwin fight was also coming off "ring rust" for Lesnar. And on top of all of that, while his striking hasn't exactly been something to be proud of in the past, he's been training very hard with his boxing coach, Peter Walsh, so expect at least a small improvement there.

That said though, this is a fight that I really can't predict. Overeem is such an excellent fighter and at the top of his game, but Brock Lesnar is...well, Brock Lesnar. I'm leaning towards Lesnar right now, but I'm definitely not confident about that. Gotta wait to see how he's looking before I make a prediction.

* Edited at 09.23.2011, 10:08 PM ET *

Going out on a limb here, or maybe I'm just trying to be different. I think Lesnar will have learned his lesson in the striking department, and I have to disagree that he can't take a punch. He just does'nt know how to take one, he covers up and runs when he should be trying to counter or use movement to get himself out of trouble. I believe Lesnar is more than just a name to sell tickets and ppv's.

overeem has this easy. lesnar has been out too long and has had two surgeries.

I could see it going either way, both guys have suspect chins and both guys are beasts, but i call Overeem by TKO/KO.

This is going to be a great topic of HW discussion until the fight happens. I'm not a super huge fan of either fighter. I respect both fighters' respective abilities, but I think that they are both overhyped and overrated fighters. So IMO, you have the most overrated wrestler vs. the most overrated striker. I don't mean to sound so cynical about this fight, but like I said, I'm not a real big fan of either fighter. However; I am looking forward to fight because whoever wins, I'm sure will continue to have an MMA career, and hopefully the loser will just go away.

I can see many scenarios on how this fight plays out. No matter what, this will be a very easily marketable and entertaining fight. Regardless of how I feel about both fighters.

I smell a 10-point breakdown, strengths and weaknesses breakdown, keys to victory, and predictions scenarios coming up here.

* Edited at 09.25.2011, 7:50 PM ET *

I am a big fan of Reems but i think he'll threaten on the feet early but wont be able to stop the takedown and end up getting KO/TKO'D similar to how frank mir did at ufc 100 ;)

1. Mental Edge/Confidence/Gameplan - Neither fighter is at a disadvantage when it comes to confidence or gameplan. Brock Lesnar's gameplan I'm sure is to get Overeem to the ground, and beat the SF HW the same way that he did Heath Herring and Frank Mir. While Overeem's gameplan is to keep the fight on the feet, and simply knock Brock's ass out like he did Kazuyuki Fujita and Todd Duffee. Both are so confident in their respective abilities to implement their respective gameplans. When it comes to overall mental edge, I think that Overeem will have the advantage there because he's coming off of avenging his loss to Fabricio Werdum, while Lesnar's last fight was a brutal TKO loss to current UFC HW kingpin Cain Velasquez, and a very long layoff since that loss. Advantage Overeem. Overeem 9/10, Lesnar 8/10

2. Experience/Level Of Opposition - When it comes to experience there is no doubt that Overeem has the clear cut advantage there with 46 fights compared to Lesnar's mere 7. Lesnar has faced some great competition, but the extremely clear advantage goes to Overeem here. Overeem 10/10, Lesnar 5/10

3. Heart/Determination To Win - Lesnar proved in his win over Shane Carwin, that he has a ton of heart, but he also proved that he doesn't like to get hit. When Lesnar is in trouble, he turtles up, and waits for his opponent to gas out. This proved to be a horrible gameplan against Cain Velasquez. I think the same could be said when he fights Overeem. Overeem doesn't like to get hit either, and if a fight isn't going his way from start to finish, Overeem has a tendency to spiritually break. I think when it comes to overall heart, I'll give a very slight advantage to Lesnar only because of his fight with Carwin. Overeem 6/10, Lesnar 7/10

4. Stamina/Cardio - Lesnar has been a cardio machine all the way back to his days as a college wrestler. Overeem has improved his cardio over the years, but he has been known to gas in the later rounds of fights. This area is owned by Brock Lesnar. Overeem 8/10, Lesnar 10/10

5. Endurance/Toughness - In his fight with Shane Carwin, Lesnar showed that he is very tough to finish, but in that fight, and his fights with Frank Mir, Randy Couture, and Cain Velasquez, he has a very questionable chin. Overeem has had some endurance issues over the course of his career as well. Out of 11 losses, Overeem has been finished 8 times with 6 by KO/TKO, and of those 6 TKO/KO losses 4 of them Overeem was KTFO'd. This fight could come down to who lands first at the right time. Because of that, I've got this category pretty much dead even. Overeem 7/10, Lesnar 7/10

6. Overall Striking - This area I'm pretty sure is completely in Overeem's favor. Lesnar showed some powerful striking against Heath Herring, Randy Couture, and Frank Mir, but Overeem has been consistantly known for his striking. Overeem 9/10, Lesnar 8/10

7. Overall Wrestling/Grappling - This is where Brock Lesnar has the clear cut advantage. Overeem has improved in this area by leaps and bounds, but he's nowhere near as accomplished a wrestler as Lesnar. Overeem 8/10, Lesnar 10/10

8. Overall Submissions/BJJ - Though Overeem refused to go to the ground with Fabricio Werdum, Overeem actually has more submission wins than he does wins by KO/TKO. Lesnar has one submission victory and one submission loss. I believe that Overeem gets the clear nod here. Overeem 9/10, Lesnar 7/10

9. Speed/Athleticism - For a man that walks around at 295+, Brock Lesnar moves like he weighs 170. Overeem is no slouch in this department, but I believe that Lesnar has the nod in this area here. Overeem 9/10, Lesnar 10/10

10. Strength - Again Overeem is no slouch in this department, but Lesnar is just a step above in this category. Overeem 9/10, Lesnar 10/10

Overall Score - Alistair "The Demolition Man" Overeem 84/100, Brock Lesnar 82/100

Brock Lesnar's Strengths

1. Very strong with great wrestling skills. Brock Lesnar showed his power when he was in the WWE. Anybody that can throw a 520lb. man like Paul Wight around, fake, scripted or not, you know has a ton of strength. Prior to being a MMA fighter, professional football player, and professional wrestler, Brock Lesnar was a Div I. Collegiate Wrestling Champion in 2000, a runner-up in 1999, and JUCO Wrestling Champion in 1998.

2. Very quick and athletic for a big man. Lesnar has to cut weight to make the 265lb. HW weight limit, and yet he has the speed and athleticism that is comparable to that of a man that fights at 170, maybe even 155.

3. Outstanding cardio - Brock Lesnar has no problems going any distance that is thrown at him. He does not wear out or tire easily.

Alistair Overeem's strengths

1. Very good technical and versatile striking. Overeem is a very accomplished kickboxer who knows how to use his striking skills to the best of his ability.

2. Versed and always improving submission skills. Alistair Overeem has more wins by submission than he does by KO or TKO. He's very good with choke and armlock submissions.

3. Improved physique and cardio. Over the years we've seen Overeem greatly improve his size and cardio to re-invent himself into a better fighter. It's unarguable that Overeem is a far better and more in-shape fighter than he was just a few short years ago.

　

　

Brock Lesnar's weaknesses

1. Questionable chin. Brock Lesnar either doesn't like to get hit, or he has a very questionable chin. Anytime he gets hit, he turtles up into the fetal position to avoid getting hit. This would not be a very smart thing to do against a fighter like Alistair Overeem.

2. Recent Long Lay-Off. Lesnar's last fight was against Cain Velasquez in October of 2010. By the time this fight happens, it will be more than a year that Lesnar has been inside the cage. How will the long lay-off effect Lesnar's performance, and is he really over his sickness? How much of an effect will this have on Lesnar in a fight with a fighter like Overeem?

3. Leaves himself open. Brock Lesnar has a tendency to make huge mistakes to give his opponents huge oppurtunities to counter and change the course of the fight. Brock can't leave himself open like that against a fighter like Alistair Overeem.

　

　

Alistair Overeem's weaknesses

1. Questionable cardio - Overeem has worked on and improved his conditioning over the years, but he still faded horribly in his fight against Fabricio Werdum. Lesnar is not a fighter you can fade against. Shane Carwin can testify to that. Overeem needs to be in the best possible shape when he fights Brock Lesnar.

2. Questionable chin - Lesnar may not be an accomplished kickboxer or striker of any kind, but in his fights against Heath Herring, Randy Couture, and Frank Mir Lesnar showed that he has some powerful striking. Overeem has had problems in the past with powerful strikers. I'm not saying Lesnar compares to Liddell, Hoffman, Kharitonov, or Shogun in the striking department, but if Lesnar's huge hamhocks touches Overeem's chin, it could be a very short night for Overeem.

3. First time fighting in the UFC - Overeem has faced every fighter that there is to face, has fought in many MMA orgs around the world, and has won and lost against some of the biggest names in MMA, but nothing can ever perpare you for fighting in the UFC. Many fighters that do well in other MMA orgs have a very hard time in the UFC. This will be Overeem's first time in the UFC. How much of a factor could this play in the fight?

* Edited at 09.25.2011, 9:06 PM ET *

@Jaykool great breakdown, but Lesnar was a 1x Div 1 champion in 2000 and was the runner up in 1999....He was the 1998 JUCO national champ though

* Edited at 09.25.2011, 8:53 PM ET *

I'll probably wait til the weigh-ins to make my picks.  Early prediction I'll go with Overeem via TKO 1st round.

Brock Lesnar's Keys To Victory

1. Close the distance. Bully Overeem. Overeem hasn't faced a fighter that is stronger than him in a long time. Lesnar needs to establish who is the stronger fighter right off the bat like he did against Frank Mir and Heath Herring. Overeem hasn't been bullied in a fight since his loss to Sergei Kharitonov. If Lesnar pushes Overeem against the fence, utilizes dirty boxing, and mixes it with takedowns and slams often, then Lesnar can make this his fight.

2. Don't turtle up. Everytime Lesnar gets hurt, he turtles up in the fetal position, or he just curls up period. Overeem is not a fighter that you can do that against. Learn some better defense techniques than turtling up in the fetal position.

3. Use the reach and size advantage. Though Brock Lesnar is the shorter fighter, he actually has a 2" reach advantage. Lesnar is also the bigger fighter. In the stand-up Lesnar needs to use the reach advantage, and in the clinch utilize his size and strength advantage.

4. Take the fight into deep waters. Overeem may have improved on his strength and conditioning, but Lesnar I believe has the better cardio. Lesnar needs to take this fight into the later rounds. He needs to wear Overeem down. A worn out fighter is easier to beat than a fresh one, and a worn out striker can't land punches very effectively.

　

　

Alistair Overeem's Keys To Victory

1. Touch the chin right away. Overeem needs to come right at Lesnar with his superior striking. Once Lesnar is afraid of his opponents strikes, he turtles up, and goes into the fetal position. If Overeem starts tagging Lesnar right away, it will be easier to finish the fight early.

2. Versatile strikes. Don't be one-dimensional with the strikes. The harder it is for Lesnar to predict what strike is coming, the harder it is for him to set-up his takedowns.

3. Lots of movement. Overeem needs to stay moving. Utilize head movement to avoid Lesnar's strikes, to get inside and land a clinic of strikes.

4. Finish quick. The longer the fight goes on, the more the fight plays into Lesnar's hands. Overeem needs to finish the fight quick.

Thanks for correction SoccerKick. I thought he was a two-time champion.

This fight is going to end one of 4 ways.

1. The fighters meet in the center of the cage. Lesnar lands the big puch first like he did against Heath Herring, and dominates the fight with takedowns and clinch game to a decision.

2. Same as #1, but Lesnar finishes the fight by 1st round KO.

3. Overeem connects first, and puts Lesnar aways in the first round by KO.

4. Same as #3, but Overeem is on the ground with Lesnar and submits Lesnar by armbar or choke in round 1 or 2.