Gustafsson vs. Hamill Predictions

This is the official prediction commentary thread for Gustafsson vs. Hamill. Let's see what you've got.

still dont see hammill surviving

I'm still on The Mauler's band wagon and Matt is a great story, just over-rated fighter.

This is a close one for me. May switch.

I think hamill might wrestle to a late tko

I don't see it @Pierce.  It looks like Matt has digressed to me.

Hamill's tendency to ignore his wrestling and stay on the feet, and the TDD Gustafsson showed against Phil Davis combined with the fact that he's been training with Davis, both individually aren't enough to confirm to me that this fight will remain a stand-up fight. However, combine the two pieces of information, and it seems pretty likely that this will be entirely a stand-up fight.

Having said that, I don't think Gustafsson's TDD is that sure of a thing. He was taken down by Te Huna. Also, lots of people are saying that since he defended Phil Davis' takedowns, and Davis > Hamill in wrestling, he should be able to defend Hamill's takedowns. I don't think that's the best point, because Davis and Hamill are like opposites in the striking department. Davis is extremely cautious and can seem afraid to strike, whereas Hamill is crazy aggressive and seems eager to strike. It should be easier to get the takedown if it's mixed with striking. That said, Hamill hasn't shown the specific ability to mix striking and takedowns well, like say, Rashad Evans has.

Were the fight to stay standing in its entirity, most people would pick Gustafsson in a heartbeat, but I'm still not sure. While Gustafsson may be able to keep the fight standing, he still has to fight while being prepared to defend the takedown. Then look at his fight with Jared Hamman. Hamman was extremely aggressive at the start of the fight, backed up Gustafsson against the cage an landed a couple of times, but the tide turned when Hamman got hit himself. Hammill is also extremely aggressive, but also has a great chin.

If Hamill's able to get the takedown, I think his chances of winning are much greater. I wouldn't expect him to be submitted. Therefore, I just think Hamill has more ways to win: He will win if he gets the takedown, and he has a good chance even if he doesn't. It's still a tough fight to call. I think Hamill's the better bet, being the underdog, at one point going as high as +193. But not considering the odds, I'm more inclined to pick Gustafsson. My pick is still Hamill, although it may change.

Edit: I actually think the keys to victory for Gustafsson are his chin and cardio. If he can take Hamill's punches, and be fresher than him in the second half of the fight, he could win a decision. I do see the fight being a decision either way. That is unless I've drastically underestimated how good of a striker Gustafsson is.

* Edited at 08.06.2011, 2:28 AM ET *

great post @gio!

I think it will be a close fight whatever happens..

Interestingly most of the money has come in on Hamill, as the odds favoring Gustafsson have dropped steadily - Gustafsson is now trending around -180 after a consensus opening of like -210.

Wrestling is the difference.

Tough call. Think Hamill catches him with something big.

I really wanna see Hamill win!

Body shot tko for Gustafsson

specific!!i like that @mino! only problem is it'll b a head kick/ knee in the 2nd

Hamill is now a UFC Gatekeeper and Gustafsson is breaking through as an MMA fighter

Beautiful description... I agree.

i always root for hamill but i think age his caught up to him and his TD's are telegraphed and i see gustafsson as the younger more determined fighter.

I wish we got points for pickign the right round.... ... ....

when they got five rounds maybe we will. the main event ones coming up.

Dan M. let that fight go longer than it needed, it was apparent Hamill was done once he hit the ground.