UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Pantoja vs. Erceg
Alexandre Pantoja, DEC
Pantoja via DEC. Steve is a gamer but not near Pantoja’s level

Martinez vs. Aldo
José Aldo, DEC
Aldo via DEC. He’s backkkk

Smith vs. Petrino
Vitor Petrino, TKO, R2
Vitor via KO/TKO. Smith just has no grit. His test levels have to be down, muscle mass is almost non existent. Vitor aa we know is on that Brazilian Barber Water

Pereira vs. Potieria
Michel Pereira, TKO
Michel via TKO. Will never forgive Ihor celebrating like he won the super-bowl against Shogun.

Craig vs. Borralho
Caio Borralho, TKO, R1
Caio via TKO. Craig has no chin, and is too comfortable with going to his back. Caio has improved each time he fights

Brito vs. Shore
Joanderson Brito, SUB, R2
Brito via Sub. Can see him stuff shore’s TD after he hurts him and subs him.

Brener vs. Orolbai
Myktybek Orolbai, SUB
Orolbai via SUB. Elvis can bang as we know but Orobai showed he is relentless with pressure and takedowns

Bonfim vs. Pichel
Ismael Bonfim, DEC
Bonfim via Dec Lets see if you make weight this time bubba

Satuev didn’t do much damage in the fight tho, I remember he hurt Orolbai with something but most of the fight was spent defending tds and not doing anything 

@gliese58i 

Idk why ppl downvote what u said, i agree. No way thats a robbery. 

I have no problem giving Orolbay either rd 2 or 3 or both and like I talked about in the Apex card thread the other day, if you secure a clear rd 1 like Orolbay did and then have two contested rounds you are highly favored to win.

That doesn't mean it's a robbery though to give Satuev rd 2 and 3 in my opinion. I think he got the better exchanges on the feet in rd 2, at the end of the round when he was taken down Orolbay landed some shots but Satuev landed a couple of good upkicks, then Orolbay just controlled him for the remainder of the round.

In rd 3 they mirrored each other with Orolbay having the better dmg and dominant position in the first half and Satuev having the same for the second half of the round. I tend to favor a mirrored performance of that kind to the fighter ending the round with the upper hand but you can score that round for either fighter as well.

It may be just me but im just kinda shocked that a PPV is this week. Not sure why though, it may just be that it doesnt feel like that great of a card but ima still watch it.

@gilese that’s fair, it definitely was close; I should’ve had a better choi e of words. I still consider it a robbery considering he fought a chechnyan in Chechnya; I’m sure the scorecards would’ve been different in another location. Or org as well, aca has a history of fixed fights and corruption

 Michel Pereira is the LOCK of this card.   

The fights on the card ain’t bad, they just no fights I want to spend money to see, I don’t get how you can get close to justifying paying $70 for it. Most I will pay to see this card is $20 and most of that is because of Aldo

Don’t get me wrong, I’m watching it for free and I’ll will most likely enjoy it, Expecting a finish heavy card 

* Edited at 04.28.2024, 8:38 PM ET *

I hope all you poors have learned your lesson from last week.

I warned you about Llollypop. What kind of a name is that anyway?

I told you all very early on thar Gabe Green was going to smoke this fool and what did I get? Downvotes and ridicule. 

Serves you all right. Now that your parlays are busted and you are even poorer, this time listen to me when I make a bet.

I will help all you bottom feeders out soon with my incredible picks for this easy card

Pereira vs. Potieria
Michel Pereira, DEC
Not a lock Manbuns run will end soon Ihor could get lucky but not likely.

Brito vs Shore 
Brito KO RD 1

I don't like this pick because 1. I think shore is better and 2. I don't rate Brito very highly. However, he has consistently been able to meme his way to wins, and sadly I think shore's flaws are enough for him to exploit. For one, he just shouldn't be at 145; he suffers from the same issues wood does & he lacks the power and strength of wood. Maybe with layoff hes had time to bulk up but his last time out he didn't look great. This reminds me a lot of gomis vs silva; on one hand we have a mindless brawler and the other we have a technician who takes 0 risks. Shore is so much better in every technical aspect, but he is too small for 145 and brito will be able to bully him. For example, shore will be able to jab brito at will; his jab is a laser beam and brito doesn't have defense but, he has no power behind it. Meaning that brito is going to walk him down and throw heat. Aside from brito having one punch power, shore doesn't like to get hit that much so that lessens his chances. Shore should be able to out grapple brito. He is a good wrestler and has very solid grappling skills. Brito doesn't have the wrestling but his bjj is dangerous and he is good at getting up. I can see shore doing what I expected JSP to do, but idk if he can put it together for 15 minutes. If he can get brito down round 1 & hold him there, brito could start to slow down. I really want shore to win this but I have a bad feeling he just gets meme koed by brito
Kowalkiewicz vs Lucindo
Lucindo SUB RD 2

Id say this is my most confident pick of the card. KK is on a win streak but she is fighting girls way below her skill level (and even then not looking amazing). These girls are bottom tier ufc or retired so no one special. KK always has good volume & improved her grappling but she is still extremely washed. Lucindo looks like a phenom and has been a wrecking ball thus far. Her striking is a bit sloppy, but she is very physical and aggressive which goes a long way. KK more technical but she hates getting hit & Lucindo should be able to bully her. If KK tries to grapple, she won't have success. Lucindo was a grappler first and has shown pretty dominant top control. I also saw she trained with Amanda nunes for this camp so rip KK. Honestly wouldn't be shocked if we see her go cold like the Andrade fight

Brener vs Orolbai
Orolbai DEC

People's main event right here, should honestly be on the main card. Even though I think orolbai wins, I think the odds are pretty insane given how much of a dawg Brener is. Im very impressed with his ability to never stop fighting. He basically fights like a striking heavy do bronx; always pressuring with nasty Muay Thai skills. Defense is an afterthought but he has a crazy chin. Brener doesn't use it much but he has very good bjj as well, always active on bottom and has crazy scrambles. Orolbai is just a killer, he doesn't seem to have any emotion; all he wants to do is spam takedowns and break you. He always stays so calm & has a titanium chin, he has eaten some very powerful shots on the chin and his composure just doesnt change at all. On the feet I favor Brener but Orolbai's striking is pretty solid. His head movement is a little stiff but his footwork and feinting is solid. he also possesses crazy power which makes his striking effective. Brener may not force a brawl here since orolbai is patient on the feet & has the takedown threat. Brener's tdd has looked really good in the ufc, but he has also not fought a wrestler like orolbai. Orolbai wrestles like a dagi, is very physically strong, and can chain wrestle his ass off. Ever since his lone loss, orolbai has became much more active on top. He has moments of inactivity but for the most part chases a finish. I don't think he will have any issues getting Brener down, but he may have some holding him down. Brener has shown a dangerous guard and good ability to get to his feet thus far. However, Orolbai's style traps limbs & shuts down bjj so it will be interesting. I wouldn't be shocked at all by an upset here but I honestly think orolbai is the real deal.

Silva vs Gomis
Gomis DEC

good fight but very weird matchmaking. Not only are these two on different trajectories at the moment, but they are opposite styles. Silva is a brawler who throws to kill while gomis is a technical sniper who fights off of the backfoot. Best way to explain silva is a technical brawler, at range he doesn't do a ton. Mostly just throws out feelers or single shots. He will also taunt a lot which is just strange. His best work is done up close, he has nasty boxing & when he gets in range he will rip combos to the body and head. However, he does this in bursts, often exploding with a flurry and then going back to the tauntung and general low volume. Gomis has such an annoying style to deal with. Hes very athletic and huge for the division, most importantly, he knows how to use these tools very well. Gomis always fights on the backfoot & sets traps for his opponents. He has a super clean jab and can throw kicks going backwards which is crazy. He doesn't hit very hard but is very accurate. His head movement and footwork combine to make him very difficult to hit; 75% striking defense is insane no matter the competition level. Given how Silva can't fight at range, I think Gomis is going to force him to chase while gomis picks him apart. Gomis fought a pressure heavy brawler in harila (albeit a much worse version) and completely destroyed him, so it gives me confidence in this matchup. Silva could always knock him out but I think most people outside of the top 15 are going to struggle with Gomis's weird defensive movement.


Silva vs Klose
Klose KO RD 2

These guys are going to swing until someone's head gets taken off. Ive always really liked klose's style for some reason; it's ugly, but in a good way. He always forces a brawl & will throw things like barely legal kicks or punching at every break. Despite his nickname, silva is a brawler. What separates him and Klose is the toolbox. Silva pretty much only throws hooks to the head (occasionally jabs and leg kicks) where Klose mixes in a little bit of everything. The power advantage definitely goes to silva but conversely silva can't take a punch very well. Even that Guida fight was unimpressive, he struggled a lot more than he should've. He will have a decent chance here since this is going to be a bar brawl, but I think Klose is going to get it done yet again.

Ruffy vs Mullarkey
Ruffy KO RD 1

This is a hard one for me, Ruffy has shown some really good skills, but he has also had a lot of bad moments that make me wonder what his ceiling is. With mullarkey however, I think he has found his ceiling. I used to think mullarkey had potential but watching his fights back he is really quite trash. His kickboxing is pretty good for what it is & he has used wrestling in the past (doesn't anymore) but mullarkey only knows how to brawl. He can win moments & look good but he is way too reliant on his chin, and it's declining. You could also make the argument mullarkey is 1-4 in his last 5 with the robberies. Back to Ruffy, he suffers from similar problems to mullarkey; his striking actually looks quite good but ive seen him get dropped multiple times before & his defense is not great. His actual striking is great tho, very slick karate style. Despite the ko's he is pretty patient; he can throw down when he wants but hes usually low volume & waits to counter strike. His counter striking is pretty legit imo and he should have no issues finding malarkey's chin with a counter. That being said, it is his debut & hes going back to 155 against an experienced opponent. I think ruffy will win but this will be a good fight to see where he is at, because im not 100% sold yet.

Barbosa vs Kareckaite
Barbosa DEC

idk why this is on a ppl, could've easily buried this in the apex. I will say, Ernesta had one of the best dwcs fights ever, but she is not good at all. She has some annoying qualities that have gotten her to 5-0-1 (miraculously, because she could easily be 3-3), those being her massive stature and constant volume. She has no power whatsoever but has that classic wmma striking where she flails her arms. Funny enough, it will probably work here since Barbosa has no striking. However, Barbosa is a judo black belt & has shown a pretty decent grappling skillset in her fights. yeah, she's fought cans but at least she is winning fights clearly, ernesta goes to split with everyone and really should've lost to blot (41 years old btw). i

Bonfim vs Pichel
Bonfim KO RD 2

Im still on the bonfim train. Loss to BSD is aging very well (and honestly he didn't look THAT bad before the stoppage) and the weight miss is whatever. Even though hes lost 4 times by sub, im really impressed with bonfim's grappling. He actually knows how to wrestle & has better bjj than his record shows. Of course, the best part of his game is the striking; he is such a clean boxer. I think he looked bad against BSD because that was a really bad matchup in hindsight; besides massive size gap, BSD was way too aggressive for someone like bonfim, who prefers to counter strike and capitalize on his opponents mistakes. Against Pichel, Bonfim should have no issues. Pichel is a solid vet but he is ancient; not a ton of milage but hes old and had a lot of injuries outside the cage. His style is pretty old fashioned as well, with his hands always down & throwing punches at weird angles. He is a pretty solid striker but bonfim is significantly better in every regard. Pichel has never shown chin issues but watching his most recent fight back, he was noticeably slower than previous bouts & was not reacting as quickly as he used to; getting pieced by Madsen is a bad sign. I think bonfim puts a statement on this one and finishes him

Costa vs Borjas 
Borjas KO RD 1

This is a tricky fight because if costa fights smart he will look like a big favorite. Borjas is much better than I thought but he does still have a lot of flaws he needs to fix. Borjas's main hole is his tdd, like all Peruvians, he can't grapple very well and can't defend takedowns. Costa is a legit grappler, I honestly think it's the best part of his game. But, he has fallen in love with his hands. Hes an okay striker & very powerful for the weight class, but he is very low volume (took him two rounds to finish a one legged flick), headhunts, and low-key a little chinny. Borjas striking is really slick, he has very quick hands and packs a punch himself. His body shot especially is great. Borjas is going to force a brawl out of costa & I don't think costa is comfortable there. Sure, he can land bombs on Borjas but he won't be able to take the punches back nor can he match Borjas's pace. Now, if he grapples I think this is light work. Borjas can't wrestle & with costa's submission ability he should easily find the neck. However, he just does not want to wrestle at the ufc level & I think that's going to cost him here

Pantoja vs Erceg
Pantoja KO RD 2

I totally get the erceg picks but I personally can't get there. I do think pantoja is a lot more beatable than people let on, but I don't think this is the guy to do it. I have to admit, erceg has been very impressive. He has a well rounded skillset and hasn't looked scared of the lights at all. His boxing is very crisp, I don't think hes a crazy ko artist but he is a good counter striker and can crack. Pantoja is hittable and very wild, but it just works. He creates chaos on the feet and can crack for a flyweight. I can definitely see him getting rocked but for as wild as he is, it's not like erceg has insane defense. In fact, he doesn't move his head at all. Its worked this for but I really don't think it will fly at this level. Hes a great striker but that defense has to improve. Now the grappling is very interesting. I think erceg's grappling is the best part of his game. He hasn't used it a ton but his awareness on the ground is great & he transitions very well through positions and submissions. I think we will see some very creative scrambles from these two, as pantoja's bjj is elite level & erceg doesn't accept bottom position. That being said, I think pantoja is better in that area. his back takes are some of the best ive seen. I could see erceg pulling it off, but I really don't see him finishing pantoja. The most likely way he wins is by suviving the onslaught and outworking a tired pantoja.

Martinez vs Aldo
Martinez DEC

I originally had Aldo here. Looking past his accomplishments & purely at matchup, he is a nightmare for Martinez. Aldo is the master of leg kicks (both throwing and checking) and is a very good & powerful boxer. In theory, he should be able to stop Martinez from getting his kicking game going, and beat him up with his hands. However, I don't think he gets that storybook ending. Aldo had never fully lost it, but he had been slowly declining since losing the belt. I also really don't like his mentality, saying hes going to fight out his contract to box. It's never good when you are thinking past mma, but especially when you are facing a young killer. Now, ive never been particularly high on Martinez, but he is improving rapidly and has always been a really crafty striker. One thing that jumped out to me is Aldo's adaption to boxing style; in the latter half of his career, he adopted a boxing heavy style and really hasn't thrown many leg kicks at all. In fact, he regularly gets out kicked by his opponents now. I don't expect Martinez to damage him, but he can absolutely chip at Aldo's legs. Martinez's biggest issue is his chin, and that's a genuine worry with Aldo's power but I think he will be fine. HIs footwork is A1 and his hands have been coming along as well. An upset would be awesome, but I don't think Aldo should've unretired.

Smith vs Petrino
Petrino KO RD 3

I wanted to see a path to victory for smith, not because I think petrino is bad, but because there are a lot of flaws in his game. Smith may be able to exploit them early, but he physically can't take a punch so that evens things up. Petrino has nukes in his hands & legitimatly good kickboxing but he can't fight technical at all. If you stand at range with him, he doesn't throw anything & can be easily picked apart. Smith should be able to outstrke him at range but all vitro needs is one punch to even the fight. One thing that legitimately impresses me about petrino is his wrestling. He has shockingly good technique & paired with his absurd physicality and strength makes him very tough to deal with. The issue however is that he doesn't have the damage aspect down. He doesn't have bjj and isn't comfortable with letting his hands go. All smith does on the ground at this point is turtle up, so Vitor should be able to finish him. I wouldn't be socked if this is a repeat of the Pedro fight. Vitor's chin is a little sus so maybe he gets chinned but I really don't see it. Smith is showing up for a paycheck

Periera vs Potieria
Periera KO RD 1

squash match. I didn't like Michel at 170 & while I still have a lot of questions at 185, there's no denying he has looked like a monster in this weight class. He hasn't given up any size & his power has translated very well. Potieria is a tin can, we've seen it time and time again. Ihor is also double booked to fight Shara like a true jobber. I think Michel finishes this however he wants. I low-key could see a sub but he probably one taps ihor

Craig vs Borralho
Borralho SUB RD 2

Im not super high on Caio like most but this is free money. Craig was always an auto fade for me at 205 but I think this move to 185 was awful. Craig has never had a good chin or cardio & those issues are only amplified cutting the extra weight. He managed to win against Muniz but in hindsight that was a good matchup because Muniz has no cardio and will play on his back. Craig's guard is overrated as well, yes he is very dangerous but it is so easy to take him down & control him. Someone like Caio who is a very intelligent grappler will be able to shut down Craig's guard completely and do whatever he wants. The only question is does he lay n pray like he always does, or will he chase a finish? You got to think he finds a finish here but who knows. Besides a sub I could see a gnp ko or even a standing ko; he loves to throw flying knees & it will be there all day against Craig.

Michael Bisping using only his bad eye could see that Michel Pereira is a lock,  even the worst handicapper on the planet  Minty the moron Bets could not get this one wrong  

Brito vs. Shore
Joanderson Brito, TKO, R1
Brito is a dawg. He is one of the best in the world for one round. That Algeo loss looks bad now but he has found his stride well. Shore could very easily win if this makes it past the 1st but I’ve bet against Brito too much to not take him here

Kowalkiewicz vs. Lucindo
Iasmin Lucindo, DEC
It’s hard to believe but Karolina is on a 4 fight win streak. Not a very impressive one but considering her losing streak it’s nice to see. However Lucindo is younger and better everywhere. I could say finish but I think Karolina toughs it out like she usually does

Brener vs. Orolbai
Myktybek Orolbai, DEC
Banger fight, one of the best on the card by far. Brener came out of nowhere and has impressed consistently. This fight could be the end of his road here tho. Orolbai is a tank who is good everywhere but his wrestling is very impressive. His only loss was to a 13-0 guy so I won’t hold it against him. Skill for skill on the feet I’ll take Brener but I think Orolbai just keeps it where he needs to and secures a UD

Silva vs. Gomis
William Gomis, DEC
Strange to me silva is the favorite here. He screams average to me. He’s entertaining but I don’t see him being able to do much. He’s also got a guy who’s considerably longer, taller and more technical than he is. Gomis may be boring as **** but he is solid. I’ll gladly take him here

Silva vs. Klose
Drakkar Klose, TKO, R3
Lowkey a solid fight. I really like Silva’s style, he sauced to the gills and throws straight heat all three rounds even if he’s tired. His takedown defense is also solid. Klose imo tho is just the better fighter overall who also has better durability. Joaquim could knock him out but I doubt it

Ruffy vs. Mullarkey
Mauricio Ruffy, TKO, R2
Mullarkey is gonna get Ruffied here. He puts on entertaining fights but he’s just taken too much damage thus leading to getting KOd by guys who are solid but not great. I see this going like the Naimov fight. He might look good for a bit but I see Ruffy finding a big shot because of Mullarkeys horrible defense

Barbosa vs. Kareckaite
Ernesta Kareckaite, DEC
Strange to me Barbosa is a -220. Admittedly I didn’t care to watch tape but I recall both DWCS fights. I feel like it’s your typical 50-50 striker vs grappler fight. In this case I’ll take the cardio and volume of Ernesta. Would not be shocked with either result

Bonfim vs. Pichel
Vinc Pichel, TKO, R3
Pretty simple one here. Bonfims weigh miss and loss to BSD (even though it has aged well) was concerning but I have no doubt he smokes old man Pichel because as we’ve seen age catches up to everyone even if he doesn’t have a lot of tread on the tires. Bonfim is also just the better fighter everywhere. I see dominance leading to a finish

Costa vs. Borjas
Alessandro Costa, DEC
This is a real easy one for me. Costas ufc record isn’t pretty but his level of competition is strong enough for me to ignore it in this case. He is well rounded everywhere but his power in the striking is what makes him dangerous. He managed a round against Erceg despite getting touched on the outside. Borjas is a man who loves to brawl and has solid boxing technique. He also has good durability but I think he can be knocked out. If Costa is the guy to do it I’m not sure. I feel like Costa may have trouble with the volume but besides that he should be all good. He could also very easily take this to the ground and use his Jiu Jitsu. I could see a finish but I’ll go with a dominant decision

* Edited at 04.29.2024, 1:10 AM ET *

Craig vs. Borralho
Caio Borralho, DEC
Think I've worked out Borralho, he's a very intelligent guy and will grapple if your name is Lord Michal and will strike if you are a grappler. I can see him just sitting on the outside and picking apart Craig at range. I don't know whether he has the power to finish Craig (Although he arguably needs to finish if he wants to get a big fight in 2024) I can't see Craig landing anything meaningful in this fight. His weapons are only the front kick and pulling guard. He does have an okay single but struggles to pull it off against fighters more athletic than him. I don't think Borralho is world class by any means, but you'd expect him to win this quite convincingly.

Brito vs. Shore
Joanderson Brito, SUB, R2
I'm very confident in Brito here. Sure he is a bit of a meathead but I think he is going to have a huge physicality edge to nullify all of Shore's game. Shore on the feet is okay, nothing flash and will throw out a good jab (Not really a volume guy or power threat). His only path is to set a 15 minute wrestling pace, which in Brazil against someone much stronger than him I cant see. I can just see Brito disrespecting him on the feet and marching forward. If it goes to the mat Brito has shown he can hang with the likes of Diego Lopes and Hillbilly JSP (JSP looked autistic on the weekend but still think he's a good grappler). I just see this a great spot for Brito

Silva vs. Gomis
William Gomis, DEC
Gomis (Southpaw). Simple but effective striking and will use the front side kick to establish range and attack with the lead hand where he can throw it straight or around the guard. Similar to Manon Fiorot and really understands how to maintain range on the outside. Issues are he tends to fight close (Red flag if fighting in Brazil against a brazilian) and tends to struggle when taken down, particularly in later fights. Silva tends to utilise a switch stance, I feel he loves his spinning/capoeira attacks, although we havent seen them as much because he's fought Weston Wilson. I really question whether he is UFC level to be honest. I also think Gomis can blend in the wrestling in which I've seen before, although he is not a BJJ threat. I am surprised to see Gomis as the underdog and good financial opportunity.

Ruffy vs. Mullarkey
Mauricio Ruffy, TKO, R1
Ruffy on the feet will fight quite similar to Borralho in that he is low output, karate base and will look to counter off what you throw at him. I wonder after Mullarkey coming off a KO he will look to fight conservative or push the pace. If he fights conservative this could be a snooze fest and low action fight. Mullarkeys wins lately have been when he's been able to implement the grappling in his fights and push a pace. I feel Mullarkey is the better fighter but a glass jaw in MMA is a horrible attribute to have so I am wary. I do think Ruffy is a fade spot for the future, so even if he wins this there might be upside in fading him in the future. Weigh In's will be important too (Believe Ruffy is coming down a weight class)

Barbosa vs. Kareckaite
Dione Barbosa, SUB, R2
Don't mind this fight because I expect it to be all action, even though it will be extremely low level. I expect Kareckaite to walk forward and throw combinations but she's low level. Very hittable on the counter although tough and will bring the fight. I think this one sided if Barbosa looks to implement her wrestling and she should rack up a submission (RNC) on the mat. She will have to be defensively sound on the feet because although Ernesta doesn't possess power, Barbosa is one of the more chinnier fighters in the womens division.

Bonfim vs. Pichel
Ismael Bonfim, TKO, R1
Pichel is tough as nails but he is 40 and coming off a long layoff, so ring rust and timing will be questionable. Bonfim looks like a character off willy wonka but he hits hard and will walk you down with power and combination boxing. Expect an early-mid finish.

Costa vs. Borjas
Kevin Borjas, DEC
50/50 fight. Borjas will likely be that little bit sharper on the feet with his speed and punching combinations. In the fight against Van he exchanged well on the feet early and wilted towards the end of round 2/3 either due to a pacing issue or the fact Van was attacking the body. I expect him to have a slight durability advantage vs Costa as well if they decide to just stand and trade. Costa has a few tools to win (Especially outside leg kick and takedown upside). I am unsure if Costa will gameplan to wrestle originally which could result him in getting a bit behind on the scorecards. Borjas just, no confidence and like all Peruvians his TDD/BJJ is very suspect

Pantoja vs. Erceg
Alexandre Pantoja, DEC
Enough jokes. You want money? Forget stocks. Forget investing. Here are my picks. Erceg is good just not Pantoja good.

Martinez vs. Aldo
Jonathan Martinez, DEC
If not for the layoff and retirement I'd pick Aldo

Smith vs. Petrino
Vitor Petrino, TKO, R2
Retire you bald 🤡

Craig vs. Borralho
Caio Borralho, DEC
Retire you bearded 🤡

Brito vs. Shore
Joanderson Brito, TKO, R2
Jack gonna get murked. His WMMA punches can't stop Brito.

Kowalkiewicz vs. Lucindo
Iasmin Lucindo, SUB, R2
Close one

Brener vs. Orolbai
Myktybek Orolbai, DEC
Close one. I don't think Brener hits as hard as Medic

Silva vs. Gomis
William Gomis, DEC
Boring Frechie win

Silva vs. Klose
Drakkar Klose, DEC
Netto BJJ my ass

Ruffy vs. Mullarkey
Mauricio Ruffy, TKO, R2
No chin

Barbosa vs. Kareckaite
Dione Barbosa, DEC
*** is this fight

Bonfim vs. Pichel
Ismael Bonfim, DEC
Easy

Costa vs. Borjas
Alessandro Costa, SUB, R3
Easy

Pantoja vs. Erceg
Alexandre Pantoja, SUB, R3
This feels like a levels fight to me. I think Erceg is really good but the jump up from fighting Matt Schnell and Nono Costa to fighting Pantoja is really something. I think Erceg can potentially really contend again in the future but this seems too early for him against someone like Pantoja who's in his absolute prime right now.

Martinez vs. Aldo
Jonathan Martinez, DEC
Not putting too much into the Aldo return to be honest. He's only back for one fight to get out of his contract to box and while I'm sure he'll try and win in Rio he's been training boxing for a while. Martinez is a young, hungry contender who's constantly improving fight to fight. I think Aldo should have enough experience to make it to a decision though.

Smith vs. Petrino
Vitor Petrino, DEC
Step up for Petrino but I think Smith is way past prime at this stage and he'll find him far too physical for him. I suspect Anthony is wily enough that he won't be easy to sub and probably won't get stuck in a bad position for long enough to get taken out with ground and pound. Petrino could catch him on the feet but Anthony's pretty tough and while he hits hard I'm not sure he's Khalil Rountree in that regard.

Pereira vs. Potieria
Michel Pereira, TKO, R1
The only real question here is Potieria having a decent chin. Dude can take a shot, but Michel ******* cracks and he cracks fast and hard. I have to think at some point he's going to do something which is way too much athletically for Ihor to deal with and although Ihor has a solid chin he does get hit a lot which I doubt you can do against Michel. If not then Michel probably subs him anyway.