UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@AyyLmaonnaise 

I see, you know Mcghee more than me, I forget, he's like 33 years old also, so he doesn't have much time left

Rosa Jr is not the same fighter after 5 minutes that he is in rd 1.

@gilese well I’m not so sure about that. He gassed against ceerod because he used all his energy in round 1 trying to get the fight to the mat. Against Mando on dwcs, rosas scrambled hard for 15 minutes and didn’t look that tired. I think it all depends how much takedown resistance he faces. If he’s facing a bad wrestler then he shouldn’t have many problems 

We ♥ Marcus Mcghee

Gaziev 12-0
Petrino 10-0
Mokaev 10-0
Nurmagomedov 16-0
Basharat 14-0

Who will take 1?

Losses to Royval and Nicolau are not bad losses, and the level of comp Schnell has had is far ahead of Erceg, who was a can crusher before his two UFC wins… I’m not sold on Erceg really yet. Is there reason to be? And despite the glass chin, Schnell is at least a solid UFC vet. Line keeps going up, there is +330 now and almost every book is +300 or higher. I’ll wait for the line to keep rising, but leaning towards a nibble at it.

You won't hear me talk against that type of betting strategy in general, it's what has me on the cusp of going pro. With fighters I don't trust I want a very high EV and Schnell is definitely one of those guys for me but sure there is a number there were I'll put in a wager. Last minute FOMO can drive a dog up to insane numbers and you can resell that bet risk free for a guaranteed arb at a betting exchange like 1 minute into the fight when bettors calm down a bit.

I don't agree that Eternal MMA is a league of cans though, I think among smaller promotions it's one of the better ones. Just look at all the talent coming out of that region in recent years. I think just looking at Erceg fight is enough to see that he is really skilled, I mean he came on and defeated the #10 ranked guy on short notice, in his UFC debut, beating Dvorak at his own game.

everyone should watch erceg vs shannon ross and see with your own eyes that erceg was getting toyed with before shannon's chin gave out

schnell is just as good as erceg anywhere the fight goes in my opinion but there is a bad stigma around his chin, thankfully though erceg is harmless and pillowfisted on the feet so he will live to see another day. I think +330 is a good spot

* Edited at 02.29.2024, 4:44 PM ET *

Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev
Jairzinho Rozenstruik, TKO, R1
Rozenstruik shows levels and death-touches Gaziev in the very first round.

Petrino vs. Pedro
Vitor Petrino, DEC
Petrino wrestle****s Pedro for 3 full rounds

Perez vs. Mokaev
Alex Perez, DEC
Perez out-volumes Mokaev to a decision win.

Nurmagomedov vs. Almakhan
Umar Nurmagomedov, SUB, R3
Nurmagomedov plays it safe for most of the fight until he finds the submission finish in the 3rd round.

Schnell vs. Erceg
Steve Erceg, SUB, R2
Erceg beats the crap out of the zombie schnell until he finally finds the submission finish in the 2nd round.

Anders vs. Pickett
Eryk Anders, SUB, R2
Anders and Pickett have a boring first round, and in the second round Pickett puts his head into a guillotine while going for a sloppy takedown.

Oliveira vs. Sopaj
Vinicius Oliveira, TKO, R2
Oliveira swings bungalows for the opening bell, and finally catches the dubutant in the 2nd round.

Basharat vs. Zahabi
Javid Basharat, TKO, R1
Basharat lands a snappy lead leg left headkick which stuns Zahabi and after Basharat finishes Zahabi with ground and pound for the TKO finish in the first round.

Duncan vs. Ribeiro
Christian Leroy Duncan, TKO, R1
Duncan picks Ribeiro apart with leg kicks from distance, Ribiero in an attempt to close the distance finds himself in a clinch with Duncan, where Duncan lands several knees and elbows for the KO finish.

Klein vs. Cunningham
Ľudovít Klein, TKO, R2
Klein plays with his food in the first round to find the distance and timing, and in the second round he connects with a huge left hand for the KO win.

Radzhabov vs. Al-Selwady
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady, SUB, R1
Al-Selwady hurts Radzhabov early on the feet which leads to the 1st round club and sub, most likely via RNC.

I'm gonna take your word for it because I didn't watch that fight. I will just note it was 4 years ago and he ultimately got a first round finish.

If you watch Erceg in his two UFC bouts and then Schnell in his most recent bouts I don't think that Schnell is a match for him in the striking. Especially when it comes to kicks. Schnell has hands but he relies on speed when he's not just wading into the pocket and accepting a brawl. I agree that the line is wide but from your comment you think it's almost a pickem or am I understanding you wrong?

* Edited at 02.29.2024, 4:54 PM ET *

Brawler with no chin vs more patient striker with 0 head movmenet, gonna be an interesting fight if it plays out standing 

Lok Dogs stature during face offs should switch some picks. 

* Edited at 02.29.2024, 6:23 PM ET *

@Vandal 

none

Bernado, dog pick. only advantages i see from the other guy is size and reach. 

* Edited at 02.29.2024, 8:02 PM ET *

Fight 1: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev

• Predicted Winner:Shamil Gaziev
• Method of Victory:Submission
• Predicted Round of Stoppage:Round 3
• Confidence Score:65%
• Matchup Breakdown:Gaziev's superior grappling and striking defense are likely to counter Rozenstruik's powerful striking. Expect Gaziev to utilize his wrestling and submission skills to secure a victory.

Fight 2: Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro

• Predicted Winner:Vitor Petrino
• Method of Victory:Decision
• Confidence Score:65%
• Matchup Breakdown:Petrino's aggressive grappling and striking output give him the edge over Pedro. His ability to blend his striking with effective takedowns will likely dictate the fight's pace and location.

Fight 3: Alex Perez vs. Muhammad Mokaev

• Predicted Winner:Muhammad Mokaev
• Method of Victory:Submission
• Predicted Round of Stoppage:Round 2
• Confidence Score:60%
• Matchup Breakdown:Mokaev's grappling dominance is expected to challenge Perez's striking-focused approach. Mokaev's strategy will likely involve securing takedowns and pursuing a submission victory.

Fight 4: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan

• Predicted Winner:Umar Nurmagomedov
• Method of Victory:Submission
• Predicted Round of Stoppage:Round 3
• Confidence Score:75%
• Matchup Breakdown:Nurmagomedov's well-rounded skill set, particularly his grappling prowess, is anticipated to overcome Almakhan's striking power, leading to a submission win.

Fight 5: Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg

• Predicted Winner:Steve Erceg
• Method of Victory:Submission
• Predicted Round of Stoppage:Round 2
• Confidence Score:70%
• Matchup Breakdown:Erceg's slightly superior striking and more aggressive grappling suggest he will control the bout, potentially securing a submission victory.

Fight 6: Eryk Anders vs. Jamie Pickett

• Predicted Winner:Eryk Anders
• Method of Victory:Decision
• Confidence Score:60%
• Matchup Breakdown:Anders' experience and slightly more aggressive grappling might give him the edge, allowing him to score points and secure a decision win.

Fight 7: Vinicius Oliveira vs. Benardo Sopaj

• Predicted Winner:Vinicius Oliveira
• Method of Victory:TKO/KO
• Predicted Round of Stoppage:Round 2
• Confidence Score:75%
• Matchup Breakdown:Oliveira's high striking volume and efficiency are expected to dominate the fight, leading to a TKO/KO victory over Sopaj.

Fight 8: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Javid Basharat

• Predicted Winner:Javid Basharat
• Method of Victory:Decision
• Confidence Score:70%
• Matchup Breakdown:Basharat's all-around skill set, particularly his striking accuracy and grappling, is likely to secure him a decision win against Zahabi.

Fight 9: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Claudio Ribeiro

• Predicted Winner:Christian Leroy Duncan
• Method of Victory:TKO/KO
• Predicted Round of Stoppage:Round 3
• Confidence Score:65%
• Matchup Breakdown:Duncan's reach and volume are anticipated to provide him the advantage in striking exchanges, potentially leading to a stoppage victory.

Fight 10: Ludovit Klein vs. AJ Cunningham

• Predicted Winner:Ludovit Klein
• Method of Victory:Decision
• Confidence Score:70%
• Matchup Breakdown:Klein's precision striking and potential for strategic grappling are expected to counter Cunningham's high-volume striking, leading to a decision win.

Fight 11: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Loik Radzhabov

• Predicted Winner:Loik Radzhabov
• Method of Victory:Decision
• Confidence Score:65%
• Matchup Breakdown:Radzhabov's grappling dominance and recent form are likely to challenge Al-Selwady's striking, with Radzhabov expected to control the fight through ground game and secure a decision win.

 

An abundance of sleeper agents on this card. A lot of odds followers are going to be broke come Saturday night. 

Face offs? What faceoffs? I anticipated them to take place on friday as usual.

@gliese58i 

yea I was referring to Friday.

I wanna see them size each other up. Does anyone know Bernardo's reach?

* Edited at 02.29.2024, 11:03 PM ET *

Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev
Shamil Gaziev, SUB, R1
Binary fight, is Jairzinho going to play the counter striking game and sit on the outside or march forward with hooks like a wild man like he did against Daukaus? I think Gaziev trains out of a smart enough gym to grapple here, which will make him -500. In saying that he's only beaten a fast food worker on the contender series and Buday, who arguably has the most fraudulent 4-0 record in the UFC from memory. I'll pick Gaziev but scary bet if he doesn't finish early.

Petrino vs. Pedro
Vitor Petrino, SUB, R3
Pedro could be live to win minutes early, I could see this quite low output early with pedro striking on the outside. Petrino lately has seemed to be quite patient on the feet and I don't think he will come rushing into range early. As the fight goes on I can see Petrino taking over, particularly using his newly developed ground game, where he tends to be more the bully then pure skill. Pedro can be tricky early with his BJJ but his cardio has never been fixed and fatigue makes cowards out of us all. Petrino late props appealing as well as Petrino Sub. I think Pedro is round 1 Ko/Bust and even that doesn't feel right because Vitor's chin is granite.

Perez vs. Mokaev
Muhammad Mokaev, SUB, R2
All this chat about Mokaev getting a title shot after this win is crazy to me and Pantoja will demolish him if that's the case. Aside from that I think he does get the win here but I'll be interested to see how he deals with Perez (Especially the calf kicks early). Perez seems to front load his gas-tank early so could get a bit hairy early for Mokaev but I think down the stretch Mokaev will break him. I don't think Perez's heart is in the game anymore so durability, gas-tank and will all big questions (Tapped to a face-crank last fight which is a bad look). Would like to see Mokaev mix in and bit of ground and pound in this fight once he does have control, just to seal rounds in the future. Fight ends in submission a great bet as both get themselves into awkward spots on the mat.

Nurmagomedov vs. Almakhan
Umar Nurmagomedov, SUB, R2
Bekzat goes pretty good, can see him winning fights in the UFC. However he's beaten jobbers on the regionals and this is too big of a step up. Prop betting umar is quite hard as he's patient and the feet and won't rush the submission if it goes to the mat. I think he wins by front choke and may be a bit more urgent, especially if he wants a big opponent next fight.

Schnell vs. Erceg
Steve Erceg, TKO, R3
Schnell has plenty of red flags being durability and also bad weight cut's which can go hand in hand. He's quite a dangerous fighter though and I can see him having success here between the check left hook counter (Erceg = No head movement) and also a grappling advantage. Watching Erceg's regional tape I don't think he's this amazing grappler that everyone thinks but he has several advantages on the feet here being mainly better cardio, better volume, durability upside and the ability to sit behind the jab of his. I can see it being semi-competitive but Erceg to win the moments through Schnell's suspect durabilty and win. Maybe re-review the pick after weigh in's because Schnell has bad weight cuts and Erceg is enormous for a flyweight himself.

To the point of Erceg not being a can crusher pre-UFC...

The records of his opponents going back to 2019:

4-1 (now 4-4)
7-5
2-0
12-4 (Shannon Ross - we all know how "good" his UFC run was)
5-4
12-7
1-5

Seems like cans to me for the most part. Obviously Dvorak is a really good UFC win though.

Erceg also has an amateur loss to Bondar. It was a while ago and he's obviously improved, so I wouldn't read anything into it.