UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Hill vs. Gomes
Denise Gomes, TKO, R3
gomes is the one to knock out hill.

Conejo Ruiz vs. Moura
Eduarda Moura, DEC
montserrat seems too tough to get finished by a newcomer but moura is gonna be a lot bigger than her.

Fernandes vs. Diakiese
Kauê Fernandes, TKO, R3
Diakiese's highlight reel is getting knocked out, don't care how good he is.

Fight #1: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis

Prediction: Jailton Almeida wins by Submission in Round 1.
Confidence: 70%

Almeida has a very high submission win percentage and is going against Lewis, who has been vulnerable on the ground in the past. Almeida's younger age, combined with a high significant strike per minute (SLpM) and a high takedown average, suggests he may control the fight pace. Lewis, while possessing knockout power, shows a less favorable strike defense, and the age factor may also play a role in his reflexes.

Fight #2: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby

Prediction: Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in Round 1.
Confidence: 75%

Bonfim's impeccable record and high submission rate, coupled with a 100% takedown accuracy, suggests he's a significant grappling threat. Dalby has a balanced record but doesn't excel in any particular area that would neutralize Bonfim's grappling prowess. The prediction of a submission victory for Bonfim in the first round indicates that the expectation is for Bonfim to assert his grappling dominance early. It suggests that once the fight gets to the ground, Bonfim will quickly transition to a dominant position and secure a submission before Dalby has a chance to settle into the fight or mount an effective defense. Bonfim’s strategy, pace, and technical prowess on the ground are anticipated to be the decisive factors in this matchup.

Fight #3: Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don'Tale Mayes

Prediction: Rodrigo Nascimento wins by Submission in Round 2. Confidence: 75%

Considering Nascimento has already submitted Mayes in the past, it's likely he'll enter the rematch with a psychological edge and a proven game plan. Mayes will need to show significant improvements in his ground defense to alter the outcome. Nascimento's ability to secure a submission previously suggests he may replicate his success if the fight goes to the ground again.

Fight #4: Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov

Prediction: Caio Borralho wins by Decision.
Confidence: 55%

This is a close matchup, but Borralho's higher striking defense and takedown defense could negate Magomedov's offense. Both have finishing capabilities, but it may come down to who can control the pace.  A likely chess match with both fighters vying for control of the pace. Borralho might use his footwork and striking defense to create openings for counters, while Magomedov will probably look to close distance and unleash combinations. The prediction leans toward Borralho by decision, indicating an expectation that his defensive acumen will allow him to outscore Magomedov on the judges' scorecards.

Fight #5: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan

Prediction: Rodolfo Vieira wins by Submission in Round 1.
Confidence: 80%

Vieira's high submission win percentage and Petrosyan's low takedown defense suggest that if Vieira can close the distance, he could secure a submission. Petrosyan has a striking advantage but may not be able to keep the fight standing.  The key to victory for Vieira will be to close the distance early, avoiding exchanges on the feet where Petrosyan has the advantage. Once Vieira manages to clinch or execute a successful takedown, his ability to transition to dominant positions and secure a submission is exceptional. Given these dynamics, Vieira’s chances of securing a submission are high, especially if he can bring the fight to the ground quickly before Petrosyan can inflict significant damage or tire him out with movement and striking.

Fight #6: Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel

Prediction: Ismael Bonfim wins by KO in Round 2.
Confidence: 60%

Bonfim has a higher striking accuracy and a solid striking defense. Pichel, the older fighter, may not keep up with Bonfim's pace. Both have KO power, but Bonfim's younger age and striking precision give him the edge. For Bonfim to succeed, he will need to employ a strategy that maximizes his striking efficiency while managing the energy and pace to avoid getting dragged into a gritty, protracted battle where Pichel could start to leverage his experience and tenacity. A focus on movement and keeping the fight at a range where Bonfim can use his superior striking while mitigating Pichel's wrestling attempts will be key.

Fight #7: Elves Brener vs. Kaynan Kruschewsky

Prediction: Elves Brener wins by Submission in Round 2.
Confidence: 60%

For Kruschewsky to emerge victorious, leveraging his reach to maintain distance and control the stand-up exchanges will be crucial. His diverse finish rate suggests he's comfortable wherever the fight goes, but given Brener's submission threat, Kruschewsky may opt to keep the fight standing and exploit Brener's striking defense vulnerabilities.  Also, given the short notice, his conditioning and weight cut process may play crucial roles in his performance.  Brener, in contrast, will likely aim to close the distance, potentially using his own strikes to set up takedown opportunities. His objective being to bring Kruschewsky to the mat, where he can utilize his submission skills.

Fight #8: Victor Hugo vs. Daniel Marcos

Prediction: Daniel Marcos wins by Decision.
Confidence: 55%

Marcos's experience and having already faced the pressure of high-level competition could play a significant role against a debuting fighter. Hugo, while debuting and potentially bringing in fresh talent and unpredictability, may have to overcome first-time jitters in the big league, which can affect performance. Marcos’s ability to withstand pressure and possibly use his experience to manage the fight rhythm could see him earning a decision if he can avoid Hugo's likely submission attempts.

Fight #9: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov

Prediction: Rinat Fakhretdinov wins by Decision.
Confidence: 60%

Fakhretdinov has an excellent strike differential and a very high takedown average. Dos Santos is a well-rounded fighter, but Fakhretdinov's pressure and takedown ability could dictate where the fight takes place. Fakhretdinov, will likely aim to impose his will by initiating takedowns and maintaining top control. His strategy might involve using his striking to close the distance and set up clinch scenarios or shoot for takedowns, then using his top game to wear dos Santos down, score points, and possibly look for submissions if opportunities present themselves.

Fight #10: Vitor Petrino vs. Modestas Bukauskas

Prediction: Vitor Petrino wins by KO in Round 3.
Confidence: 65%

Petrino has a high ITD (in the distance) win percentage and the stats show a good mix of striking and grappling. Bukauskas has shown vulnerability in the past, and Petrino may exploit that.  The key for Petrino will be to close the distance without absorbing significant damage and to unleash his power strikes effectively. For Bukauskas, a more measured approach, using his jab to maintain distance and setting up counters as Petrino comes in, might be his best strategy.

Fight #11: Angela Hill vs. Denise Gomes

Prediction: Denise Gomes wins by Decision.
Confidence: 60%

Both fighters will need to exhibit solid striking defense, but the outcome may hinge on who can impose their rhythm and whether Hill’s experience can outshine Gomes’ aggressive style. The prediction for Gomes to win by decision suggests that the matchmakers see her as having the edge in applying effective pressure and landing more significant strikes throughout the bout.

Fight #12: Eduarda Moura vs. Montserrat Conejo Ruiz

Prediction: Eduarda Moura wins by Submission in Round 1.
Confidence: 70%

Moura's high submission average and Conejo Ruiz's negative strike differential make it likely that Moura will take the fight to the ground and finish it.  The prediction favors Moura by submission in Round 1, suggesting that her grappling edge is expected to be significant enough to find an early finish. This outlook presumes that Moura will aggressively seek takedowns and that Ruiz may not have the necessary defense to prevent Moura from advancing to a submission-attempting position.

Fight #13: Kaue Fernandes vs. Marc Diakiese

Prediction: Kaue Fernandes wins by Decision.
Confidence: 57%
The prediction leans towards a decision victory for Fernandes based on his striking and BJJ background. If he can maintain his energy, defend against takedowns, and keep the fight at his preferred range, he may outpoint Diakiese. The confidence level acknowledges the possibility of Diakiese's experience playing a factor, as well as the potential for Fernandes' conditioning to be tested in the later rounds. 
 

* Edited at 11.01.2023, 7:41 PM ET *

We should have a tapology bet on Rah to be banned on each UFC card by: banned ITD (during live event) Dec ban (after fight card is over) or canceled (banned before the card even starts LMFAO).

Rah, if you're reading this, I know you mean well but your very strong opinions without any discipline leads you to getting pooped on by Greg and he has to lay the ban hammer on you. You can disagree with someone without being a moody mcbooty.

stop getting banned LMFAO

Also Armen's striking defense is scary. hands down by sides when throwing leg kicks or heavy strikes, 

if CLD actually threw some heavy straight punches. It could've been bad, but we figured out CLD doesn't throw punches.

* Edited at 11.01.2023, 9:27 PM ET *

The record for number of submissions in one event is 8, set on 8 June 2013 at UFC on Fuel TV:  Nogueira vs. Werdum.  

I have picked up 7 Submissions !

Yeah, I have 6 (Almeida, G. Bonfim, Nascimento, Vieira, Hugo, and Moura), but I could easily see more finishing with a sub.  I might enjoy seeing those even more than TKOs.  

Almeida, Bonfim, Nascimento, Borralho, Vieira, Brener, Moura !
Yeahh , who knows, everything is possible, at least we are hoping for a nice event... !?

Eh I'm kind of tired Vieira tbh. He was supposed to be a lot better than how he has performed and he's a little older now, so there isn't much room for improvement anymore. If his striking doesn't look significantly improved, I don't see him being in the UFC that much longer tbh. He literally got beat up by Brundage for a round and has only beaten the only UFC veteran that could possibly lose to Brundage. Petrosyan is a borderline top 15 talent w/ how shallow the middleweight division is while I don't think Vieira will ever win 2 in a row again

* Edited at 11.01.2023, 10:05 PM ET *

You will see

I mean the only concern that I have w/ Petrosyan is that he got knocked in less than 2 minutes by a dude that's now 8-5, and he's shown to have pretty bad wrestling. His submission defense is pretty good, but it's hard to believe that Vieira won't submit him if he can keep it on the ground for more than a minute. Fortunately for Petrosyan, Vieira wrestling is pretty average considering that everything else in the grappling department is elite. It is also important to note that Petrosyan is 3 inches taller which gives him a leverage advantage. As long as he been drilling takedown defense and perfecting basic techniques, Vieira should have a somewhat difficult time taking him down

* Edited at 11.01.2023, 10:22 PM ET *

Vieira has better TD Offence than the typical elite BJJ fighters we see in the UFC. He's athletic and strong as hell which helps but he is solid off the single leg entries. Petrosyan has struggled with explosive entries and mainly getting his hips sucked in, which again I think we see that happen again here. He survived with Caio on his back but the issue being Caio's more position over threatening submissions, whereas Vieira is going to look to pass through positions all while threatening submissions. In regards to size, Vieira being shorter benefits him here as getting underneath with his entries will be easier. I think Vieira definitely gets this down, likely in the first round, and I expect him to threaten passes to mount until we see Petrosyan either give his neck or setup the arm triangle. 

I don’t care about Petrosion getting knockout years ago because **** happen when you play face punching, In the UFC he look durable enough and I really doubt a Jiu-Jitsu fighter is the one to do it

But I’m sus about his takedown defence, 36% isn’t good agaist a Jiu-jitsu fighter, one takedown could be the end of the fight agaist Vierra

* Edited at 11.01.2023, 11:23 PM ET *

This year I made good money with strikers against overrated grapplers, Pinedo-Jenkins Kevin borjas - Dias. and Mederos-Isakov, the 3 of them were able to withstand the attacks and after their rivals got tired it was an amusement park, so I kept choosing Petrosyan who hit Rodolfo's head more than an African drum

Almeida vs. Lewis
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R1
Confidence: High | Bet: Almeida ML (Parlay) , Almedia R1 , R2 & R3 | When Almedia get Lewis on the ground it’s over, Lewis’s wrestling is almost Non existent vs Almeida’s . All Almedia has to do is get one takedown that’s it obviously Lewis will be Live in this fight he always is with his power & i wouldn’t be surprised if he came away with this But i feel Almeida is next level & Lewis’s hail mary KO won’t work against someone who’s actually good now

Bonfim vs. Dalby
Gabriel Bonfim, SUB, R1
Confidence: High | Bet: Bonfim ML (Parlay), Bonfim R1 & R2 | Gabriel is the more talented out of the Bonfim brothers but they’ll both win pretty easily. Bonfim is in a great spot this fight, Dalby has gotten taken down 7 times in his last 3 fights & Bonfim is gonna have a field day with his grappling here. I wouldn’t mind if Bonfim struck here too he has many paths to victory here, Dalby is a good fighter Bonfim is just on a different level here.

Nascimento vs. Mayes
Rodrigo Nascimento, TKO, R2
Confidence: Medium | Bet: Nasimento & Under 2.5 Rounds | Not sure why this Rematch is happening, Mayes is just older now & a bit worse Mayes has worked on his wrestling since their last matchup so i don’t think it’ll be the Same result. Nascimento will catch him this time due to Mayes’s bad cardio the only reason i’m not fully confident on Nascimento is that they are heavyweights & especially anything can happen .

Borralho vs. Magomedov
Caio Borralho, DEC
Confidence: High | Bet: Borralho Sub/Points | Borralho has Takendown or Dropped everyone he has faced in the UFC so far. His style can be a bit boring but he wins him fights. Abus has very questionable cardio after last fight, he will look better this fight but not good enough. Abus might win the first round if he don’t get takedown but if Abus gets Takdeown it’s almost nearly over Abus will use way too much energy trying to get up from Borralho’s takedowns.

Vieira vs. Petrosyan
Rodolfo Vieira, SUB, R2
Confidence: Low | Bet: Vieira Sub | Viera’s only path to victory here will be a sub & i think he will find it. Petrosyan isn’t the most dangerous fighter on the feet he does have volume & Petrosyan will be the far better striker in this matchup but Petrosyan can get taken down easily & Veira is gonna find success with the takedowns especially with his BJJ & wrestling, Vieira find a submission.

Vieira vs. Petrosyan
Armen Petrosyan, TKO, R3
Left hook

Bonfim vs. Pichel
Ismael Bonfim, TKO, R3
Body kick

@AscendantMMA 

Vieira TD offense is solid, but he's not great at chain wrestling. If he can't get a takedown, he usually breaks bc he knows if he puts too much energy into it, he won't be able to last past the 7-minute mark. I do remember that he has a good setup for the double leg tho. He doesn't always finish it tho and ends up going for that silly single leg against the fence which I'm not sure that will work against Petrosyan unless he can slickly trip him while doing it

Victor Hugo and Bukauskas upsets thank me later👍

@LiLSlaW 

what way?

He won't need to chain wrestle because once the balance of Petrosyan is gone, he's on his back and in Vieira's world.