UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Anton Turkalj to win by submission.
Singel play
Odds: 6,00
416kr

Back 2496SEK

Thats my play...

Tyson Pedro +3.5 -160



EDITTED (my dumbass put -3.5)

* Edited at 09.09.2023, 5:55 AM ET *

I put some money on Miranda by first rd sub, but I'm still gonna go ahead and put some money on Shane over 1.5 and by decision.

@ScullyBully 

the goal of ufc about that fight is the Australian guy Tyson to win by finish or atleast dec, betting against the interest of ufc and a home guy is really brave decision but if you looking for a value prop bet Miranda by sub or Mullarkey by ko is worth the risk more

The prelims for this event will be on ESPN News.

Some bets I think are worth investing in:

Kevin Jousset ML(-160):

Hear me out: The last time a favorite lost on the opening of a UFC card was June 03 (Lins vs Grishin). Since then, the betting favorite has won every opening fight on the last 13 cards. Statistically, it just makes sense to throw Jousset onto a parlay. He's just got so many advantages in this fight, on top of him being the hometown fighter. I'm sure it'll backfire this time now that I've spoken it into existence, but I predict the curtain jerking favorites to make it 14-0.

Jamie Mullarkey & Over 1.5 RDs[Same Game Parlay](-134):

Since getting finished in the first round by Lando Vanatta back in 2016, John Makdessi has gone the distance in every single one of his fights. Jamie Mullarkey has gone past the 1.5 rd mark in 6 of his 8 octagon appearances.

Makdessi has never been known for his power, and is more comfortable at range on the back foot. Mullarkey has the bigger finishing threat in this fight, but he's also not a particularly heavy handed guy and he's fighting a guy who doesn't really like to exchange big shots. Mullarkey's only knockout wins in the UFC came against Devonte Smith and Khama Worthy, two guys who are way more hittable than a technician like Makdessi. Ring rust, age and attrition are all factors for Makdessi's chin and durability, but he's only been KO'd twice in a 26-fight career.

The main risk is Mullarkey finding a stoppage early, but like I said, he really doesn't finish guys who aren't willing to give him the exchanges he needs to find those big knockdowns. I don't see Mullarkey finishing him, at least not early, so if you're looking to juice up a parlay, this is a good value for what the data shows.

Jack Jenkins & Over 1.5 Rds[Same Game Parlay](-105):

Jack Jenkins is a methodical fighter who has gone over 1.5 rds six times in his last nine fights. He's gone the distance in all of his UFC appearances thus far, and even as far as stoppages go, five of his eight finishes came after the first round. Mariscal carries a more potent finishing upside, but only seems to stop lower level guys. Similarly, Mariscal has quite a few finishes that came after the first round.

Really, I don't think either man can finish the other early. They both can finish fights, and early, but both almost exclusively do it against lower level opposition. Mariscal will have a better shot of finishing early, but Jenkins will probably be out of range for most of the first round. Jenkins probably won't get an early finish simply because it's not in his playbook. I don't see Mariscal getting stopped late, as he's historically been able to go the distance unless his opponent can stop him early. Mariscal's only finish losses came against Joanderson Brito, Steve Garcia and Gregor Gillespie; all big, powerful guys who have much more physical styles than Jenkins.

Jenkins' path to victory is likely finding his range, mixing in volume with some form of wrestling control, and stifling the movement of Mariscal with low kicks. That's a recipe for a late stoppage or a decision. I'm pretty confident that the fight plays out very similar to this. Mariscal thrived in the chaos that Trevor Peek brought to the cage, but I don't think Jack Jenkins will be giving him all of the opportunities to counter and scramble. Another pretty solid value that's worth looking into, if it's available.

Okay, well, that's all I've really got. Feel free to laugh at me when these blow up in my face.

Anyway at all Strickland can last all five? **** I want him to win but I’m realistic…

Israel is easy work on Sean. And Jenkins by ko, breaks his leg and hammer fists him to death. ☠️

Which bets are you liking the most for this weekend? Loving Ulberg by KO/TKO personally

Full UFC 293 Picks, Predictions & Betting Card for those interested: https://oddsmokermma.com/2023/09/09/ufc-293-adesanya-vs-strickland-picks-predictions-betting-card/

On paper, Adesanya is superior in almost every aspect and wins 9 times out of 10 against Strickland. That being said, tonight is that 1 out 10 that Strickland pulls it off for one of the greatest upsets in UFC history.

I got two words for ya… 

PLEASURE… MAN!!!!!!!!!
💦💦💦💦💦💦💦💦

MMA Gods already gave us Sean O'Malley upset, it's time for Adesanya to return us back to the normal

There's a boost on Izzy to +100 because this card is pretty lackluster on paper. They're trying to get people on the fence to at least make that minimum $25 deposit who think "oh ok no brainer, free $25 cause Izzy will win".

There entire game is just to get you to open the app. Before you know it you've placed other bets on other fighters even though you were only planning on betting on Izzy. A good percentage of people will lose that $25 or more on the rest of the card.

Izzy only got 5 Ko in the UFC and has a Ko percentage in the UFC of 38%, Strickland going 5 isn’t crazy as Izzy can knock people out, but he’s go to decsion in a majority  of his fight 

Jousset vs. Crosbie
Kevin Jousset, DEC
Can't pick anyone who lost to Mike Jackson

Adesanya vs. Strickland
Israel Adesanya, TKO, R2
I have to pick Izzy here cause I don't see a path to victory for Sean but I hope there's an upset. Izzy is probably gonna finish him with a counter shot. Sean will walk forward like a maniac.

Tuivasa vs. Volkov
Alexander Volkov, TKO, R1
I think Volkov finishes Tai with a counter shot but this is gonna be a crazy fight. Tuivasa is live though cause he's gonna come in swinging like crazy.

Kape vs. dos Santos
Manel Kape, TKO, R2
Kape is gonna finish dos Santos but Santos is a beast. Gonna be a great fight.

Tafa vs. Lane
Justin Tafa, TKO, R1
First round knockout for Tafa coming. Lane is nowhere close to UFC caliber.

Pedro vs. Turkalj
Anton Turkalj, DEC
Turkalj is gonna wrestle Pedro once he gassed out and just keep doing that for 3 rounds. Pedro is live in round 1 but he's gonna gas hard.

Ulberg vs. Jung
Da Un Jung, TKO, R3
Jung will survive the early onslaught and then finish Ulberg. I think Jung is better everywhere besides the striking but he can mix it up a bit and win once Ulberg gasses.

Jenkins vs. Mariscal
Chepe Mariscal, TKO, R1
Chepe is a dog and he's gonna win this one. He's going to break Jenkins at some point. If you can break Peek, you can break Jenkins.

Mullarkey vs. Makdessi
John Makdessi, DEC
I'll never pick Mullarkey to win again after his last embarrassing performance as a huge favorite.

Mathetha vs. Radtke
Charles Radtke, SUB, R2
Radtke isn't very good but Blood Diamond has no takedown defense. He's gonna get subbed. If he can stuff a takedown, he can win this, but he won't.

Young vs. Miranda
Gabriel Miranda, SUB, R1
Miranda is gonna go for it and get an early sub before he gassed out. He's not very good but Shane Young is absolutely terrible and I'll never back him.

Jousset vs. Crosbie
Kevin Jousset, DEC
Gonna take Jousset to win here. Should be a really close fight. This card is a mess and if it wasn't for cancelations these guys wouldn't even be on it.

Tafa vs. Lane
Justin Tafa, TKO, R1
I'll

Mathetha vs. Radtke
Charles Radtke, SUB, R1
Use

Jousset vs. Crosbie
Kevin Jousset
I'm