Topic: UFC 291

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2

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Tapology
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05.13.2023 | 11:40 AM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC 291
  • Saturday 07.29.2023 at 07:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: Pay Per View | Prelims: ABC
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: Vivint Arena
  • Location: Salt Lake City, Utah, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: Jon Anik, Joe Rogan, Daniel Cormier
  • Ring Announcer: Bruce Buffer
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Joe Rogan
  • Ticket Revenue (live gate): $6,556,444
  • Attendance: 18,467
  • MMA Bouts: 11
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
Justin Gaethje   defeats   Dustin Poirier   via KO/TKO, Head Kick   1:00 Round 2 of 5, 6:00 Total Bout Page
Alex Pereira   defeats   Jan Błachowicz   via Decision, Split   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Derrick Lewis   defeats   Marcos Rogério de Lima   via KO/TKO, Flying Knee to Ground Strikes   0:33 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Bobby Green   defeats   Tony Ferguson   via Submission, Arm Triangle Choke   4:54 Round 3 of 3, 14:54 Total Bout Page
Kevin Holland   defeats   Michael Chiesa   via Submission, D'arce Choke   2:39 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Gabriel Bonfim   defeats   Trevin Giles   via Submission, Guillotine Choke   1:13 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
CJ Vergara   defeats   Vinicius Salvador   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Roman Kopylov   defeats   Claudio Ribeiro   via KO/TKO, Head Kick   0:33 Round 2 of 3, 5:33 Total Bout Page
Jake Matthews   defeats   Darrius Flowers   via Submission, Rear Naked Choke   2:37 Round 2 of 3, 7:37 Total Bout Page
Uros Medic   defeats   Matthew Semelsberger   via KO/TKO, Spinning Backfist to Ground Strikes   2:36 Round 3 of 3, 12:36 Total Bout Page
Miranda Maverick   defeats   Priscila Cachoeira   via Submission, Armbar   2:11 Round 3 of 3, 12:11 Total Bout Page

Responses Page 39

paulopasta
paulopasta

07.29.2023 | 4:12 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 530 Points   |   Tied for 1742nd

Poirier vs. Gaethje II
Dustin Poirier, TKO, R5
This is gonna be an easy FOTY contender. Gaethje has been the man who has improved heavily between the two of them. He’s turned his brawling, try to break your will style of fighting into a much more refined and defensively responsible version. As crazy as this sounds, I think this will benefit Dustin to a certain extent. The way Gaethje just ate shots to tear apart Justin’s leg was wearing on Dustin. The amount of damage he’d taken caught up with him tho. He was winning up until that point but he had to sacrifice his body. I think it being a slightly more reserved pace from Gaethje will absolutely help Poirier. I see it being a more technical version of their first fight. By the end of the 4th I think Gaethje will have been wearing it more and in the 5th Poiriers power edge will be too much and he will end the fight. It will be tough to see either man lose tho

Lewis vs. Rogério de Lima
Derrick Lewis, TKO, R2
This is one I’ve gone back and forth on. Ultimately I’ve landed on Derrick. And I know it sounds crazy but I’m doing this because I think De Lima will be dead tired by the end of the 1st round. Derrick will be tired as well but to a lesser extent. I think Derrick is at the end of the road but I see him ending this fight in the late 2nd round with a ground n pound TKO

Ferguson vs. Green
Bobby Green, TKO, R2
This is becoming hard to watch with Tony. He continues to fight even tho it’s clear he’s done. He has nothing left. That Diaz fight was all I needed to see. Bobby has been doing his thing for the most part. His last fight wasn’t impressive but I think the result would have been the same. I see this being like the Iaquinta fight but it will go on longer because Tony will take more damage and won’t go down. I hope he retires after this one

Chiesa vs. Holland
Michael Chiesa, DEC
I may get **** on for this, but I don’t trust Holland here. This seems like a trap game. Holland against wrestling is already bad but a good one like Chiesa is just gonna take that deficiency and expose it even more. Now Holland could sub him with a front choke because that’s always been a problem of Chiesa’s but I don’t see it going like that. I’ll take Chiesa for the lay and pray decision

Tapleaf
Tapleaf
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07.29.2023 | 4:12 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 8 Winners, 0 Perfect, 350 Points   |   Tied for 4753rd

Yo serious question, why do you guys think that Semelsberger only opened in the -120 to -140 range against Uros Medic?

Isn't that sus af? The guy sparked Jake Matthews and Jeremiah Wells.
Blackbet25
Blackbet25
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07.29.2023 | 4:20 PM ET

Predictions: 10 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 670 Points   |   Tied for 130th

He’s coming off a loss to Wells. Medic is coming off a stoppage win.

"They don’t want a man like me to have the title cause I’m not a puppet like that fool up there."

gliese58i
gliese58i
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07.29.2023 | 4:25 PM ET

@Tapleaf

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 485 Points   |   Tied for 2604th

Bookies being sharper than the general market in this case.

"She’ll go there and smash her. She’ll get a title shot, become a UFC champion. We have a Ronda Rousey on steroids. This is what we have.” - Ali Abdelaziz on Kayla Harrison

Joshjeffords
Joshjeffords
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07.29.2023 | 4:25 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 515 Points   |   Tied for 1989th

No idea he should be 2.5-3 to 1 this is not a boxing match lol, Meds is getting smashed real bad you hurd it hear!

"“I took no damage,” Hill said. “Most of the fall was me falling down"

Blackbet25
Blackbet25
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07.29.2023 | 4:26 PM ET

Predictions: 10 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 670 Points   |   Tied for 130th

To be fair though, he’s still rightfully the favorite. Has more experience than Medic and is more well rounded… Medic has all knock outs but if he can’t get it he’s at a disadvantage in every other area.

"They don’t want a man like me to have the title cause I’m not a puppet like that fool up there."

gliese58i
gliese58i
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07.29.2023 | 4:31 PM ET

@Blackbet25

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 485 Points   |   Tied for 2604th

Yes but the line was around accurate then, now it's wide. Also I haven't really seen Semi do anything grappling-wise but you may have more information than me in this area. To me both are strikers, Medic is the more skilled one. Semi is obviously used to the weight class and not on a short notice and has more and better experience in MMA.

* Edited at 07.29.2023, 4:32 PM ET *

"She’ll go there and smash her. She’ll get a title shot, become a UFC champion. We have a Ronda Rousey on steroids. This is what we have.” - Ali Abdelaziz on Kayla Harrison

Blackbet25
Blackbet25
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07.29.2023 | 4:36 PM ET

@gliese58i

Predictions: 10 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 670 Points   |   Tied for 130th

I hear you bro, I never really expect to get accurate odds from the bookies though. Plus Semi has more name value with the general consensus than Medic. 

Add to that, Medic is basically pure striker, Semi has shown the ability to mix up his weapons at times.

* Edited at 07.29.2023, 4:39 PM ET *

"They don’t want a man like me to have the title cause I’m not a puppet like that fool up there."

shaneb90
shaneb90
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07.29.2023 | 4:40 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 510 Points   |   Tied for 2082nd

I have a strong feeling medic makes him look silly 
Tjl0106
Tjl0106
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07.29.2023 | 4:41 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 5 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 330 Points   |   Tied for 5015th

Poirier vs. Gaethje II
Justin Gaethje, TKO, R1
This is a really good fight especially for people who watched the first fight. Gaethje has developed so much from a brawler to a really good striker who might be the best leg kicker in the UFC. Poirier is a good grappler and an exciting striker but is starting to fade as we saw in the Olives fight. Age is undefeated in the UFC. Gaethje uses his leg kicks and striking to overwhelm Dustin into crumbling onto the ground and losing via TKO in the first.

Błachowicz vs. Pereira
Jan Błachowicz, TKO, R2
Pereira has 0 ground game. Jan wins by ground and pound TKO. Might be an early stoppage.

Lewis vs. Rogério de Lima
Marcos Rogério de Lima, TKO, R2
Lewis’ strategy does not work anymore with all these new technical strikers in the HW division like Gane and Aspinall. Pezao makes Lewis look easy by winning a dominant round 2 TKO.

Ferguson vs. Green
Tony Ferguson, DEC
I think El Cucuy has one more win left in him. Especially because he’s facing a striker in Green. Ferguson grinds out a majority decision win and then leaves his gloves in the cage.

Chiesa vs. Holland
Michael Chiesa, DEC
I have no idea how Holland is the favorite. He has spotty takedown defense and doesn’t have a good bottom game (which was presented in the Vettori and Brunson fights). Chiesa should wear down Holland to a UD win.

Vergara vs. Salvador
CJ Vergara, TKO, R2
Vergara is a tank and has a great chin. He could be the future at flyweight if he can work a bit on his ground game. I think he catches Salvador in an exchange in Round 2.

Kopylov vs. Ribeiro
Roman Kopylov, TKO, R2
Kopylov is a really good volume striker and Ribeiro doesn’t have a good gas tank. I think Kopylov wins via standing TKO late in round 2.

Matthews vs. Flowers
Jake Matthews, SUB, R1
I don’t like Flowers. He has beaten some good competition but also has lost to total cans. He has good power but not a great ground game which is why I think Matthews will submit him.

Semelsberger vs. Medic
Matthew Semelsberger, TKO, R2
Medic gets chinned after a competitive first round.

Maverick vs. Cachoeira
Miranda Maverick, DEC
Maverick has been working on her striking and will probably exploit Cachoeira’s weaknesses on the mat. Cachoeira has a punchers chance and that’s it.

"I kind of try to focus on the moment, in the present. That’s humility. That’s being humble. That’s not setting no expectation. That’s going out there, enjoying the game, competing at a high level.” - Giannis Antetokounmpo"

Blackbet25
Blackbet25
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07.29.2023 | 4:45 PM ET

@Shaneb90

Predictions: 10 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 670 Points   |   Tied for 130th

Good plus money to be made if you’re right… I don’t see it happening (like that) personally but mma is a hotbed for the unexpected.

* Edited at 07.29.2023, 4:47 PM ET *

"They don’t want a man like me to have the title cause I’m not a puppet like that fool up there."

houdini199x
houdini199x
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07.29.2023 | 4:46 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 530 Points   |   Tied for 1690th

Every favorite seems solid. Pereira lets go! 😎

"High risk is high adrenaline. ..."

gliese58i
gliese58i
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07.29.2023 | 4:47 PM ET

@Blackbet25

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 485 Points   |   Tied for 2604th

Yeah for sure bookies can be as hit or miss as the general market. They have better cappers on average but obviously there's a lot fewer of them so there is less wisdom of the crowd (which can equally be delusions of the crowd at times). Also setting lines earlier means less time to gather information and doing it based on more dated information. I don't have much direct insight in how they work but I would imagine it is also more statistics-based than some sharp bettors for better or for worse. You need to point to something tangible if you **** up with the line after all and the boss comes calling. Hell maybe it's half AI at this point who knows?
I just think in this case it was closer to accurate before the general market got involved.

"She’ll go there and smash her. She’ll get a title shot, become a UFC champion. We have a Ronda Rousey on steroids. This is what we have.” - Ali Abdelaziz on Kayla Harrison

Blackbet25
Blackbet25
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07.29.2023 | 4:50 PM ET

@gliese58i

Predictions: 10 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 670 Points   |   Tied for 130th

Fair points, we’ll get to see how accurate they are or aren’t shortly.

"They don’t want a man like me to have the title cause I’m not a puppet like that fool up there."

ModestMan
ModestMan
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07.29.2023 | 5:03 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 3 of 4 Winners, 0 Perfect, 165 Points   |   Tied for 5826th

Maverick vs. Cachoeira
Miranda Maverick, DEC
Cachoeira will win cause WMMA

"WMMA = 50/50 no matter the odds"

TWJake
TWJake
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07.29.2023 | 5:04 PM ET

UFC 291: Face the Pain (Updated)



"I know many a troops that I visit when I went to Iraq in 2005... 2-uh excuse me in 19-or.. 05' 06' 07' 08' 09' 2010 2011. I went from the Korwaiten border! All the way up to the Turkish border!" -Tito Ortiz

Dumb Moron
Dumb Moron
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07.29.2023 | 5:08 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 380 Points   |   Tied for 4438th

Vergara vs. Salvador
Vinicius Salvador, DEC
yolo

Semelsberger vs. Medic
Matthew Semelsberger, DEC
yolo

Maverick vs. Cachoeira
Priscila Cachoeira, SUB, R3
yolo

foppa420
foppa420
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07.29.2023 | 5:15 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 560 Points   |   Tied for 1091st

I could see Medic making a good showing of himself. He has very good output and his striking is pretty diverse. I think Semi is just a little too well rounded at this point and has proven himself against some really good competition in the UFC so far.

I wish he'd just change his nickname to "Semi" because his current nickname is pretty bad and he legitimately does hit like a truck. I think he has 5 knockdowns alone in just his last 2 fights. 
el222
el222
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07.29.2023 | 5:38 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 505 Points   |   Tied for 2246th

really surprised Pereira has flipped to the favorite (at least on DK). don't agree with that 
paulopasta
paulopasta

07.29.2023 | 5:58 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 530 Points   |   Tied for 1742nd

Vergara vs. Salvador
CJ Vergara, TKO, R3
This is gonna be a sick fight. Low level but super entertaining. Salvador is what I’d consider a meme fighter. He does absolutely everything wrong. No wrestling or grappling to speak of, poor cardio and absolutely 0 striking defense. Vergara is definitely not amazing and has his flaws as well but he has a few things. Heart, cardio and the ability to break people. I think with the weight miss combined with a frantic 1st round will leave Salvador dead tired. I think CJ gets a TKO finish in the 3rd. Mainly due to accumulation of damage and exhaustion

Kopylov vs. Ribeiro
Roman Kopylov, TKO, R2
Surprised Kopylov is only -200 here. Kopylov had a rough start to his ufc career but in his last 2 he’s looked improved everywhere. Albeit not against amazing competition, but I think he beats both guys he lost to now. He’s got a solid jab, good combinations and some really good durability. His cardio has also improved. Riberio is someone I do not rate highly. He can beat the lower end of 185ers but nothing past that. He’s got power but that’s it. Every other skill is lacking. I think Kopylov makes it look easy here

Matthews vs. Flowers
Jake Matthews, SUB, R2
This is a tough one in that way that, Matthews should win. It’s just hard to say how he’s gonna win. Flowers has been finished in all of his losses but Matthews couldn’t finish old Diego Sanchez so it’s hard to say. I’ll go with sub here as it is most likely imo

Semelsberger vs. Medic
Matthew Semelsberger, TKO, R1
Banger here. Uros at 170 is interesting but I don’t think he’ll be able to handle the power Semelsburger carries. Especially if he doesn’t grapple which he most definitely won’t as he is a pure striker

Maverick vs. Cachoeira
Miranda Maverick, SUB, R3
Maverick has **** the bed as of late. She is as unimpressive as they come. However she should win by using grappling but if she doesn’t she could blow it

Page 39


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