Topic: UFC 291

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2

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Tapology
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05.13.2023 | 11:40 AM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC 291
  • Saturday 07.29.2023 at 07:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: Pay Per View | Prelims: ABC
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: Vivint Arena
  • Location: Salt Lake City, Utah, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: Jon Anik, Joe Rogan, Daniel Cormier
  • Ring Announcer: Bruce Buffer
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Joe Rogan
  • Ticket Revenue (live gate): $6,556,444
  • Attendance: 18,467
  • MMA Bouts: 11
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
Justin Gaethje   defeats   Dustin Poirier   via KO/TKO, Head Kick   1:00 Round 2 of 5, 6:00 Total Bout Page
Alex Pereira   defeats   Jan Błachowicz   via Decision, Split   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Derrick Lewis   defeats   Marcos Rogério de Lima   via KO/TKO, Flying Knee to Ground Strikes   0:33 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Bobby Green   defeats   Tony Ferguson   via Submission, Arm Triangle Choke   4:54 Round 3 of 3, 14:54 Total Bout Page
Kevin Holland   defeats   Michael Chiesa   via Submission, D'arce Choke   2:39 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Gabriel Bonfim   defeats   Trevin Giles   via Submission, Guillotine Choke   1:13 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
CJ Vergara   defeats   Vinicius Salvador   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Roman Kopylov   defeats   Claudio Ribeiro   via KO/TKO, Head Kick   0:33 Round 2 of 3, 5:33 Total Bout Page
Jake Matthews   defeats   Darrius Flowers   via Submission, Rear Naked Choke   2:37 Round 2 of 3, 7:37 Total Bout Page
Uros Medic   defeats   Matthew Semelsberger   via KO/TKO, Spinning Backfist to Ground Strikes   2:36 Round 3 of 3, 12:36 Total Bout Page
Miranda Maverick   defeats   Priscila Cachoeira   via Submission, Armbar   2:11 Round 3 of 3, 12:11 Total Bout Page

Responses Page 38

broccoliman
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07.29.2023 | 12:40 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 570 Points   |   Tied for 926th

I'm pretty sure Leon Edwards did the same thing and he still gassed in like a round and a half
Lisac
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07.29.2023 | 12:47 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 620 Points   |   Tied for 401st

It was a wrestling heavy fight though and Leon has nowhere near the output of Dustin in general, Dustin definitely more used to high paced firefights 
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CheckLeftHook
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07.29.2023 | 12:51 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 460 Points   |   Tied for 3079th

lol Pereira had so many posts on his Instagram about UFC 291 and now he just gets to watch from the crowd 

"🏴 No Quarter Given 🏴"

foppa420
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07.29.2023 | 1:00 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 560 Points   |   Tied for 1091st

I dont know how much adjusting to a higher altitude will matter after only a few weeks when you're fighting a guy who lives and trains at an even higher altitude all the time.

Lisac
Lisac
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07.29.2023 | 1:10 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 620 Points   |   Tied for 401st

Dustin has great cardio, once your body gets accustomed to the altitude its still your cardio, has nothing to do with the air you breathe or if you exercise there but the level of oxygenation of blood depending on how acclimatized your body is to the current atmospheric pressure.

I don't think either guy will gas out here unless they both go crazy due to beating each other to a pulp even harder then last time.
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gliese58i
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07.29.2023 | 1:24 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 485 Points   |   Tied for 2604th

Salt Lake isn't the worst place to fight either in terms of altitude, it's not even close to Mexico City for example.

"She’ll go there and smash her. She’ll get a title shot, become a UFC champion. We have a Ronda Rousey on steroids. This is what we have.” - Ali Abdelaziz on Kayla Harrison

Gregory
Gregory
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07.29.2023 | 1:25 PM ET

@Andrew1047 
correct and removed, regarding the forum quote 

"I live, I die, I live again."

Mothswords
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07.29.2023 | 1:35 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 4 Perfect, 605 Points   |   Tied for 587th

I think for my parlay I'll go
Pereira
De Lima
Green
Bonfim
Vergara 
Kopylov
Matthews
Semelsberger 
Squeakypuff
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07.29.2023 | 1:37 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 465 Points   |   Tied for 3054th

I can't choose between Chiesa and Holland. I simply can't choose. This is an intolerable situation. Both are goofballs in their own way but good fighters. Holland is dangerous but Chiesa is big with wrestling. I hate this. I'm leaning towards Chiesa (or maybe Holland.) 

"I'll make my own damn quote." -Me

Squeakypuff
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07.29.2023 | 1:38 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 465 Points   |   Tied for 3054th

@Squeakypuff 
Actually I'm taking Holland (but maybe Chiesa.) 

"I'll make my own damn quote." -Me

Chrisoligy
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07.29.2023 | 1:42 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 580 Points   |   Tied for 851st

Poirier vs. Gaethje II
Justin Gaethje, TKO, R2
i think Justin is just hungry , he has improved alot, i think hes just one of them fighters that need to lose to get better. hes like goku

Błachowicz vs. Pereira
Jan Błachowicz, SUB, R2
Jan is more exp , smaller fighter he could get bonked, but im not willing to predict a fight based on a punchers chance, he he the better defensive fighter and wrestler.

Lewis vs. Rogério de Lima
Derrick Lewis, TKO, R2
The new mythical fighter is born, lewis with abs , and we will see a unicorn out there today

Ferguson vs. Green
Bobby Green, DEC
its a retirement fight , green should win this easy , but i wouldn't bet it

Chiesa vs. Holland
Michael Chiesa, DEC
dont bet this fight, but either way someone getting subbed or its going to the cards, i think chiesa is better on the ground and i dont think holland is knocking him out.

Giles vs. Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim
the public knows how this fight goes , so expect a robbery if it hits the cards

Vergara vs. Salvador
CJ Vergara, TKO, R2
salvador looked like crap on the scales , hes gonna die in there after rnd 1, i pick vergara ko in later rnds

Kopylov vs. Ribeiro
Roman Kopylov, TKO, R2
roman is in danger rnd 1, fight will flip and he could get him out in rnds 2 or 3 , ribero will gas eventually

Matthews vs. Flowers
Jake Matthews, SUB, R2
i think flowers will gas after rnd 1 , i see a late finish from jake if he survives rnd 1, or a dec

Semelsberger vs. Medic
Matthew Semelsberger, TKO, R2
matt has ko power and a decent gastank, medic is a gasser , and i think he gasses in this fight .

Maverick vs. Cachoeira
Miranda Maverick, SUB, R2
priscila is a massive size , but she has zero td defense. miranda better not stand and bang with her , and keep taking her down , can sub her rnd 2 or 3 or coast to a dec

foppa420
foppa420
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07.29.2023 | 2:01 PM ET

@Lisac

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 560 Points   |   Tied for 1091st

The last sentence of your post is the key for me. Cardio can be greatly effected by stress (damage). 

You're absolutely correct that a high level athlete typically needs around 2-3 weeks to adjust to higher altitude and that Poirier has historically great cardio. However, in a fight that I see as razor close, I simply can't ignore the fact that Gaethje lives and breathes at an elevation thats +2500ft above what Dustin just adjusted himself too.

I could potentially see it making a difference in the 4th and 5th rounds if the fight goes that far. Gaethje dropped the first 2 rounds in their first meeting but started to pull away in the 3rd before stalling his own momentum with an eye poke. 
Joshjeffords
Joshjeffords
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07.29.2023 | 2:03 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 515 Points   |   Tied for 1989th

This could indeed be another butthead eye gouge athon oil check junk knee apalooza.
Dustin pretty much always kills anyone who fouls him though, even got revenge for sneaky back of head ko vs Conmac.

"“I took no damage,” Hill said. “Most of the fall was me falling down"

foppa420
foppa420
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07.29.2023 | 2:04 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 560 Points   |   Tied for 1091st

Not sure if anyone saw what Chandler had to say about the main event, but I thought it was interesting.

He said that between the two of them, Poirier hits harder. He said every time Poirier hit him, it was a "thud". Gaethje is more death by a thousand cuts. He thinks Gaethje is just a bit faster and that if he paces himself, he will win a decision.

While I guess I could see this fight going the distance, I think somebody's going down again in rounds 4 or 5. Poirier and Gaethje are as violent as it gets. 
Lisac
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07.29.2023 | 2:07 PM ET

@foppa

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 620 Points   |   Tied for 401st

I think Dustin just has 'heavier' hands but Gaethje definitely more explosive, one TKOs people and the other KOs them unconscious. 
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Nick Valentine
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07.29.2023 | 2:25 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 490 Points   |   Tied for 2525th





"There really is no way to ride a seesaw with dignity"

kuya5000
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07.29.2023 | 2:34 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 4 of 10 Winners, 1 Perfect, 265 Points   |   Tied for 5460th

Poirier vs. Gaethje II
Dustin Poirier, SUB, R3
i don't think gaethje has improved as much as people have said he has, at least not enough to beat dustin. gaethje's path to victory is narrower than dustins in that he has to beat dustin on the feet and it's clear he's coming in with the leg kicks. dustin had him hurt multiple times in that aspect their last encounter, and if it's anyone at lightweight or the ufc for that matter dustin is the guy that can stay calm in a storm. if i were to guess what could happen i'd say dustin shows him takedowns just to keep him questioning, and counters the leg kicks with checks and perhaps single leg takedowns at some point to lead to subs or at the least a dominant position on the ground

Błachowicz vs. Pereira
Jan Błachowicz, DEC
i can see it going both ways, but jan is a damaging mf. i think a lot of people are forgetting what he did to people like dominick reyes. i was also pleasantly surprised how he held his own against izzy in the standup and proceeded to secure the victory on the ground, i wouldn't be surprised if he follows a similar game plan coming in to fight pereira. my prediction is if he ends up getting hurt and in a bad spot he'll move it to the ground at will

Lewis vs. Rogério de Lima
Marcos Rogério de Lima, SUB, R1
de lima fight IQ going to be the ultimate factor in this, i think it'll be an easy quick W if he goes straight for the submission and we've seen that tried and proven by daniel cormier and spivak. the fairly recent R1 sub W de lima got over arlovski gives me hope

Ferguson vs. Green
Tony Ferguson, SUB, R3
people forgot el cucuy actually dropped chandler for a second because of the highlight front kick knockout, but i think tony is far from over and will surprise a lot of casuals who just look at the record without watching the fight. he's only lost to top guys and his experience will be in his favor fighting bobby

Chiesa vs. Holland
Michael Chiesa, DEC
holland fight IQ + chiesa wrestle**** is a chiesa W by decision if i were to guess, but holland is a toss up and i can see him KO'ing him in some unexpected way like how he did souza


* Edited at 07.29.2023, 2:55 PM ET *

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Joshjeffords
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07.29.2023 | 3:22 PM ET

Polska Guram!

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 515 Points   |   Tied for 1989th

"“I took no damage,” Hill said. “Most of the fall was me falling down"

el222
el222
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07.29.2023 | 3:29 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 505 Points   |   Tied for 2246th



SolarCowboy
SolarCowboy
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07.29.2023 | 4:04 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 3 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 230 Points   |   Tied for 5653rd

Poirier vs. Gaethje II
Justin Gaethje, TKO, R5
Justin Gaethje +135 1 unit Gaethje/Poirier over 2.5 rounds -135 2 units Gaethje wins in round 4 +2000 .25 units Gaethje wins in round 5 +2500 .25 units

Błachowicz vs. Pereira
Jan Błachowicz, TKO, R2
Jan Blachowicz wins by KO/TKO +365 .5 units

Lewis vs. Rogério de Lima
Marcos Rogério de Lima, DEC
De Lima/Lewis fight goes to decision +350 .25 units Marcos Rogerio De Lima wins by decision +500 .25 units

Vergara vs. Salvador
Vinicius Salvador, TKO, R1
1 unit bet on Vinicius Salvador 2 unit bet on Salvador/Vergara under 2.5 rounds -175

Kopylov vs. Ribeiro
Claudio Ribeiro, TKO, R1
.5 unit bet on Claudio Ribeiro +205 Pick: Claudio Ribeiro KO/TKO R

Matthews vs. Flowers
Darrius Flowers, DEC
Darius Flowers +350 .5 unit

Semelsberger vs. Medic
Matthew Semelsberger, TKO, R2
Pick: Matthew Semelsberger KO/TKO R1 Potential Bet: 1.5 unit bet on Matthew Semelsberger -142

"Complicated Human in Search of Simplicity"

Page 38


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